RealGM

So with all the Rose trade rumors starting up and people arguing about his value, I decided to look into his stats on the season and see if I could find a pattern in the stats.....BUT I couldn't. I did find some interesting random stats that I thought to share and maybe we can find out why this is.

I looked at Rose's stats from 1/1/2016 (he started coming around at the beginning of the year, this was like a week after mask coming off) to 3/29/2016 (elbow injury).

Passing:
When I was watching the games this past year, I noticed (like I am sure many others did) that Rose's main aim seemed to be to score. He wasn't doing it efficiently but I liked the aggression he showed compared to the year before. When he did pass however, he did seem to increase his teammates level of play; all of the FG% of the people he passed to was higher with one notable exception: Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy was the 2nd highest % that Rose passed to, and received passes from (1st being Pau for both players).


On passes received from Rose however, Jimmy shot a putrid 10% from deep! His 2p% also saw a slight dip from Rose's passing.

However, it was different when Jimmy passed Rose the ball. When Rose received the ball from Jimmy, he shot it at 45.5% from deep (highest from anyone) and 50% from 2p% (which is about near the same as other rotation players)

For some reason, Jimmy's game really declines (especially his outside shot) when the ball is passed to him from Rose...


For perspective, in the portion of season I looked at, Rose shot 35% from deep which I think if he gets his 3point shot to next year, that is respectable.

Deeper into the passing stats:
Pau Gasol was the recipient of the most passes on the bulls. The top 5 people to pass to him highest to least: Rose, Jimmy, Etwaun, Brooks, Dunleavy. His shooting respectively: 49.1, 45.6, 48.4, 46.9,46.2. He shot overall 47.8%

So Pau shot his best percentages off of Rose's passes.

For Jimmy, The top 5 were: Rose, Pau, Niko, Taj, Brooks
His shooting (2pt/3pt): 46/11,59/43,44/43,30/17,41/57
overall: 48/30
so JImmy shot really well off of passes from Pau, decently off of Nikoe, Okay off of Brooks and then terrible from Rose & Taj


Next is Taj, Top 5: Rose, Jimmy, Moore, Gasol, Dunleavy
shooting: 52, 55, 46,65, 53
overall: 53.7

Here is Niko: Jimmy, Rose, Brooks, Gasol, Moore
shooting: 39/46,18/58, 42/56, 64/36, 40/29
Overall: 40.4/41.5
This is interesting. It seems like since both Jimmy & Rose clog the paint, Niko sucks at 2pt%, but shoots the 3 well. The opposite happened with Gasol


so outside of Niko's 2point shooting and Jimmy's overall shooting, Rose's passes helped his teammate not hurt them


Roses passers: Gasol, Taj, Jimmy, Niko, Bobby.
Shooting: 47/36, 52/44, 51/46, 62/33, 43/0
Overall: 48/35

Another thing to note is most of the passes between our players were between Rose/Pau/Jimmy which we all know but I think it emphasizes how stagnant our offense was still. Each of them had a frequency of 20%+ with each other and our role players had less than 10% usually.


Defense:
Okay, let me start this by saying yes Rose's defense was putrid last season. Opposing players shot 2.3% higher than they did on average against him. Here again, I found yet another interesting stat: On shots less than 6ft from the hoop, Rose's man shot a whopping 9% higher!. I am not sure how NBA tracks this defense (is it only shots Rose is contesting at/near the rim or does this include shots that is after a player blows by him?) but that's a substantial difference.

I would maybe take this stat with a grain of salt because I looked up Aaron Brooks numbers for comparison and it said Brooks is an overall positive defender and causes players to shoot 3% less than the average.


Shooting:

Lastly, 3pt shooting. Rose's % early in the shot clock (15s+) was around ~13%, late in the clock (<4s) was at 20%, However, in the middle was at or above 40% shooting! His catch and shoot rate was also 40%! For perspective, overall he shot 35% from range.

I think Rose can be a decent enough set shooter if he waits for the play to develop and takes his shot in rhythm. Take out the early clock pullups and late clock heaves and I think his percentage can be respectable.

It sounds a bit better when its 19 points on 46%/36%. TS is not the best stat to look at when Rose is getting no respect from the refs (also a bit due to his play style). he had literally half the FTAs compared to 2010-2012. His EFG% was 48.2% would is his best since his MVP season and in his MVP season he was at 48.5%. He was taking shots and making them at a rate that was the same as his MVP season, just without the free throws.

