Pelton: Bulls projected third-worst team based on RPM

[hungarianjordan]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

14. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 28.5

The bright side of the Butler trade is that Chicago could be well-positioned for a top draft pick. The Bulls are ahead of only the Knicks when it comes to point guard options, and newcomer Zach LaVine is projected by RPM to be worse than replacement level.

The Bulls are ahead of the Hawks (27.0 wins) and Kings (27.4 wins).

[Repeat 3-peat]

Kings Imo will surprise some fans.

ATL lost Millsap and THJR but they're still highly coached. Either way, there is no doubt we'll be bad this upcoming season.

[Rerisen]

Promising, but we need to get as bad as possible.

Hold Zach out as long as possible, and explore trading him for future picks.

Landing top 3 picks will likely be essential to a successful rebuild.

[Evil_Headband]

I suspect the Bulls would project worse with a Wade buyout so there's even more hope.

[Ctownbulls]

They will be worse than the model projects...which is good.

[Red8911]

Idk I see the bulls being a lot better than that. 8-11 eastern conference better. If they trade or release guys like Lopez and wade obviously they will get worse but right now this roster isn't THAT bad. We'll see I just think bulls will surprise and be better than we predict then to be.Let's not forget most east teams are not very good right now and are also "tanking" themselves.

[MC3]

Good news. We will still be worse

[Hangtime84]

Good news for us

[Red Larrivee]

Only way this team is clearly the worst in the league is if they cut everyone and sign G-League players. As of today, they still have a strong case. Orlando, Brooklyn, Phoenix and Atlanta do as well. Lakers, Knicks and Philadelphia have a decent chance despite high lottery talent.

[Red8911]

Good news. We will still be worse

Why so sure? Atlanta,Indiana,Brooklyn,Orlando,NY are all horrible as well and then we have teams like Detroit,Miami,Philly who are also mediocre to bad themselves. Eastern conference is just a mess right now

[DuckIII]

I think the Kings are clearly superior to us in the short term. I have it as a race to the bottom between us and the Hawks.

But just to be on the safe side, let's trade Lopez and buy out Wade before camp starts.

[League Circles]

This needs to be stickied so we can come back and see how accurate it is.

Lavine had a RPM of -2.97 and the worst players in the league are at about -6, so it's unclear to me how RPM has him at worse than replacement level.

[League Circles]

I think the Kings are clearly superior to us in the short term. I have it as a race to the bottom between us and the Hawks.

But just to Hein the safe side, let's trade Lopez and buy out Wade before camp starts.

I'm not at all confident that Wade and Lopez help us win games vs their replacements. Neither player seems to fit at all what we will likely try to play like, so I think if anything they can help us lose a ton. That said, I value development over ping pong balls, and they will hurt development, especially Lopez, so I want them gone anyways, particularly Lopez.

[Rerisen]

This needs to be stickied so we can come back and see how accurate it is.

Lavine had a RPM of -2.97 and the worst players in the league are at about -6, so it's unclear to me how RPM has him at worse than replacement level.

Probably its assumed you can find a -3 replacement player and the ones at -6 were just exceptionally bad even for guys off the rack.

Anyway they don't really explain what goes into RPM projections other than obviously what the guys were doing the previous few years in RPM. So Zach may not be getting any extra credit for his physical potential, or already proven scoring prowess despite that it hasn't translated to team success yet. It's possible he's getting some bump due to age, but probably not enough to overcome a -3.00 in the hole. Some demerit for coming off an ACL would probably also be warranted to be baked in. As its surely possible for him to be rusty for a month or two. Or worst case, never the same.

Overall though I really wouldn't agree with his projection. Especially on a terrible talent team, I'm thinking Zach will almost certainly make a positive impact on floor vs off. Because his one known skill, putting the ball in the basket, should be more needed and maximized in a way that wasn't the case in Minnesota. Other words its easier to be valuable and lift up a horrible team than it is to move an average team to a good team.

[Stratmaster]

This needs to be stickied so we can come back and see how accurate it is.

Lavine had a RPM of -2.97 and the worst players in the league are at about -6, so it's unclear to me how RPM has him at worse than replacement level.

Probably its assumed you can find a -3 replacement player and the ones at -6 were just exceptionally bad even for guys off the rack.

Anyway they don't really explain what goes into RPM projections other than obviously what the guys were doing the previous few years in RPM. So Zach may not be getting any extra credit for his physical potential, or already proven scoring prowess despite that it hasn't translated to team success yet. It's possible he's getting some bump due to age, but probably not enough to overcome a -3.00 in the hole. Some demerit for coming off an ACL would probably also be warranted to be baked in. As its surely possible for him to be rusty for a month or two. Or worst case, never the same.

Overall though I really wouldn't agree with his projection. Especially on a terrible talent team, I'm thinking Zach will almost certainly make a positive impact on floor vs off. Because his one known skill, putting the ball in the basket, should be more needed and maximized in a way that wasn't the case in Minnesota. Other words its easier to be valuable and lift up a horrible team than it is to move an average team to a good team.

I agree, especially since that scoring skill talent he has was the most prevalent skill on his old team and is sorely lacking on his new team.

[DJhitek]

I think that's right. I have a hard time believing this team can win more than 25 games but I'm naturally pessimistic.

