Zach LaVine Rookie Extension - what to do?

[FecesOfDeath]

Wiggins was even more net negative than LaVine was and had an eFG% that was 60 points lower than Zach's, yet look at the money Thibs gave him. LaVine's health will factor into his impact this season, but if the Bulls can get a Wiggins contract out of a healthy LaVine, then they should take it and run.

Speaking factually, what you're saying isn't true. I don't see stats that show Wiggins as a net negative (like LaVine was every year). Wiggins had an on/off last year of -.3/-3.9 and -1.1/-9.4 the year before. Meanwhile, LaVine's team did much, much better without him playing all 3 years (which is the opposite of Wiggins).

According to basketball-reference, in 2016-17 season:

Zach had an OBPM of 2.2 and a DBPM of -2.4 for a net BPM of -0.3. Plus, his VORP was 0.8.
Wiggins had an OBPM of 0.2 and a DBPM of -2.9 for a net BPM of -2.7. His VORP was -0.6.

[Hangtime84]

If I'm Chicago I'm locking him up on a 5 year deal. You gotta roll the dice here

[dice]

ou don't have to be as good as Jimmy butler to get a near-max contract coming off your rookie contract.

you should have to be half as good. at least. and lavine is not

But then, you think Lavine sucks. So I shouldn't be bothering.

you should bother reading, because I never said he sucks. he's not GOOD. he's nowhere near sniffing a max contract. but he doesn't suck overall

And I believe he is good, assuming no issues with the knee. He is considered one of the top 5 most athletic players in the league, scored almost 20 ppg as the 3rd option and hits 3's at a 39% clip. He will likely average over 20 ppg with the Bulls. If he plays, has no further repercussions from the knee and just shows slight improvement in any facet of his game he will likely get near max...~20 mil.

I agree with you that that's what he would get (if not more). but he wouldn't deserve it unless he makes some huge strides defensively. and I have no faith that will happen. I see a realistic ceiling as a quality 2nd option w/ bad defense

[Leslie Forman]

Wiggins was even more net negative than LaVine was and had an eFG% that was 60 points lower than Zach's, yet look at the money Thibs gave him. LaVine's health will factor into his impact this season, but if the Bulls can get a Wiggins contract out of a healthy LaVine, then they should take it and run.

Speaking factually, what you're saying isn't true. I don't see stats that show Wiggins as a net negative (like LaVine was every year). Wiggins had an on/off last year of -.3/-3.9 and -1.1/-9.4 the year before. Meanwhile, LaVine's team did much, much better without him playing all 3 years (which is the opposite of Wiggins).

According to basketball-reference, in 2016-17 season:

Zach had an OBPM of 2.2 and a DBPM of -2.4 for a net BPM of -0.3. Plus, his VORP was 0.8.
Wiggins had an OBPM of 0.2 and a DBPM of -2.9 for a net BPM of -2.7. His VORP was -0.6.

BPM is box score based and is not really accurate for determining on/off impact.

If you look here you'll see that when LaVine played, they had a netRtg of -3.6. When he sat, they were +1.0. When Wiggins was on, it was -0.5, off, -2.6.

I don't think Wiggins is that good and his individual stats aren't really any better, but for whatever reason he has a far more positive impact for the Wolves than LaVine.

[dice]

Wiggins was even more net negative than LaVine was and had an eFG% that was 60 points lower than Zach's, yet look at the money Thibs gave him. LaVine's health will factor into his impact this season, but if the Bulls can get a Wiggins contract out of a healthy LaVine, then they should take it and run.

Speaking factually, what you're saying isn't true. I don't see stats that show Wiggins as a net negative (like LaVine was every year). Wiggins had an on/off last year of -.3/-3.9 and -1.1/-9.4 the year before. Meanwhile, LaVine's team did much, much better without him playing all 3 years (which is the opposite of Wiggins).

