The 4th big catch 22

[coldfish]

There is a situation with the bigs where the fanbase can't be happy. Let's go over the reality of how it will work.

Between Noah and Gasol, you are going to see a very large number of games missed. Its probably only going to get worse as they age. In every game they miss (or your 3rd big misses), your 4th big becomes a critical rotation player. That might be 60 games per year. If that guy sucks, then its going to really hurt the team. Imagine if the Bulls had a Kirk Hinrich type player as their 4th big and that guy ended up playing 20mpg+ 60 times per year.

OTOH, if that 4th big is good, its inevitable that there are going to be games where one of the top 3 guys struggle. When that happens, the 4th big would have been a better option and the fanbase will be angry that the 4th didn't play instead of the guy who struggled.

Catch 22.

Personally, I would rather have a quality 4th big and deal with the fanbase upset about their guy not getting minutes instead of taking real losses due to a bad player taking up minutes but I doubt that many people see it that way.

This thread is really about the team going forward. I'm fairly confident that one of the bigs will be salary dumped this offseason. Whatever cheap big the Bulls pick up to replace him is going to be a lightning rod if he is good OR bad. Its just kind of funny to think about the no win situation.

[MisterRoy]

Taj seems like the odd man out, be it good or bad.

Noah isn't going anywhere (think of morale alone), Pau we wouldn't trade cause then we have no post presence and no real 7-footer and Niko just shows how much he can play when he gets minutes. Whenever Taj is out, I think Niko proves he is more valuable than Taj to this team. Yesterday's game is a great example.

[dougthonus]

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, the Bulls stick with the four bigs they have. That would give them four quality bigs.

1: No big plays over 30 minutes a night except in OT games.
2: Close with whomever the best two bigs have been.

I guess the concern there would be if you have one or two guys who are primadonnas and can't cope without starting/finishing. Pau Gasol seems a bit like that to me. I think Mirotic as a young guy won't have that concern. I think Taj has got the right team attitude, but i'd be concerned that it's worn on him for having it too long.

I think Noah would be okay playing whatever role is necessary, but you never know.

If all four guys could live with the above, it seems the above plan would generally work. You have 96 minutes per night, if you play them 28/28/20/20 when everyone is healthy then I think that's probably okay more or less for everyone especially since, as you noted, there are going to be lots of missed games where guys play more.

[TheSuzerain]

I think it's fairly obvious Taj is going to be moved.

He plays the same position as Niko, his contract is movable, and there should be a market for him.

[MGB8]

It's not really going to work in the long term, because Pau, Noah and even Taj have egos, while Niko is going to be too good to not have on the floor - he looked like by far our best big yesterday. Hopefully Pau's ego declines with age and he's willing to be a reserve.

Otherwise, honestly, it might be best to ship Pau out next season (with his agreement, probably to whatever team his brother lands on so they can play together a bit). And Taj probably doesn't have a long term future with the Bulls unless he is willing to accept never being a starter.

[DanTown8587]

There is a situation with the bigs where the fanbase can't be happy. Let's go over the reality of how it will work.

Between Noah and Gasol, you are going to see a very large number of games missed. Its probably only going to get worse as they age. In every game they miss (or your 3rd big misses), your 4th big becomes a critical rotation player. That might be 60 games per year. If that guy sucks, then its going to really hurt the team. Imagine if the Bulls had a Kirk Hinrich type player as their 4th big and that guy ended up playing 20mpg+ 60 times per year.

OTOH, if that 4th big is good, its inevitable that there are going to be games where one of the top 3 guys struggle. When that happens, the 4th big would have been a better option and the fanbase will be angry that the 4th didn't play instead of the guy who struggled.

Catch 22.

Personally, I would rather have a quality 4th big and deal with the fanbase upset about their guy not getting minutes instead of taking real losses due to a bad player taking up minutes but I doubt that many people see it that way.

This thread is really about the team going forward. I'm fairly confident that one of the bigs will be salary dumped this offseason. Whatever cheap big the Bulls pick up to replace him is going to be a lightning rod if he is good OR bad. Its just kind of funny to think about the no win situation.