This is infinitely better than the 16 points on 43/29 that the overall season stats would lead you to believe.

You might not think that number isn't that impressive, but let's hope by some miracle that Rose is perfectly healthy last year and put up that statline. so 21.8pp36 on 46% FG, 36% 3pt. Let's see how many guards can match or exceed the criteria of 21 on 45/35 last season. Only 2: Curry and Thompson albeit they did it at higher efficiencies. Make it 20pp36 and take out the 35% from range crieteria and still only 3 more players get added to the list: Jimmy butler, Westbrook, and Bledsoe

I actually want to put the final blow on this point one more time. Let's say Rose stays at the EXACT same VOLUME & EFFICIENCY. However, he refines his game just a tiny tweak & and the refs respect him just a tiny bit more and he gets 1 more call in his favor.

This results in: A) 1 less 2PTA and B) 2 more FTA. What is his scoring/TS% now?

FG%: 46->49
2PT%:47.6->51
PPG:19->20.4
TS%:51.5->56.95

From just one call, Rose goes from meh to elite. Is that not an indicator of where he is at right now?

If you look at TOV%, it is about the same as his preinjury career rate. I already acknowledged that Rose had tunnel vision last season which can be seen by his AST% dipping about 10%. Hopefully now that he had a scoring rhythm going, he can incorporate making his teammates better this upcoming year. Go ahead and look at last years playoffs numbers. His AST% and TOV% is about in line with his preinjury career rate. I think Rose CAN return to that level.
----

Well that's all I have! nothing major . Obviously this all depends on if Rose can stay healthy....

Really appreciate the digging and the perspective. Goes to show that Jimmy, as a SHOOTING guard needs to shoot better. Especially when his point is setting him up.

The defense at the rim is a good stat too. I wonder who had more minutes with Pau, Rose or Brooks? That as wer I actually know, but who were Brooks's rim protectors? Noah? Gibson? That answer makes a big difference imo

I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that he majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

Well, like i said, Rose seemed to be aiming to score and get his offensive rhythm back but when he did pass, he improved almost everybody in the rotation.... besides Jimmy.

wesleybullsfan wrote:Really appreciate the digging and the perspective. Goes to show that Jimmy, as a SHOOTING guard needs to shoot better. Especially when his point is setting him up.

The defense at the rim is a good stat too. I wonder who had more minutes with Pau, Rose or Brooks? That as wer I actually know, but who were Brooks's rim protectors? Noah? Gibson? That answer makes a big difference imo

I do think him playing with Pau backing him up had to do a lot with it. Our rim protection was really poor last year. Also, Jimmy shot well off of passes from most of the other players besides Rose. it really is an anomaly

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

So instead of using facts you're just going with your gut. Got it.

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

I highly disagree with that. One thing that will NEVER change about Rose is that the dude is Houdini with the ball in his hands. Every time he went to the paint teams collapsed and he'd always find some guy on the opposite end of the court wide open. If anything I just think guys weren't prepared to catch the ball. How could you though? Dude makes some passes that some of the best hall of gamers couldn't do consistently.

wesleybullsfan wrote:Really appreciate the digging and the perspective. Goes to show that Jimmy, as a SHOOTING guard needs to shoot better. Especially when his point is setting him up.

The defense at the rim is a good stat too. I wonder who had more minutes with Pau, Rose or Brooks? That as wer I actually know, but who were Brooks's rim protectors? Noah? Gibson? That answer makes a big difference imo

Like a Harden, I feel Jimmy needs the ball in his hands, which is why I fear bringing in a Baldwin or a Dunn wont be as smooth as expected as neither play well off the ball.

Proven_Winner wrote:

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

I highly disagree with that. One thing that will NEVER change about Rose is that the dude is Houdini with the ball in his hands. Every time he went to the paint teams collapsed and he'd always find some guy on the opposite end of the court wide open. If anything I just think guys weren't prepared to catch the ball. How could you though? Dude makes some passes that some of the best hall of gamers couldn't do consistently.

Gotta disagree here. The part of Rose's game that I like least is his drive and kick game. Not that the play isn't a great one, and I do agree that defenses do sag off of perimeter guys, leaving them open. It's that his passing on those plays is inaccurate, leaving guys scooping shots off their ankles or needing to jump to catch them - negating the time they had to take the open shot. Generally, I think Rose has poor peripheral awareness, because his first move is to look for a driving lane for himself. My suspicion about Jimmy is that his guy was least likely to sag, leaving him guarded and shooting off a bad pass - Jimmy isn't blameless because he took too many contested shots or went ISO.

