Coronavirus

[Fl_Flash]

Plus, a great amount of their assets - especially liquid assets - are tied up in non-taxable vehicles such as Treasure Bonds and State and local bonds. The interest rates aren't great, but the benefit is the interest is tax free. If I happen to have 100 mil laying around, I'm putting it state and local bonds at around 5% (or so) interest. That's 5 mil a year, tax free. Might be tough to eke out a living, but I'd try. Real estate, tangible properly like boats and expensive cars, precious metals, stocks - all sorts of places I can put my excess to work for me. All managed from within the Trust.

I'm not sure where you think you're getting a fully tax exempt bond at 5% interest rate, but that hasn't been available in the last decade that I'm aware of. Also doubt many billionaires are investing that much in tax exempt bonds because you can make so much more money in equity. Bonds are typically used for people arbitraging rates like banks or insurance companies or for people trying to lower portfolio risk as they age.

It's just an example dougie. I'm looking right now, Municipal 10yr (A\A) bond yield is 5%. I also put (or so) in there also. I believe I also stated there's lots of other places to put your money.

Point was that those other two were going back and forth over why the rich do (or don't) live in a high income state. The main point was that they really aren't that concerned with the taxation rate of any given state. They're much more concerned with avoiding inheritance\estate taxes.

[aggerrard]

Watch on YouTube

[League Circles]

I'm not sure there even is real data on individuals' assets in this country. I mean IIRC there usually isn't a tax need to disclose all assets, so what I'm claiming isn't really provable. It's just common sense and relatively common knowledge. I didn't know it was a controversial notion at all.

When you are making the argument that data doesn't exist to back your claim and everyone should just accept your "facts"; it is a sign you have no argument. In some ways you are even arguing against yourself. Someone with large assets and low income has no need to live in a low-tax state because they don't have high income for the state to tax in the first place. They would likely still pay property taxes, which are very high in Texas (a place you claim the rich are flocking to for tax reasons).

I've explicitly pointed this out numerous times already (the issue of high value individuals being OK living in a high income tax state because their taxable income isn't high). I haven't claimed the rich are flocking to these places, I've pointed out that, deductively, it probably has to be an issue at some level. The only way that wouldn't be true is if you either think that no one moves or pretends to move to another state for income tax reasons, which I think is preposterous on its face, OR, you think that the people that do that are cancelled out by people who do the reverse - rich people deliberately moving from no or low tax states to high tax states (obviously for unrelated reasons). That isn't preposterous and is perhaps worthy of discussion. I'm not clear if you believe one of these two things, or instead have misinterpreted my claim which is simply that it's an issue to consider in establishing tax policy (and migration policies). I would admit it would seem easier to regulate between nations as opposed to between states which is what we're doing to attempt to understand trends.

The point is that you are trying to boil a very complex issue into a simple pre-defined narrative. Nobody called your claim "controversial" (that's another strawman you created). You have made a stand on an opinion you cannot back up with any data or research. If you want to make the claim, bring the receipts (or sources).

I think perhaps we're just accidentally talking past each other here, misunderstanding each other's positions. My position is that people like money, a lot, especially people who have proven to take measures to make sure they have a lot of it (the wealthy), and it would be a serious mistake to thus presume that their choices, such as where to live or especially where to pretend to live, won't be affected enough such they they reach a tipping point.

I mentioned controversial because I thought you were implying that the data isn't yet in on whether or not people like money due to not very relevant info on things like billionaires (extraordinarily small sample size size -under-inclusive), millionaires (way too over-inclusive), and the income tax rate info dice provided (irrelevant IMO because, as doug also pointed out, if you're a billionaire and you're going to "move" (fake or half time moves, mostly) due to tax reasons, for that very narrow demographic, you'd go zero, not low. One could disagree on this perhaps reasonably but to me it's a simple lifestyle reality.

Think of it like this, the data is perhaps unclear on whether the earth is warming or cooling. But the deductive reasoning is clear beyond any doubt that humans are making it warmer than it would otherwise be (2nd law of thermodynamics), so in terms of deciding on human policy, it's not that important whether the unclear and perhaps changing data on climate change is clear or not, because entropy can only go one way.

So to what extent potential tax dollars are currently being held by individuals instead of being surrendered to the state is not that important, because it's very difficult to determine (none of us has scratched the surface on that data on either side), and because it can change over time. What doesn't seem likely to change without substantial biological evolution taking inconceivable amounts of time, is that some people will make important choices based on lots of money, and we should be very, very careful in making changes to financial incentives because what we presume won't change total tax receipts may in fact change them a lot. And in this case (people expatriating after a proposed 50% flat tax on all income including bonds yields and capital gains), the results may not be reversible. Once people renounce citizenship it may be nearly impossible to get them back.

