Mikal vs Porter

[DanTown8587]

Again, its based purely on the fingers-crossed hope that his upside as a potential #1 scorer is real hype.

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

[weneeda2guard]

injuries aside, mpj seems like a situation where if we pass on him and he blossoms to what he was projected to be on another franchise, we will forever be the dumb franchise that passed on him, especially when you consider he basically was campaining to be here.

its the same kyrie irving/ derrick williams situation cleveland was in. derrick williams was the better college player due to kyrie not playing much in college and his knee injury, but kyrie had the upside. im sure cleveland doesnt regret that decision.

porter has star potential. you got to take him if he there.

If Porter becomes a star, 6 teams will regret passing on him.

It's not even close to the Kyrie situation. Irving played 11 games in college and looked like an absolute monster. Granted, the injury was advantageous to Irving because we never got to see him play in conference or regress, but he still showed significantly more in college than Porter did.

I don't personally care what other teams pass on him, openly he appears to be campaigning to come here, that may effect how teams will approach taking him. And if he blossoms it will also be those teams losses as well.

Showing a sample size in college I'm sure is not a determining factor in a players ceiling being superstar or just good role player. It's why teams still have workouts etc before the draft even after the college seasons are over because it's about level of ability and how it translate to the nba. The point can't be determined by who showed more in that sample size for that reason, the point I'm making is both had small sample sizes but both kyrie and mpj showed star ceilings and injury clouded both of their college careers making taking them more risky , but in sure the sample size he showed in college played a part in his selection, but I'm willing to bet more of it was his star potential at the pg position. Leading a team to overlook that he may have injury issues. Which did manifest itself. Still got them a ring.

League is about the stars. I'm taking the guy who could potentially be the star. As I see it before he got injured he was locked in as a top 3 pick based on his potential, I take him for that reason if he drops and consider myself lucky.

[Kurt Heimlich]

MPJ was viewed as a future top 2 pick before the injury. The injury opens a "joel embiid" type risk/reward pick potentially. Albeit even more risky since we saw basically zero out of MPJ versus college talent.

Assuming his workouts and medical show well I'm rolling the dice with upside and taking MPJ all day. We need star level talent.

[Red8911]

Bridges seems like the kind of player bulls usually draft and the need at that position almost makes it a lock if he’s available. Bulls writers seem to believe the same. Most here think he will be a solid player but maybe not a star.His defense and shooting abilities though are very important with the type of game bulls like to play. Also the age seems to bother some but at 21 he’s still young and will be more ready for the NBA.

On Porter there’s A LOT of questions marks.Back injury,hasn’t really played in college and then there’s also the fact that he may play the same position as Lauri and Portis. This will all come down to the workouts,they will see if he’s really worth it or not and if he’s healthy. Drafting him will be a huge risk though, could end up being something special or can be a bust. Bulls can’t afford to draft a bust right now,this is probably the last time they will be drafting this high and after tanking all year long they really need this to work out with another good piece to the roster. Porter though made an appearance at the UC during a game so this probably means he has been in contact with the bulls,so maybe they do want him.

Hopefully they choose correctly for the teams sake,idc who they get just hope it’s not bust. If I was picking maybe would go with the safer player Bridges don’t really believe in signing the unknown but again the workouts will probably determine who they get,could be someone else too we don’t know.

[Red Larrivee]

Again, its based purely on the fingers-crossed hope that his upside as a potential #1 scorer is real hype.

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

"Top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production" is a really risky move.

I don't think some realize that there are a lot of things you can get away with in high school that you can't in college and especially in the NBA. You don't need to be a great scorer to average a ton of points in high school. You can get by on simply being bigger and more talented than your peers.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

There are videos like this out there for EVERYONE. You can't just simplify it to great at high school basketball = superstar upside in the NBA. It rarely works like that.

[fleet]

Spoiler:

Again, its based purely on the fingers-crossed hope that his upside as a potential #1 scorer is real hype.

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

"Top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production" is a really risky move.

