2018 Draft (Merged). New poll

[DuckIII]

we're probably also getting overly fixated on bridges being a possibility at #6 based on one comment from paxson very early in the draft process.

gonna mostly save any angst until there's more meaningful evidence to suggest it's a possibility

He’s discussed so frequently because he’s universally recognized as a potential top 6 draftee. Bridges is strongly in play anywhere from 5 through 9.

[DuckIII]

Reading this board, Twitter and Reddit, it would seem like MPJ is the obvious choice and a future stud whilst someone like Young his likely to bust.

It's an observation, and I don't know why the narrative among factions of the fan base have become so strong for MPJ. And that's not in comparison to Young, but even against someone like JJJ or Bamba.

Is it because he wore Bulls gear, people are that in on him?

There are a few really high on MPJ, and even I currently have him #6 on my board despite my criticisms. But there is a lot of critique of his game and ceiling going on in these threads. I don’t think it’s as pro-MPJ as you perceive.

As for why he’s largely preferred over Young it’s probably based on 4 things:

1. Hype residue. 7 months ago he was considered the #1 American prospect and a top 2 pick with franchise talent.

2. Physical profile.

3. Bulls gear stuff, which is nonsense but for some reason does have an impact.

4. To many of us, Young has major, major question marks and a very high bust probability rate. This is independent of MPJ.

[MGB8]

The more that I think about it - particularly given the fact that the Bulls are tanking to become a top team rather than building a treadmill team (not that I necessarily agree with that goal), the more I think preference should be:

1. Porter - the highest upside of guys who might be available - would only be available due to the injury. Has high level all-star potential due to combination of size and athleticism. Like Brandon Ingram, may take a little bit to get his game up to an NBA level, but looks to me like a better overall prospect than the former #2 overall pick.

2. Bamba - another potential all-star, but on the defensive side. Very similar draft profile to Nerlens Noel - including some character concerns, although Bamba seems fiercer. Then again, Tyrus Thomas was fierce, but that didn't make him a worker. Has potential to be a high level defensive player and seems to have more natural shooting ability than a Tyson Chandler or Jo Noah.

3A. Miles Bridges - has clear NBA talent - consistently looked like the best player on the floor on NCAA champ Villanova - but doesn't look like an NBA all-star candidate (though that can change, a la Jimmy Butler). Has more natural ball handling and shooting than Butler, coming in, though - but not the same explosion or aggression. Reminds me of a slightly smaller, but slightly faster, Otto Porter. High end glue guy - but not a superstar.

3B. S.G.A* - sleeper player that I am high on. Super high basketball IQ is evident when he plays. Very good, but not quite elite, athlete. Needs to work on his shot - but it's developing. But he honestly reminds of Manu the way he plays, and I think he has a lot of upside - though he'd likely supplant LaVine if drafted - creating tensions.

4A. Colin Sexton - a scorer with some upside as an overall point guard, and pretty close to an elite physical profile - a la Dennis Smith Jr. from last season. Obviously a PG pick would create some issues with Dunn.

4B. Trae Young - lacks Sexton's explosiveness and length, but higher natural basketball IQ and shooting ability... but is he limited in the NBA due to the athleticism / length issue - or does the success of smaller guys like Shane Larkin and Trey Burke in their 2nd runs with the NBA, and the current "soft" rules mean that he's actually an elite talent for the current game on the offensive end - to be hidden on the defensive end? Unlike Dunn (or Sexton), he's a guy you would probably be able to trust to run an NBA offense - including distribute to the right guy, at the right time - right away.

[CoreyVillains]

The Ringer article about Mikal Bridges:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

Thanks for posting that- it's a good read, and makes me have a more favorable impression towards Mikal, although I liked him already. But I think he would be a better pick than Bamba for sure, and most likely Young, as well.

Here was an interesting quote from that article:

"Shot creation is a zero-sum game: There’s only one ball. Shooting and perimeter defense are the only two skills without diminishing marginal returns. NBA teams can never have enough players who can do both."