In theory I don't have a problem with the four bigs the Bulls have all being on the same roster. The problem is in practice Thibs is going to overplay three of them and sit one of them while the wing depth is below average.

The Bulls don't need a massively great fouth big; Jason Smith-esque level bigs are there in FA every year and that's all they truly need.

Also, Taj nor Noah are guys that are going to age well and with both at/over 30 so I'm not sure you want to keep these guys at the salary they're getting paid going forward. Noah is more likely to help you since he's longer and can play the 5, but I wonder how well he'll adjust to being a step or two slower while also being a little smaller than most C.

[coldfish]

You have 96 minutes per night, if you play them 28/28/20/20 when everyone is healthy then I think that's probably okay more or less for everyone especially since, as you noted, there are going to be lots of missed games where guys play more.

That's what really needs to be stressed. Gasol is 34 and has a history of missing games. Noah is around 30 and the same with him. The nights where all 4 bigs are playing is going to be the exception, not the rule. On the majority of your games over the course of a season, that 4th big is actually going to be your 3rd big and the first guy off the bench.

Now, let's be honest. Most teams don't have 4 quality bigs. Its a luxury. That said, its not an unused luxury. The teams with crappy 3rd and 4th bigs pay a price for it far more than you do with a 4th wing, for example. Given the injury history of the Bulls and their title aspirations, this isn't a small deal.

[TheSuzerain]

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, the Bulls stick with the four bigs they have. That would give them four quality bigs.

1: No big plays over 30 minutes a night except in OT games.
2: Close with whomever the best two bigs have been.

I guess the concern there would be if you have one or two guys who are primadonnas and can't cope without starting/finishing. Pau Gasol seems a bit like that to me. I think Mirotic as a young guy won't have that concern. I think Taj has got the right team attitude, but i'd be concerned that it's worn on him for having it too long.

I think Noah would be okay playing whatever role is necessary, but you never know.

If all four guys could live with the above, it seems the above plan would generally work. You have 96 minutes per night, if you play them 28/28/20/20 when everyone is healthy then I think that's probably okay more or less for everyone especially since, as you noted, there are going to be lots of missed games where guys play more.

That's still a crummy plan in my eyes even if all four could live with it morale-wise.

It's just poor asset management to be so invested in a position that you'd have to split minutes like that. It lowers our ceiling because you'll inevitably have two of the four riding the pine.

[Mech Engineer]

I think this is one of the worst cult thought process on this forum. It is not a big deal as we are seeing this year with all the injuries and if anyone thinks it is going to decrease next year magically, they are in a bubble. It is probably going to get worse with Gasol and Noah especially considering Noah will be playing much harder next year(for a new contract and feeling better). Noah playing harder/better also means he has the tendency to get injured.

I think Mirotic fans aside, he is going to be a 2 to 3 year project which blends in beautifully with Gasol gone or Noah declining. I know you have the Taj traders but you cannot replace the bigs with rookies or low skilled bigs.

If Noah or Taj or Gasol are going to be traded, it is going to be because there was a "big" problem in the playoffs like Nene dominating or Mozgov dominating which means there is a need for a bigger, stronger big.

Contrary to popular opinion, it is tougher to replace bigs with a low cost big compared to a wing/guard like we have seen with Derrick hurt.

About the salary, I think it depends on what happens in the playoffs. If the bigs struggle(means Bulls lose early), then you need to trade to get a better fit. But, you need an old vet rather than drafting a rookie.

[DanTown8587]

You have 96 minutes per night, if you play them 28/28/20/20 when everyone is healthy then I think that's probably okay more or less for everyone especially since, as you noted, there are going to be lots of missed games where guys play more.

That's what really needs to be stressed. Gasol is 34 and has a history of missing games. Noah is around 30 and the same with him. The nights where all 4 bigs are playing is going to be the exception, not the rule. On the majority of your games over the course of a season, that 4th big is actually going to be your 3rd big and the first guy off the bench.

