Solving our offensive hierarchy, is it possible?

[Rerisen]

Early in the year I made a thread about Rose being the 3rd option, as a way to improve the team's chances. I think now with just over half the year over, it may be time to revisit the idea.

Each person may give Rose a different timetable of patience to find his game, but for me, I think its long past the point where I expect him to get back to 100% this year, and him currently playing like the same 1st option he used to be is not ideal for this team being at its best.

Unfortunately, since that original thread, my opinion of this team's offensive talent and balance has only gone down further. I'm not sure its even possible for Butler specifically to take on more burden than he already has. By PPG he is already our 1st option, though Derrick would likely be scoring more than Jimmy if Rose was actually efficient, based on FGA.

But I see scarcely other obvious ways to reduce Rose's usage and shot attempts that are realistic. Gasol certainly can't become a bigger go-to player, we tried that to start the year, beginning games going to him in the post, and the offense was even more stagnant and mechanical and Gasol's efficiency was tanking around .520 TS%.

Meanwhile Jo, and eventually Dunleavy, as the other 2 starters have virtually no capacity to up their volume to spread the offense out more.

So I don't know what a reduced Rose role would look like. If it would be feeding Jimmy in the post early game, like we used to do Gasol. Or re-instituting a motion offense where we constantly look for Jimmy at mid-range, for cuts and quick dribble attacks. Because we can't just give it to him on the arc like he's Paul George, we've tried that most of January with Mike out and its mostly been a disaster. Jimmy is not a good attacker or playmaker from there, and his shot isn't respected enough.

To me this team has a real conundrum right now offensively. We can't win with Derrick at this mass usage level unless his efficiency improves miraculously - which I don't see happening. But I also don't see the right pieces in place on the team to tone Rose down, short of a trade to boost volume scoring ability. We don't seem to have the internal offensive talent to ramp guys up to replace his large scoring and playmaking role. Playing Aaron Brooks more and more as a pseudo Rose sidekick just feels like a terrible plan for the playoffs too.

Right now with the path we are on, our inevitable playoff exit seems almost pre-written. With Derrick putting up more inefficient games than not, and the team not having near the defense or rebounding to consistently win games vs elite teams purely on that. We didn't even have enough to win that way in 2011 and we were near top in the league in both things. This year our offensive rating and TS% is actually about the same as that squad, but we have lost our other strengths.

But I'd like to hear how many people are confident with the plan of simply praying on Rose to improve drastically. He has a 15 PER and .479 TS% in January. So much for turning it around.

[jax98]

I'm ready to write the whole year off as him coming back into NBA shape.

Having said that, he's taking too many shots by design and this is a problem. The age old "the offense will take care of itself" mantra (which has been somewhat overstated but is still present in a small capacity) is a mentality the Bulls need to rid themselves of. The offense was quite simply more effective when the ball went through the combined hands of Butler and Gasol.

Rose gunning it at 29.5 times a night (last two games) is extremely predictable for opposing defenses and it castrates versatility.

Honestly, the Bulls need to go back to swinging the ball and moving a lot off-ball like they used to. Yes, it's hard work. But instead of trying to out-talent teams, they need to out-work them.

[Rerisen]

But instead of trying to out-talent teams, they need to out-work them.

Hustle and effort has been a big mantra this year, but I think equally as important, or often confused together with it, we need to play *smarter* not just harder.

And having a better offensive plan is preeminent in doing that. Thibs has to get his laser focus off defensive practice and just getting everyone doing the close out drills or whatever, and realize this offense has just fallen into the gutter as far as rhyme or reason.

The only legit play we really have lately is the Gasol/Rose PnR on the side, but Rose often runs it too far to the baseline before making a risky jump pass or swing arm toss back to Pau, who then doesn't have enough time to properly rotate the ball on further.

What happened to the Butler/Rose high PnR from early in the year, it was a nice little weapon, now its gone.

We can put some offensive ugliness on Dunleavy being gone, and his return will help spacing for everyone, but I really do believe the book is out on the Bulls, and even with Mike, its not going to be that hard for teams to mostly keep packing it in on us, fearing Rose and Butler driving far more than Dunleavy and his 1.8 threes a game.

Thibs might still need to consider a starting lineup change. Gasol and Noah are not a good big man combo to put with Rose and Butler, their strengths almost oppose each other.

A stretch 4 starting makes all the sense in the world for this team, but because he's a rookie not fully ready, and because of common sense team politics, we just aren't ready to go to that this year.

