RealGM

ranked by opponent EFG%, also included FT allowed/48, minutes at SG and salary. three groupings based on minutes played at position. median of first group .501, overall median .494. free agents and other notables in bold

STARTER MINUTES:

0.467 4.1 2076 27.4 bryant
0.468 4.9 1614 4.7 harden
0.470 4.1 1984 3.7 sefolosha
0.477 4.6 1983 6.8 matthews
0.477 4.5 1808 6.3 redick
0.478 4.6 1986 15.6 carter
0.482 5.7 2059 1.3 afflalo
0.488 4 2405 11.7 j.rich
0.488 3.7 2204 20.5 johnson
0.489 4.7 2630 17.6 wade
0.489 4.4 2376 10 r.allen
0.490 4.7 1985 9.5 hinrich
0.491 3.6 2007 11 parker
0.499 5.9 1500 4.2 t.evans
0.501 4.3 2257 9.5 terry
0.501 4.2 1384 1.3 ellington
0.504 4.3 2110 3.4 e.gordon
0.505 4.9 2008 2.2 b.rush
0.508 4 1451 2.1 s. brown
0.509 5.2 1394 7.9 crawford
0.511 3.8 1877 9.3 jackson
0.515 5.3 1663 2.7 derozan
0.525 4 3073 4.5 mayo
0.529 5.5 1698 10 martin 2008-2009
0.534 5.8 2005 11.2 ellis
0.535 4.4 1562 3.3 r.bell 2008-2009
0.537 4.9 1627 min thornton
0.541 2.7 1352 16 roy
0.543 4.5 2238 3 c.brewer
0.543 4.1 2211 1.5 lee

SECONDARY MINUTES:

0.417 4.8 1147 2 r.brewer
0.439 3.9 1259 3.4 green
0.445 5.3 1313 1.4 fernandez
0.452 6.2 1183 5 smith
0.455 6.5 799 3.3 t.allen
0.459 5.5 813 1.2 head
0.464 4.5 997 hughes
0.465 4.6 902 2.4 williams
0.466 3.8 1338 13 ginobili
0.473 4.8 1077 1.7 belinelli
0.478 3.4 1008 3.5 r.butler
0.479 4.3 1170 7.8 salmons bulls
0.479 5.1 932 4.2 west
0.483 5.8 1322 3.7 c.bell 2008-2009
0.484 4 954 15 redd 2008-2009
0.487 4.7 1040 weaver 2008-2009
0.493 5.9 1218 1.9 n.young
0.494 5.4 700 2 dragic
0.496 5 705 min weems
0.508 5.4 1105 3.8 mason
0.509 3.2 1051 13.3 ig
0.509 4.6 949 2 murray cha
0.511 4 861 6 miller
0.511 2.9 757 2.4 bayless
0.516 4.6 743 6 lowry
0.524 4 1225 11.3 hamilton
0.563 5.4 947 11 b.gordon

TERTIARY MINUTES:

0.393 4.3 569 1.5 cook
0.443 5.5 465 min s.graham
0.443 5.5 439 min j.graham
0.444 2.5 615 min bogans
0.447 5.2 451 min carney
0.474 4.2 442 5 vujacic
0.490 4.2 639 s.young
0.496 5.2 407 2 daniels
0.511 4.6 543 1.3 douglas
0.513 5 637 min iverson
0.514 7.3 538 5 korver
0.515 5.1 615 4 stevenson
0.516 4.2 598 min stackhouse
0.519 6.7 659 4 morrow
0.519 2.9 402 21 mcgrady
0.537 5 527 6 garcia
0.590 4 634 5.8 peterson

ben gordon perhaps worst defender in league at SG? brewer best in league? note that quality of defense behind SG affects opponent FG%

good find!

Rudy!

sco wrote:good find!

Rudy!

created database and plugged in numbers from various websites. took hours

So for full-time SG's, the BEST FG against was 47%? That's the BEST?

It's almost like there are no lock down defenders. If we didn't know better.

I appreciate the hard work the OP did...

But being that I'm "anti" Redick as a starter at the salary presented....I must chime in.

This continues to raise the same question I've been asking...

Look at the name one spot below Redick's....

How much of an impact does D-Howard back-stopping a player really have?

panthermark wrote:I appreciate the hard work the OP did...

