Cavaliers Pick Swap Thread

[kingkirk]

We're tracking the Kings pick but I don't believe we have one on this. If we do, I will close this up.

I remember when the Deng traded occurred, many thought we'd never see the fruits of the Kings pick or this pick swap.

Getting the Kings pick this off season is very plausible, and as it stands right now, we're jumping from 24th in the draft to 20th.

Many believed the Cavs would be better than the Bulls meaning the swap wouldn't occur.

Not so sure about that anymore, especially with Varejao now done for the season.

I'm not suggesting that we're going to nab a lottery pick from Cleveland, but if the draft were today, we'd be moving up a few places whilst shifting the Cavs down further.

That's schadenfreude at its finest, friends.

[kuly1990]

i think the pick is lottery protected

[mhsiao]

Even pick is lottery protected, there is no way Cavs should get lottery pick. (Unless LBJ has season ending injury.) Assume Bulls put the foot on the pedal and secure league best record again, the swap will allow Bulls to draft earlier instead last pick.

[musiqsoulchild]

This pick swap will land us someone good and at the same time prevent Cleveland from adding to their weak bench.

That is a nice little incentive to go on a tear and go all out for the first seed in the East.

[ptpablo]

The season just keeps getting better!

[dougthonus]

Moving around maybe five spots max in the late 1st is likely irrelevant, but better than nothing I suppose. Also quite plausible that we simply end up with a worse record as well. It's not like the Bulls are dominating the cavs record wise now.

[Proven_Winner]

Moving around maybe five spots max in the late 1st is likely irrelevant, but better than nothing I suppose. Also quite plausible that we simply end up with a worse record as well. It's not like the Bulls are dominating the cavs record wise now.

True, but as of right now Bulls are rolling and if they can keep up that head of steam they may very well be way ahead of cleveland in the standings. Also another thing to take into account we don't have to dominate them because picks are handed out from worse to best. So if we simply have a better record and let's say the Cavs move to 4th we possibly could get somewhere between 17-20.

[musiqsoulchild]

Moving around maybe five spots max in the late 1st is likely irrelevant, but better than nothing I suppose. Also quite plausible that we simply end up with a worse record as well. It's not like the Bulls are dominating the cavs record wise now.

I think the one place it makes a difference Doug is when trying to get the beat foreign player under contract at present.

That category of players usually get lapped up in the late teens to early 20's.

Anectodal, off the top of my head stuff though...I don't have any data to back the assertion up at this point.

[dougthonus]

Moving around maybe five spots max in the late 1st is likely irrelevant, but better than nothing I suppose. Also quite plausible that we simply end up with a worse record as well. It's not like the Bulls are dominating the cavs record wise now.

I think the one place it makes a difference Doug is when trying to get the beat foreign player under contract at present.

That category of players usually get lapped up in the late teens to early 20's.

Anectodal, off the top of my head stuff though...I don't have any data to back the assertion up at this point.

It certainly could make a difference, but I don't think the hit/bust rate is all that different between say pick 26 and 21 if the Bulls swapped those picks. I also don't have any evidence, just seems like when you get that low teams start maybe leaning in totally different directions anyway and there's a good shot your guy might slip to you anyway.

I'll still take it if the Bulls manage to finish with a much better record than the Cavs, but I don't know that I'm anticipating that really. The Bulls are playing quite well right now which is great, and maybe the Cavs will struggle a bit with AV out for the rest of the season, but I don't suspect the end of season gap will be that big in terms of pick slots if we get it at all.

We're talking at a position either way where it is highly likely that a bust is drafted.

It might add a tiny bit of value to the trade value of the pick since it's likely the pick will be 25 or under since it's unlikely that both the Bulls and Cavs end up with top five records.

[RastaBull]

I think the pick swap could be very big, specifically if we get Sac pick as well at #11 or #12.

Currently, Sac@ 11, Cavs@ 20, Bulls@ 23

MY HYPOTHETICALS (given relative health from here on out):
-I HOPE Sac can stay in this position.
-With the Varejao injury, I don't think Cavs will climb much, but I also don't foresee them dropping much (an East team like Atl or Wash might drop below them, but a West team like Spurs might rise above)
-I DO expect the Bulls to rise a number of spots. They are looking better and better every week, becoming more cohesive, starting to find the lockdown D again, and Rose is getting that consistent star-player mentality back. I fully expect them to get at least 2nd in East and think they'll overtake a West team or two (as those teams at the top start to beat each other up)

So my projection would be something like: Sac@ 11, Cavs@21, Bulls@ 27.

If this were the case the Bulls would end up with #11 and #21. Package those together and you could move up to 8, maybe even 7 depending on player availability and the other team's needs.

