Taj Gibson

[LOCKOUT]

It may be a little to early for this but I'm always looking into the future to build a power house. With that being said, Taj is set to make $8.5M next year and $8.9M the year after that. I always said that was dumb money for a player like Taj but once again GarPax fell in love and overpaid. Niko has to improve his defense but he's done enough to start next year. No way an $8.5M player come off the bench AGAIN. Now can someone tell me what's Taj value? What should we be looking to get for him?

[TimRobbins]

No way is Taj overpaid. He's underpaid and locked into a great contract in a rising cap environment. Guys making $8.5M (non-rookies) are usually bench players in this league and Taj could start for a few teams.

In any case, I'm pretty sure Taj is gone next season. I think the Raptors would be perfect for him and I hope we can get a 1st from them.

[jacoby1us]

Rose,Taj, Hinrich, Dunleavy and Noah need to go. Time to build for the future, we need cap space for Anthony Davis.

[nrockwaychicago]

probably the first time i've ever seen someone say that gibson is overpaid.

[Rerisen]

He isn't overpaid in a vacuum.

But he'll be overpaid if next year him and Mirotic flip roles, as Niko is obviously ready for a big time role. And if Taj becomes the guy, like Niko most of this year, just getting 15 minutes or 20 minutes unless there is any injury, then he will be highly overpaid. You simply can't impact the game enough at those minutes for 8.5 million.

[TimRobbins]

He isn't overpaid in a vacuum.

But he'll be overpaid if next year him and Mirotic flip roles, as Niko is obviously ready for a big time role. And if Taj becomes the guy, like Niko most of this year, just getting 15 minutes or 20 minutes unless there is any injury, then he will be highly overpaid. You simply can't impact the game enough at those minutes for 8.5 million.

You just made the case for him to be traded, which will probably happen during the offseason. Taj doesn't deserve to be a 4th big. He should get the opportunity to start towards the end of his career.

The Raptors would be a perfect destination for him and they have the cap space.

[ADDinChicago]

probably the first time i've ever seen someone say that gibson is overpaid.

I said so in the "what moves should the Bulls make" thread. In terms of production at his position when you look around the league and his role, he is "overpaid". Fits fine under the Bulls roster/cap, not so much other teams. Which is part of the reason why this summer his value is going to be less if he's shopped (which he most likely will be now being the 4th best big on the team but being paid like a starter/top bench player).

[AirP.]

No way is Taj overpaid. He's underpaid and locked into a great contract in a rising cap environment. Guys making $8.5M (non-rookies) are usually bench players in this league and Taj could start for a few teams.

In any case, I'm pretty sure Taj is gone next season. I think the Raptors would be perfect for him and I hope we can get a 1st from them.

Taj's value is worth his contract and more, the only reason he's seen as overpaid is because of his role and the depth that Chicago has. He's a good PF who deserves to start in the NBA and Chicago. Chicago could be nearly as good(because of Chicago's depth) in the bigs with a much cheaper 4th option(Mirotic moving up from 4th big).

[DuckIII]

Lets stop using the term "overpaid" when in fact we are talking about "underutilization."

Taj Gibson is on a value contract, which is one of the reasons why he will have meaningful trade value. And if for some reason, he doesn't have that trade value, then you just keep him.

That said, I expect the Bulls to vigorously shop Taj this offseason for obvious reasons having nothing to do with Taj himself or his contract, and then look to either move Noah or instead let him walk after next season.

[BullsFTW]

Rose,Taj, Hinrich, Dunleavy and Noah need to go. Time to build for the future, we need cap space for Anthony Davis.

I don't see Rose or Noah getting moved next season.

[Mech Engineer]

Overanalyze a guy's production when hurt is the theme of this thread. The cap might be 100 million after next year. Spending 33 to 35% on your big men is not overpayment when you can have quality for 96 minutes. Off-course, there will be better big guys in the league in many games but the Bulls don't plan their future based on the old salary cap. They would plan based on the future cap and multiple other things like injuries, team window, coach, chemistry, playoffs etc...

Mirotic is a rare rookie who does well but the norm is more of McDermott, Snell types who will struggle for a few years before they find their footing.

[WIN]

Taj when healthy is a beast....definitely not overpaid.

