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An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:47 am
by Googjob
With another loss and the team in a rut, we have people calling for the trade of our franchise players and the firing of one of the best coaches in the league. You'd think the team was under .500 with the way things are going. So lets take a look at some of the positives here.
- The team is 26-14. The 62-win team from a few years back had a nearly identical record to the Bulls right now (27-13). Under Thibodeau the Bulls have been a much stronger team in the second half of the season than in the first. Perhaps it takes some time to really get his defense nailed down.
- The team has a huge lead in the division at this point as well as on the 5th seed. Barring some huge turn of events, they will win have home court advantage in at least the 1st round. The team is within a game of both Toronto and Washington. Teams that play more road games than home games in their remaining schedule. Both teams have been mediocre on the road this year.
- The team has played well considering how many injuries they've dealt with this season. As well as the minute limits being placed on players. Dunleavy and McDermott should be back shortly.
- The team has been terrific on the road which bodes well for the playoffs where you'll need to win in some hostile environments.
- The team has a lot of areas that can improve. Rose will hopefully get better the more reps he gets and the more his body gets acclimated to NBA games. Gasol will hopefully improve defensively as he acclimates himself to Thibs defense. Mirotic will improve as he gets more opportunities playing in NBA games. And McDermott will not shoot 23% from 3 this season, he's just too good of a shooter.
There's definitely been some concerns of late, but the Bulls have almost always bounced back under Thibodeau. Remember last year when we thought this team was going to be in the lottery and then went on a tear? Or when the team was down half the roster a couple years ago in the playoffs and still made it out of the 1st round?
This is a good team that has shown it can beat other good teams. It's a team that is still on pace to win over 53 games despite the recent slump. They have a lot of talent and a good coach. Not saying we should not be concerned, but lets not pretend this team is the Cavs right now.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:08 am
by Eesee1
I agree with your points. It's just tough to see the team hit a rough stretch like this against overall average competition when they were somewhat rolling for the stretch before that. I agree we haven't seen the fully clicking iteration of this team yet.
The defensive intensity from Rose has to pick up, though...unless he's not physically able. Having this current iteration of Rose with Brooks combining for 40-55 mins a night is worse defensively than having D.J. or Nate play all game.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:16 am
by kuly1990
well its little worrying, but we have time to get on track, if after the allstar we are not showing improvement, than i will worry
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:43 am
by PhilippineBulls
At least we're not the Knicks.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:21 am
by TimRobbins
This is not a 60 win team. Not without another wing. No point to compare this team to the 2010-11 team.
There's a lot to be optimistic about. We're a good team. The question is what's your goal? If your goal is to win a tittle this season, I don't think this roster is good enough.
Re: Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:28 pm
by nrockwaychicago
TimRobbins wrote:This is not a 60 win team. Not without another wing. No point to compare this team to the 2010-11 team.
There's a lot to be optimistic about. We're a good team. The question is what's your goal? If your goal is to win a tittle this season, I don't think this roster is good enough.
This team is more talented than that other Bulls team IMO. Keith Bogans was a starter on that team. We may need a wing now, but we did then too.
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Re: Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:56 pm
by Ice Man
nrockwaychicago wrote:This team is more talented than that other Bulls team IMO.
The 2010-11 team would wipe the floor with this year's unit. Jo was much better than he is now, Derrick is much better than he is now, the bench mob smothered the opposition, and -- the critical point -- the 2010-11 team was delighted to play each and every game. Young guys excited as hell to take the court. Not a bunch of jaded veterans deciding which day to rest, and not fussing much after each loss.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:19 pm
by BullsFTW
Googjob wrote:With another loss and the team in a rut, we have people calling for the trade of our franchise players and the firing of one of the best coaches in the league. You'd think the team was under .500 with the way things are going. So lets take a look at some of the positives here.
- The team is 26-14. The 62-win team from a few years back had a nearly identical record to the Bulls right now (27-13). Under Thibodeau the Bulls have been a much stronger team in the second half of the season than in the first. Perhaps it takes some time to really get his defense nailed down.
- The team has a huge lead in the division at this point as well as on the 5th seed. Barring some huge turn of events, they will win have home court advantage in at least the 1st round. The team is within a game of both Toronto and Washington. Teams that play more road games than home games in their remaining schedule. Both teams have been mediocre on the road this year.
- The team has played well considering how many injuries they've dealt with this season. As well as the minute limits being placed on players. Dunleavy and McDermott should be back shortly.
- The team has been terrific on the road which bodes well for the playoffs where you'll need to win in some hostile environments.
- The team has a lot of areas that can improve. Rose will hopefully get better the more reps he gets and the more his body gets acclimated to NBA games. Gasol will hopefully improve defensively as he acclimates himself to Thibs defense. Mirotic will improve as he gets more opportunities playing in NBA games. And McDermott will not shoot 23% from 3 this season, he's just too good of a shooter.
There's definitely been some concerns of late, but the Bulls have almost always bounced back under Thibodeau. Remember last year when we thought this team was going to be in the lottery and then went on a tear? Or when the team was down half the roster a couple years ago in the playoffs and still made it out of the 1st round?