[Dajody10]

We're ONLY winning a title with Rose as the #1 scoring option, but he needs to play a helluva lot better than he is right now. Pau Gasol doesn't have the ability to be an #1 option, he didn't when he was 26, 28 or 30 - what makes you think he can be one now? Pau is typically a great second option, which is how the Lakers won those two titles and made the Finals three years in a row. As much as JB has improved, a lot of his game is really defined by the whistle - he's still not a great shooter and he is not a great finisher. Butler is the PERFECT #3 guy on a title contender......so it all comes down to Rose, I have no idea if he'll ever get back to the old Rose. Personally, I don't believe it's physical at all. When Rose still says, I'm attacking the basket, he gets to the rim every single time. I personally think Rose is mentally broken - and I have no idea if it'll ever come back. Rose has to play at an All Star, if not MVP level, in order for this group to win a title. This is why getting Melo was so important - it would have allowed Rose to slide into the #2 scoring role since Melo has always been a better natural scorer than Rose, even during his MVP year. Rose was obviously the better player, but Melo would have slid Rose to #2 - which would have made the Bulls a helluva lot better.

As it always does, this season comes down to Rose - unless he plays at an All Star level, AT LEAST, we're getting bounced in the 1st or 2nd round. Also, we need another wing, for the 100th time - go get Afflalo already!

[DanTown8587]

Derrick Rose has a usage of 32% paired with a TS% of .507. That usage is sixth in the league (Westbrook, Bryant, Wade, Cousins, James) are higher, Anthony and Harden is slightly below).

Pau Gasol has a usage of 24.2% paired with a TS% of .544. That usage is 53rd in the league and just behind Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Gary Neal, and Victor Oladipo while being ahead of Tim Hardaway Jr, Tim Duncan, Greg Monroe, and Paul Milsap.

Jimmy Butler has a usage of 21.2% paired with a TS% of .579. That usage is 99th in the league and tied with DJ Augustin and just behind Nene, Jarrett Jack, and Andre Drumoond and just ahead of Darren Collison, Jordan Hill, and Langston Galloway.

One of those is producing HORRIBLY considering their volume'; one of them is producing at an average rate considering their usage; a third is producing quite efficiently and probably should get more shots.

The Bulls simply aren't going to be a consistent team with Derrick Rose taking 26 shots while taking only two FT and making one three point shot.

[coldfish]

I do not think that Rose either has the capability or the willingness to be a low volume, high efficiency, 3rd option type set up guard. The odds of him becoming that are far, far less than him becoming 80%+ of his old self by the end of the year.

I really don't know what the team should do at this point. The team really does seem like it has tuned Thibs out. They play hard when they want to play and they execute the way they want to play. Its coming from the team leaders too. Noah, Rose and Gasol. Rose just doesn't look good at all and hasn't for a while.

I don't think its anywhere near the point of blowing it up but I sure don't feel comfortable trying to trade future assets for a win now effort that is probably doomed to failure.

If this continues and the Bulls flame out in the postseason, I think the team seriously needs to consider revamping itself around Butler and Mirotic (yes, I said that) with a new coach (yes, I said that too). Rose, Noah and Gasol should be gone.

[Jimako10]

I'm ready to write the whole year off as him coming back into NBA shape.

Having said that, he's taking too many shots by design and this is a problem. The age old "the offense will take care of itself" mantra (which has been somewhat overstated but is still present in a small capacity) is a mentality the Bulls need to rid themselves of. The offense was quite simply more effective when the ball went through the combined hands of Butler and Gasol.

Rose gunning it at 29.5 times a night (last two games) is extremely predictable for opposing defenses and it castrates versatility.

Honestly, the Bulls need to go back to swinging the ball and moving a lot off-ball like they used to. Yes, it's hard work. But instead of trying to out-talent teams, they need to out-work them.

I tend to agree with this. Rose just played over 40 minutes in back to back games for the first time 3 years. Before the ACL, he would attack the basket relentlessly due to his superb conditioning. To go from your body not playing any games for 2 + years, to playing around 80-90 games in 7 months is probably not something his body will get used to right off the bat, almost like being a rookie again in the NBA trying to adjust from playing 30-35 college games a year to sometimes triple that for an NBA season. Having said that, that's probably the best argument (along with his poor shooting, which might be a function of his conditioning), for him to take a step back and become the 3rd option/facilitator/closer for this season.