Now, let's be honest. Most teams don't have 4 quality bigs. Its a luxury. That said, its not an unused luxury. The teams with crappy 3rd and 4th bigs pay a price for it far more than you do with a 4th wing, for example. Given the injury history of the Bulls and their title aspirations, this isn't a small deal.

Even if I believe you need to have four high quality big men (I tend to believe 3.5 is really the best) because of injury concerns, you don't need to pay all of them what they're getting paid. Taj is making around 8-9 million a year while Dunleavy makes 3.3 to be your starting SF, any team in the league would be better with a 8-9 million SF and then the Bulls having to find a fourth big for 3-3.5 million.

EDIT You do realize that as you say this, the Bulls are paying 18 million for their PG who has missed close to 175 games the past three years + the last three playoffs? That they have eight wing/backcourt players and only Rose is making above the tax payer exception? The salary structure on this team is absurd.

[coldfish]

In theory I don't have a problem with the four bigs the Bulls have all being on the same roster. The problem is in practice Thibs is going to overplay three of them and sit one of them while the wing depth is below average.

The Bulls don't need a massively great fouth big; Jason Smith-esque level bigs are there in FA every year and that's all they truly need.

Also, Taj nor Noah are guys that are going to age well and with both at/over 30 so I'm not sure you want to keep these guys at the salary they're getting paid going forward. Noah is more likely to help you since he's longer and can play the 5, but I wonder how well he'll adjust to being a step or two slower while also being a little smaller than most C.

I'm pretty confident one of the bigs is gone. I don't think its really in question. The issue is that its going to be a salary dump, not a talent swap.

Regardless, Jason Smith is my concern. I think that your 4th big is going to have a lot of games (40+) where he plays 20 minutes or more and if that guy is Jason Smith, its going to lose you a bunch of games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hja02.html

Lost in the talk of the injuries to other players is the fact that Gasol is having a fantastic year as far as health and minutes. Odds are that he regresses next year in that regard forcing others to pick up the slack.

[Flopper]

TBH there's no reason to get rid of any of them yet. They're all locked into reasonable contracts, which will look even better if the cap jumps this summer.

Another thing to consider is that it's not likely this team can survive defensively with only one defensive minded big on the roster, especially if that guy just turned 30 and has a history of missing large portions of time in the regular season.

The only scenario that seems plausible is one where the Bulls package Taj + young players/picks for a stud wing and a young big with defensive upside. Given the team's track record, chances of a deal like that materializing are remote at best.

[blumeany]

I think it's fairly obvious Taj is going to be moved.

He plays the same position as Niko, his contract is movable, and there should be a market for him.

Not to mention that Taj just hasn't been that good. Not that Niko has been perfect, but he has more upside. Taj, for what he does, has been down this year. I know part or all of it is injury, but I don't know if I can ever trust that Rose, Noah, and Taj will ever be healthy for a whole season again.

[DanTown8587]

In theory I don't have a problem with the four bigs the Bulls have all being on the same roster. The problem is in practice Thibs is going to overplay three of them and sit one of them while the wing depth is below average.

The Bulls don't need a massively great fouth big; Jason Smith-esque level bigs are there in FA every year and that's all they truly need.

Also, Taj nor Noah are guys that are going to age well and with both at/over 30 so I'm not sure you want to keep these guys at the salary they're getting paid going forward. Noah is more likely to help you since he's longer and can play the 5, but I wonder how well he'll adjust to being a step or two slower while also being a little smaller than most C.

I'm pretty confident one of the bigs is gone. I don't think its really in question. The issue is that its going to be a salary dump, not a talent swap.

Regardless, Jason Smith is my concern. I think that your 4th big is going to have a lot of games (40+) where he plays 20 minutes or more and if that guy is Jason Smith, its going to lose you a bunch of games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... hja02.html

Lost in the talk of the injuries to other players is the fact that Gasol is having a fantastic year as far as health and minutes. Odds are that he regresses next year in that regard forcing others to pick up the slack.