This is a good team that has shown it can beat other good teams. It's a team that is still on pace to win over 53 games despite the recent slump. They have a lot of talent and a good coach. Not saying we should not be concerned, but lets not pretend this team is the Cavs right now.
Good work. We needed some positive vibe here.
I believe this team will get better and still has a chance to finish the season with 58-62 regular season wins in my opinion. I know this team can make a deep run in the postseason.
I know a lot fans are mad and bummed, but you just can't put so much emotions on things you cannot control. Be glad with all the positives. It's still a long season.
An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:23 pm
by 85Bears
We have barely scratched the surface of what this team can be. Have played poorly more often than good and if we play the exact same way for the rest of the year will win 52 games.
I expect to be the 2 seed and will not be surprised if we get the 1 seed. 32-10 the rest if the way. Every year with Thibs has need the same. Start slow, get new guys acclimated, battle injuries, put it together Feb and March. I am more optimistic this year because we will not have to kill our guys to get a great record.
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Re: Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:30 pm
by TimRobbins
nrockwaychicago wrote:TimRobbins wrote:This is not a 60 win team. Not without another wing. No point to compare this team to the 2010-11 team.
There's a lot to be optimistic about. We're a good team. The question is what's your goal? If your goal is to win a tittle this season, I don't think this roster is good enough.
This team is more talented than that other Bulls team IMO. Keith Bogans was a starter on that team. We may need a wing now, but we did then too.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using RealGM Forums mobile app
I don't think it's more talented than the team which had Deng and MVP Rose and star Noah. Keith Bogans was one guy. Who do we have @ SF right now? The roster may be deep (with bigs), but it's not good enough to win 60 games.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:34 pm
by G I N T
Yeah I'm not that bothered. Obviously yesterday's loss was disappointing and the consistent losing to awful teams at home isn't enjoyable, but I think they'll save their best for the second half of the season. I see this as a minor bump in the road and assuming everyone is healthy I would still pick us to come out of the East. I don't see the #1 seed as all that important either. There are other very good teams in the East in Washington and Atlanta, but they're not so elite like prior years' champions that we need to have home court advantage.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:49 pm
by RayClayMatthews
How is this ROSTER itself not good enough for 60 wins?!
Health and rotations has been the issue. Lets say Noah and Rose are Noah and Rose...that means less Kirk and less Brooks. The rotations are also killing us. We need more Niko and less Pau/Jo together.
This team has a LOT of talent and versatility
4/5s
Noah Taj Gasol Cam
3/4s
MDJ Niko
2/3s
Tony Jimmy MDJ
1/2s
Rose Moore Kirk
Thats a lot of flexibility with guys covering more than one position.
We also have multiple ball handlers on the team and at least Thibs plays 2 PGs together now sometimes.
The roster is fine, we just need to put it all together
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:26 pm
by micromonkey
Highs and lows of the season—that said there are issues with this team—some are fixable and some are not (this season). Noah and Rose may get better but no way either gets to 100% by postseason.
Noah likely will not be anywhere near 100%--75% seems like an optimistic assumption.
Rose likely will not be 100%--physically he’s better than Noah but Offensively he’ll be about 80%+?--and less consistent and defense is 70% best case. If the Jen stuff is true then we are screwed and we can’t expect much improvement as he just won’t have the time/execution of playing D come playoffs.
Now Rose is almost a replacement level PG—a few hot shooting nights from 3 can’t be counted upon as they will be few and far between. The ESPN data about his driving more in 4th is slightly encouraging—meaning the capability is there—but finishing is still problematic and foul drawing (so far) is worse than before with quotes to make us believe it’s on purpose. The 82games on/off data is a little scary (and I doubt it’s any better since the 7th). Right now Brooks is helping as while Rose has the capacity / proven past to be a better defender he isn’t playing anywhere close to it.
Team defense I think won’t be top 5 but we can get to 7-8ish with lineup changes and execution. Rose has to improve effort wise and if we view Pau/Noah primarily as Cs and Taj/Niko as PFs the lineup combos probably work themselves out. We will see now with Noah out if Taj at 4 does improve overall starting 5 unit—and Taj/Niko as secondary. Dun has been out and obviously not elite but he’s a smart system defender who sure isn’t athletic or elite on-ball but he doesn’t get lost out there which is huge. If it were only 1v1 defense then sure Snell is probably better even now—but it’s 5v5 and that is where Snell still struggles mightily IMO (and Niko a bit—but that is out of position as well). Niko might work at the 3 in some lineups as a change of pace but not night in out. Lets hope Snell can get better to be a solid D sub who can hit a few 3s—right now (this year) being the Keith Bogans of SFs should be the title he aspires too. Really he should only play spot/breather mins when Dun gets back.
Pau has been very good this year—and defensively about what we should have expected—maybe even better—he’s better than Boozer for certain. I think him playing the 5 with his length really works as long as we got quickness at the PF.
Niko is better than expected on both ends—and he should get more burn now so we will see if it hold up.