I know, I know, late 1sts aren't all that valuable in moving up, but #21 is still more valuable than #27 ... and there are teams at the top of the draft that will certainly need quantity (especially when the quality of their first pick would only be the difference of the 8th and 11th). A team like the Lakers ... who will likely clear house and sign two near-max level guys, but need bodies cheap to fill out roster/bench (two 1sts would be real nice).

Bulls on the other hand, NEED quality. We are deep enough that two picks isn't going to be as helpful as the potential difference in quality from #11 to #7/8. I'd only argue to keep both picks if we have an International target we really like and stash.

[TheStig]

This pick swap will land us someone good and at the same time prevent Cleveland from adding to their weak bench.

That is a nice little incentive to go on a tear and go all out for the first seed in the East.

That's a bold statement from moving up a few picks at the end of the first round. Does it cure cancer too?

[musiqsoulchild]

This pick swap will land us someone good and at the same time prevent Cleveland from adding to their weak bench.

That is a nice little incentive to go on a tear and go all out for the first seed in the East.

That's a bold statement from moving up a few picks at the end of the first round. Does it cure cancer too?

I followed that up with what my draft plan is:

Use the low 20's pick to pick the best foreign player available.

[TheStig]

This pick swap will land us someone good and at the same time prevent Cleveland from adding to their weak bench.

That is a nice little incentive to go on a tear and go all out for the first seed in the East.

That's a bold statement from moving up a few picks at the end of the first round. Does it cure cancer too?

I followed that up with what my draft plan is:

Use the low 20's pick to pick the best foreign player available.

I think you're overvaluing it. Its a nice thing to have but the chances of the Cavs finding a rotational player at pick 25 or 30 is pretty small. Particularly one who can contribute right away on a contender.

[VolumePoster]

It's added pleasure, to be sure. We can purely engage in hoping for every victory, and actively root even more against the Cavs. My real hope is that we end up with both Sacramento's pick and Cleveland ends up a low seed in the east. Then, we can package both to add another elite talent at wing - say Stanley Johnson or Justise Winslow.

[musiqsoulchild]

I think you're overvaluing it. Its a nice thing to have but the chances of the Cavs finding a rotational player at pick 25 or 30 is pretty small. Particularly one who can contribute right away on a contender.

Stig, you are misreading my post.

Say, Cavs get the 22nd pick and we get the 27th pick, we will then do best foreign player available and stash.

Cavs likely get a not so great player.

[aaqubed]

If we end up with the #1 seed in the East, which looks very possible, we could end up with the 27th or 28th pick. And then if the Cavs don't jump up higher than 5, which, again, seems very possible, they might end up with the 20th or 21st. That's not insignificant. I'm not saying we'll get a rotation player, but the chances of getting one are much higher. We also will likely end up with the 11th or 12th pick from Sacramento. So overall the Deng trade might turn out to be pretty good.

[TheStig]

I think you're overvaluing it. Its a nice thing to have but the chances of the Cavs finding a rotational player at pick 25 or 30 is pretty small. Particularly one who can contribute right away on a contender.

Stig, you are misreading my post.

Say, Cavs get the 22nd pick and we get the 27th pick, we will then do best foreign player available and stash.

Cavs likely get a not so great player.

I understand your strategy but the level of talent drop between 22 and 27 most years isn't noticeable.

I wouldn't be shocked if they traded their pick for help now.

[HINrichPolice]

Being able to move up 5 spots or so i the late 1st is great and something I totally forgot about. Thanks for this thread!

As we've seen in the past, there's plenty of value to be had in the 20's if we're smart about who we draft. A lot of recent gems have been found outside of the lottery.

[LoveDaBoo]

We're tracking the Kings pick but I don't believe we have one on this. If we do, I will close this up.

I remember when the Deng traded occurred, many thought we'd never see the fruits of the Kings pick or this pick swap.

Getting the Kings pick this off season is very plausible, and as it stands right now, we're jumping from 24th in the draft to 20th.

Many believed the Cavs would be better than the Bulls meaning the swap wouldn't occur.

Not so sure about that anymore, especially with Varejao now done for the season.

I'm not suggesting that we're going to nab a lottery pick from Cleveland, but if the draft were today, we'd be moving up a few places whilst shifting the Cavs down further.

That's schadenfreude at its finest, friends.

If things play out that way, that trade was unbelievably good for our franchise. We will have added a buffer to the repeater tax, picked up as high as an 11 pick, and improved our own pick. All for losing half a year of Deng in the midst of a pointless season, where we still managed to make the playoffs anyways.

A lot of people said we got nothing from that trade, but if this breaks right, they'll eat those words.

[LoveDaBoo]

By the way, whatever happened to Bynum?