The thing is, we also need shot creators. Unless Lavine becomes good enough in that category to be a #1 option, which I doubt. So we also could really use a Trae Young. But Bridges' two way usefulness really makes him pretty unique in this draft.

Agreed, shot creation (at least high level shot creation) is the rarified commodity.

From that article:

How valuable would Andre Roberson be with ball skills and an elite 3-point shot?

Valuable enough, and absolutely unable to lead a team to even a playoff appearance if he's the best player on a team.

If Andre Roberson was healthy all year and had a 3 ball to go along with his defense the Thunder would have probably have been fighting for the 2 seed with how inconsistent Golden State was this year. Roberson would have had a legit shot at defensive player of the year this year. His defense was so good that even though his offense is some of the worst the NBA has to offer, the Thunder were a significantly better team with him on the floor. According to a mid March article by 538, the Thunder defense was 12.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the floor. He was up there with Gobert and Draymond this year. If you gave me that level defender who could also shoot the crap out of the ball, I'd take that guy any day. Now that doesn't mean Mikal would definitely be my choice at 6, that depends on who is still on the board (I'd draft Porter over him). He is a legit guy to draft in that range though and there are legit basketball arguments why he should go before some perceived higher upside guys.

[MGB8]

Reading this board, Twitter and Reddit, it would seem like MPJ is the obvious choice and a future stud whilst someone like Young his likely to bust.

It's an observation, and I don't know why the narrative among factions of the fan base have become so strong for MPJ. And that's not in comparison to Young, but even against someone like JJJ or Bamba.

Is it because he wore Bulls gear, people are that in on him?

There are a few really high on MPJ, and even I currently have him #6 on my board despite my criticisms. But there is a lot of critique of his game and ceiling going on in these threads. I don’t think it’s as pro-MPJ as you perceive.

As for why he’s largely preferred over Young it’s probably based on 4 things:

1. Hype residue. 7 months ago he was considered the #1 American prospect and a top 2 pick with franchise talent.

2. Physical profile.

3. Bulls gear stuff, which is nonsense but for some reason does have an impact.

4. To many of us, Young has major, major question marks and a very high bust probability rate. This is independent of MPJ.

Physical profile. And it's not like physical profile doesn't matter - it's huge. The reality is that Porter is 6'9-6'10 with comparable athleticism (but not strength) to Ben Simmons, and while he doesn't have the natural passing ability of Simmons or bball IQ, his "wing skills" are (reportedly) more advanced - even though they didn't really show due to the injury shortened season.

In terms of physical profile, he's sort of a cross between Simmons and Brandon Ingram from 2 years ago - and Simmons is looking like a future top 5 NBA player while Ingram is looking solid after a bust-like rookie season. That's the hype on Porter - though you'd need to kick the tires and see if his shot (where the form still looks good) is consistent enough, and whether the work ethic is there (reportedly is).

Young, in contrast, is the point guard version of Denzel Valentine - amazing natural basketball IQ and skillset - but does it translate to the NBA given his somewhat limited athleticism and physical profile. I think it probably does - and actually wouldn't be surprised to see a team like Orlando (recovering from a failed "physical profile" pg pick) take a shot at him in the top 5.

[StunnerKO]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Sexton gets drafted before Trae

[Dresden]

Why can't Trae Young be a star, and to that point, is it not possible Porter Jr ends up similar to Beasley or Jabari i.e. a guy who isn't really a 3 or 4, doesn't have much defensive ability, and because of that, isn't a net positive player?

Listening to Bulls fans, it would seem the majority think Young has no chance of being great, whilst Porter is a hot chance at being a star.

Not that Schanowski is the go to draft expert, but he doesn't even get Young in his top 10. Meanwhile, Porter is a Bull.

Read on Twitter

I'm not a Young stan, and I hate that I almost have to defend the guy, but seems like the balance has shifted too far at this point.