Ok, so Jason Smith plays 20+ minutes some nights. Considering the other two bigs are either Gasol, Noah, and Mirotic I fail to see the issue. Jason Smith can't play 30 minutes a night but if he had to play 20 minutes because you had injuries, you don't have a bad rotation.

Here is the fourth big on top teams:

Atlanta - Elton Brand/Mike Muscala
Cleveland - Shawn Marion/Brendan Haywood
Washington - Kevin Seraphin
Toronto - Tyler Hansbrough/Chuck Hayes
Golden State - Fetzus Eseli
Portland - Thomas Robinson/Joel Freeland
Memphis - Jon Leuer
LA Clippers - Glen Davis
Houston - Josh Smith/Joey Dorsey

Good teams find a way to get talent on the cheap and then have depth without paying premium prices for it.

There are very few teams with great big man rotations. OKC is one but they just traded for it and I doubt they pay all five guys (Ibaka, Kanter, McGary, Adams, Collison).

Part of the problem is that the Bulls have used 2nd round picks the past two years on useless bigs (Bairstow and Murphy) and given vet min deals to Nazr so they haven't developed a big nor have they had a roster spot to give to a big.

[coldfish]

You have 96 minutes per night, if you play them 28/28/20/20 when everyone is healthy then I think that's probably okay more or less for everyone especially since, as you noted, there are going to be lots of missed games where guys play more.

That's what really needs to be stressed. Gasol is 34 and has a history of missing games. Noah is around 30 and the same with him. The nights where all 4 bigs are playing is going to be the exception, not the rule. On the majority of your games over the course of a season, that 4th big is actually going to be your 3rd big and the first guy off the bench.

Now, let's be honest. Most teams don't have 4 quality bigs. Its a luxury. That said, its not an unused luxury. The teams with crappy 3rd and 4th bigs pay a price for it far more than you do with a 4th wing, for example. Given the injury history of the Bulls and their title aspirations, this isn't a small deal.

Even if I believe you need to have four high quality big men (I tend to believe 3.5 is really the best) because of injury concerns, you don't need to pay all of them what they're getting paid. Taj is making around 8-9 million a year while Dunleavy makes 3.3 to be your starting SF, any team in the league would be better with a 8-9 million SF and then the Bulls having to find a fourth big for 3-3.5 million.

EDIT You do realize that as you say this, the Bulls are paying 18 million for their PG who has missed close to 175 games the past three years + the last three playoffs? That they have eight wing/backcourt players and only Rose is making above the tax payer exception? The salary structure on this team is absurd.

Point 1, you really can't look at one of them in a vacuum. Pau Gasol only makes $7M per year. The primary reason for this is his age and subsequent unreliability. Chicago's overall expenditure on big men is not that high. This year, Noah + Gasol + Gibson + Mirotic make about 32.5M. There are a lot of top level players who make more than 20M as big men by themselves.

Point 2, I have been saying for a very long time that Chicago's issue is Rose. He is paid to be a superstar. If he isn't playing or is playing but only at mediocre levels, the team has no shot of competing due to the massive salary misallocation. He makes about as much as Gasol + Gibson + Mirotic combined. I agree with you that this is nuts.

........

I think people are missing the point here. I'm extremely confident that one of the bigs is gone and I'm not arguing against it. I'm just pointing out that the cheap person who replaces him is going to play a lot. If he plays well, then people are going to be angry that he isn't higher in the rotation. If he plays poorly, the Bulls are going to lose a lot of games due to it. Catch 22.

[Mech Engineer]

TBH there's no reason to get rid of any of them yet. They're all locked into reasonable contracts, which will look even better if the cap jumps this summer.

Another thing to consider is that it's not likely this team can survive defensively with only one defensive minded big on the roster, especially if that guy just turned 30 and has a history of missing large portions of time in the regular season.

The only scenario that seems plausible is one where the Bulls package Taj + young players/picks for a stud wing and a young big with defensive upside. Given the team's track record, chances of a deal like that materializing are remote at best.

