Time to say NO to NikO? - update Niko signed 2/27

[dice]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

obviously WE would prefer that he sign a lowball contract. but there's no way option C is gonna happen given that the QO is larger than what he'd be getting in the first year of that deal. I'd be very surprised if B happened either. Even if he gets no better offers he'd probably take the QO and roll the dice in 2018

[League Circles]

isn't the QO a tentative contract that goes into effect if the player doesn't sign an offer sheet with another team (or if the "home" team for some reason decides to unilaterally offer more money)?

No, it's an offer that the player must accept in order to go into effect.

which, of course, he would if he didn't get another offer

of course the QO is only an offer. thus the 'O' part. but it's effectively a fallback option for the player offered in exchange for the team retaining the restriction on his free agency

I guess I didn't understand what it was that you didn't understand about the process.

[League Circles]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

obviously WE would prefer that he sign a lowball contract. but there's no way option C is gonna happen given that the QO is larger than what he'd be getting in the first year of that deal. I'd be very surprised if B happened either. Even if he gets no better offers he'd probably take the QO and roll the dice in 2018

I agree C is unlikely to happen, but his Q.O. is just 7.2 million.

[dice]

If Niko takes the QO i really don't want him here. He will be dead to me.

huh? why would that be a bad thing?

It's funny how a number of people are playing dumb with regards to the negative aspects of this. It's one thing to disagree that it's a net negative situation. It's another thing to pretend like you can't comprehend the negative aspect.

nobody's playing dumb. and it's odd that your head would go there. given that there's no reason TO play dumb

so niko finds the market soft, takes the QO and postpones all of this until next offseason rather than take what he feels is a bad deal. who cares? would that be some sort of sign of disrespect to you as a bulls fan? it sure wouldn't make me feel any better or worse about the future of the team. the only thing that would do that is the team making him an obscene offer. which it's pretty apparent is not gonna happen at this point

I find it hard to believe that any decision nikola mirotic makes could be met with any reaction other than "meh." including returning to europe or retiring

[dice]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

obviously WE would prefer that he sign a lowball contract. but there's no way option C is gonna happen given that the QO is larger than what he'd be getting in the first year of that deal. I'd be very surprised if B happened either. Even if he gets no better offers he'd probably take the QO and roll the dice in 2018

I agree C is unlikely to happen, but his Q.O. is just 7.2 million.

ah. i read that the cap hit was over 10 mil, which for whatever reason is a different number than the actual offer

[League Circles]

huh? why would that be a bad thing?

It's funny how a number of people are playing dumb with regards to the negative aspects of this. It's one thing to disagree that it's a net negative situation. It's another thing to pretend like you can't comprehend the negative aspect.

nobody's playing dumb. and it's odd that your head would go there. given that there's no reason TO play dumb

so niko finds the market soft, takes the QO and postpones all of this until next offseason rather than take what he feels is a bad deal. who cares? would that be some sort of sign of disrespect to you as a bulls fan? it sure wouldn't make me feel any better or worse about the future of the team. the only thing that would do that is the team making him an obscene offer. which it's pretty apparent is not gonna happen at this point

I find it hard to believe that any decision nikola mirotic makes could be met with any reaction other than "meh." including returning to europe or retiring

Maybe you took the "he's dead to me" comment a little too literally. The idea is that his presence may both hinder development of others and help win games, neither of which is desirable for a then much less likely to stay long term Niko.

I don't think Niko playing on the QO is so negative that I'd pull it, but it's not a very desirable situation IMO.

[sco]

I was wondering if there is any interplay with a Niko deal, Wade buyout, cap floor and JB TPE; such that if the Bulls are done in FA and they were otherwise going to be below the floor, and needed to either pay Niko more or spread short-fall across others, that they could do a more front-loaded deal. If so, how much could they reduce following years? Could they do something like $15/12/10?

[JeremyB0001]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

Those are sort of strange options. What fan would prefer three years, $36 million over three years, $27 million? Would it really cost $24 million to get a fourth year?