It's very much within the realm of possibility that Porter can be a bust, or at least not a star, at the nba level. But I think when you look at the overall skills and athletic profile of Young v Porter, there's just more in Porter's favor. For one thing, a guy who is 6'10" and can shoot is a pretty safe bet to at least be someone who can stretch the floor, ala Lauri. And Porter appears to have a pretty complete package on offense in terms of scoring at mid range and inside.

On the other side of the ball, it's pretty well established Young is going to be a liability on defense. Maybe a huge one. Porter at least has the size and tools to be a good defender. From what I've seen of him in tapes, he doesn't look slow or incapable on that end. He's tall and he's a good athlete and from all accounts he's very coachable. He's not the head case Beasley is, and he's not plodding like Parker.

So just from their physical profiles, there's a much lower chance of Porter being a bust. Workouts will also tell a big story I think, on both players. How well do they both shoot? How do they perform in agility tests? What does their defensive potential look like? Hopefully some of those questions will get answered in workouts.

[BigUps]

Sign me up for MPJ at 6. I still don't see him getting to there though. Too much potential.

Yep. Barring his medicals coming back iffy, I don't even see MPJ as an option if we stick at 6. He's going to look good in workouts. And lets just say his medicals come back iffy, would you really take him at 6 knowing that? That would make him fall further than 6.

I just don't see him as an option come draft day right now.

[RememberLu]

Who knows who will rise or fall. The only player I know for sure will be out of reach is Ayton. Other than him I can see anyone else sliding down a bit. Even Bagley might slide down

[MrSparkle]

In the end, I trust GarPax to take the right guy at #6.

I’d be more worried at 9-10, cause they’d probably grab the best NCAA prospect available (Mikal), but they’re gonna do their homework and take the best available guy at 6. They’re gonna work out everybody besides Ayton (unless they land a top-3 pick). I have a strong feeling it’s Porter. The guy has a much richer skillset, and we’re looking long-term, not immediate impact (Mikal). I mean, the salary situation is scuffed until 2021 anyway. In that year, Mikal will be going on 27 with his first contract extension - that’s just stupid long-term planning for a total tank job: taking a 22 year old rookie (unless they are epically under the radar talented). Kyrie just turned 26- think how long he’s been in the league and how much experience he has, and he still has half his career ahead of him.

And if it’s top-3, no doubt they go Luka. Unless it’s #1, where I see them taking Ayton- like almost everybody else.

My 2c: take a high-ceiling 19 year old and don’t think twice. Unless Mikal demonstrates Durant pass and dribble skills in the scouting camps.

There are of course exceptions (Jimmy, Dray, Mitchell) of older NCAA prospects coming and whooping, but generally speaking, a really young prospect is just better for this team. I don’t mind the Bulls improving the next 2 years, but it simply can’t be for a mediocre 27-29 year old core in 2021. Needs to be a younger and more elite group of prospects.

[MGB8]

If the draft order doesn't change (unlikely), then the Bulls have a decent chance at MPJ (or Bridges) due to the team needs in front of them.

If I had to do a mock:

1. PHX - C Ayton

2. MEM - SG Doncic - could be Bagley, or Porter, too (though doubt it with their Parsons injury experience), but Memphis is kind of in a unique situation.

3. DAL - PF Bagley

4. ATL - PF JJJ

5. ORL - PG Young (Orlando needs a PG in the worst sort of way, and I think with the fail on a physical specimen in Payton, they go a different direction with the high bball IQ, sweet shooting Young)

6. CHI - SF Porter...

[bearadonisdna]

Hi guys, i made the archetype thread.
Overall it seemed to be one-sided but for sake of discussion i wanted to give a better description of the options .

For example:

Franchise player-Draymond Green

#1 option-Bradley beal, Cj McCullom

3 and D- Garry Harris

Defensive specialist-Gobert

In a way all these guys can help the Bulls. The poll didnt go 100% either way and i could totally see someone going the other direction of franchise player given team need and/or patience.

[aramada]

The Ringer article about Mikal Bridges:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

While reading this, I kept thinking about whether I'd rather have rookie Bridges or rookie Ricky Rubio, meaning a guy who checks ALL the boxes of an elite player at his position, except for one thing: iso/creation skills for Mikal, a jump shot for Rubio. Then this conclusion came:

Few players develop shot-creation skills in the NBA, but even fewer develop a 3-point shot or the athleticism to guard elite players.

