Silver is for it, the Player’s Union has been fighting for it for a long time, so all that would be required to get rid of the one & done is probably just a vote from the owners.
It’s mainly there, according to Stern, to protect teams from turning their high draft picks to garbage ala Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Sebastian Telfair. How good guys look out of HS is usually completely different than college. Austin Rivers was a top 5 player in the country after his HS career.
I’m not sure why owners would vote for it unless it helps them in some way.
The damage could be pretty high. KAT went an easy #1 in his draft, but after HS the rankings were
1. Okafor
2. Mudiay
3. Stanley Johnson
4. Cliff Alexander
5. KAT
I guess Silver could be for it in a backdoor way to punish tanking?
"Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
The younger you make the draft players eligible, the harder you make it for teams to correctly identify talent with their picks. For every LeBron James you have a Lenny Cooke; for every Derrick Rose you have Sebastian Telfair.
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
DanTown8587 wrote:The younger you make the draft players eligible, the harder you make it for teams to correctly identify talent with their picks. For every LeBron James you have a Lenny Cooke; for every Derrick Rose you have Sebastian Telfair.
I'd have to look that up, but I'm not sure history will support that. I bet if you look at the first round prep-to-pros picks you'll find a pretty high percentage turned out to have solid careers.
But obviously the more information the better for the drafting team.
Once a pickle, never a cucumber again.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Great that NCAA could get screwed and not just suck guys dry (money wise) for their talent. Though I’d like to see some kind of league or maybe even just use G-League as an alternative if guys don’t want to go to college ball. Guys need to have some kind of real life experience before they come to the league. I feel you could potentially put too much money in a kids hand and they go do something really stupid.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
I think its a two edged sword...there are obvious success stories out of high school with Kobe, KG, etc but at the same time there could've been many disasterous ones to go with previous bad choices like Kwame...
Coming out of their senior year Shabazz Muhammed and Terrance Jones were being called better than LeBron potentially and yet look at how they panned out...that could've been a potential 1 and 2 pick from that year and they would've ended up miserably. I think 18 year olds need time to mature and get used to the game.
I say turn the NBAGL into a full on minor league system like the NHL and MLB then allow players to be drafted twice like baseball (if they sign the deal they can play in the GL until ready for NBA) or they can opt to go to school and be drafted again later on after improving their stock and skills.
Coming out of their senior year Shabazz Muhammed and Terrance Jones were being called better than LeBron potentially and yet look at how they panned out...that could've been a potential 1 and 2 pick from that year and they would've ended up miserably. I think 18 year olds need time to mature and get used to the game.
I say turn the NBAGL into a full on minor league system like the NHL and MLB then allow players to be drafted twice like baseball (if they sign the deal they can play in the GL until ready for NBA) or they can opt to go to school and be drafted again later on after improving their stock and skills.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Never liked one and done so yes, please let it go.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
DuckIII wrote:DanTown8587 wrote:The younger you make the draft players eligible, the harder you make it for teams to correctly identify talent with their picks. For every LeBron James you have a Lenny Cooke; for every Derrick Rose you have Sebastian Telfair.
I'd have to look that up, but I'm not sure history will support that. I bet if you look at the first round prep-to-pros picks you'll find a pretty high percentage turned out to have solid careers.
But obviously the more information the better for the drafting team.
The reason you have a draft system is to make sure bad teams end up with the best players; the question isn’t do preps have solid careers but do preps drafted in the top 5-10 have similar success as top players drafted before when teams had more scouting information. I think there is slightly less success for teams drafting prep players than drafting college players who played for multiple years or even 1 year.
...
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
DanTown8587 wrote:The younger you make the draft players eligible, the harder you make it for teams to correctly identify talent with their picks. For every LeBron James you have a Lenny Cooke; for every Derrick Rose you have Sebastian Telfair.