It might be a little too optimistic but my preference would be five years, $60 million.

[Hangtime84]

It's funny how a number of people are playing dumb with regards to the negative aspects of this. It's one thing to disagree that it's a net negative situation. It's another thing to pretend like you can't comprehend the negative aspect.

nobody's playing dumb. and it's odd that your head would go there. given that there's no reason TO play dumb

so niko finds the market soft, takes the QO and postpones all of this until next offseason rather than take what he feels is a bad deal. who cares? would that be some sort of sign of disrespect to you as a bulls fan? it sure wouldn't make me feel any better or worse about the future of the team. the only thing that would do that is the team making him an obscene offer. which it's pretty apparent is not gonna happen at this point

I find it hard to believe that any decision nikola mirotic makes could be met with any reaction other than "meh." including returning to europe or retiring

Maybe you took the "he's dead to me" comment a little too literally. The idea is that his presence may both hinder development of others and help win games, neither of which is desirable for a then much less likely to stay long term Niko.

I don't think Niko playing on the QO is so negative that I'd pull it, but it's not a very desirable situation IMO.

We have Bobby Portis and Lauri who need evaluation and development time. The dead to me statement is acknowledgement of future plans.

If Niko was say 23 I would feel be different. Looking for a way to extend him long term isn't what i'd be looking to do. Maybe Niko does take this QO and still discovers no body wants him for 16mil a year. I'd just pull of the offer and move on, but Paxson has already mentioned he doesn't want a player who he thinks has potential to be good to walk away for nothing.

[League Circles]

obviously WE would prefer that he sign a lowball contract. but there's no way option C is gonna happen given that the QO is larger than what he'd be getting in the first year of that deal. I'd be very surprised if B happened either. Even if he gets no better offers he'd probably take the QO and roll the dice in 2018

I agree C is unlikely to happen, but his Q.O. is just 7.2 million.

ah. i read that the cap hit was over 10 mil, which for whatever reason is a different number than the actual offer

That's correct. They're different cause they serve different purposes. The QO serves to assure that the player gets an approx fair value deal if he wants to. The cap hold (not cap hit, which would be whatever contract he ends up playing on) just serves to prevent the team from taking advantage of the situation and signing other FAs to more money than they'd likely be able to afford in theory.

[League Circles]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

Those are sort of strange options. What fan would prefer three years, $36 million over three years, $27 million? Would it really cost $24 million to get a fourth year?

It might be a little too optimistic but my preference would be five years, $60 million.

That's an interesting deal if Niko would take it. Kind of locks us in a bit, but could be a really excellent value deal for all 5 years if he steps up and plays like I think he can.

[League Circles]

I was wondering if there is any interplay with a Niko deal, Wade buyout, cap floor and JB TPE; such that if the Bulls are done in FA and they were otherwise going to be below the floor, and needed to either pay Niko more or spread short-fall across others, that they could do a more front-loaded deal. If so, how much could they reduce following years? Could they do something like $15/12/10?

No, that's too steep of a decline. IIRC it's limited to 7.5% per year.

[sco]

Here's another wacky thought. What if the Bulls guaranteed Niko a starting job, but as SF (with, barring injury, no min at PF this year). This way we can evaluate Portis (and develop Lauri) this year. If Portis sucks, we jettison him this offseason, and we still have Niko. We aren't taking away mins from a core piece SF this year, and it gives the Bulls some option value on Niko for next year.

[JeremyB0001]

I wish there was a way to stick a quick poll in the middle here - but want to ask folks:

As of Aug 21, which of below best represents your preferred deal with Niko at this moment?

A) $60M/4yr
B) $36M/3yr
C) $27M/3yr
D) Niko Take the QO
E) Bulls withdraw the QO and let him walk
F) A more complex deal with team/Niko options

Those are sort of strange options. What fan would prefer three years, $36 million over three years, $27 million? Would it really cost $24 million to get a fourth year?

It might be a little too optimistic but my preference would be five years, $60 million.