Sounds like this guy has only one thing to materially develop once he has adjusted to the NBA (which is a challenge everyone faces). So it's going to be a matter of how much resources the Bulls staff is willing to allocate to making him better in that department, and that goes back to the role they are assigning for him once they select him at #6. Did Washington allocate enough resources to making Porter a primary offensive option, as he had flashed potential at Georgetown? I'm pretty sure the answer is no.
It also depends on how much he can improve, and that's probably the most important question. On that point, I find it encouraging that he has improved his game every year of his college career, being deemed a "6th man defensive specialist" as a freshman NCAA Champ.

What's Allen Iverson up to these days? I'm sure he can help. If not, Scottie could be our guy again.

[bpguimaraes23]

The Ringer article about Mikal Bridges:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

While reading this, I kept thinking about whether I'd rather have rookie Bridges or rookie Ricky Rubio, meaning a guy who checks ALL the boxes of an elite player at his position, except for one thing: iso/creation skills for Mikal, a jump shot for Rubio. Then this conclusion came:

Few players develop shot-creation skills in the NBA, but even fewer develop a 3-point shot or the athleticism to guard elite players.

Sounds like this guy has only one thing to materially develop once he has adjusted to the NBA (which is a challenge everyone faces). So it's going to be a matter of how much resources the Bulls staff is willing to allocate to making him better in that department, and that goes back to the role they are assigning for him once they select him at #6. Did Washington allocate enough resources to making Porter a primary offensive option, as he had flashed potential at Georgetown? I'm pretty sure the answer is no.
It also depends on how much he can improve, and that's probably the most important question. On that point, I find it encouraging that he has improved his game every year of his college career, being deemed a "6th man defensive specialist" as a freshman NCAA Champ.

What's Allen Iverson up to these days? I'm sure he can help. If not, Scottie could be our guy again.

I'm not sure I agree with the 3-point shot and athleticism part. Efficient shot-creation is, in my mind, the single most valuable skill to have and probably the hardest to develop.

This discussion reminds me of a thread where someone was trying to convince people that Jimmy was better than Harden because he is more of a all-around player. That is not how it works.

[aramada]

I'm not sure I agree with the 3-point shot and athleticism part. Efficient shot-creation is, in my mind, the single most valuable skill to have and probably the hardest to develop.

This discussion reminds me of a thread where someone was trying to convince people that Jimmy was better than Harden because he is more of a all-around player. That is not how it works.

I agree this is debatable, although I'm quite certain you can't teach athleticism.

I'd like to add that Bridges is at a position where a large % of the elite wings of today were, as demonstrated below (I realize that nbadraft.net is not consensus, but this is a place where you can easily find all that history):

Jimmy Butler:
Not a stand-out athlete ... Hasn't proven that he can consistently create offense for himself ... Not an isolation player, feeds off the play of his teammates ... Could really open up his game by adding range to his jump shot

Kawhi Leonard:
He does not have break down ability off the dribble and he is especially shaky handling the ball with his left hand … He does not have a great touch around the basket, and unless he can get inside position on the defense, he struggles finishing when contested … he lacks the polish and skill necessary to consistently operate on the wing …

Harrison Barnes – added him as an interesting case of a great 3&D player with GSW, who went on to become a 20ppg player for Dallas – and still developing. Bridges seems more aggressive:
Offensively Barnes' most glaring weakness surrounds his inability to create easy shots for himself ... His inability to create stems from his lack of an explosive first step ... Tends to rely on athleticism and shy away from contact on the interior … Generally inconsistent which is enigmatic considering his talents ... Needs to add bulk and become more aggressive ... He was a no-show in UNC's final 2 tournament games, which could leave a bad taste in a scouts mouths ...

