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Blue Ninja wrote:Please post this with the finals thread:

HC Jason Kidd
PG: George Hill (39) - Mo Williams (20) - Brian Roberts
SG: Dwyane Wade (40) - Jeremy Lamb (5) - Will Barton
SF: Carmelo Anthony (40) - Rodney Hood - TJ Warren
PF: Nene Hilario (32) - Lavoy Allen/Richard Jefferson (12)
C: Marc Gasol (40) - Andrea Bargnani/Birdman (12)

Matchups:

HC: Although both coaches are relatively young and inexperienced, Jason has the advantage of having both coached and played in the playoffs and played and won a NBA championship. Every coach will tell you the NBA is a different game and there hasn't been a first time playoff coach who has won since 1981 in Pat Riley. It's a different game now and every little bit matters. New playoff coaches have a hard time winning.

PG: Stephen Curry is a monster, no doubt, but George Hill isn't bad himself. George is a 16 ppg, 4.7 apg to 1.7 tpg, and a good shooter and driver to the rim on offense. But where George will give us the most boost is in his defense. Having a 6'8" wingspan and being very quick, George has been able to contain Curry to 21.5ppg, 7.5 apg to 3tpg, 1 spg and a shooting percentage of just 42% the last two years they have faced off. He has the track record and ability of limiting Steph.

SG: Can you say mismatch? Wade should be able to eat Redick/Belinelli alive on offense and is still an elite defender to shut them down.

SF: Although Carroll is a good defender, Melo still has been able to feast on him. In the last two years Melo has 27.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.3 apg to 2.3 tpg and shoots 45% vs Carroll. Proven not being able to slow down or stop Melo.

PF: Nene can contain Dirk. He has size, length and ability to do so. He has proven this over the last two years when he has held Dirk to 13.5 ppg, 6.25 rpg and only 32% shooting from the field. Nene is a proven defender who will throw Dirk off his game.

C: Marc is obviously the better player and can last longer in the game than Bogut. Obviously an advantage here.

6th man: Really the only other major part of the rotation in the playoffs is the 6th man. Well, it doesn't get much better than Mo. Mo is a playoff tested PG who still has game. He dropped 52 earlier this year and is averaging 19 ppg, 7 apg to 2.8 tpg, in 33mpg for the Hornets. He can still distribute, score, penetrate, play off the ball on offense. He's a decent defender who will be minimized by our system, coach and players around him. This is a clear mismatch off the bench.

Rest of Bench: Depending on if we need spacing or defense/rebounding we will bring in two of Lavoy Allen, Andrea Bargnani, Richard Jefferson, and Birdman. All have playoff experience and have played well in the playoffs. To spell Melo, Lamb or Hood will get minimal minutes depending if we need a bigger shooter in Hood or a smaller slasher/shooter in Lamb. Both can play good defense and Lamb has playoff experience.

All in all, this matchup is a great advantage to the Celtics in many different aspects. Celtics have the star power advantage, the coaching advantage, defense advantage, playoff experience advantage, etc. Working through Melo and Wade, this should be a won series.

mattyj912 wrote:I go with the celtics.

I do want to say though that some of those stats above are misleading. Saying player A has done this against player B in the last 2 seasons is talking about a sample size of 3-4 games when the guys are in different conferences. How much has Nene actually guarded Dirk in the last two years? Number of minutes? Im betting it’s a really small sample.

To me I just don’t think the blazers have the defenders to pack the paint and stop wade, melo, and gasol from getting their points inside. Caroll can slow down melo and bogut might slow down gasol, but wade will abuse redick. If you want to say wade doesn’t stay healthy, then bogut doesn’t stay healthy either and the celtics now pound it inside to gasol.

Ps does anyone else have trouble typing posts up? If I want to type anything substantial I just have to do it in a word document and copy paste. I type words in here and only about half of them show up. Is that a realgm thing or my computer?

Brybeck01 wrote:still salty from the ND loss last night. Checked in to see we had a low low turnout vote wise and my Grizz lost. Hopefully this finals gets more votes.

I feel the Grizz would have matched up better against the Celtics. I'm leaning Celtics, but Im gonna think on it some more and wait for Mark K to make his case.

Crazy that Blue Ninja quit the BAT only to have his team make the Year 1 finals.

Context wrote:Brad Stevens made it to the finals?

Mark K wrote:About Blue's team. Several thing i notice off the bat.

1. His starters will be tired as ****. This is the Finals. If the rotations were set in a similar way for all playoffs, how could they possibly be fresh heading into the final round?

Hill plays 39 minutes, Wade plays 40, Anthony plays 40, Nene is playing 32 & Gasol is playing 40. To me, that means one thing, he has put all his energy into his starting unit.

His depth is coming from Williams (20), Birdman (12) and Richard Jefferson (12).

-They weren't all playing that many minutes all of the playoffs and they have ALL (minus Hill and Wade playing 36) played that many minutes just last year in the playoffs. They should be good to go.