According to basketball-reference, in 2016-17 season:

Zach had an OBPM of 2.2 and a DBPM of -2.4 for a net BPM of -0.3. Plus, his VORP was 0.8.
Wiggins had an OBPM of 0.2 and a DBPM of -2.9 for a net BPM of -2.7. His VORP was -0.6.

espn RAPM (a much better advanced stat), rookie years through this season:

wiggins .47o (2.13)d
lavine (2.53)o (4.34)d

wiggins .67o (1.84)d
lavine (0.06)o (3.65)d

wiggins 1.56o (3.16)d
lavine (.62)o (2.35)d

lavine was clearly better this past season offensively than he was the previous year, so the net negative for 2017 is probably statistical noise (due in part to injury-reduced minutes), but otherwise I don't have any reason to believe those numbers are particularly off-the mark. 3 season averages:

wiggins 0.90o (2.38)d
lavine (1.07)o (3.45)d

so wiggins looks to have been the significantly better player since entering the league, but lavine has certainly closed the gap more recently through substantial improvement. wiggins's progress has left a lot to be desired

[Stratmaster]

you should have to be half as good. at least. and lavine is not


you should bother reading, because I never said he sucks. he's not GOOD. he's nowhere near sniffing a max contract. but he doesn't suck overall

And I believe he is good, assuming no issues with the knee. He is considered one of the top 5 most athletic players in the league, scored almost 20 ppg as the 3rd option and hits 3's at a 39% clip. He will likely average over 20 ppg with the Bulls. If he plays, has no further repercussions from the knee and just shows slight improvement in any facet of his game he will likely get near max...~20 mil.

I agree with you that that's what he would get (if not more). but he wouldn't deserve it unless he makes some huge strides defensively. and I have no faith that will happen. I see a realistic ceiling as a quality 2nd option w/ bad defense

If you can score at his rate in this league, and shoot 3's at that rate, you deserve it. Let's face it, defense is a slowly declining skillset in general. What is considered great defense now was above average 2 decades ago. What is above average now was average then.

[dice]

And I believe he is good, assuming no issues with the knee. He is considered one of the top 5 most athletic players in the league, scored almost 20 ppg as the 3rd option and hits 3's at a 39% clip. He will likely average over 20 ppg with the Bulls. If he plays, has no further repercussions from the knee and just shows slight improvement in any facet of his game he will likely get near max...~20 mil.

I agree with you that that's what he would get (if not more). but he wouldn't deserve it unless he makes some huge strides defensively. and I have no faith that will happen. I see a realistic ceiling as a quality 2nd option w/ bad defense

If you can score at his rate in this league, and shoot 3's at that rate, you deserve it. Let's face it, defense is a slowly declining skillset in general. What is considered great defense now was above average 2 decades ago. What is above average now was average then.

first of all, i don't think that defense has declined that much at all. but it's irrelevant to whether it's important. and the reality is that there is fairly close to as wide a range in defensive ability/impact on a game as there is in offensive ability

[dougthonus]

Great, let's trade him for more players who won't be desirable max players. Then we can trade them too. At some point, you're going to have to pay a young player on his upside, even in a rebuild.

At some point, you're going to have to give a guy much more than he's worth? I'm not sure that's true, but I don't think the problem is the upside. The problem is that many people feel Lavine's profile (low PER, low contribution in all but scoring) projects into a player without much real upside to impact winning.

Gary Harris is a good example, he scored less than Lavine, but his profile is that of a player with genuine upside.

Imagine if this team had just not made that dumb McDermott trade and took Nurkic and Harris, so sad to think that was a legit possibility.

[dougthonus]

If we're only giving big contracts to the next KD or LeBron, then we're going to be waiting forever.

There's a wide array of players between KD/LeBron and Lavine. Probably about 30 of the players in that gap are worth a max contract.

[MalagaBulls]

Maybe LaVine will take the Butler approach and bet on himself.

[Red Larrivee]

At some point, you're going to have to give a guy much more than he's worth? I'm not sure that's true, but I don't think the problem is the upside. The problem is that many people feel Lavine's profile (low PER, low contribution in all but scoring) projects into a player without much real upside to impact winning.

Gary Harris is a good example, he scored less than Lavine, but his profile is that of a player with genuine upside.

Imagine if this team had just not made that dumb McDermott trade and took Nurkic and Harris, so sad to think that was a legit possibility.

How doesn't LaVine have the profile of a player with genuine upside? He's 6'5, freakishly athletic, a good three-point shooter and can create his own shot.