I don't think some realize that there are a lot of things you can get away with in high school that you can't in college and especially in the NBA. You don't need to be a great scorer to average a ton of points in high school. You can get by on simply being bigger and more talented than your peers.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

There are videos like this out there for EVERYONE. You can't just simplify it to great at high school basketball = superstar upside in the NBA. It rarely works like that.

^^^^^some of these points remind me of the tanking discussion.

Strawman: Tankers think getting a top selection will automatically get them a great player.
Strawman: Those that favor drafting MPJ think that a great HS career always translates to the NBA

[Shill]

This assumes we have our foundational pieces.

I’m not convinced we do.

We probably don't, but that doesn't matter. Chicago drafted Luol Deng and Joakim Noah before Derrick Rose. Regardless of who they select, Chicago may still be in the draft lottery for the next 2-3 years. This position isn't an irrepeatable moment in the rebuild.

Disagree.

We shouldn’t be drafting for fit if we don’t have our foundational pieces. Deng and Noah were the best available players, and we didn’t really have anything etched in stone at the time.

If Porter projects to be a significantly better scorer and player than LaVine, then draft him.

I’m not saying he will be, but LaVine wouldn’t preclude me from taking Porter.

[dougthonus]

Porter has shown the ability to be a #1 scoring option everywhere he's been.

He wasn't an elite scorer in college for the 3 games he played. He shot 35% from 2 and 30% from 3. Not to say that's some massive sample size that we should take really seriously, but it's not true that he's been an elite scoring option everywhere he's gone.

Plus he's 6'10" and can score at all three levels, and is a good athlete. He averaged 36 ppg in high school. Yes, that's high school, but it's still better than anyone else in his class. Jayson Tatum only scored 27 in high school, for comparison.

I'm not sure what you mean by he can score at all 3 levels, I'd assume HS, College, and NBA, but he's only proven he can score in HS. I'm not sure what HS scoring averages mean really. I can't say I have followed them so closely as to know, except that the level of competition is extremely variant and probably makes it silly to compare.

He's been watched by pro scouts for several years now, and many have said that he's a unique scoring talent. You don't find that too often in a guy who is 6'10".

[/quote]

I agree that he's been scouted for a long time, and scouts had him as the 1st or 2nd best prospect in his draft class going into college. Lots of guys in that position don't translate to elite NBA players (probably more don't than do).

[League Circles]

Again, its based purely on the fingers-crossed hope that his upside as a potential #1 scorer is real hype.

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

Thanks very much for this breakdown. I didn't know how it worked but this makes a ton of sense regarding the lack of substance in high school player rankings.

[Dresden]

Spoiler:

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

"Top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production" is a really risky move.

I don't think some realize that there are a lot of things you can get away with in high school that you can't in college and especially in the NBA. You don't need to be a great scorer to average a ton of points in high school. You can get by on simply being bigger and more talented than your peers.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

There are videos like this out there for EVERYONE. You can't just simplify it to great at high school basketball = superstar upside in the NBA. It rarely works like that.

^^^^^some of these points remind me of the tanking discussion.

Strawman: Tankers think getting a top selection will automatically get them a great player.
Strawman: Those that favor drafting MPJ think that a great HS career always translates to the NBA

Exactly. And players that are great in college aren't always great in the nba either- Jay Williams, for instance. Corliss Williamson, for another. So I guess we should ignore what they do in college as well, by that logic.

[Dresden]

Porter has shown the ability to be a #1 scoring option everywhere he's been.

He wasn't an elite scorer in college for the 3 games he played. He shot 35% from 2 and 30% from 3. Not to say that's some massive sample size that we should take really seriously, but it's not true that he's been an elite scoring option everywhere he's gone.

Plus he's 6'10" and can score at all three levels, and is a good athlete. He averaged 36 ppg in high school. Yes, that's high school, but it's still better than anyone else in his class. Jayson Tatum only scored 27 in high school, for comparison.