But being that I'm "anti" Redick as a starter at the salary presented....I must chime in.

This continues to raise the same question I've been asking...

Look at the name one spot below Redick's....

How much of an impact does D-Howard back-stopping a player really have?

Good question. Orlando played really good defense last year, a lot of that was Howard, but they played good team defense. I think this shows that JJ can do well in a good defensive system. That is what Thibs is bringing, or so we hope. If he doesn't, we are screwed a lot more than just if JJ was good or not.

In other words, do I think JJ could go to the Knicks and repeat these numbers - no way. But he could be more than adequate for the Bulls. Or do you say Jazz?

panthermark wrote:I appreciate the hard work the OP did...

appreciate you saying so!

But being that I'm "anti" Redick as a starter at the salary presented....I must chime in.

This continues to raise the same question I've been asking...

Look at the name one spot below Redick's....

How much of an impact does D-Howard back-stopping a player really have?

yep. they're probably both average defenders. redick due to hard work, carter due to laziness

kyrv wrote:So for full-time SG's, the BEST FG against was 47%? That's the BEST?

It's almost like there are no lock down defenders. If we didn't know better.

well, bear in mind EFG% is always gonna be higher than FG%, particularly at this position

range for starter-caliber players defending is 47-54%. no outliers. i'd imagine the range on OFFENSE is greater, but maybe not by much. in the past i've done analysis at the team level that has found 10+% more variation in offensive #s. differently stated, 55% of total variation in team performance is due to offense, 45% defense

Thunder fan here. Does that mean that Sefolosha and Harden are the 2nd and 3rd best defensive SG's in term of FG% against, or the 2nd and 3rd worst?

Thanks

fallacy wrote:Thunder fan here. Does that mean that Sefolosha and Harden are the 2nd and 3rd best defensive SG's in term of FG% against, or the 2nd and 3rd worst?

Thanks

best. which makes sense given sefolosha's 2nd team all-defense nod

the question is whether harden's D is really that good. how's his reputation down there?

dice wrote:

fallacy wrote:Thunder fan here. Does that mean that Sefolosha and Harden are the 2nd and 3rd best defensive SG's in term of FG% against, or the 2nd and 3rd worst?

Thanks

best. which makes sense given sefolosha's 2nd team all-defense nod

the question is whether harden's D is really that good. how's his reputation down there?

Down here sefolosha is considered the best defensive SG in the league and is our "kobe killer." Harden on the other hand is considered an offensive SG and was thought to have a deficiency on the defensive end. As the season went on last year everyone was surprised how good harden was on the defensive side and due to that many people want him starting this year, since the offensive difference between him and sefolosha is much greater than the defensive difference.

With Westbrook, Harden, Sefolosha, and Durant we are pretty confident we have the best defensive back court in the NBA. With us adding Aldrich with Ibaka down low we feel much better about our defensive front court. Considering we were the best shot blocking team, best offensive rebounding team, and best overall defensive team (on some stats) last year, we feel very good about our team

fallacy wrote:we feel very good about our team

you should. durant certainly seems to as well

Ronnie Brewer, straight up filthy. Just sayin'.

at Ben Gordon.

So many people on this board were praising his improved defense over the years when defending him that we should resign him. Time to eat crow.

Glad we got rid of BG, this stat is just the icing on the cake and puts me at peace with his leaving.

I think it's really, really hard to edit out the noise of man defense on the perimeter. NBA defense today is geared at helping the perimeter. The teams that help well will have have primary defenders that look good. Some teams overhelp the perimeter, some teams underhelp, depending on strategy and team strengths. The Magic, for example, stick to shooters like glue because Dwight Howard is going to erase a large percentage of any man-defensive mistakes. There's a reason that he fouls a lot in the playoffs, and there's a reason why pretty much ANY defender on the Magic tends to look at least decent. When your job is to play tight, contest J's and not foul, and all you have to do on penetration is try to shield one side off, it's not hard.

A team like Detroit, whose best Center was our WORST Center 3 years ago, and whose best power forward was a rookie Jerebko, there's no way the perimeter will look good, because they constantly were trying to sink down to try to protect on penetration.