Can we afford not to have him? With the rise of Mirotic, probably, but Taj would certainly be worth more than his contract to most teams. We kind of have too much of a good thing by having Mirotic and Taj. If we can get a first for him, great, if not I'm all for keeping him seeing how we always have injury problems year after year.

[TimRobbins]

Taj when healthy is a beast....definitely not overpaid.

Can we afford not to have him? With the rise of Mirotic, probably, but Taj would certainly be worth more than his contract to most teams. We kind of have too much of a good thing by having Mirotic and Taj. If we can get a first for him, great, if not I'm all for keeping him seeing how we always have injury problems year after year.

You can't keep him since there is no way JR will pay the tax for Gibson.

[Rerisen]

Overanalyze a guy's production when hurt is the theme of this thread. The cap might be 100 million after next year. Spending 33 to 35% on your big men is not overpayment when you can have quality for 96 minutes. Off-course, there will be better big guys in the league in many games but the Bulls don't plan their future based on the old salary cap. They would plan based on the future cap and multiple other things like injuries, team window, coach, chemistry, playoffs etc...

Mirotic is a rare rookie who does well but the norm is more of McDermott, Snell types who will struggle for a few years before they find their footing.

There is a connection between your 2nd paragraph and your 1st that is going by the boards.

You just admitted that McDermott and Snell are likely to struggle 'for a few years', but if we keep all bigs, we won't have much in the way of funds to address that situation. Maybe an MMLE or MLE at best.

What you are basically saying is you care about injury insurance, or the luxury of a 4th big just for defending PnR, more than making sure we have a credible 2nd wing starter.

Actually, we've been destroyed by PnR multiple times this year, and not once do I remember Thibs putting in Gibson to save the day. Because so long as Noah is limited and Gasol so slow, teams will always have a matchup to run it at us.

It's hard to understand valuing a backup bench position more than a starter. It's not like Taj is even going to get 6th man minutes either, like Manu or Jamal Crawford. Which case you could argue that role over a starter, especially if they close. But he won't close much. And based on Mirotic's growth trajectory, Taj will be lucky to be playing 22 minutes next year.

It's not about how much is being spent at a position or what the cap will be in 2 or 3 years. The team's window is short. What matters is if the salary slot could be making more impact elsewhere where there is enormously more overhead for improvement than a place where we already have 3 above average impact players, capable of handling virtually all the minutes there nightly.

[musiqsoulchild]

If we make the ECF, we will keep the team as is.

The only overpaid pieces on this team are:

Rose
Noah
Kirk ( irrelavant)

Rose and Noah are not getting traded, if we go to the ECF.

We'll be fine with an 80 Million dollar payroll that has no repeater tax implications due to the new CBA and the increase in cap space looming in 2017.

[Mech Engineer]

Overanalyze a guy's production when hurt is the theme of this thread. The cap might be 100 million after next year. Spending 33 to 35% on your big men is not overpayment when you can have quality for 96 minutes. Off-course, there will be better big guys in the league in many games but the Bulls don't plan their future based on the old salary cap. They would plan based on the future cap and multiple other things like injuries, team window, coach, chemistry, playoffs etc...

Mirotic is a rare rookie who does well but the norm is more of McDermott, Snell types who will struggle for a few years before they find their footing.

There is a connection between your 2nd paragraph and your 1st that is going by the boards.

You just admitted that McDermott and Snell are likely to struggle 'for a few years', but if we keep all bigs, we won't have much in the way of funds to address that situation. Maybe an MMLE or MLE at best.

What you are basically saying is you care about injury insurance, or the luxury of a 4th big just for defending PnR, more than making sure we have a credible 2nd wing starter.

Actually, we've been destroyed by PnR multiple times this year, and not once do I remember Thibs putting in Gibson to save the day. Because so long as Noah is limited and Gasol so slow, teams will always have a matchup to run it at us.

It's hard to understand valuing a backup bench position more than a starter. It's not like Taj is even going to get 6th man minutes either, like Manu or Jamal Crawford. Which case you could argue that role over a starter, especially if they close. But he won't close much. And based on Mirotic's growth trajectory, Taj will be lucky to be playing 22 minutes next year.

It's not about how much is being spent at a position or what the cap will be in 2 or 3 years. The team's window is short. What matters is if the salary slot could be making more impact elsewhere where there is enormously more overhead for improvement than a place where we already have 3 above average impact players, capable of handling virtually all the minutes there nightly.