That's an interesting deal if Niko would take it. Kind of locks us in a bit, but could be a really excellent value deal for all 5 years if he steps up and plays like I think he can.

It's a little more high-risk-high-reward for the Bulls. With a five-year deal, if it turns out to be a value contract, Mirotic will have higher trade value than he would on a shorter contract with the same annual salary. The deal would also be so long that the Bulls would have the option of holding on to Mirotic to have him act as a veteran contributor when the team becomes competitive again. The risk is higher, because a longer toxic contract is much harder to unload than a shorter one. But it's a risk I'd be willing to take because it's hard for me to see Mirotic's game falling apart in his 20s.

[JeremyB0001]

I was wondering if there is any interplay with a Niko deal, Wade buyout, cap floor and JB TPE; such that if the Bulls are done in FA and they were otherwise going to be below the floor, and needed to either pay Niko more or spread short-fall across others, that they could do a more front-loaded deal. If so, how much could they reduce following years? Could they do something like $15/12/10?

No, that's too steep of a decline. IIRC it's limited to 7.5% per year.

Front-loading the contract to the fullest extent allowed under the CBA would be wise.

[JeremyB0001]

Here's another wacky thought. What if the Bulls guaranteed Niko a starting job, but as SF (with, barring injury, no min at PF this year). This way we can evaluate Portis (and develop Lauri) this year. If Portis sucks, we jettison him this offseason, and we still have Niko. We aren't taking away mins from a core piece SF this year, and it gives the Bulls some option value on Niko for next year.

It's a poor use of Mirotic's talents. Maybe that's okay in a tanking context. But what if it sends him into a funk that he has trouble breaking out of? That could ruin his trade value.

[League Circles]

Those are sort of strange options. What fan would prefer three years, $36 million over three years, $27 million? Would it really cost $24 million to get a fourth year?

It might be a little too optimistic but my preference would be five years, $60 million.

That's an interesting deal if Niko would take it. Kind of locks us in a bit, but could be a really excellent value deal for all 5 years if he steps up and plays like I think he can.

It's a little more high-risk-high-reward for the Bulls. With a five-year deal, if it turns out to be a value contract, Mirotic will have higher trade value than he would on a shorter contract with the same annual salary. The deal would also be so long that the Bulls would have the option of holding on to Mirotic to have him act as a veteran contributor when the team becomes competitive again. The risk is higher, because a longer toxic contract is much harder to unload than a shorter one. But it's a risk I'd be willing to take because it's hard for me to see Mirotic's game falling apart in his 20s.

Yeah. 2019 summer FA is very important to me, so any money beyond that I want to be small. If it's 3 years for 12 mil a year I'd rather have it be 5 years at 12 mil a year, as either way cuts into 2019 FA cap space, and I'd rather take the possible big reward of a 5 year cheap deal. I'd probably prefer big money for 2 years over the 5 year deal though.

[League Circles]

Here's another wacky thought. What if the Bulls guaranteed Niko a starting job, but as SF (with, barring injury, no min at PF this year). This way we can evaluate Portis (and develop Lauri) this year. If Portis sucks, we jettison him this offseason, and we still have Niko. We aren't taking away mins from a core piece SF this year, and it gives the Bulls some option value on Niko for next year.

I would never guarantee any player a starting job. If they're good enough to command it, it goes without saying. If they're asking for it, it's questionable, and I don't want to get into those situations.

We can develop Lauri and Portis with Niko playing PF. We just need to really limit Lopez' minutes.

[sco]

So Jeremy and League Circles are bidding up the Ebay auction for the #1 Niko Fan license plate. Anyone else feel strongly?

[JeremyB0001]

So Jeremy and League Circles are bidding up the Ebay auction for the #1 Niko Fan license plate. Anyone else feel strongly?

If your cute little commentary on how much I love Mirotic was accurate, wouldn't I want him to sign for five years, $100 million? It would show everyone how great he is and ensure that he would be with the Bulls long term.