That's all I'm saying.

[rapstarter]

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[transplant]

Read on Twitter

No surprise here.

As Hawk Harrelson used to say, "Cinch it up and hunker down."

[dougthonus]

Ronin Capital collapsed today due to the market crashes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html

I think a bunch of other financial firms may likely be in trouble, you could see liquidity completely go away from the markets if that is the case. It would cause a massive negative impact to stock prices if that happened.

[coldfish]

Ronin Capital collapsed today due to the market crashes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html

I think a bunch of other financial firms may likely be in trouble, you could see liquidity completely go away from the markets if that is the case. It would cause a massive negative impact to stock prices if that happened.

Some friends were looking at the market with greedy eyes. I was telling them that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife.

I have no idea what the bottom is but just wait until we start piling up body bags.

[dice]

Ronin Capital collapsed today due to the market crashes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html

I think a bunch of other financial firms may likely be in trouble, you could see liquidity completely go away from the markets if that is the case. It would cause a massive negative impact to stock prices if that happened.

Some friends were looking at the market with greedy eyes. I was telling them that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife.

I have no idea what the bottom is but just wait until we start piling up body bags.

i will happily have an order waiting at $157.54 for SPY stock if it gets down that far (2 cents above 2007 peak prior to the great recession). no matter how fast it happens. would be more than a 50% drop from last month's peak around $333. currently at $229. it would be a very odd historical circumstance if the bottom of this happened so soon after it started (then again, pandemics like this are pretty uncommon). the great recession saw a nearly year and a half drop in stock prices at losses of around 50% from peak. and the tech bubble took 2+ years to unwind (only 25% loss). this isn't just a coronavirus slide. there were pending underlying issues in the economy that were looking for an excuse to unravel

1/3 of stock market value lost in a month. crazy

[dice]

budget of pandemic response unit, disbanded 2 years ago: $0.6 bil
money requested by US space force for 2021: $15.4 bil
trump's border wall expense to date: over $11 billion (not paid for by mexico, no known pandemic deflection capability, replaces 224 miles of existing structures - 60 completed - and eventually (?) adds 100 miles of new wall. southern US border is nearly 2000 miles long)

[Chi town]

Ronin Capital collapsed today due to the market crashes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html

I think a bunch of other financial firms may likely be in trouble, you could see liquidity completely go away from the markets if that is the case. It would cause a massive negative impact to stock prices if that happened.

Some friends were looking at the market with greedy eyes. I was telling them that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife.

I have no idea what the bottom is but just wait until we start piling up body bags.

Yep. We will have a wave of deaths and then the massive downturn. The economic impact will be tough for a long time. 69% of Americans have less than 1k I’m savings.

[2018C3]

I'm in my late 40's, and this is the first time my generation has ever been challenged. It seems like scary times, but people my age and younger have been spoiled with a comfortable life. This level of carefree comfort is not common throughout human history.

Previous generations have all gone through tuff times as well. All my life I have felt forchanate that I have never had to fight in a war. I'n my family I'm the first generation of males who was never forced by a goverment to do this.

Were now being told to stay home, while my Grandfather and Father were shipped oversea's with riffles in the hand and metal hats, I hope this helps put things into perspective.

It seems we now have our first challenge to overcome, and I'm sure we will take some losses, but like every generation before us, life will continue.

Most of human history is filled with stories of a much greater strugle.

[HINrichPolice]

Hey Bulls fam,

I haven't been on the boards and quickly skimmed through a few pages of this thread. I've been spending most of my time on Twitter lately (please don't judge).

As always, the best discussion is on the good ole' RealGM Bulls board.

Any thoughts on the importance of an emergency UBI stimulus lasting the duration (or beyond) of the pandemic? Any thoughts on means testing vs not means testing? Would love to hear what you all think since I respect so many of you here and I've been in my bubble.

[dice]

Hey Bulls fam,

I haven't been on the boards and quickly skimmed through a few pages of this thread. I've been spending most of my time on Twitter lately (please don't judge).

As always, the best discussion is on the good ole' RealGM Bulls board.

