If you take the best player off every team . . .

[Rerisen]

I think the more surprising thing about this team being on a 50 win pace right now, is doing it with the changes we had, moreso than doing it without Rose. Because let's not forget how much better yet this team is and was *with* Derrick Rose.

62 Wins his last full season (he missed one game, that we lost). So that is 12-13 more than 50, certainly superstar impact. Metrics that try and measure this like Win Shares suggest Rose was worth 13.1 wins in 2011. eWINS, a stat that tries to measure the same thing in a slightly different way, said 15.4, so the results we are seeing are not far off these numbers.

Also keep in mind last year.

2012 Win Pace:

Without Derrick Rose = 55 Win Pace
With Derrick Rose = 67 Win Pace

Again, 12 win difference.

LeBron James rated out as worth 18-20 wins in Cleveland his last two years, but just 15.6 his first year in Miami. Back toward 18 last year and projecting this year. He is head and shoulders above everyone in those years. Paul and Durant have been around Rose's impact in these stats in recent years, though Durant is exploding up this year. Kobe in 09, the year I compared Rose's too, had 12.7 WS.

So the numbers would concur that Rose's play is right in line with general consensus, as him as a top 5ish player, somewhere between 4-7 most likely. Iverson or Marbury, who Rose often gets slighted as a trumped up version of, never approached these numbers, excepting AI Finals year, he was close at 11.8 WS.

KD and LeBron are way out in front of everyone in the league currently, but after them its anyone's game, and Rose is right there.

So what does this all this say for this year, Bulls could be back to a 62 type win team with (a fully healthy) Rose. Similar as 2011 in team strength, but perhaps not as strong as last year, when our Win Differential went up almost a full point as well (from 7.3 to 8.2) vs 2011.

[coldfish]

It's a nice thought, and I'd love for you and others who think along those lines to be proven right, but I just...don't know. I really like this Bulls team, but I don't see how they so special that it's reasonable to think they can buck a trend that has lasted for the entirety of my life.

Sadly, I'm older than you. The trend to start my life was that you needed a big man to win. Michael Jordan was basically a running joke with the NBA elites until he ran off 6 titles, then having two perimeter superstars became the gold standard.

Yes this Bulls team would be a little different in winning a title but if you truly just want to model the team after other recent title teams, you trade Derrick Rose. I don't think any team has won a title with their best player 6'3" or shorter in the past 20 years. Maybe Billups? Come to think of it, I don't think there is many teams that won where their second best player was a PG or that height. Its usually a 6'6" guard and a big man or two big wings.

CF, not trying to snipe in on your discussion, I'm just finding the thread compelling.

The thing with those Cavs teams they were just about maximally built for LeBron to operate at his highest usage possible and make the most impact. But obviously we can't say that's his true value ( 40+ wins) not just because of how their team changed, but more importantly how all the pieces fit around him. If he was really worth 40 wins, then going to Miami to join Wade and Bosh, they would have won 70+. But they actually won *less* than his best Cavs team that first year, and the Heat had a worse offense than those Cavs!

I would say those teams overly relied on LeBron, and the Bulls have definitely overly relied on Rose offensively the last two years. Rose has a better cast and did not win as many games, which shows what we already know, Rose is not as good. But the difference is not to the gap a Cleveland example makes out.

I think the deceptive thing with the Bulls is that in total talent we might have enough to be considered a championship team (and didn't we compete for one in 2011, and again last year, if Rose doesn't go down) but the total talent is just not balanced in an ideal way. If we could trade just a little bit of defense and rebounding, or better yet consolidate it, for slightly more offensive dynamism, the balance would be perfect. Trading Asik for an Aaron Afflalo / Kevin Martin type player might have achieved this, without actually increasing total talent. Now things are a little more diecy as we are thinner.

OK, let's discuss that. Lebron was effectively the PG for the Cavs and he created a ton of open looks for his teammates. A bunch of them had good PER's and scoring efficiencies as a result. I agree that they were built for him and he made them look better on offense.

Now let's look at the Bulls. Many people here have been pointing out that the Bulls have many players with lower TS%'s than they have had in the past. Now think about this. They are missing their all star POINT GUARD. Maybe we are missing how much Rose helps his teammates out on offense. To that end, maybe with Rose back, guys like Deng, Noah, Boozer, Belinelli and even Kirk are going to see much better looks and as a result will appear to be a lot better on offense. When Rose gets back, you won't just be adding his scoring but improving the scoring of everyone else.

If you disagree with me, that's fine. I just want to see someone actually come out and say that Rose isn't an A1 superstar if they feel that way because this is a fantastic team to put around a true A1 superstar.

[Rerisen]

Of course I would agree Rose's return should help efficiency of other players. Noah for sure, even Deng a bit, esp his three pointers, (Boozer not so sure, him and Rose didn't work magic) and he'll even help Kirk Hinrich if they play together, who dearly needs shots created for him (though probably not to the point Kirk is actually very good on offense).

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong, but the underlying current of your thoughts here seemed to me to indicate you thought Rose might be just a tad overrated. Hopefully no one is rating him as good as LeBron or Durant!

I agree that the Bulls are still a fringe contender this season, just a bit down from last year, and have a puncher's chance. But I still feel that when the rubber meets the road the biggest thing is going to be not having another guy to make a critical 1-3 plays in the crunch time of games, on the possessions Rose gets effectively bottled.