Through three seasons:

Harris: 12.9 PER, .561 TS%, 46% FG, 14.4 points per 36
LaVine: 13.4 PER, .547 TS%, 45%FG, 17.1 points per 36

DRPM the last three seasons:

Harris: -2.37 (2017), -2.04 (2016), -2.39 (2015)
LaVine: -2.35 (2017), -3.65 (2016), -4.34 (2015)

Neither giving you much of anything defensively.

Offensive plays:

Harris / LaVine:

Isolation: .77 PPP / .83 PPP
Spot-Up: 1.21 PPP / 1.15 PPP
Off Screen: .95 PPP / 1.00 PPP
Pick-And-Roll: .81 PPP / .85 PPP
Handoff: .77 PPP / 1.01 PPP
Cut: 1.39 PPP / 1.42 PPP

One player just got $84 million. If LaVine is as good as he's been so far through his career, his number will be the same if not more.

[Red Larrivee]

:noway:

gary harris is MUCH better than lavine. and he still didn't get close to the max

No he isn't. Harris has become a solid player, but he's severely overrated here largely because of the disappointment of the McDermott trade. He has similar numbers as LaVine across the board and both have been zeroes defensively. The difference is, LaVine clearly has better tools that translate into higher upside.

LaVine averaged 18.9 ppg with a 57.6 TS% last season on a higher usage % (21.7) than any month of Harris' season. LaVine has actually showed that he can put up big numbers as a focal point of an offense and now his role is only going to grow here.

I'm not saying that LaVine is a max player. I'm saying that eventually Chicago is going to have to pony up significant money for a young player based on his upside. This team can't use the mentality that they won't unless it's a true young star.

[dougthonus]

How doesn't LaVine have the profile of a player with genuine upside? He's 6'5, freakishly athletic, a good three-point shooter and can create his own shot.

I may have been a bit harsh on Lavine, but his PER has been below 15 the past two years and was steady at 14.3 to 14.6. Harris's PER increased up to 16.5 and has increased steadily each year in the league. Harris also has a 61% TS% which is much better than Lavine (though Lavine's 57% is solid). They score at a similar pace, but Harris does more.

Beyond that, Lavine is also coming off an ACL tear which typically destroys players who rely on athleticism IMO (I know other people will argue that it isn't true or that if you are young enough it doesn't matter, let's all hope that's the case with Lavine).

We'll see how it goes. I certainly hope that I'm wrong on Lavine. Like I said, he looks like the next Kevin Martin to me. I always liked Kevin Martin and thought he was a solid player, but he's like a 15 million per year player on this NBA contract system.

[GimmeDat]

Kevin Martin is my immediate comparison to his production so far - high volume, efficient scorer. There are slight differences - LaVine's probably a slightly more prolific 3 point shooter, but Kevin Martin lived at the line a tonne more.

However, I do think LaVine has better overall upside. He's still super young, did the injury at age 21, now 22. He's already got much better ball handling and passing ability than KMart, and I think has the potential to be a lot better than he is in that regard. He's bulked up it seems, and I think even made a comment about wanting to get to the line more.. if he can work on that, he will be an absolutely elite scorer. I think he's less of sieve than KMart on defense as well.. LaVine is by no means even an average defender yet, but I think the effort level and physical attributes give him more potential in that area.

Certain statistics aren't particularly kind to LaVine in terms of impact, but when I watch his game I don't think there's any doubt his prowess is really heavily beneficial to a team. He was sort of a redundant 3rd volume option in Minnesota, which minimized his value there. Next to Wiggins/KAT a Gary Harris type is infinitely more valuable than a LaVine type, imo.

However, depending on the sort of players we bring in during this rebuilding period, I think LaVine may be the perfect compliment. In general you look at the next 2 drafts, and there's a lot of raw, physical specimens with 2 way potential. Now of course, if you're intention is to build an elite team, LaVine won't be the only volume scoring option, of course, but if the team makeup is more geared around athleticism and defense, and potentially a more front-court skewed talent distribution if the 2018 pick turns in to a big, then I think LaVine will be of high impact on the perimeter.