Any thoughts on the importance of an emergency UBI stimulus lasting the duration (or beyond) of the pandemic? Any thoughts on means testing vs not means testing? Would love to hear what you all think since I respect so many of you here and I've been in my bubble.

it's certainly important for a hell of a lot of people in general, even more so given what we're dealing with. the current proposal in congress i believe is $600 for those not working and $1200 for families making up to $75K. not sure if reported income qualifies as means-testing. it's certainly reasonable not so send money out to everybody, though

[dougthonus]

Ronin Capital collapsed today due to the market crashes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html

I think a bunch of other financial firms may likely be in trouble, you could see liquidity completely go away from the markets if that is the case. It would cause a massive negative impact to stock prices if that happened.

Some friends were looking at the market with greedy eyes. I was telling them that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife.

I have no idea what the bottom is but just wait until we start piling up body bags.

I went conservative in a good chunk of my portfolio in September and sold everything in my 401k where I wouldn't get hit with taxes which was about 1/3rd of my assets overall. It's kind of funny, because if it weren't for taxes, I probably would have gone conservative with nearly all of my portfolio, but I wasn't so sure on the bet in September that I wanted to pay a massive tax bill to test my theory because the bar of being right would have been so high.

The bond side of my portfolio which I went into in September was up quite a bit for awhile in the initial market flurry, but now it's down 6%, and I feel stupid for not exiting it earlier too earlier, but I've done so now.

Will sit in cash for awhile and wait to see what happens. The rebound from this market crash is not going to be a V shape like many people thought it would, quick dip due to corona virus panic, then everything is back to normal. Unemployment might be worse than the great depression in a couple months if things go really bad. Even if after things get back to 'normal', it will take a long time for companies to go back into hire mode, because no one will have money to spend, because everyone is out of work, so they won't rebound so fast.

I think I talked myself into going cash with the rest of my portfolio on Monday and just waiting this out. There's every reason to think the downside is a global economic collapse and that the market could contract down by crazy amounts like the sp500 going from 3380 down to 500 and that we also enter a hyper inflationary period afterwards because the government is just going to print a trillion dollars it doesn't have to bail everyone out.

It could easily end up not being that bad, but I don't think I'm going to miss out on a rocket going upwards when this all ends if I go cash now.

[The Box Office]

It seems like scary times, but people my age and younger have been spoiled with a comfortable life. This level of carefree comfort is not common throughout human history.

Previous generations have all gone through tuff times as well.

I experienced this within the last 30 years. Even through the 2008 Housing Crash. Most people around me didn't get "woke." Even my oldest brother and older sisters. They really haven't been tested like this.

I grew up in poverty 100% of my life so far. Been evicted, almost homeless, placed in a Children's home, physically abused, multiple attempts at my life from family members, pneumonia + food poisoning at the same time (I should have died), 2 ex girlfriends cheating, a seizure, consecutive years of unemployment, tons of rejection. I really don't know why I'm still here.

But I'm still here.

I embraced my Death and, for some weird reason, remained calm through this Covid-19 war. My other family, and friends, are scared and hate me whenever I say something. They say to "think positive." To me, there is no point in that. Because I've been there. Many times. Positive thought screws me over.

I'm a "realist." Reality is far more negative. I always get ready for the worst. I don't need to prep for the best. That made me work hard every day. That helped me to NOT get comfortable and complacent.

"Think positive" is such a dismissive phrase. The phrase doesn't help the situation. To me, they chose to not pay attention to reality. "Be real" is much better for me. It works.

The truth: Get ready for the worst because reality is usually bad anyway. Life will not work out as you planned.

Remain calm. Don't be scared. This is war against an invisible enemy that we all have to fight. Accept that. "Think positive" my a$$. Look around.

Trump and his Republican senators are making it difficult to get stimulus checks. I'm VERY sure that a lot of people who needs it WILL NOT get them. Even the people who voted for him.

This economy is heading to a Great Depression. I'm sure of it. Because we're in Recession right now. We're going to take huge nose dives. Disagree all you want. Think positive all you want. We're taking the plunge no matter what.

Most of my family and friends don't get it. They're still comfortable in a weird way making conspiracy theories just to fit their egos, smiling with their arms crossed and blankets draped over them watching Netflix.

It's all stupid. Just get ready for the worst. Do your part. That's it. Be prepared for battle once you get infected.

We will get through this unprecedented situation together. Life will continue, but the losses will be monumental. I'm anticipating up to 2 deaths in my immediate family from Covid 19. My mom, oldest sis, oldest bro, and brother in law are in my thoughts. They're high risk due to age and health problems. There is no vaccine/miracle drug around the corner.

I have no problem with Death. At least I have something to look forward to: I wanna be with my son again.

[dougthonus]

I experienced this within the last 30 years. Even through the 2008 Housing Crash. Most people around me didn't get "woke." Even my oldest brother and older sisters. They really haven't been tested like this.