[DanTown8587]

We're three posts in and we're still seeing "the Bulls are winning only if Derrick carries us" and while that's my signature, that's more or less a nod to the fact that Derrick has no desire to change his game to the roster and he's going to jack up shots instead of look for better options.

I don't think Gasol was all that aggressive last night in calling for the ball, but Derrick has to realize that this team does not need him to go 2011 playoff mode and just like then, when he does that, the offense struggles and the Bulls are going to lose games because of it.

[greenl]

I'm ready to write the whole year off as him coming back into NBA shape.
.

I'm right there with you. This year is a lost cause. 1st or maybe 2nd round exit, at best. Though- I'm not sure if Rose is in bad shape. I think he can't adjust to his decreased athleticism. His lone dominant trait when he came into the league was his athleticism. He hasn't developed any other skill (shooting, ball handling, passing, etc.) well enough to compensate for his decreased athleticism. Maybe he will- maybe he won't- topic for another thread. But as it stands now- this Bulls team isn't poised to make a deep playoff run.

[Dajody10]

Rose is fine physically, it's all mental with him.

[Dajody10]

And last time I checked, trading Dunleavy, Snell and our 1st round pick for Arron Afflalo isn't mortgaging the future. It's trading our garbage and a late 1st for a need. Sorry to burst everyones bubbles, but Mirotic / Butler / McDermott ain't leading this team anywhere close to a title, so you might as well load up with this roster (without mortgaging the future) and try to win now.

[Rerisen]

If this continues and the Bulls flame out in the postseason, I think the team seriously needs to consider revamping itself around Butler and Mirotic (yes, I said that) with a new coach (yes, I said that too). Rose, Noah and Gasol should be gone.

This is where Mark K. comes in and says this is never going to happen so we should stop talking about it.

But yes, the next few years could be really ugly for this team if they don't put it together here and at least make a great ECF showing.

Because we know they don't have the stones to try and move Rose (if that is even remotely possible) let alone Noah and Gasol. But if they flame out, I don't see how you fix this team with the same general cast going forward. This is likely to be Gasol's best year and he's already up/down. The next 2 seasons of his deal could be Boozer or Ben Wallace like decline from him and are we just going to keep starting him? The defense will never recover if we do.

The sad thing is the Bulls tried to play this clever short and long game at the same time with Mirotic and McDermott, but if they are unwilling to make huge changes such as Noah or Rose being offloaded, then those rookies will be pointless additions right now because we will still be waiting out 3 years on Rose and Gasol before we can really reorient the team.

Best case they would have in failing this year is trade Noah or Gibson for a better starting wing, pray on health from the remaining bigs and try to contend for 2 more years with this basic core before turning it over to whoever we have left that is good beyond that point.

But we shouldn't indulge the doom and gloom path too much here as I'm soliciting answers for this season yet. They certainly aren't easy ones though.

[Rerisen]

We're three posts in and we're still seeing "the Bulls are winning only if Derrick carries us" and while that's my signature, that's more or less a nod to the fact that Derrick has no desire to change his game to the roster and he's going to jack up shots instead of look for better options.

We keep saying this, that he has no desire or willingness to change, but we know damn well Thibs has not and probably will not, even try asking that of Derrick.

But he should. Unfortunately, Thibs simply encourages Derrick to do whatever the hell he wants "offense will take care of itself" even praising and encouraging his play after that GS game, by saying how much resilience he had to make the big shot after playing so badly the whole game before that.

Part of this is on the coach if he doesn't see the problem and try to remedy it.

His idea of opening up the offense to the players, presumably to help Derrick, who was pretty much only doing good in iso situations this year, has backfired.

[DanTown8587]

We're three posts in and we're still seeing "the Bulls are winning only if Derrick carries us" and while that's my signature, that's more or less a nod to the fact that Derrick has no desire to change his game to the roster and he's going to jack up shots instead of look for better options.

We keep saying this, that he has no desire or willingness to change, but we know damn well Thibs has not and probably will not, even try asking that of Derrick.

But he should. Unfortunately, Thibs simply encourages Derrick to do whatever the hell he wants "offense will take care of itself" even praising and encouraging his play after that GS game, by saying how much resilience he had to make the big shot after playing so badly the whole game before that.

Part of this is on the coach if he doesn't see the problem and try to remedy it.

His idea of opening up the offense to the players, presumably to help Derrick, who was pretty much only doing good in iso situations this year, has backfired.