Another factor worth consider with this player comparison going on is I think Harris' volume and efficiency is aided by playing in a good offensive system, with a team offense involving an elite playmaking big in Jokic on top of PG play. LaVine possesses shot creation ability which allows him to score at the volume he does more independently from the system or playmaking around him, and for him to maintain the efficiency he does with that in mind is pretty impressive. Of course, we should be looking at how a player fits in to a good team more than a bad one given that's our goal, and that's where the debate arises I think about what the better piece is between an elite role player and a.'pseudo-star' I guess. I think the answer lies a lot in roster makeup.

Sorry for the scattered thoughts, its 1am and I'm typing on my phone.

[Red Larrivee]

How doesn't LaVine have the profile of a player with genuine upside? He's 6'5, freakishly athletic, a good three-point shooter and can create his own shot.

I may have been a bit harsh on Lavine, but his PER has been below 15 the past two years and was steady at 14.3 to 14.6. Harris's PER increased up to 16.5 and has increased steadily each year in the league. Harris also has a 61% TS% which is much better than Lavine (though Lavine's 57% is solid). They score at a similar pace, but Harris does more.

Beyond that, Lavine is also coming off an ACL tear which typically destroys players who rely on athleticism IMO (I know other people will argue that it isn't true or that if you are young enough it doesn't matter, let's all hope that's the case with Lavine).

We'll see how it goes. I certainly hope that I'm wrong on Lavine. Like I said, he looks like the next Kevin Martin to me. I always liked Kevin Martin and thought he was a solid player, but he's like a 15 million per year player on this NBA contract system.

What "more" does Harris do than LaVine? The numbers I posted don't show him doing anything more.

[TheSuzerain]

How doesn't LaVine have the profile of a player with genuine upside? He's 6'5, freakishly athletic, a good three-point shooter and can create his own shot.

I may have been a bit harsh on Lavine, but his PER has been below 15 the past two years and was steady at 14.3 to 14.6. Harris's PER increased up to 16.5 and has increased steadily each year in the league. Harris also has a 61% TS% which is much better than Lavine (though Lavine's 57% is solid). They score at a similar pace, but Harris does more.

Beyond that, Lavine is also coming off an ACL tear which typically destroys players who rely on athleticism IMO (I know other people will argue that it isn't true or that if you are young enough it doesn't matter, let's all hope that's the case with Lavine).

We'll see how it goes. I certainly hope that I'm wrong on Lavine. Like I said, he looks like the next Kevin Martin to me. I always liked Kevin Martin and thought he was a solid player, but he's like a 15 million per year player on this NBA contract system.

What "more" does Harris do than LaVine? The numbers I posted don't show him doing anything more.

Who cares about Harris?

The current iteration of the Bulls offering Gary Harris big money would also be really stupid.

[Alcatraz17]

Apologies if this was already posted .. I quickly skimmed through this thread and didn't see it posted.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/ct-zach-lavine-recovery-bulls-notes-spt-1013-20171012-story.html

[MalagaBulls]

Apologies if this was already posted .. I quickly skimmed through this thread and didn't see it posted.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/ct-zach-lavine-recovery-bulls-notes-spt-1013-20171012-story.html

Good stuff. It reiterates most of what we have speculated. The FO did not trade for Zach to let him walk and if the extension does not get done by the 16th deadline then it will be be addressed in the off season when he is an RFA.

[DuckIII]

If I'm Chicago I'm locking him up on a 5 year deal. You gotta roll the dice here

Agreed as a general principle. If he has a strong season and continues to trend upwards, like it or not, we need to extend him for 3+ years even at some really big numbers.

We have the money and the rest of our anticipated "core" won't be facing extensions until Lavine's deal is nearly over.

It's kind of a no brainer actually. It will be a hard pill to swallow for fans who don't think much of him, but it's the only call to make.

[DuckIII]

If you're maxing LaVine with the intent of him always being your best player, then it's not desirable. But, Chicago would not be in that situation.

If we're only giving big contracts to the next KD or LeBron, then we're going to be waiting forever.

If he's in any way continuing to trend upward, you retain him. If he isn't worth the money he'll be expiring when your young draft core is entering the phase for extending them.

Lavine's contract is a minor issue. It's actually ideal from a timing perspective.