Paul George – I am aware that he has the first step and was younger than MB:
George's biggest weakness is his inability to create for himself, and his poor shooting percentage when pulling up off the dribble ... Lacks a great handle which limits his overall game

James Harden - obviously NOT a good comp, but added this to underline his lack of quickness:
His leaping ability and quickness are only marginal, which forces him into tough and contested drives and makes it hard for him to get by people …

Kris Middleton:
Middleton also would be well-served to continue to work on his ball-handling some more, were he’s currently mediocre…He does sporadically make moves with the ball that show his potential, but he’s not consistent with it yet and he’s not a guy who operates all that effectively in pure isolation sets…Doesn’t handle double-teams or extra defensive attention all that well…Can struggle to finish around the rim at times due to a lack of explosiveness and strength...Could stand to get more aggressive and play with more urgency…

Victor Oladipo:
Has a difficult time creating offense off of the dribble, and this is an area that arguable may not improve a ton … Has never been counted on as a featured offensive threat, something that will more than likely be expected of him in his current draft range … Despite his attacking nature and great athleticism, only got to the line for 3.6 FTA … Forced into a high number of turnovers, particularly when trying to create in isolation

LeBron, Giannis, Simmons, Harden, Thompson, Hayward are out of this conversation, mainly because they had the handles at minimum, already.

[tunit213]

The Ringer article about Mikal Bridges:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

Thanks for posting that- it's a good read, and makes me have a more favorable impression towards Mikal, although I liked him already. But I think he would be a better pick than Bamba for sure, and most likely Young, as well.

Here was an interesting quote from that article:

"Shot creation is a zero-sum game: There’s only one ball. Shooting and perimeter defense are the only two skills without diminishing marginal returns. NBA teams can never have enough players who can do both."

The thing is, we also need shot creators. Unless Lavine becomes good enough in that category to be a #1 option, which I doubt. So we also could really use a Trae Young. But Bridges' two way usefulness really makes him pretty unique in this draft.

Agreed, shot creation (at least high level shot creation) is the rarified commodity.

From that article:

How valuable would Andre Roberson be with ball skills and an elite 3-point shot?

Valuable enough, and absolutely unable to lead a team to even a playoff appearance if he's the best player on a team.

The Ringer?! Who gave us an F for drafting Lauri lol

[Chi town]

I think MPJ will rise in workouts.

I could see JJJ being there at 6. Don’t think a GM will pick him before Ayton or Bagley due to his offense. MPJ will rise once his back checks out and the MAGic will draft Young as he’d be a great fit there.

If we can get JJJ at 6 then we need to move up w the Pels pick and Bobby to get Bridges or Zaire.

[bearadonisdna]

I think MPJ will rise in workouts.

I could see JJJ being there at 6. Don’t think a GM will pick him before Ayton or Bagley due to his offense. MPJ will rise once his back checks out and the MAGic will draft Young as he’d be a great fit there.

If we can get JJJ at 6 then we need to move up w the Pels pick and Bobby to get Bridges or Zaire.

Well as much as id love Orlando picking Trae, i cant bank on it because its rare cases that he is indeed the BPA available at 5.
Of course this is subjective.

[Hangtime84]

I think MPJ will rise in workouts.

I could see JJJ being there at 6. Don’t think a GM will pick him before Ayton or Bagley due to his offense. MPJ will rise once his back checks out and the MAGic will draft Young as he’d be a great fit there.

If we can get JJJ at 6 then we need to move up w the Pels pick and Bobby to get Bridges or Zaire.

MPJ will probably only work out for teams picking lower than chicago.

[Chi town]

I think MPJ will rise in workouts.

I could see JJJ being there at 6. Don’t think a GM will pick him before Ayton or Bagley due to his offense. MPJ will rise once his back checks out and the MAGic will draft Young as he’d be a great fit there.

If we can get JJJ at 6 then we need to move up w the Pels pick and Bobby to get Bridges or Zaire.

Well as much as id love Orlando picking Trae, i cant bank on it because its rare cases that he is indeed the BPA available at 5.
Of course this is subjective.

Young Fournier Ross Gordon Isaac. Trae fits perfect in ORL.