Fun stat: do you know that SportsVU tracks assist opportunities created per game? Anyway, here is a fun matching game of guys by assist opportunities created per game

19.0
18.2
14.3
13.6
12.9
11.8
10.6
10.2
9.4
9.3

Now, here are the names

Wall
Paul
Curry
Westbrook
Lillard
Bryant
Irving
Parker
Rose
DJ Augustin

That's horrific how low Rose is considering he's the lead guard on this team. Whether that's on Thibs or on Derrick I don't know but I agree, Thibs is allowing it to happen and it drastically needs to change.

[suckfish]

More concerned about the fact that the players have decided to quit playing for Thibs rather than how Rose has been playing. This is ultimately what is wrong with the Bulls. The effort, intensity, and concentration has almost completely vanished.

Rose is certainly still the #1 option.

He needs to cut the threes out, other than open spot ups. He needs to get his teammates involved more.. Cut the turnovers down. However, I have liked how he appears to be back quickness and agility wise going to the rim. When he is controlled and attacking when he has the right opportunity he looks great. He is who he is, you can't just reinvent your entire game this far into a career.

I think we need to get more post ups for Pau.

I think we need Dunleavy back pronto.

I think we need to stop screwing around with Niko at the 3 and play him regular consistent minutes at the 4.

I worry about Noah. He looks physically diminished and weak out there. He gets out muscled and bullied more than ever before.

But yeah, Thibs has lost this team and that is my main concern.

[Rerisen]

Rose
DJ Augustin

That's horrific how low Rose is considering he's the lead guard on this team. Whether that's on Thibs or on Derrick I don't know but I agree, Thibs is allowing it to happen and it drastically needs to change.

This team is only on pace for like 4 more wins than last year. While I think that's a disgrace for the FO based on the money and flexibility they had to improve us, its also of course because, ironic to the above, Rose has been no better than DJ Augustin was last year.

He's better on defense - when he tries - which is once every 5 games, but way less efficient and isn't setting up people like DJ at least tried to.

It's amazing to say that a team with a 30-18 record has been disappointing, top to bottom organization wise this year, the FO, down to the players, down to the coaching. But that just speaks to the talent and opportunity they already had here, that is heading down a path of being squandered.

They are lucky that the pieces (and or assets for those wanting a mid-season boost) are still in place to salvage things, but there seems like there is no sense of urgency anywhere. The FO is busy looking at 'DJ Kennedy', the players are still sleepwalking every other game, and Thibs has no answers but repeating we have to work and grind.

[RedBulls23]

Yes, ideally Derrick should take less shots, but is it because he's refusing to take a back seat or is it Thibs and his teammates want him to be the focal point? Or is it both?

Last night shot going into the 2nd OT is a prime example. Why is a play being drawn up for Rose to isolate and take the final shot when Jimmy was the guy playing the best?

I don't think it's just a Derrick thing, it's a team thing.

[RedBulls23]

Remember when Derrick says that his teammates encourage him to keep shooting? Thibs also is telling him to keep attacking and shooting. "Derrick just needs to attack and go."

[Rerisen]

Remember when Derrick says that his teammates encourage him to keep shooting? Thibs also is telling him to keep attacking and shooting. "Derrick just needs to attack and go."

Of course they are. This year is all about rolling the dice and seeing what Rose still has in the tank as a superstar.

This team feels like it has unfulfilled business from 2011, with the team designed a certain way - around Derrick Rose.

Pau wasn't a big enough acquisition to change that, nor dumping Deng. Obviously to Thibs/Noah/Rose, the leaders on this team, this is their year to make a go of it in the same fashion they have been robbed from doing the last 3 years.

The question is though *should* this year be all about putting our stakes in the hands of Rose trying to be his MVP self again, and at what point, do you say enough evidence is enough, that it isn't likely to happen, so lets start re-arranging the team ahead of time, so we don't go down in burning flames in a specific way in the playoffs, that right now looks so very easy to predict how its going to end if we don't change something.

[Professor Frink]

And last time I checked, trading Dunleavy, Snell and our 1st round pick for Arron Afflalo isn't mortgaging the future. It's trading our garbage and a late 1st for a need. Sorry to burst everyones bubbles, but Mirotic / Butler / McDermott ain't leading this team anywhere close to a title, so you might as well load up with this roster (without mortgaging the future) and try to win now.

It's not mortgaging the future, it just doesn't work under the cap. You need to deal Taj and not only do we need Taj with Noah's health a question mark, but Denver doesn't need him at all. We're not a good trade partner for Afflalo.