waffle wrote:ArizonaBullsFan wrote:Rerisen wrote:
This is a crazy position at this time. Massively premature at minimum.
All that has happened to this point is Lauri has matched his pick position with solid play, and Dunn has -with great relief- at least stopped playing at a bust level where he was last year. But still has a long ways to go to be a good player. While LaVine hasn't even stepped on the floor. If that is your bar for getting 'the farm' its a embarrassingly low bar.
The Bulls need to get an All-Star at minimum out of the deal IMO, likely multiple if they are low level ones, for it even to be a good value, let alone, a deal that we could be said to have won. We are nowhere close to be able to assume that.
As if Dunn, Lavine, and Lauri, merely end up various degrees of starting players, but not stars, well getting 3 starters in return for a borderline superstar like Jimmy is not good value for rebuilding from ground zero, or certainly not unless you already have a superstar or get one somewhere else. As it would set you up for treadmill hell. To build an eventual serious contender we are likely going to need 3 elite talents, with one being a legit superstar. You have to get 1 or 2 of those future elite talents when you blow it up by giving up your current franchise player in his prime.
There is no well grounded prediction at this point in time that any of these three are going to be multiple time All-Stars. It's possible, but head scratching to suggest its obvious, or even more likely than not right now.
Great post, and I agree with all of it... except the one bolded sentence. And it's a minor complaint.
IMO, Lauri has pretty much exceeded his draft position. The draft was supposed to be one of those "great" ones, with Fultz and Ball allegedly generational superstar talents.
Lauri's play has far exceeded theirs of course, and I think that at this moment, Lauri would probably be about #5 in ROY voting.
Simmons
Mitchell
Kuzma
Tatum
Lauri
https://hoopshabit.com/2017/12/09/2017-18-nba-rookie-year-ladder-week-8-power-rankings/7/That puts Lauri at #4 in his draft, which seems fair so far.
Certainly some of that has to do with Ball and Fultz pretty much sucking and not playing so far.
Not that it means very much in the actual "where would you rank the draft", but Lauri has certainly exceeded the expectations of most on this board. Of course, a lot that has to do with all the "We should have taken DSJ" that was expressed after the draft, and has been just plain bad. And "bad" is being kind.
Like you, I'm certainly not sure that Lauri or Dunn or Lavine are an elite, generational talent, right now I'd bet against generational easily. They certainly have All-Star level potential, and I might just take 4 or 5 consistent All-Stars over 1 generational, 1 All-Star, and 3 pretty good players.
Folks should just sit back and enjoy the ride... Dunn has completely blown me away with his improvement over the last 3-4 weeks, and Lauri has been outstanding before hitting the rookie wall, and then this weekend after seemingly overcoming the wall. But it's waaaaaaay too early to say anything more than that.
But you have to play the POTENTIAL game in the nba, more than any other team sport.
we traded a known quantity for 3, maybe 4 (count the next draft pick which will be higher due to our suckage) for Jimmy. That gives us a CHANCE if our FO gets it right (hold the abuse please) and our existing players learn to play together and meet, or at least get close, to their ceilings. That plus one good FA signing and we are suddenly a very good team.
But again POTENTIALLY. You try to put a team together that has the POTENTIAL.
If I had to put 2 standard deviations on how many wins I thought the bulls might have 3 years from now I might have it at 55-60 wins. The mean? Maybe 40? But the high variability due to the high level of uncertainty/potential = a big range.
We complain about being in mediocrity hell. What we have here is a very real response to mediocrity hell
Oh yeah, there's no doubt that in the NBA, if you want to rebuild, it's all about POTENTIAL because the kids you're drafting with the most talent are 19-year-olds.
And while I was 100% against the rebuild, I couldn't possibly be happier with how it's gone so far. I accepted the rebuild about 5 minutes after the trade, because it was either "deal with it" or "become one of those bitter guys that hate the front office and would be fine if we fail miserably if it means GarPaxBerg lose their jobs".
Dunn has literally shocked me with the improvement he's shown over the last 3-4 weeks, I can't believe how much better he looks now than he did in SL and the first 8 games back from injury. Obviously it's easily explainable, he missed SL last year, had a coach that has never cared to develop rookies, missed most of SL this year, and then got injured in preseason and missed games.
But even accounting for all those reasons he sucked his first 8 games as a Bull, I am still shocked with how (dare I say) great he has looked (in comparison). I knew nothing about him (with my own eyes) from college or Thibs, but I can't believe what an amazing defender he already is. And I'm no member of the "he's not a rookie and he's over 21, he can't get much better", but the progress he's shows is just stunning.
To the point where I could easily see him being an All-Star in a few years. He has too shoot way too much now, and he doesn't have much to pass the ball to, but a little more progress and he's going to be a stud in this league - especially when you also factor in his amazing defense.
I don't care what anyone says, in my eyes he's already close to All-Defense level on that end of the floor. AND it looks like he's going to be one of the best defensive rebounding PGs in the league, which is huge. It's much easier to fast break when your PG starts the possession with the ball in his hands.
1 more thing, my "not wanting to rebuild" was almost solely based on 2 games last season, the first 2 games of the BOS series. We kicked their asses, on the road, because we had Rondo who is built for the playoffs. Until he was announced as injured, after those 2 games, even the "experts" had us winning that series easily, many said we'd wind up sweeping them because they no answer for us (and a hobbled Thomas, of course).
We win that series and get to play Cleveland - who we downright dominated and embarassed the last few regular seasons - who knows what happens.
We almost certainly don't beat them in a 7-game series, but who knows? We were obviously all up in their heads.
And I don't have a problem with a 45 win team with veterans who step it up 2 notches in the playoffs.
And who knows, even keeping Wade and Rondo (who we could have cut and re-signed cheaper IMHO) we had close to max cap space and the #16 pick - and maybe Kyrie demands a trade to play with his boy Jimmy?
But it all worked out for the best, our future looks much, much, much brighter now than it did even after those 2 playoff wins. I can't see a scenario where I could be happier standing pat than I currently am with the rebuild.