2. From the depth chart posted, he essentially only has 3 guards playing the whole Finals. Lamb is in their for 5 mins with relief minutes, but that is minimal by and large. So, he is putting a tonne of pressure on Hill, Williams & Wade to handle the 2 guard spots for the entire series. As it stands right now, Melo has no back up in that rotation. 3 guard line ups would have to occur, which i assume is the case with Williams minutes being that high despite Wade & Hill playing most of the available minutes at the 1 & 2.

Pressure they've had in the past and proven to be able to handle. Lamb/Hood would be spotting Melo for a breather.

3. Given this short rotation, i ask, where is the defense coming from? Nene & Gasol are clearly a great pairing defensively up front, but what about everywhere else?

Mo Williams is not a good defender. Hill is decent. Wade & Anthony do not give consistent efforts defensively, nor have they shown that they can stay healthy this season. I don't know how Blue has come to the conclusion that Wade is still elite defensively. That's not true.

Hill is a great defender. Known by and large as one. Wade is excellent. Melo is decent. Mo is the only ehh defender. Statistically, eye test, etc still excellent for Wade. We have a defensive coach with the #1 defense. Team is good to go.

4. Jason Kidd is a good coach but i am questioning his fit with this team. They don't have the athleticism to play that free lancing, in your face, switching defense that he runs with the Bucks. How can Anthony & Wade guard that way whilst being ask to carry the offense and playing those huge minutes?

Totally different defense with the Nets last year. He knows how to work with teams and put them in great positions. Melo just has to camp out at the three point line with Carroll. Wade has stamina for days. No one is carrying the offense btw. We have scorers everywhere.

5. That 2nd unit has no defense at all. Williams, Lamb, Hood, Allen & Bargnani is soft. Even then, as noted by the depth chart, 3 of those guys won't even be playing so his bench unit will have minimal impact on this series at all.

Jefferson, Allen, Birdman, Lamb are excellent defenders. Williams is only ehh one. Bargs will only come in if offense is needed.

6. Who is running their offense? Hill is not a real PG. He is a combo guard who is better suited as a 6th man imo. Wade or Anthony? To me, their best passer is clearly Gasol, but will he be able to be a hub in the offense if Wade and Anthony are dominating the ball from the perimeter?

Everyone can pass the ball! That's the greatness of it. This will be a player moving, ball movement offense.

To me, the only way Blue can win this series if he keeps things down to 92-95 possessions a game and makes things a complete grind.

Disagree but this is definitely a team that will grind you out

I've made it clear that my team will be heavily focused around a spread pick and roll offense, with Curry & Dirk being the catalysts for that.

We have the right defenders, coach and system to stop that.

We will be playing hard, fast and will look to keep the game up tempo, whilst aiming for 110-115 possessions a night. It's basically 2 polar opposite squads built in a completely different way.

Melo, Wade, Nene, Hill are made for uptempo but can play half court also.

Again, focusing on his rotations, i have to ask how Anthony & Wade are going to be able to play that many minutes given their injury history, lack of back ups whilst also chasing around Redick & Carroll off ball on the perimeters. If they slip up for one second, i've got shooters at each corner just waiting.

They have every year in the playoffs. Nothing to imagine.

I just don't see how they have the front court depth to handle my team.

Bogut, Dirk, Hill, Humphries & Antic vs Nene, Gasol, Jefferson & Birdman.

That, to me, seems like a win on the boards.

What? lol. Add up the rebounding per 36 of the main rotation pieces (Gasol, Nene, Allen and Birdman) and you'll get a similar number. How many minutes is Humphries, Hill and Antic playing?

Nene, Gasol & Wade are not going to hurt me from the outside. Jefferson & Birdman are not going to hurt me from the outside. That leaves Anthony, Hill & Williams to score from deep. It's not a lot of options. What is stopping me from packing the paint defensively and letting George Hill or Mo Williams trying to beat me?

How do Wade & Anthony consistently get to the hoop if all those bodies are in or around the paint?

Jefferson is a 40% three point shooter...All my bigs minus Birdman can shoot between 16 to 3 point range.

Personally, i just think my team fits better together. Melo & Wade are huge names in the game, but their best basketball is way behind them. We saw what Wade dished up in the 2014 Finals. He can't be the lead dog on a Finals team anymore. Can Anthony?

Have you seen Wade this year? Melo? They still are dominant players. Wade has played with Melo and Melo is a monster feeding off a guard who can get to the rim. Shown in Olympics and with AI/Chauncey.

I don't think i have the names Blue does, and that will likely get him the win, but if this were an actual team, i believe the cohesion and selflessness of my team, it would actually create an incredible unit.

I think i've built a team that fits the skills of Curry & Dirk perfectly and there will be no ball stoppers or guys pouting about getting shots as Redick, Carroll & Bogut are the perfect role players to compliment my stars, not to mention that the bench unit will be able to just plug and play and do their jobs where necessary.

I like your team bro, but you cannot stop Melo, Wade, Gasol, Hill consistently. We have the defense, coaching, home court, etc build to win the playoffs.

Mark K wrote:

Context wrote:Brad Stevens made it to the finals?

