drosestruts wrote:Good extensions:
- Coby
- Ayo
- Ball
Bad extensions:
- Vuc
- Williams (i'd say TBD, but year one's been bad for sure)
- LaVine (I put him here not because I personally think it was bad but just what I believe others would rank it as on a binary good/bad scale)
So really 50/50 at worst.
It's also different to separate out the value of the extension vs the expected value of the extension. Coby White 9.7 points per game when we extended him and 19.1 and 18 the next two years. Coby proved worth it, but his extension was quite expensive relative to his production.
It's notable because Coby had previously declined in per 36 scoring each year in the league from 18.5 to 14.9 over those four years then went back up to 18.9 setting a career high, so this wasn't just a minutes play.
The same is true of Ayo to a degree, though he only had two years, so his data is a lot messier.
Vuc was just dumb all together, Pat probably looks dumb all together as well.
Ball is too early to tell. I like it, but a pretty unique set of circumstances where Ball himself almost seemed to phrase it as a favor to us for standing by him.
LaVine was a fine extension I think. We could have moved him the next year for multiple 1sts.
However, in the areas where we would say "this was a good extension", he relied on the player to make a leap beyond reasonable expectations for that player's age and experience for it to work. In fact, one could say that was true in all his extension talks. A couple times that happened, but if a guy went on their expected path, he was going to probably lose each of these extensions.
If we put that on Giddey, my guess is AK pays him something like 30M a year and then Giddey has to play at an extremely high level to prove worthy of that and is more likely than not to fail to live up to it.
Of these guys, I'd also say only Pat/Vuc were ones he was particularly on the hook for. Maybe Ayo to some degree, but Ayo was coming off such a poor year when he signed his extension it wasn't a big deal. Coby was never his guy, and the Bulls made it clear that they didn't really care for Coby the way they treated him the whole year prior to the extension. They had banished him to not really playing until he proved on the court he needed more minutes, and they tried to trade him but found no takers.
In this sense, with my general view of a lot of nuance in how the Bulls looked at guys and how they treat guys in their "camp" so to speak, I think Giddey is in for a monster extension from this FO. Perhaps that proves out to be inaccurate as admittedly, there are very few data points here to make all these guesses about.