Yeah...it is not realistic in every way as you said whether it is health, getting value for anyone and still contending, getting another big at that value contract. There is no such stud wing in the market and if there is one...that will cost a lot more in assets + salary(more like Melo's salary).

[TheSuzerain]

I think it's fairly obvious Taj is going to be moved.

He plays the same position as Niko, his contract is movable, and there should be a market for him.

Not to mention that Taj just hasn't been that good. Not that Niko has been perfect, but he has more upside. Taj, for what he does, has been down this year. I know part or all of it is injury, but I don't know if I can ever trust that Rose, Noah, and Taj will ever be healthy for a whole season again.

Taj has had a down year in some regards, but I still consider him a very good PF, especially in Thibs system.

I think he is the correct big to move, but it's not because I dislike his play.

[7thwatch]

Good thread. Noah and Gasol will miss games, so I agree that the 4th big becomes important on this team. IMO, the ideal solution is to move Gibson for a mythical 3 that can also play small-ball 4. When Noah/Gasol misses time, you can give some of the extra minutes big-man minutes to the small-ball 4, with the 4th big getting spot back-up center minutes. That could mitigate the role of the 4th big somewhat. This is as opposed to moving Taj for say, a smaller wing, where neither Jimmy nor that wing could really take meaningful minutes at the 4.

[DanTown8587]

Point 1, you really can't look at one of them in a vacuum. Pau Gasol only makes $7M per year. The primary reason for this is his age and subsequent unreliability. Chicago's overall expenditure on big men is not that high. This year, Noah + Gasol + Gibson + Mirotic make about 32.5M. There are a lot of top level players who make more than 20M as big men by themselves.

It's not a vacuum. Let's say that either one of Taj or Gasol starts alongside Noah. That means you're paying of your two bigs seven million+ a year to be a 20-25 minute guy (that's an overpay) and paying another one (Mirotic) to basically play spot minutes as needed at 5.5 million a year, another overpay.

Most of the teams in this league CAN'T afford to pay four bigs 5 million + because of how limited it makes you on the perimeter. Sure you can maybe extend a big or two but the Bulls used 13 million dollars of cap space on two bigs and if they weren't playing Niko out of position at the 3, he'd be getting DNP-CD/sub five minutes whenever the team was healthy. You can't have a guy making that much money as an insurance policy against injury to your big men when you're also looking at a wing rotation of Dunleavy, Snell, McDermott, Hinrich, Brooks, Moore alongside Butler/Rose.

This is back to the Omer argument: there is no problem having Asik as a fourth big making 2-3 million like he did his first two years; there's a massive problem paying him eight million a year + to be a fourth big who plays 10-15 minutes a night.

I think people are missing the point here. I'm extremely confident that one of the bigs is gone and I'm not arguing against it. I'm just pointing out that the cheap person who replaces him is going to play a lot. If he plays well, then people are going to be angry that he isn't higher in the rotation. If he plays poorly, the Bulls are going to lose a lot of games due to it. Catch 22.

As long as the Bulls don't decide that they have to rely on vet min buyouts, 2nd round picks, or Bairstow, I think they'll be fine having to spend 3-4 million on a backup fourth big. I also don't think any logical person would argue this fourth big should ever get minutes over the three bigs that do stay. It would be like saying Snell should get minutes over Butler if he played well as Dunleavy's backup/replacement starter.

[TheSuzerain]

Good thread. Noah and Gasol will miss games, so I agree that the 4th big becomes important on this team. IMO, the ideal solution is to move Gibson for a mythical 3 that can also play small-ball 4. When Noah/Gasol misses time, you can give some of the extra minutes big-man minutes to the small-ball 4, with the 4th big getting spot back-up center minutes. That could mitigate the role of the 4th big somewhat. This is as opposed to moving Taj for say, a smaller wing, where neither Jimmy nor that wing could really take meaningful minutes at the 4.

You just described Tobias Harris.