IMO, Derrick has 2 main strengths:

1) He has very good court vision and touch on vertical passes (ie forward, ahead of him down the court).
2) He has fantastic touch on lay-ups where he's not seeking contact.

TeK wrote:

wesleybullsfan wrote:Really appreciate the digging and the perspective. Goes to show that Jimmy, as a SHOOTING guard needs to shoot better. Especially when his point is setting him up.

The defense at the rim is a good stat too. I wonder who had more minutes with Pau, Rose or Brooks? That as wer I actually know, but who were Brooks's rim protectors? Noah? Gibson? That answer makes a big difference imo

Like a Harden, I feel Jimmy needs the ball in his hands, which is why I fear bringing in a Baldwin or a Dunn wont be as smooth as expected as neither play well off the ball.

If you're keeping Jimmy you need a PG in the mold of Fisher/Paxson then? The stats indicate that Derricks catch and shoot percentages were pretty good actually so maybe that's what he needs to do for them to coexist. Give Jimmy the keys as the #1 option. If he can make people have to game plan for his spot up 3 ball then he can attack the close outs and wreak havoc on rotating defenses.

wesleybullsfan wrote:

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

So instead of using facts you're just going with your gut. Got it.

I don't even know why I commented in a thread of delusional Rose fans. What I should have said is that I'm not wasting time digging up a bunch of stats that ALWAYS show Roses' level of play ranks amongst the worst in the league at his position. Enough FACTS i.e. STATS have been posted on this board for anyone that is willing to listen, yet we still have a huge contingent of bulls fans posting nonsense such as this...argue with yourself...

Jimmy was clearly sabotaging Rose.



Biggest problems I saw with Rose were the uncharacteristically sloppy turnovers (he was an incredibly efficient ball-handler during his MVP season), and the poor foul-drawing rate.

It would be interesting to see what other players shot when receiving a pass from Rose in the same comparison.

I'll say this, sometimes Rose doesn't make the cleanest passes when guys are spotting up to shoot. That can make a difference when a guy has to adjust his shot after a slightly off pass and then ends up not shooting it in rhythm.

MBPKOGZ wrote:

wesleybullsfan wrote:

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

So instead of using facts you're just going with your gut. Got it.

I don't even know why I commented in a thread of delusional Rose fans. What I should have said is that I'm not wasting time digging up a bunch of stats that ALWAYS show Roses' level of play ranks amongst the worst in the league at his position. Enough FACTS i.e. STATS have been posted on this board for anyone that is willing to listen, yet we still have a huge contingent of bulls fans posting nonsense such as this...argue with yourself...

Look dude, OP dug some truth out of a crap season. It's called statistical analysis. Some of us value that stuff.

And guess what? Players play worse when injured. Rubio was the worst PG in the NBA his first year back from ACL statistically. This stuff has an effect. In order to evaluate what a player is capable of you need to see what they can do when injury is not a factor.

So, let's look again, at the facts:

When healthy Rose was a 40% 3pt shooter on spot ups. That's valuable info. I never thought Rose was a good 3pt shooter personally. This changes my mind a bit. Makes me wonder if a restriction in his role would make the team play better. Perhaps he should be getting Jimmy the ball in his spots, spotting up for spacing, attacking close outs and focusing the rest of his energy on defense.

Maybe if I'm Paxson I tell him that's his job and Jimmy is the man now. I also tell him play the role well and you'll be paid well for it.

But first, you have to appreciate the stats and the work OP did to dig them up. I thought they were informative and useful for planning.

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

That's an incorrect assessment. It's not Rose's passing, it's his teammates. On 2/18/16 @ Cleveland Rose had a potential 14 ast night but the Bulls were only 2/14 Fg when receiving passes from Rose. Rose ended up with 2 assists. That's a concrete example of how poor the Bulls execute

PaKii94 wrote:So with all the Rose trade rumors starting up and people arguing about his value, I decided to look into his stats on the season and see if I could find a pattern in the stats.....BUT I couldn't. I did find some interesting random stats that I thought to share and maybe we can find out why this is.

I looked at Rose's stats from 1/1/2016 (he started coming around at the beginning of the year, this was like a week after mask coming off) to 3/29/2016 (elbow injury).

