RealGM

I went through and put together most of the stats for all former MVPs in one excel to really see what makes voters choose an MVP. I took all MVPs from the 3 point era. I looked at wins, per, ppg, apg, rpg, year of career when award was won, seed, ts%, did they lead the league in a major category, and impact (simple points + assists + rebounds). Here is what I found for the average MVP

(includes average, standard deviation, and skewness of data. skewness refers to which side of the average the data "favors")

Wins:
61.1 with standard deviation of 5.25 and the data skewed higher

Seed:
1.42 with standard deviation of 1.03 and the data skewed MUCH lower

PER:
27.01 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed lower

PPG:
26.42 with standard deviation of 3.97 and the data skewed higher

APG:
5.86 with standard deviation of 3.03 and the data skewed higher

RPG:
9.00 with standard deviation of 3.32 and the data skewed lower

TS%
58.61% with standard deviation of 2.72% and the data skewed higher

Points + Assist + Rebounds
41.27 with standard deviation of 3.73 and the data skewed higher

Years in League at time of MVP
8.68 with standard deviation of 2.59 and the data skewed slightly lower

Also 71% of the MVPs led the league in a major statistical category.....not THAT strong of a trend at all though

those were the raw numbers. In terms of what makes an MVP, a VERY strong trend was seeding.

24 MVP's from a 1 seed
4 MVP's from a 2 seed
2 MVP's from a 3 seed
1 MVP from a 6 seed

What does this all have to do with rose? well see for yourself. blue marks are former MVPs while the red mark is rose.










for the most part, rose is near the bottom of the pack in all of the categories. his "gaudy" stats so far this season would make a weak MVP candidates numbers, but they would not stick out as being a bad or undeserving MVP....just pretty weak. Even as a 3 seed in the east, I could see rose having the record (as long as we dont drop below 55 wins) to win this year.

I do not think rose has the combination of stats and/or wins to make it. if the voters are crazy enough to give it to wade or lebron, rose doesnt have a prayer. If rose wins the MVP, he would literally rewrite MVP history by doing it this early in his career. no one has gotten MVP in only his 3rd year in the league....it would be totally unprecedented. also, as you guessed, rose would be the youngest MVP ever.

I think rose will improve his ppg and ts%. also, with our schedule, I could see if we dont have a lul getting 55 wins. if rose does these two i think hell have a real shot.

Improvements rose can make to better his chances:
-keep upping his ts% through free throws
-either up ppg or apg
-anything over 55 wins or the 3 seed would improve his chances a ton...this is the biggest factor

here is the link to an image of the excel sheet stats of every MVP
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/5562/statsmy.png

Really good thread.

Would be interesting to see what Dirk, Amare and Dwight would poll in those graphs this seaosn.

Really, really cool stuff. Good work. I don't expect D-Rose to win MVP. It's just nice to have him in the conversation.

kingkirk wrote:Really good thread.

Would be interesting to see what Dirk, Amare and Dwight would poll in those graphs this seaosn.

i can do those for ya, but its not going to be as pretty as that as it took a while. ill do one for each but itll be one long ass image linked.....gimme like 15 minutes

SephCast wrote:Really, really cool stuff. Good work. I don't expect D-Rose to win MVP. It's just nice to have him in the conversation.

ya i was sick of the myths and rumors of MVPs past....i had a few hours and nothing to do so i wanna put it all to rest

Only if you have time man, this sortof stuff is more insightful for a decent conversation rather than a hater coming in saying Rose is overrated.

Our team would lucky to win 10 games the whole season without Rose.

He is the team.

Great stuff.

Rose's assists would be higher in Brickens wasnt starting.

Irregular wrote:Our team would lucky to win 10 games the whole season without Rose.

He is the team.

Agreed...but they did almost beat the Nuggets if JLIII wasnt a choke artist, without Rose and Boozington

ignore the "rose" label on the images lol

amare: record not even close nor will it be
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7636/amare.png

dirk: having a proto-typical mvp like year
http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/5053/dirk.png

dwight: same as rose
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/9564/dwight.png

looking at these and the numbers, dirk is in the lead right now. with their falling record however....that may be a problem. again, ignore the rose label lol

bogans has some catching up to do:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8047/bogans.png

alucryts wrote:bogans has some catching up to do:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8047/bogans.png

HAHAHAHHAHA

alucryts wrote:bogans has some catching up to do:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8047/bogans.png

Oh man, this had me in stitches

hahaha ya i just had to do that.

anyway the TLDR version of above:

if you want rose to win MVP, WE NEED 55+ WINS. there is no doubt bulls need to finish with 55+ wins and NO WORSE than the 3 seed.

if we can nab 55+, 3+ seed, and rose's ts% and points increase, he should take it assuming dirk's standing in MVP decreases slightly.

rest of way:
35-10 = 60 wins
30-15 = 55 wins

since boozer returned: 16-4......using THIS pace on our current total, we would finish with 61 wins and finish the season out on a 36-9 pace

Amazing stuff alucryts. Dare I say, MVP type post?

alucryts wrote:bogans has some catching up to do:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8047/bogans.png

My god I was dying when I saw those graphs.

great analysis. I will admit my primary reason for wanting Rose to win MVP is to attract Howard here. If he demands a trade we can offer the best package as of right now with Noah, Taj, and picks. Although of Rose finishes 2nd or 3rd in voting this season and next that may do it as well.

*Faps to the thought of Rose and Howard being on the same team

ELCIDz wrote:great analysis. I will admit my primary reason for wanting Rose to win MVP is to attract Howard here. If he demands a trade we can offer the best package as of right now with Noah, Taj, and picks. Although of Rose finishes 2nd or 3rd in voting this season and next that may do it as well.

Much better to trade Boozer and move Noah to the 4. Just saying.

GREAT JOB alucryts.