We will need a Garnett/Celtics like 2nd half of season to really be a contender—where the lineup and execution is tweaked and we gel. I would not take it for granted but it’s possible. We have not fallen off as much as those Celts teams typically did so we won’t have as much ground to makeup. But with the upcoming schedule we very well could. I don’t see any cupcakes before ASB—all the “bad” teams on there have either beaten us and/or played us close—so we don’t have much time to start turning things around.
Noah’s injury will force the frontcourt alignment(s) many have wanted but we still lose something as a hobbled Noah is still probably better than any Nazy mins—and we risk running Pau into the ground—based on Thibs likely use of him.
I don’t think a trade should be out of the question as you have to be looking at it from a 2 year window—not just what the new player would add now (but mid-season acquisitions never lead to championships!) but more does it allow us to get more player than we would with simple cap or draft pick in offseason. Rooks we get are likely not going to do crap for this team window. At some point you need to take a risk to try and get to that next level—or you risk coasting at pseudo contender status. That would be my pro trade argument. But I’d only go Snell/Filler Pick(s) for Dudley ideally (cheaper and Y2 no opt out); Dun/Snell/Filler picks for AA if I was certain they would resign him and Butler (assuming AA plays well). I don’t see anyone for Taj—and unless we are getting some crazy value no way he’s traded now (the low probability just went to 0).
Overall I’m with you –glass half full as I don’t think we have played to capabilities but the window for that to happen is closing fast. I think lineup change with Gibson as starting PF obviously starts now—Dunleavy should be darn soon, team is trying harder—but execution doesn't fix itself overnight. Post ASB we will want to see a more consistent Rose playing much better D and not jacking so many 3s.
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:17 pm
by Polynice4Pippen
Honestly I'd still rather be in this position than the one we were in in 2011, steamrolling our way through the regular season to the best record in the league, beating up on Miami but knowing that they lurked if they ever put it all together. This 2015 team has another gear that that 2011 team simply didn't have. They may never end up reaching it, but I'd rather take my chances that they do and get to the playoffs healthy and clicking with an actual championship upside and ceiling. A lot of work to do though obviously.
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Re: Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:35 am
by Googjob
Ice Man wrote:The 2010-11 team would wipe the floor with this year's unit. Jo was much better than he is now, Derrick is much better than he is now, the bench mob smothered the opposition, and -- the critical point -- the 2010-11 team was delighted to play each and every game. Young guys excited as hell to take the court. Not a bunch of jaded veterans deciding which day to rest, and not fussing much after each loss.
I think we tend to overate the 2010-2011 despite it being really good.
Keith Bogans was playing 18 minutes a game. Ronnie Brewer was playing 22 minutes a game. I'll take our current wing situation (when healthy) over those wings any day of the week.
Also remember that the East was weaker back then. In fact, I think the league as a whole was weaker. It was a lot easier to get to 62 games than it is now.
And that 2010-2011 team struggled at times. They were 9-8 at one point. And they were running players into the ground while this team seems to be taking a more cautious approach with minutes.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:45 am
by NDave79
I think it is hard to not put to much emphasis on what is happening right now when it comes to the Bulls and the players. Their are so many ups and downs with the Bulls and the players and its easy to think that what is happening at this point in time is the truth. When a player is hitting the point where you expect his age to possibly dictate the regression of his play, then I think it is fair to value what he is doing at the present time more than other situations. I admit to being guilty of putting to much emphasis on the now. I'm not sure if this is healthy, but I've learned to cope with disappointing stretches by detaching myself emotionally for a day or two and avoiding the boards. Then when things are going well, I jump back in the deep end of my Bull's obsession.
I think we are going to look back after this all plays out and identify this last recent stretch of games as one of the biggest outlier lows of the season and not indicative of this teams actual level. I think we have graduated to the level of having a team that can have a hard time getting up for games, as opposed to a group of young guns that Thibs can motivate to go "balls to the wall" for the majority of the season. I don't think we can truly judge this team until we see how they perform in the playoffs.
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:30 am
by Ice Man
RayClayMatthews wrote:Lets say Noah and Rose are Noah and Rose
Would be nice. But in half a season, Noah is a $3 million backup big and Rose is a $5 million chucking #2 guard.
So that is the team we have now. The team with MVP Rose and MVP candidate Noah, unbeatable. Absolutely unbeatable. Write in the title. But where might that team be found?
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:48 am
by RayClayMatthews
Ice Man wrote:RayClayMatthews wrote:Lets say Noah and Rose are Noah and Rose
Would be nice. But in half a season, Noah is a $3 million backup big and Rose is a $5 million chucking #2 guard.
So that is the team we have now. The team with MVP Rose and MVP candidate Noah, unbeatable. Absolutely unbeatable. Write in the title. But where might that team be found?
Im not disagreeing, but I am saying that our best bet with this roster is to let it ride unless maybe going for a wing. Do we really wanna lose Taj with how Noah is?
2011 had tons of flaws, and Derrick was better then but the whole team overall is better now, so I bet we hit at least 55 wins, if not more
Re: An Optimistic Look at the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:43 am
by Ugly Duckling
One thing I've learned is to take the regular season with a pinch of salt.