I'm not sure what you mean by he can score at all 3 levels, I'd assume HS, College, and NBA, but he's only proven he can score in HS. I'm not sure what HS scoring averages mean really. I can't say I have followed them so closely as to know, except that the level of competition is extremely variant and probably makes it silly to compare.

He's been watched by pro scouts for several years now, and many have said that he's a unique scoring talent. You don't find that too often in a guy who is 6'10".

I agree that he's been scouted for a long time, and scouts had him as the 1st or 2nd best prospect in his draft class going into college. Lots of guys in that position don't translate to elite NBA players (probably more don't than do).[/quote]

Scoring at all three levels means from behind the arc, mid-range, and in the paint.

Are you really going to take those games he played in college seriously? He hadn't played in like 3 months in 2 of them, and in the first, I think he barely played a quarter before he got hurt.

[Red Larrivee]

^^^^^some of these points remind me of the tanking discussion.

Strawman: Tankers think getting a top selection will automatically get them a great player.
Strawman: Those that favor drafting MPJ think that a great HS career always translates to the NBA

I don't see a strawman at all.

If somebody didn't tell you that Michael Porter was arguably the #1 recruit in high school, would you believe it? Dantown is right that this conversation isn't happening if Porter was a 4-star recruit in the same situation. From all the videos, I haven't anything that made me think that Porter is an elite NBA prospect, as much as he was an elite high school prospect.

[fleet]

^^^^^some of these points remind me of the tanking discussion.

Strawman: Tankers think getting a top selection will automatically get them a great player.
Strawman: Those that favor drafting MPJ think that a great HS career always translates to the NBA

I don't see a strawman at all.

If somebody didn't tell you that Michael Porter was arguably the #1 recruit in high school, would you believe it? Dantown is right that this conversation isn't happening if Porter was a 4-star recruit in the same situation. From all the videos, I haven't anything that made me think that Porter is an elite NBA prospect, as much as he was an elite high school prospect.

I'm not convinced either. However I do see an elite NBA prospect. As much as anyone not in the top 3 or 4 at least. Health permitting, I see enough to believe there is enough there for the 6th pick over anyone else imo. I like the tape. It would have been enough to be in the top 3 out of HS, and players drafted out of HS in the first round tend to do rather well. We also don't need to he disabused of the notion that they all make it.

[tunit213]

35% want to settle for mediocrity

[tunit213]

When the season starts MPJ will be 20 and Mikal will be 22. I bet when MPJ is 22 he will be a much better player than Mikal is now.

[SHO'NUFF]

Porter. It’s a risk I could live with. It’s the type of move that even if it doesn’t work out....you can’t be mad at GarPax.

[PrimzyBulls81]

35% want to settle for mediocrity

LOL.. overboard a bit??
Mikal Bridges will be great NBA player,maybe not with Bulls.. but he is still undervalued here

[tunit213]

35% want to settle for mediocrity

LOL.. overboard a bit??
Mikal Bridges will be great NBA player,maybe not with Bulls.. but he is still undervalued here

He's the definition of a role player, 4th option type. Those players aren't super hard to find.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Again, its based purely on the fingers-crossed hope that his upside as a potential #1 scorer is real hype.

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

Thanks very much for this breakdown. I didn't know how it worked but this makes a ton of sense regarding the lack of substance in high school player rankings.

These guys doing the rankings are actually pretty good at what they do. Go check the offer lists for the top ranked recruits. Then see that 20% of those consensus top 5 recruits are ‘superstars’ - that’s s damn good hit rate considering the NBA draft bust rate.

As for young recruits maintaining their ranking - that’s as much a product of basketball being a sport where evaluations are available and for the most part accurate for younger and younger kids.

These players are pretty much playing basketball year round and playing on traveling teams. The best of the best are identified pretty early by both scouts and coaches.


The fact is that MPJ had offers from every major program in the country because he had the traits/skills that the coaches and scouting services look for in a HS prospect. The problem is that no one has any idea if those traits/skills will translate to a higher level because of a lost college season.