I suggest you watch some Celtics games. The same Brad Stevens you question has that team of whatevers called Boston currently in the 8th seed in the East.

They Celtics have the 4th best record over the last 35 games out East. Think about that.

He is the best young coach in the game and already top 10 in the league imo.

Mark K wrote:It's hard to respond to that quoted the way it is, but i will do my best.

1. I really think you're overlooking this minutes thing. You're running an 8 man rotation with 5 of those guys playing huge minutes, with 7 of your 8 rotational guys being 30 or over. To me, it's a recipe for disaster. They would be winded by now.

2. Pressure and proven ability means little to me if you're essentially only running 3 guys through 2 positions for an entire Finals series. That's a huge burden to handle. Hood & Lamb will give your guys relief minutes, but they can't do anything outside of spot up. Your depth is a weakness and i think it hurts you given the age profile of your roster and the amount of minutes you have noted that they will play.

3. I don't believe Hill is a great defender. He is a good one, but great is going too far. Wade was an excellent defender, he isn't anymore. At least not consistently. Again, looking back at the 2014 Finals against the Spurs, he was ordinary on both sides of the ball. He has a negative DRPM, which is worse than JJ Redick's. Also interesting to note that Bogut leads all players in that stat, just an FYI.

4. It was a different defense with the Nets last season, but he has proven himself to be more impactful with what he is doing now with the Bucks than the Nets. BKN were ranked 20th in Def Rtg last season. This season with the Bucks, playing a different brand of basketball, he has them in the top 5. I don't think you can say with any assurities that Kidd and his defensive prowess with his current Bucks would carry over to your team given it's more likely that you play half court and more like the Nets, who were not good last season.

5. Richard Jefferson is not an excellent defender, nor is Jeremy Lamb. Cmon now. Birdman can have his moments and will block some shots whilst Allen is a good defender, which is irrelevant given you don't have him playing. As a 4, Jefferson is not an excellent defender.

6. Has Anthony ever played in an offense that had constant ball movement and player movement? Does Kidd even know how to implement that type of system? Have we seen that from him? Kidd likes playing smaller at the 4 to have that extra ball handler and passer, but you have Nene there. I don't think Wade & Anthony are as good a fit as Wade & James were simply due to Anthony having the propensity to stop the ball. As mentioned, Gasol makes perfect sense offensively to what you want to do, but i don't think he gets that many touches given Wade & Anthony are on the perimeter.

7. Saying you have the right system to stop that is one thing, but explain to me how that happens. I would like to see how you intend to stop a run and gun, spread pick and roll offense.

8. 'They have every year in the playoffs' isn't exactly a response that sheds much light. Both Wade & Melo are battling through injuries this season, and likely will for the remainder of their career. Their back ups are not really credible at this point so they will have to carry a heavy load. You're asking them to do that whilst chasing my shooters around the perimeter and fighting through screens. That's a tall order. They've done it in the past, but the past is past. These guys are get on now.

9. Dirk will play 36. Bogut will be playing 30. That leaves 30 minutes for me to split between 2 of Hill, Humphries and Antic. I will have a legit 4 man rotation up front, whereas you only really have 3.5, as Richard Jefferson is not a 4 man even though he plays it at the moment.

10. Jefferson shoots 42.3% from deep with the Mavs this season in 16 minutes with 2 attempts per game. You have him playing less minutes so naturally his attempts will go down. Safe to say that Jefferson and his 1.5 attempts per game isn't going to hurt me. As for the rest of your bigs, are Nene, Gasol & Allen good shooters between 16-23 feet?

Nene is 40% from that range. Allen is 38.1% from that range whilst Gasol is 39.6% from that range. Those are not good numbers. I am more than happy to give up the mid range 2 to your bigs. I'll take those odds.

11. Dwyane Wade & Carmelo Anthony have not been dominant in the 2014-15 NBA season. They're both very good players, but neither is an All NBA guy right now. If you had this roster 2 seasons ago, you'd have a point, but times have changed.

12. Agree to disagree

mattyj912 wrote:Before Doc rivers won a championship with boston he had never made it out of the first round.

PJax went to the conference finals in his 1st year and won the championship in his 2nd.

Popovich won a championship in his 3rd year, 2nd trip to the playoffs.

Spoelstra went to the playoffs every year. Lost the finals in his third year. Won in his fourth.

Stan Van went to the conference finals in his second year.

Pat Riley won the championship in his first year.

It happens. Put a good coach on a team with good players and they can go through the playoffs.

Blue Ninja wrote:

mattyj912 wrote:Before Doc rivers won a championship with boston he had never made it out of the first round.

PJax went to the conference finals in his 1st year and won the championship in his 2nd.

Popovich won a championship in his 3rd year, 2nd trip to the playoffs.

Spoelstra went to the playoffs every year. Lost the finals in his third year. Won in his fourth.

Stan Van went to the conference finals in his second year.

Pat Riley won the championship in his first year.

It happens. Put a good coach on a team with good players and they can go through the playoffs.

Doesn't happen nowadays. Especially with coaches that have NEVER coached in the playoffs before. Last one to win was Riley in 81. That's a long time.