Difference being, teams today each have their own G League team, which means teams could send their HSer to that league to help said player to transitioning from HSer to the pros.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Seems like a lot of HS talent is going to foreign leagues anyway.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Yes, yes, yes.
I think with the strength of foreign pro leagues and the small direct minor league system, a hockey style set up makes the most sense- with a few changes.
Automatically draft eligible at 18, and you hold those draft rights for 4 years. (Since players are automatically draft eligible rather than having to declare, this should help skirt around NCAA eligibility rules. This is how it works in hockey, although the NCAA will probably try and fight it more with basketball since its such a revenue sport. Baseball used to be more lax like this where "draft+follow picks existed, but NCAA has started to crack down on Players having "advisors" and such and playing the system). Players drafted after 21 have their draft rights for only 3 years. Anyone undrafted by 22 or at the conclusion of their draft rights become a unrestricted free agent.
Entry contracts are now 2+1 option yr contracts followed by RFA (as it exists today). However if the player is under 22 (basically, anyone signed straight out of their age 18 season), you create a exclusive rights FA class. These free agents can receive a scaled QO which makes them 1. UFA, 2. RFA with draft compensation or 3. Exclusive FA- similar to an NFL franchise tag with a set scale salary that would be like a max contract today. If they play out the year on the scale 2 or 3 QO they enter the following year as a RFA (scale 1 players become full UFA already). They're eligible to sign a full 5 year extension once they receive that QO though.
Entry level contracts are fully eligible to be sent back and forth between the G league their first 2 years. In their third year, they will be exposed to waivers if optioned to the G league. Passing through waivers makes them lose RFA eligibility after the season (claimed or not). However if they would have otherwise been part of the Exclusive rights FA group, they can still get the 1 year UFA QO. If you're a claiming team who wants to keep those rights, you have a 48 hour window to negotiate a trade and retain those RFA/EFA rights. (Fyi this would create a non waiver trade deadline as in MLB- so there may be some playoff eligibility rules to sort out)
The G league does turn into a full minor league system in which you have exclusive rights on all your players, but all G league contracts are for 1 year, except for two 2-way contracts which can be up to two years in length. Non 2-way guys can be elevated to the NBA team at any time @ a min salary deal, but will pass through waivers if sent back to the G league. They can also sign a full big league contract at any time if their current team is operating with cap space or cap exceptions.
I would make the draft at least 5 rounds eventually, but you'll probably scale up to this point over a few years. Realistically anything after the first 40 picks will be very speculative in nature, and eventually even many first round picks won't sign right away as well. For the first year after 1+done is eliminated, age 19 prospects will get treated as if they were 18 yr old prospects. You have the same type of rookie salary scale, but it's set based on the year you sign, not the year you're drafted. The scale will be flatter than it is today, but with greater bonus/incentive pay allowances to appropriately pay top performers.
During the period you hold their rights, but haven't signed them to an entry contract, they are eligible to participate in training camps and summer leagues (though the NCAA guys probably won't be allowed to), and they can obviously sign other pro contracts during that time. However this might eventually mean the NBA needs to negotiate with the Euroleague. In exchange for not tying down drafted Euroleague players with long deals with exhorbitant buyouts, the NBA shortens the draft eligibility of Euroleague players. In NHL terms, Canadian league junior players draft rights are held for only 2 years v 4 years for all others. Or they do nothing, and you get something like the current setup where occasionally draft eligible Euroleague players' draft stock is weighed down with buyout issues. The Euroleague will have some leverage here though, and if the NCAA ever decides to treat their players like the revenue producing talents they are, theyll gain massive leverage to negotiate with the NBA. I don't think any other pro league will have any meaningful leverage to restrict player movement to the NBA.
I think with the strength of foreign pro leagues and the small direct minor league system, a hockey style set up makes the most sense- with a few changes.