I grew up in poverty 100% of my life so far. Been evicted, almost homeless, placed in a Children's home, physically abused, multiple attempts at my life from family members, pneumonia + food poisoning at the same time (I should have died), 2 ex girlfriends cheating, a seizure, consecutive years of unemployment, tons of rejection. I really don't know why I'm still here.

But I'm still here.

I embraced my Death and, for some weird reason, remained calm through this Covid-19 war. My other family, and friends, are scared and hate me whenever I say something. They say to "think positive." To me, there is no point in that. Because I've been there. Many times. Positive thought screws me over.

I'm a "realist." Reality is far more negative. I always get ready for the worst. I don't need to prep for the best. That made me work hard every day. That helped me to NOT get comfortable and complacent.

"Think positive" is such a dismissive phrase. The phrase doesn't help the situation. To me, they chose to not pay attention to reality. "Be real" is much better for me. It works.

The truth: Get ready for the worst because reality is usually bad anyway. Life will not work out as you planned.

Remain calm. Don't be scared. This is war against an invisible enemy that we all have to fight. Accept that. "Think positive" my a$$. Look around.

Trump and his Republican senators are making it difficult to get stimulus checks. I'm VERY sure that a lot of people who needs it WILL NOT get them. Even the people who voted for him.

This economy is heading to a Great Depression. I'm sure of it. Because we're in Recession right now. We're going to take huge nose dives. Disagree all you want. Think positive all you want. We're taking the plunge no matter what.

Most of my family and friends don't get it. They're still comfortable in a weird way making conspiracy theories just to fit their egos, smiling with their arms crossed and blankets draped over them watching Netflix.

It's all stupid. Just get ready for the worst. Do your part. That's it. Be prepared for battle once you get infected.

We will get through this unprecedented situation together. Life will continue, but the losses will be monumental. I'm anticipating up to 2 deaths in my immediate family from Covid 19. My mom, oldest sis, oldest bro, and brother in law are in my thoughts. They're high risk due to age and health problems. There is no vaccine/miracle drug around the corner.

I have no problem with Death. At least I have something to look forward to: I wanna be with my son again.

Sorry for all the difficulty you have gone through.

Reality for many people is difficult or negative, and you are right. It's likely going to be very bad relative to recent times over the next year.

I've always thought the difference between a normal, a recession, and a depression is pretty personal. If you end up under employed you're in recession, if you end up unemployed you're in depression, if you're one of the fortunate people that aren't impacted then not much really changes except perhaps your retirement planning which will likely recover before you retire anyway.

There's an expectation that 1 million to 5 million people are going to move into depression over the next month. If you go out another six months further it could be dramatically worse, or things could stabilize. As we recover, whatever recovery looks like, odds are most of those people whom were let go will move into new roles where they make less than they did before.

People need to prepare for the worst.

At the same time, staying positive, after making all the best choices you can in preparation, is still the best thing you can do. It improves your mental health. It improves the reaction of those people around you while seeking opportunity. It improves your chances at a positive outcome as this ends. When looking for new relationships (job, personal, friends, whatever), positivity is a trait almost everyone appreciates.

Thinking positive doesn't mean assuming the market will recover or I will keep my job or that life as I've known it for the past 44 years will continue unchanged. It's about ensuring I make the best out of whatever comes, even if whatever comes is worse than what has been in the past.

[Habs72]

Holy **** your president is beyond terrible

Read on Twitter

[MrSparkle]

President Moron needs to pass a universal based income.

It has barely been a week and small businesses are beginning to collapse, service sector employees (majority of the city population) are going to collapse.

This is idiotic. The 0/600/1200 one-time stipend based on 2018 tax returns is moronic and short-sighted. What the hell are you supposed to do with $600 in Chicago for a month +? It would make more sense to “freeze the economy” temporarily with bailout income, and have people come back to their regular jobs and gigs in 2-3 months

Btw - I personally don’t need anything in the short-term. I’m talking about the general population. This is projecting to be such a bigger mess than it already is.

I would really appreciate if Gov. Cupmo took over the federal leadership of this, and Trump went back to his bedroom to play with toy blocks.

[MrSparkle]

Holy **** your president is beyond terrible

Read on Twitter

Beyond embarrassing. Absolutely time for him to get replaced with a more competent leader to handle this - TODAY. Jokes are long over.

[GetBuLLish]

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Very interesting read about how COVID-19 is not nearly as dangerous as many believe. Doesn't answer every question but still eye opening.