This is not a one-on-one analysis. It is about many give and takes rather than a single give and take you/many do.

Taj might play 20-25 minutes next year which is fine. The team should play whoever gets you wins and not based on some future superstardom expectations or the style of play. Mirotic is getting 4th quarter minutes because that's what gets wins sometimes.

Also, Snell/McDermott are no longer going to be rookies next year. Even if McDermott is kind of a rookie, he will be used to multiple things in the NBA. There is no chance that next year he is not getting some minutes even if you get an all-star SF(even if it looks like entitlement minutes). Snell is good enough/experienced enough and cheap enough to get 20-25 minutes next year.

Between Snell, Jimmy and McDermott and some Mirotic/a new combo guard you basically fill your SG/SF minutes.

There is no way the Bulls find a guy of Taj's talent at the wing position who can take away all these guys's minutes.

I also think(Gar even said that in an interview) the Bulls value "Bigs" more which is right anyways. The 96 minutes of PF/Center is more valuable than the 96 minutes of SF/SG, IMO especially considering the scoring type of PG the Bulls have.

I agree they need insurance for bad play from Snell or McDermott but you can find a cheap wing like Rasual Butler type who can be that insurance rather than spend on an average/overpaid wing who cannot shoot 3s well. If the young but experienced guys(Snell, McDermott) fail...they will have the ability to change things with Noah/Taj/Gasol in 2016 anyways.

It is a lot more detailed but fluid analysis which cannot be done now. And, not to mention the injury concerns of Noah/Gasol. Gasol literally looks like a taller Boozer with more hair. And, I don't trust Mirotic on his defense next year even if he is showing promise. It is what they consider important for the team.

[bullslas]

I'm not a Taj fan, but in today's NBA at 8 million, I guess he isn't overpaid. I agree, he needs to be traded to make room for Niko. Taj has been a good soldier, and I will always appreciate his effort. I'm just tired of the no passing, bad rebounding and over rated defense. I honestly don't think Taj is a starter. He kills the ball movement, and is a me first player. Playing with Niko, Taj has changed it up a bit. Niko and Taj have some good chemistry. I wish the Taj at C and Niko at PF, would be displayed more often.

The Bulls need another Wing, and all we have to trade is Taj, unless we give up Noah.

[Rerisen]

I agree they need insurance for bad play from Snell or McDermott but you can find a cheap wing like Rasual Butler type who can be that insurance rather than spend on an average/overpaid wing who cannot shoot 3s well. If the young but experienced guys(Snell, McDermott) fail...they will have the ability to change things with Noah/Taj/Gasol in 2016 anyways.

I think you just have way more faith in those 2 guys than I do. But I'm basing my take on evidence, or lack of, rather than faith they will just get so much better. And if both fail again, Rasual Butler isn't going to save us. Neither Doug or Snell were even as good as Dunleavy this year and Dunleavy himself is not an ideal starter on a title team, which is why he has been put in a Bogans role and never even finishes games.

The Bulls don't have mega talents like Shaq and Kobe to carry a Fisher level 5th starter, nor Durant and Westbrook to carry a Thabo level starter. We are more in the mold of a San Antonio or Atlanta style team, unless Rose returns to MVP form, and when you realize that, then you can't be having subpar players on the floor for long lengths of the game. Mine is far from a 1 to 1 analysis, it is in fact a team wide talent analysis and we have no room to spare for wasting talent and money on guys who are not going to play as much as their contract or talent should demand in order to max them out.

Taj should be playing 27-30 minutes a game and so should Mirotic. But neither will when the team is healthy or in a playoff situation. The idea of choosing Niko some nights, Taj some nights is good in theory, but in reality is extremely hard to maximize that way as Thibs has no way to know which player is going to have a hot night or even quarter. Its just as likely Thibs accidently plays Mirotic 28 minutes in a game Gibson might have exploded in, but you just lose that performance due to lack of minutes. It amounts to diminishing returns in how much that is boosting your overall center or power forward performance over 48 minutes. While having a crappy starter like Snell out there 30 minutes a game can be upgraded significantly even by an average 15 PER type starter.

I'm not just talking theory here either, all you have to do is look at our bigs performance all year long and see that the supposed matchup advantages and overwhelming wave of backup talent has not been brought to bear or to effectiveness in anything close to the way it was hyped and hoped. The extra talent is mostly just dribbling off the table as someone sits around on the bench.