Automatically draft eligible at 18, and you hold those draft rights for 4 years. (Since players are automatically draft eligible rather than having to declare, this should help skirt around NCAA eligibility rules. This is how it works in hockey, although the NCAA will probably try and fight it more with basketball since its such a revenue sport. Baseball used to be more lax like this where "draft+follow picks existed, but NCAA has started to crack down on Players having "advisors" and such and playing the system). Players drafted after 21 have their draft rights for only 3 years. Anyone undrafted by 22 or at the conclusion of their draft rights become a unrestricted free agent.
Entry contracts are now 2+1 option yr contracts followed by RFA (as it exists today). However if the player is under 22 (basically, anyone signed straight out of their age 18 season), you create a exclusive rights FA class. These free agents can receive a scaled QO which makes them 1. UFA, 2. RFA with draft compensation or 3. Exclusive FA- similar to an NFL franchise tag with a set scale salary that would be like a max contract today. If they play out the year on the scale 2 or 3 QO they enter the following year as a RFA (scale 1 players become full UFA already). They're eligible to sign a full 5 year extension once they receive that QO though.
Entry level contracts are fully eligible to be sent back and forth between the G league their first 2 years. In their third year, they will be exposed to waivers if optioned to the G league. Passing through waivers makes them lose RFA eligibility after the season (claimed or not). However if they would have otherwise been part of the Exclusive rights FA group, they can still get the 1 year UFA QO. If you're a claiming team who wants to keep those rights, you have a 48 hour window to negotiate a trade and retain those RFA/EFA rights. (Fyi this would create a non waiver trade deadline as in MLB- so there may be some playoff eligibility rules to sort out)
The G league does turn into a full minor league system in which you have exclusive rights on all your players, but all G league contracts are for 1 year, except for two 2-way contracts which can be up to two years in length. Non 2-way guys can be elevated to the NBA team at any time @ a min salary deal, but will pass through waivers if sent back to the G league. They can also sign a full big league contract at any time if their current team is operating with cap space or cap exceptions.
I would make the draft at least 5 rounds eventually, but you'll probably scale up to this point over a few years. Realistically anything after the first 40 picks will be very speculative in nature, and eventually even many first round picks won't sign right away as well. For the first year after 1+done is eliminated, age 19 prospects will get treated as if they were 18 yr old prospects. You have the same type of rookie salary scale, but it's set based on the year you sign, not the year you're drafted. The scale will be flatter than it is today, but with greater bonus/incentive pay allowances to appropriately pay top performers.
During the period you hold their rights, but haven't signed them to an entry contract, they are eligible to participate in training camps and summer leagues (though the NCAA guys probably won't be allowed to), and they can obviously sign other pro contracts during that time. However this might eventually mean the NBA needs to negotiate with the Euroleague. In exchange for not tying down drafted Euroleague players with long deals with exhorbitant buyouts, the NBA shortens the draft eligibility of Euroleague players. In NHL terms, Canadian league junior players draft rights are held for only 2 years v 4 years for all others. Or they do nothing, and you get something like the current setup where occasionally draft eligible Euroleague players' draft stock is weighed down with buyout issues. The Euroleague will have some leverage here though, and if the NCAA ever decides to treat their players like the revenue producing talents they are, theyll gain massive leverage to negotiate with the NBA. I don't think any other pro league will have any meaningful leverage to restrict player movement to the NBA.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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jnrjr79
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
DuckIII wrote:jnrjr79 wrote:What is necessary to remove the one-and-done rule? Is it simply league policy that the commissioner can revoke, something requiring the owners' approval, or something collectively bargained that would require amending the CBA? I assume it's not collectively bargained because it doesn't apply to current labor, but I suppose veteran players enhance their job security by keeping the next batch of young players out for an extra year, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
The article touches on this briefly, by noting that Silver has already reached out to Michelle Roberts to confirm that neither then NBA nor the NBAPA consider it an issue that is required to be delayed until the next CBA. But there are no specifics noted, so I really don't know the answer.