[molepharmer]

Here's a link to the Vegas prediction thread. They had us at 29.5, just better than Phoenix and Brooklyn. So both of these predictions only have 3 teams winning less than 30 games. That has not happened in the last 25+ years.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1591571

[League Circles]

This needs to be stickied so we can come back and see how accurate it is.

Lavine had a RPM of -2.97 and the worst players in the league are at about -6, so it's unclear to me how RPM has him at worse than replacement level.

Probably its assumed you can find a -3 replacement player and the ones at -6 were just exceptionally bad even for guys off the rack.

Anyway they don't really explain what goes into RPM projections other than obviously what the guys were doing the previous few years in RPM. So Zach may not be getting any extra credit for his physical potential, or already proven scoring prowess despite that it hasn't translated to team success yet. It's possible he's getting some bump due to age, but probably not enough to overcome a -3.00 in the hole. Some demerit for coming off an ACL would probably also be warranted to be baked in. As its surely possible for him to be rusty for a month or two. Or worst case, never the same.

Overall though I really wouldn't agree with his projection. Especially on a terrible talent team, I'm thinking Zach will almost certainly make a positive impact on floor vs off. Because his one known skill, putting the ball in the basket, should be more needed and maximized in a way that wasn't the case in Minnesota. Other words its easier to be valuable and lift up a horrible team than it is to move an average team to a good team.

Oh, I always thought replacement player meant a guy you could actually get to replace someone, meaning someone not under contract to another team, meaning a D league player.

You talk about context to correct for RPM. I thought RPM was already supposed to take context of teammates out of the equation?

[Rerisen]

You talk about context to correct for RPM. I thought RPM was already supposed to take context of teammates out of the equation?

Well I was talking more raw on/off there. It is possible his RPM would be lower than his Raw if he's just looking better due to horrible teammates. Then we have a more complicated picture.

But his real effectiveness, whether raw or adjusted, might actually get better due to better fit and role, which is more what I expect. Due to his best skill isn't being duplicated so much as in Minny where Kat and Wiggins also needed the ball a lot.

If the latter were to happen it wouldn't mean RPM was wrongly assessing his impact in Minny, just his situation massively changed, and/or he made actual improvement that also would have happened in Minny had he stayed there.

Also should note if the Bulls are a bottom 3 team next year, they will not be a normal context team at all, which might mess with value ratings more starkly.

If however, this projection ends up being right and Zach does stay a negative impact player, yikes that would be bad. I'd give him a break if he misses half the year, but if he comes back fairly quickly, but were still be an on floor negative for the 4th straight year and 4th overall career season, real real bad sign for both his monetary value via contract, and for his future potential.

Anyway, Zach aside, for the rest of the Bulls players and team projection, I'd expect the RPM based projection to be likely much more accurate. And even if it were to get say Zach wrong, probably wouldn't be by so much to throw off the overall by too much. Though not like its going out on some big limb to say the Bulls are going to suck next year.

Now if someone is high on every single piece we got for Jimmy (Zach, Dunn, Lauri) they should be disagreeing with this assessment and probably projecting us over 30 wins.

[MrSparkle]

AFAIC stats don't lie.

And from a statistical POV, we completely ate dirt in the Minnesota (and OKC) trade(s).

Don't get me wrong, I apply common sense and the eye-test to my evaluations, and I factor the unpredictableness of sports and chemistry. Sure maybe Felicio, Portis, Dunn, Niko, and Zipser really thrive in new situations and bigger roles, along with Hoiberg without his "locker-room killer."

But it's just hilariously optimistic to see this team winning more than 25 games, and I actually think they'll be even worse next year, after Wade and possibly Niko part ways.

As I've said my main legitimate concern is that Wade, Niko and Lopez add somewhere around +8 wins. Now that they're phenomenal players, but they're veterans with starting experience and good for a solid 30-minute game here or there. The type of players that help a playoff team out.

So if this team has relative luck and success as other teams take nights off against us, and those three are here to help "mentor" our young players, we might not have a top-3 pick coming our way.

This is what folks seem to forget. The past few years the Bulls have had a target on their back, so we've been winning around the .500 mark with teams playing hard, with chips on their shoulders (esp. Milwaukee, man oh man did those guys want to beat us every game -- Snell, conference rivals, the game 6 blowout in 2015).

Now we're gonna be the "night off" team. People wondered how expansion Toronto beat the dynasty Bulls: well MJ and co. probably hit the bottle hard the night before and didn't give two sh*ts prepping for the game.

So I can see this joke of a team racking up 28 or even 30 wins in a pathetic conference, Pax mustering that up to "promise" in our young group, and then us not getting the superstar pick we want. There's a big difference between Lebron (#1), #3 and 4 (Melo, Bosh) and then #6 and 7 (Kaman, Kirk), even if the draft is epically great. Right now, I don't see the team positioned for a "Philly" type tank.

Come January, several team realize their season is down the tube and they make the correct adjustments for a total tank job. And they're going to out-tank this franchise, because this FO doesn't know how to exactly position their chess-board.

I see them with zero sure-bet career pieces (Lauri and Zach are the closest bets, and my golly I can think of about 40 young players I'd rather have), and a long confused lottery process ahead of them.

I see us a really bad team for the foreseeable future, with the ability and perhaps the drive to get "empty wins". My 2c.