The only time it has strongly helped us is when there have been injuries or we've wanted to give a big basically free nights off if they are kind of banged up or tired. But despite this luxury, we've still had as many injuries as ever and the team won't be going to the playoffs with any cohesion or chemistry built.

[Mech Engineer]

I agree they need insurance for bad play from Snell or McDermott but you can find a cheap wing like Rasual Butler type who can be that insurance rather than spend on an average/overpaid wing who cannot shoot 3s well. If the young but experienced guys(Snell, McDermott) fail...they will have the ability to change things with Noah/Taj/Gasol in 2016 anyways.

I think you just have way more faith in those 2 guys than I do. But I'm basing my take on evidence, or lack of, rather than faith they will just get so much better. And if both fail again, Rasual Butler isn't going to save us. Neither Doug or Snell were even as good as Dunleavy this year and Dunleavy himself is not an ideal starter on a title team, which is why he has been put in a Bogans role and never even finishes games.

The Bulls don't have mega talents like Shaq and Kobe to carry a Fisher level starter, nor Durant and Westbrook to carry a Thabo level starter. We are more in the mold of a San Antonio or Atlanta style team, unless Rose returns to MVP form, and when you realize that, then you can't be having subpar players on the floor for long lengths of the game. Mine is far from a 1 to 1 analysis, it is in fact a team wide talent analysis and we have no room to spare for wasting talent and money on guys who are not going to play as much as their contract or talent should demand in order to max them out.

These mega-talent is all after the fact analysis. We have no idea if Derrick is going to be that mega-talent next year or not. We will only know after they win. You are still doing 1 to 1 analysis of looking at from only one perspective of wing player who in your opinion will be a better talent than Snell/McDermott/Dunleavy(or somebody)/Mirotic of 2016. Jimmy of 2014 is different from 2015 and so is Snell.

The experience Snell gets this playoffs(playing with the right kind of cast and role) is more important in his development than his playoff role last year when he was playing with DJ.

Again, we have no idea of who is the fourth big next year. It can be Gasol or Taj or Noah. It depends on health/aging/skills etc.... I think the anti-Taj talk is more of a fan's way of realigning the Bulls rather than how the management looks at it.

The bottom-line again is if they keep the window of contention open next year or not(which I think they will). The needs keep changing for fans from game to game and that's why I don't pay much heed to those needs.

[Rerisen]

These mega-talent is all after the fact analysis. We have no idea if Derrick is going to be that mega-talent next year or not. We will only know after they win. You are still doing 1 to 1 analysis of looking at from only one perspective of wing player who in your opinion will be a better talent than Snell/McDermott/Dunleavy(or somebody)/Mirotic of 2016. Jimmy of 2014 is different from 2015 and so is Snell.

The experience Snell gets this playoffs(playing with the right kind of cast and role) is more important in his development than his playoff role last year when he was playing with DJ.

Again, we have no idea of who is the fourth big next year. It can be Gasol or Taj or Noah. It depends on health/aging/skills etc.... I think the anti-Taj talk is more of a fan's way of realigning the Bulls rather than how the management looks at it.

The bottom-line again is if they keep the window of contention open next year or not(which I think they will). The needs keep changing for fans from game to game and that's why I don't pay much heed to those needs.

The general idea here is to propose what you think is a smart direction for the team, and that's what I'm trying to engage from you.

Continually condescending that everyone else is just giving fans opinions and you secretly know what management really wants isn't pushing the thread anywhere.

There were some reports that Taj was already being shopped this year, the idea that he couldn't be in the summer seems quite naive.

But I'm not really interested in guessing what management thinks because no one knows, and we won't know till we see. I'm more interested in discussing the merits of the options.

And I've yet to see a good argument for why we should have such faith in McDermott or Snell to be title team worthy starters. You called them both 'experienced' earlier. What experience does Doug have, he's hardly played in any meaningful games all year. Snell has seen virtually no playoff experience and is a 10 PER player. That's not starting material.

Yet this is our wing rotation next year as it stands: Butler (excellent), then a 10 PER 2nd year guy that looks scared on the floor half the time, and a rookie who was one of the worst players in the league while on the floor. Then Kirk Hinrich, who no one would bat an eyelash at if he declared his retirement at the end of the year.