Instead Rose may keep the ball and try exceedingly difficult shots, because he knows throwing it to Boozer or Lu with 5 seconds on the clock will end even worse (and yes Beli too). And this will result in Rose faring perhaps poorly in the clutch at some point, prob past the first round, and people blaming him again for us losing.

Again too, lets not get crazy about our record. The east is pretty crappy, and we are just 5-10 vs the West where the big boys play. The team strength is not that great. It's just good to very good.

[johnnyvann840]

Great stuff Re.

Regarding this team vs. 2011 62 win, ECF team. This year's team has a few things that team didn't have. We have some guys who can create and are more than one dimensional. If we meet Miami, these things will help greatly, IMO. and itf we don't I feel confident we can handle any other EC team. We are just a bad matchup for the Knicks, Indy worries me more.

Besides more experience together and being two years older and wiser. We have added

Marco
Buckets
Nate
Kirk
Rip (if he's around)

We lost Brewer but Jimmy is better and can handle better and create and get to the line and is proving himself to be CLUTCH and loves pressure. He's showing us he can win us games on both ends of the floor.

We lost Korver but we get the same spacing from Marco and he can also handle the ball and do more with it and is proving to be able to win games and be clutch.

We also have Kirk, who can handle the ball under pressure and brings vet savvy and playoff experience. He also has been in Wade's head for years and knows how to guard him effectively.

Add Nate. He has his issues, but he's someone you can give the ball to when nothing else is working and he can generate some offense. He's also a guy you can put on the floor and when Rose is trapped and doubled at half court, he can go get the ball and have room to get something done.

Taj has shown the ability to create some offense down in the low post and he is two years older and wiser. He has shown he plays well under pressure as well.

Sure, we lost Asik but keep in mind he went down in the Miami series that year anyway and missed games 4 and 5 (played one min in game 4). One was an OT game and the other we had a 12 pt lead with 3 mins to go. We were close, very close even without him then.

Now, we have an improved Deng and Noah, both two years older and wiser with the experience of having been there once. Rose will be older and wiser and have more trust in Deng and Noah because he's seen them carry this team.

[coldfish]

Of course I would agree Rose's return should help efficiency of other players. Noah for sure, even Deng a bit, esp his three pointers, (Boozer not so sure, him and Rose didn't work magic) and he'll even help Kirk Hinrich if they play together, who dearly needs shots created for him (though probably not to the point Kirk is actually very good on offense).

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong, but the underlying current of your thoughts here seemed to me to indicate you thought Rose might be just a tad overrated. Hopefully no one is rating him as good as LeBron or Durant!

My point is that its rather rare for a superstar to be handed a supporting cast as good as the Bulls are. There are examples of better, but overall a top 5 player + 50 win team usually means contender.

I think that if someone disagrees with me on the contender part, its hard to argue the 50 win part, so you must not think Rose is a top 5 player.

As far as Chicago's record against the West: Not much to say there. Several bonehead losses, back to back losses and road losses. You are what you are though. It will be interesting to see if that turns around.

[Rerisen]

Miami is vulnerable this year. They should be very scared of OKC.

I see three avenues that the Bulls could take them out. Though this is very premature.

1.) Rose plays way over his head. Think Wade in the 06 Finals. Rose basically negates LeBron. This is a hell of a thing to expect Rose to have to do off ACL surgery.

2.) Rose plays to his normal level (23-25 PER), clutch late, and someone else steps up big time as a #2. Deng revisits the 07 First Round vs Miami and puts up 20+ on .570 TS% or something. Or Boozer plays like he did for 10 of the last 12 games while not blowing too much defensively.

3.) Rose plays normal, everyone else on offense plays normal (and doesn't suck like the 2011 ECF) and we kill Miami on the boards. This is what we expected out of Jo, Boozer, and Asik in 2011. It happened one game, we blew them out. After that, they gang rebounded and took away our advantage. But this year they are weaker yet to this kind of domination. Lot's of teams have been following our blueprint hammering them in this way, Utah, Indy, etc.

Then we lose to OKC in the Finals. Or maybe we just get bounced by Indy before that. Too many unknowns at this point.

[coldfish]

Doug gave me a shout out so I am going to reciprocate:

http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-bulls ... /#comments

[bigfan26]

Then we lose to OKC in the Finals. Or maybe we just get bounced by Indy before that. Too many unknowns at this point.

I definitely see that happening if Rose doesn't return to at least 90% pre-injury level. Indiana is playing unbelievable defense and has a budding star in P.George as well as Granger back for the playoffs. Their great defense could stifle the team and force Rose to beat them. Which he might not be able to do.

However, by the time we play Indiana in the playoffs, it would be 12 months since the surgery. Hopefully, Rose should be back to 100% by than.

[Jeffster81]

Call me naive if you want, but if the Bulls get a healthy Rose then they can beat any team in the league in a series. Yes, they can beat OKC and Miami, and Memphis, I really believe this. For as much jarring as people have said about needing Rose to play over his head or the rest of the team should play to their normal numbers, the same should be said that those teams would need their star players to play to their level or their complimentary players not sucking to beat the Bulls. It goes both ways.

I think if Rose was healthy, Chicago would be closer to OKC/SAS in record then they are currently. Rose would be getting MVP considering, Thibs would be getting COY consideration (he should, btw), etc. Now all of this my opinion and not stated in fact.

Are we getting a 100% healthy Rose this year? Prolly not, more like 75-90%. We won't see 100% Rose till next year. But a 75-90% Rose gives the Bulls a puncher's chance against any team in the NBA. And that is all you can ask for.