Assuming Silver can do it with the stroke of a pen, one would presume he would not be so hasty as to implement it next year and create chaos. So, you'd be looking, presumably, at the 2019 draft. As you noted, that would be the dream scenario for the Bulls, who could be on the upswing as early as next season depending on how their young players pan out and whether they acquire any meaningful free agents with this offseason's projected cap space. It would also make me somewhat less upset if the Bulls do only attempt a mini-tank this year and start trying to be better next year.
Please let it be so.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
I like players being in college longer but this and the lottery change screw us after this year. The year after this draft will suck if you pull out all the 1 year players.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
TheStig wrote:I like players being in college longer but this and the lottery change screw us after this year. The year after this draft will suck if you pull out all the 1 year players.
Actually, it seems like this is setting up to help the Bulls very much. I sincerely doubt Silver would yank the one-and-done rule for the 2018 draft. It would be too disruptive to NBA scouting departments and D-I basketball programs. The earliest I can imagine it being, and what would be ideal for the Bulls, is the 2019 draft. In the 2019 draft, assuming the Bulls are improving some and no longer a bottom 3 team, the odds of them popping into a top 3 slot with the new ping pong ball ratios improve. That's great! And, if the Bulls don't make a leap toward the top, the draft would project to be significantly deeper than normal, because you'd have both the one-and-done guys in the draft along with some additional elite high school prospects that wouldn't otherwise be there. That's also great!
Honestly, this seems like the ideal scenario.
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
I never understood why NBA fans want highschoolers in the league...
For every Lebron there were 10 or 20 Darius Miles...
For every Lebron there were 10 or 20 Darius Miles...
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Not to mention the NBA is way way wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more stacked with talent right now than when they allowed those bum highschoolers in!
The NBA is on the right track right now as is, if anything make them stay out of highschool for 2 years, don't go backwards. If it ain't broke don't break it!
The NBA is on the right track right now as is, if anything make them stay out of highschool for 2 years, don't go backwards. If it ain't broke don't break it!
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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MC3
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Chi wrote:Not to mention the NBA is way way wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more stacked with talent right now than when they allowed those bum highschoolers in!
The NBA is on the right track right now as is, if anything make them stay out of highschool for 2 years, don't go backwards. If it ain't broke don't break it!
Cause we would had Durant instead Tyrus if they allowed those bums!
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Chi
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
MC3 wrote:Chi wrote:Not to mention the NBA is way way wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more stacked with talent right now than when they allowed those bum highschoolers in!
The NBA is on the right track right now as is, if anything make them stay out of highschool for 2 years, don't go backwards. If it ain't broke don't break it!
Cause we would had Durant instead Tyrus if they allowed those bums!
Doubtful...
But even if true, KD would have been a bum for years just like Kobe was...
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Chi wrote:I never understood why NBA fans want highschoolers in the league...
For every Lebron there were 10 or 20 Darius Miles...
100% true...look at even lesser extents, jsut a few years ago as seniors Terrance Jones and Shabazz Muhammed were considered to become better than LeBron out of HS look what happened when people saw their real talents...
Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Peelboy
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Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Per Wikipedia: List of players drafted from HS to NBA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_high_school_draftees#List
From 1995 on, (2) means 2d rounder:
Garnett
Kobe
Jermaine O'Neal
McGrady
Al Harrington
Rashard Lewis (2)
Korleone Young (2)
Jonathan Bender
Leon Smith
Darius Miles
DeShawn Stevenson
Kwame
Tyson Chandler
Eddy Curry
DeSagana Diop
Ousmane Cisse (2)
Amare
LeBron
Travis Outlaw
Ndudi Ebi
Kendrick Perkins
James Lang (2)
Howard
Livingston
Robert Swift
Sebastian Telfair
Al Jefferson
Josh SMith
JR SMith
Dorell Wright
Martell Webster
Andrew Bynum
Gerald Green
CJ Miles (2)
Ricky Sanchez (2)
Monta Ellis (2)
Lou Williams (2)
Andray Blatche (2)
AMir Johnson (2)
Satnam Singh (2)
Thon Maker (2)
29 first rounders, including 4 HOFers (Garnett, Kobe, McGrady, LeBron), another 6 very good players (Dwight, Amare, Al Jefferson, Chandler, O'Neal, Al Harrington), and another 8 role players to back-end starters (Green, Bynum, SMith, Smith, Livingston, Perkins, Outlaw, Kwame).