Passing:
When I was watching the games this past year, I noticed (like I am sure many others did) that Rose's main aim seemed to be to score. He wasn't doing it efficiently but I liked the aggression he showed compared to the year before. When he did pass however, he did seem to increase his teammates level of play; all of the FG% of the people he passed to was higher with one notable exception: Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy was the 2nd highest % that Rose passed to, and received passes from (1st being Pau for both players).


On passes received from Rose however, Jimmy shot a putrid 10% from deep! His 2p% also saw a slight dip from Rose's passing.

However, it was different when Jimmy passed Rose the ball. When Rose received the ball from Jimmy, he shot it at 45.5% from deep (highest from anyone) and 50% from 2p% (which is about near the same as other rotation players)

For some reason, Jimmy's game really declines (especially his outside shot) when the ball is passed to him from Rose...


For perspective, in the portion of season I looked at, Rose shot 35% from deep which I think if he gets his 3point shot to next year, that is respectable.


Defense:
Okay, let me start this by saying yes Rose's defense was putrid last season. Opposing players shot 2.3% higher than they did on average against him. Here again, I found yet another interesting stat: On shots less than 6ft from the hoop, Rose's man shot a whopping 9% higher!. I am not sure how NBA tracks this defense (is it only shots Rose is contesting at/near the rim or does this include shots that is after a player blows by him?) but that's a substantial difference.

I would maybe take this stat with a grain of salt because I looked up Aaron Brooks numbers for comparison and it said Brooks is an overall positive defender and causes players to shoot 3% less than the average.


Shooting:

Lastly, 3pt shooting. Rose's % early in the shot clock (15s+) was around ~13%, late in the clock (<4s) was at 20%, However, in the middle was at or above 40% shooting! His catch and shoot rate was also 40%! For perspective, overall he shot 35% from range.

I think Rose can be a decent enough set shooter if he waits for the play to develop and takes his shot in rhythm. Take out the early clock pullups and late clock heaves and I think his percentage can be respectable.


----

Well that's all I have! nothing major . Obviously this all depends on if Rose can stay healthy....

For some reason? How about nobody respects Rose's outside game (or game at all) and sag heavily off of him. This makes the gap for defenders to close out on off-ball shooters a lot smaller. This is why people pointing to Rose's PER or string of PPG in the 2nd half of the season are so off base. The numbers don't always give the whole story and I am not even talking about the defensive end.

wesleybullsfan wrote:Really appreciate the digging and the perspective. Goes to show that Jimmy, as a SHOOTING guard needs to shoot better. Especially when his point is setting him up.

Yes. Jimmy spent more time working on his shot creation than on coming off screens to shoot. Curry and Thompson are deadly because they can create AND set each other up

wesleybullsfan wrote:

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

So instead of using facts you're just going with your gut. Got it.

Well, in fairness, Rose's assist numbers were garbage. So its not like the eye test departs much, if at all, from the objective data.

Paki, that was an interesting stat on Jimmy's shooting percentage on Rose passes. What was his shooting percentage on passes from others?

He always put so much pressure on the collapsing defense before he got hurt, he never learned how to make great passes, guys were always wide open and had more time to get set before they shot. Pass didnt need to be money. Now not so much.

Proven_Winner wrote:

MBPKOGZ wrote:I don't feel like digging up a bunch of stats so feel free to agree or disagree with my point of view which is derived solely from the eye test but I tend to see that the majority of players on the team that Rose dishes passes to shoot poorly and thus Rose fails to register any assists. At first I thought this was merely Rose being unlucky but when I saw how easy it was for both Butler and Gasol to create better (scoring) shots for the team despite handling the ball much less, I came to the rational conclusion that Rose isn't very good at anything atm other than scoring...inefficiently...

I highly disagree with that. One thing that will NEVER change about Rose is that the dude is Houdini with the ball in his hands. Every time he went to the paint teams collapsed and he'd always find some guy on the opposite end of the court wide open. If anything I just think guys weren't prepared to catch the ball. How could you though? Dude makes some passes that some of the best hall of gamers couldn't do consistently.

Among "great" point guards, Rose is one of the worst and least creative passers I've ever seen in 25 years of watching NBA basketball as an adult.

Rose is kind of a Houdini when it comes to his handle though, I'll give you that. Combined with his blistering speed and strength, its what made him so great.