2018 Draft Thread Lucky #8 : pick 6 and 22

[holv03]

Hardly any of Trae’s 3’s were assisted. He didn’t really make the most of the college 3 as he’d bomb from beyond the line. And he shot in the high 80s from the line.

In terms of raw talent, he’s the best shooter since Curry came out. So that’s a pretty faulty reason to be worried about him.

Maybe, though you could say the same of Curry whom experienced more success still though strength of schedule may have been a factor in that too. I think the margins are so small with that type of player, but you may be right. I may be overreacting especially considering SOS.

Only 27% of Trae's 3's were assisted last year which is quite insane. Steph in the NBA is at 61% for his career and that's considered low.

The hope is with better teammates and better shot selection, Trae can get that % up which will in turn increase his overall 3pt%.

Young is an intriguing prospect due to his 3 point abilities and the way he gets open. He could very well end up being the next Curry but who knows. I still will like to have someone like Bamba or Porter. I hope we end up with a top 3 pick instead.

[Dan Z]

Hardly any of Trae’s 3’s were assisted. He didn’t really make the most of the college 3 as he’d bomb from beyond the line. And he shot in the high 80s from the line.

In terms of raw talent, he’s the best shooter since Curry came out. So that’s a pretty faulty reason to be worried about him.

Maybe, though you could say the same of Curry whom experienced more success still though strength of schedule may have been a factor in that too. I think the margins are so small with that type of player, but you may be right. I may be overreacting especially considering SOS.

Keep in mind that Young took more threes per game than Curry and during the later part of the season teams game planned for him (degree of difficulty). I'm not saying he'll be as good as Curry when it comes to shooting (that's an unrealistic expectation), but it's definitely one of his strengths coming into the league.

I say all that and I'm skeptical of him as a prospect.

[TheSuzerain]

I don't understand how MPJ gets ranked ahead of Trae by people.

Both project as strong scorers. Trae is far better as a passer/playmaker.

MPJ is better defensively, but it's not like it's a strength of his. On top of that, Trae arguably plays the less important position defensively.

And then you have MPJ's health concerns and minimal college tape as well.

I feel like Trae is giving you the same thing that MPJ is with potentially elite playmaking to boot.

[DanTown8587]

It’s not meaningless.

Looking at the typical results of pick 5-8 should give us a pretty good idea on the expected value of our pick.

That objective expected value is less than the expected value that most fans perceive for our pick.

Its meaningful only for the value of the historical perspective it presents. I.e., its value is limited to its own facts. It doesn't have any value to determining the quality of players in this particular draft. We are well beyond the historical values discussion. It no longer matters.

Wrong.

Humans always think they can predict the future with more accuracy than baseline expectations derived from prior data. They are usually wrong.

The previous 30 or so #6 picks in the lottery era cannot accurately predict the value of ONE #6 pick.

It would also to be weird to compare picks from different draft eras (i.e the HS era) to this one. And again, a review of the previous drafts only tells you the value that those picks had and does not have the predictive value that you want it to in a single instance.

You're always trying to outdraft the expected value of every pick, even #1 picks. And every draft is different in their own regard so not every #6 pick is a comparable prospect to the other guy who went #6 so it throws things off. Much like how Kevin Durant is not your typical #2 pick and Anthony Bennett not your typical #1 pick so they skew the data.

[E-DC]

Dan Z and TheSuzerain, the two of you are making me want to take a closer look at Trae Young now.

[TheSuzerain]

Its meaningful only for the value of the historical perspective it presents. I.e., its value is limited to its own facts. It doesn't have any value to determining the quality of players in this particular draft. We are well beyond the historical values discussion. It no longer matters.

Wrong.

Humans always think they can predict the future with more accuracy than baseline expectations derived from prior data. They are usually wrong.

The previous 30 or so #6 picks in the lottery era cannot accurately predict the value of ONE #6 pick.

You're always trying to outdraft the expected value of every pick, even #1 picks.

The key word here is "trying".

If you're predicting the value of our ONE #6 pick today. That is, before that #6 pick has had his career unfold with us, then the previous 30 or so #6 picks are a decent prediction in my eyes.

[holv03]

I don't understand how MPJ gets ranked ahead of Trae by people.

Both project as strong scorers. Trae is far better as a passer/playmaker.

MPJ is better defensively, but it's not like it's a strength of his. On top of that, Trae arguably plays the less important position defensively.

And then you have MPJ's health concerns and minimal college tape as well.

I feel like Trae is giving you the same thing that MPJ is with potentially elite playmaking to boot.

I think people who have concerns about Young is due to his defense, length and athleticism. I do believe he could improve as a defender since he works so hard plus having better teammates in the pro's could help him. I think he will be fine specially with the fact that he could create for himself and others.

[TheSuzerain]

I don't understand how MPJ gets ranked ahead of Trae by people.

Both project as strong scorers. Trae is far better as a passer/playmaker.

MPJ is better defensively, but it's not like it's a strength of his. On top of that, Trae arguably plays the less important position defensively.

And then you have MPJ's health concerns and minimal college tape as well.

I feel like Trae is giving you the same thing that MPJ is with potentially elite playmaking to boot.

I think people who have concerns about Young is due to his defense, length and athleticism. I do believe he could improve as a defender since he works so hard plus having better teammates in the pro's could help him. I think he will be fine specially with the fact that he could create for himself and others.

Doncic gives you a lot of what Young does without the severe defensive concerns. Which is why he should go first overall.

But if I look at the NBA playoffs right now, the starting PGs (when healthy) of the top 4 seeds in each conference are as follows:

Kyle Lowry
Kyrie Irving
George Hill
Steph Curry
CP3
Damian Lillard
Russell Westbrook
Darren Collison

In looking at that list, it doesn't seem like PG defense is of too much importance. Far more important is actually having a PG who can drive efficient offense for volume.

[DanTown8587]

Wrong.

Humans always think they can predict the future with more accuracy than baseline expectations derived from prior data. They are usually wrong.

The previous 30 or so #6 picks in the lottery era cannot accurately predict the value of ONE #6 pick.

You're always trying to outdraft the expected value of every pick, even #1 picks.

The key word here is "trying".

If you're predicting the value of our ONE #6 pick today. That is, before that #6 pick has had his career unfold with us, then the previous 30 or so #6 picks are a decent prediction in my eyes.

Trae Young might go top 10 in this draft. Since 2000, there have been 56 guards taken in the top 10. If we compare Young to the similarly sized players or smaller, here is that group

Chris Paul
Kemba Walker
DJ Augustin
Brandon Jennings
Randy Foye
TJ Ford
Trey Burke
Jimmer Ferdette
Dajuan Wagner
Johnny Flynn

So in that group, the third best player is a journeyman, the median player in terms of WS/48 is .058 WS/48 which is Randy Foye's career WS/48. Two of those players ever had a long run as a quality starter and more of those players were out of the league by the end of their rookie deal than starters.

But no, you go to tell me how previous picks predict future performance.