So 10 were what you'd call "core" type of guys, top 3 on a contender but only 4 were lead. 18/29 had solid careers.
Not a bad hit rate, it's a pretty pidgin analysis (hard to even call it "analysis"), but I'd guess that's as good or better than regular draftees. Some pretty big busts though: Bender(5th), Miles(3d), Kwame(1), Curry (4, injury mitigation but he sucked anyway), Diop (8), Livingston (4, injury mitigation), Webster (6).
Guys worth their slot: Garnett (5), Kobe (13), O'Neal (17), McGrady (9), Harrington (25), Tyson (2), Amare (9), LeBron (1), Outlaw (23), Perkins (27), Howard (1), Jefferson (15), Josh SMith (17), JR SMith (18), Bynum (10), Green (18).
Overall I'd say HSers drafted have been worth their slot and my feeling is if you look at that relative to college draftees you'll find this as better.
From 1995 on, (2) means 2d rounder:
Garnett
Kobe
Jermaine O'Neal
McGrady
Al Harrington
Rashard Lewis (2)
Korleone Young (2)
Jonathan Bender
Leon Smith
Darius Miles
DeShawn Stevenson
Kwame
Tyson Chandler
Eddy Curry
DeSagana Diop
Ousmane Cisse (2)
Amare
LeBron
Travis Outlaw
Ndudi Ebi
Kendrick Perkins
James Lang (2)
Howard
Livingston
Robert Swift
Sebastian Telfair
Al Jefferson
Josh SMith
JR SMith
Dorell Wright
Martell Webster
Andrew Bynum
Gerald Green
CJ Miles (2)
Ricky Sanchez (2)
Monta Ellis (2)
Lou Williams (2)
Andray Blatche (2)
AMir Johnson (2)
Satnam Singh (2)
Thon Maker (2)
29 first rounders, including 4 HOFers (Garnett, Kobe, McGrady, LeBron), another 6 very good players (Dwight, Amare, Al Jefferson, Chandler, O'Neal, Al Harrington), and another 8 role players to back-end starters (Green, Bynum, SMith, Smith, Livingston, Perkins, Outlaw, Kwame).
So 10 were what you'd call "core" type of guys, top 3 on a contender but only 4 were lead. 18/29 had solid careers.
Not a bad hit rate, it's a pretty pidgin analysis (hard to even call it "analysis"), but I'd guess that's as good or better than regular draftees. Some pretty big busts though: Bender(5th), Miles(3d), Kwame(1), Curry (4, injury mitigation but he sucked anyway), Diop (8), Livingston (4, injury mitigation), Webster (6).
Guys worth their slot: Garnett (5), Kobe (13), O'Neal (17), McGrady (9), Harrington (25), Tyson (2), Amare (9), LeBron (1), Outlaw (23), Perkins (27), Howard (1), Jefferson (15), Josh SMith (17), JR SMith (18), Bynum (10), Green (18).
Overall I'd say HSers drafted have been worth their slot and my feeling is if you look at that relative to college draftees you'll find this as better.
Re: RE: Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
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Re: RE: Re: "Die, One-and-Done, Die!" - Adam Silver, 10/16/17
Chi wrote:I never understood why NBA fans want highschoolers in the league...
For every Lebron there were 10 or 20 Darius Miles...
Agreed. It's great news if there's a LeBron talent available, but otherwise the bust rate of draft picks will increase. A lot of these kids just aren't ready to play ball against grown men, and can't handle the off-court lifestyle either.