Defense is too much of a team concept to expect to examine man-defense stats and come away with more than 1/5th of the actual picture. Subjective analysis will ALWAYS have to qualify each ranking. Contextual stats are probably the very best for defense. Comparing how a team does on D with a player on/off court, I think, produces way less noise.

Finally people will stop saying the Redick can only shoot. The more I read about this guy the more I don't want the Magic to match. I think he would play of Rose very very well and would be another great young piece for our team.

BrooklynBulls wrote:I think it's really, really hard to edit out the noise of man defense on the perimeter. NBA defense today is geared at helping the perimeter. The teams that help well will have have primary defenders that look good. Some teams overhelp the perimeter, some teams underhelp, depending on strategy and team strengths. The Magic, for example, stick to shooters like glue because Dwight Howard is going to erase a large percentage of any man-defensive mistakes. There's a reason that he fouls a lot in the playoffs, and there's a reason why pretty much ANY defender on the Magic tends to look at least decent. When your job is to play tight, contest J's and not foul, and all you have to do on penetration is try to shield one side off, it's not hard.

A team like Detroit, whose best Center was our WORST Center 3 years ago, and whose best power forward was a rookie Jerebko, there's no way the perimeter will look good, because they constantly were trying to sink down to try to protect on penetration.

Defense is too much of a team concept to expect to examine man-defense stats and come away with more than 1/5th of the actual picture. Subjective analysis will ALWAYS have to qualify each ranking. Contextual stats are probably the very best for defense. Comparing how a team does on D with a player on/off court, I think, produces way less noise.

You are a smart man. Very well said.

SIGN RONNIE!

BrooklynBulls wrote:I think it's really, really hard to edit out the noise of man defense on the perimeter. NBA defense today is geared at helping the perimeter. The teams that help well will have have primary defenders that look good. Some teams overhelp the perimeter, some teams underhelp, depending on strategy and team strengths. The Magic, for example, stick to shooters like glue because Dwight Howard is going to erase a large percentage of any man-defensive mistakes. There's a reason that he fouls a lot in the playoffs, and there's a reason why pretty much ANY defender on the Magic tends to look at least decent. When your job is to play tight, contest J's and not foul, and all you have to do on penetration is try to shield one side off, it's not hard.

A team like Detroit, whose best Center was our WORST Center 3 years ago, and whose best power forward was a rookie Jerebko, there's no way the perimeter will look good, because they constantly were trying to sink down to try to protect on penetration.

Defense is too much of a team concept to expect to examine man-defense stats and come away with more than 1/5th of the actual picture. Subjective analysis will ALWAYS have to qualify each ranking. Contextual stats are probably the very best for defense. Comparing how a team does on D with a player on/off court, I think, produces way less noise.

Well stated...
And that has been my entire concern with the defensive "numbers" on Redick (and Morrow for that matter). If you swapped Morrow and Redick....does Morrow become an "average" defender with Howard back-stoppng him? Is that against starters or reserves? How does Redick's D look if he is playing SF next to Ellis at SG and Maggette at PF? Per 36's and per 48's mean nothing to me if a player's role is to go "balls to the wall" for four "5 minute spurts" each quarter, but may not be able to maintain that level against other starters for 30+ minutes.

BrooklynBulls wrote:Comparing how a team does on D with a player on/off court, I think, produces way less noise.

+/- type stuff doesn't work too well in the NBA, i think, simply because players aren't taken off the court at random times during the game. often it's matchup-dependent and starting units get mixed and matched w/ reserves and it depends on who the replacement player is and it just gets really, well, noisy. but you're right that even a good defensive stat has to be looked at as just a piece of the puzzle. i thought maybe a differential between man-to-man #s and team #s would be more insightful when it comes to serious analysis but didn't wanna turn people off

using BG as an example, though:

w/ pistons (team EFG% defense .526) he posted a .563. net -.037, which is still pret-ty bad
w/ bulls prior year (team EFG% defense .493) he put up .504, net -.011, which is below average

so using this stat alone he went from a below average defender w/ bulls to flat-out bad w/ pistons, even when accounting for the team defense buffer. what is the explanation? probably partly some random statistical variation, probably the fact that it's easier to be lazy when your team isn't contending for anything, probably a period of adjustment due to the new system, and possibly the fact that he just got a fat contract