This was a lot of words to basically just say that there is some legitimacy to being a top high school prospect and that it goes deeper that just being a talented 12 year old so they keep them at the top of the rankings. But that ranking will have zero factor is where he gets drafted or what NBA GMs/scouts think of him.

[DanTown8587]

Here's how the hype goes: Porter gets named early in his career to be on the top of the recruiting list because he was probably really good at some AAU tournaments at 13. He puts up big numbers (because again, who doesn't if you're even close to a D1 guy) in Missouri in level 3 of 5, wins a state championship, gets named to the USA Today 3rd team All-America as a junior (fun fact: Jayson Tatum that year was Mr. Basketball in Missouri and first team) and then transfers to Seattle as a Senior where his coach is Brandon Roy. He goes undefeated there too and so the hype is how good this guy is. He wins the "MVP" of the McDonalds All-America game with the least impressive 17-6 I've literally ever seen. He is constantly ranked in the top going back to his freshman year but so was Ayton, Wendell Carter, etc.

These lists and rankings rarely have major changes past say sophomore year and they start getting ranked by Rivals (Soph top 75) and ESPN (top junior 60) and then these lists become self-selecting of the accolades/tournaments/etc. Unless you have a massive rise in your height that changes the perception of you (think Anthony Davis), these lists are basically done by a bunch of guys when they're 15 and then they really don't move. Think how Michael Gilchrist had a top five ranking even though he was an atrocious shooter and then some team in the draft says "but he was so highly rated in HS, started on the Kentucky team that won so he'll get better" and he never did even though Gilchrist definitely put in the time and the coaching.

If Porter Jr was even ranked fifth instead of 1/2, we're probably not having this discussion and for some reason, people take the ranking of being "#1" in the class as anything, especially when guys have the same grades so it's basically given to the guy who's been there the longest.

Here are the guys who were top 5 on every recruiting list in the 1&done era (top 5 at every major recruiting list)

2015 - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere
2014 - Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahill Oakafor
2013 - Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison (note Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon were mostly chosen over Harrison but Harrison alas was always top five where as those guys were 6 on one list each)
2012 - Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Mohammed, Isiah Austin, Kyle Anderson
2011 - Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers (someone had him over Davis), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2010 - Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger
2009 - Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins
2008 - Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday
2007 - OJ Mayo (every group but one had him higher than Rose; three had him #1 overall), Eric Gordon
2006 - Greg Oden (unanimous #1), Kevin Durant (unanimous #2)

25 drafted players on that list
5 were franchise guys (Durant, Cousins, Iriving, Davis, Simmons) and three of them went #1, Durant went #2 only behind Oden, and Cousins went 5 due to character over talent

I don't see who Porter is supposed to compare to as the "fallen HS star who produces". There is a vast difference between "top HS recruit who earns spot at top of draft in college" versus "top HS star who gets drafted high more so on HS ranking than college production".

Thanks very much for this breakdown. I didn't know how it worked but this makes a ton of sense regarding the lack of substance in high school player rankings.

These guys doing the rankings are actually pretty good at what they do. Go check the offer lists for the top ranked recruits. Then see that 20% of those consensus top 5 recruits are ‘superstars’ - that’s s damn good hit rate considering the NBA draft bust rate.

As for young recruits maintaining their ranking - that’s as much a product of basketball being a sport where evaluations are available and for the most part accurate for younger and younger kids.

These players are pretty much playing basketball year round and playing on traveling teams. The best of the best are identified pretty early by both scouts and coaches.


The fact is that MPJ had offers from every major program in the country because he had the traits/skills that the coaches and scouting services look for in a HS prospect. The problem is that no one has any idea if those traits/skills will translate to a higher level because of a lost college season.

This was a lot of words to basically just say that there is some legitimacy to being a top high school prospect and that it goes deeper that just being a talented 12 year old so they keep them at the top of the rankings. But that ranking will have zero factor is where he gets drafted or what NBA GMs/scouts think of him.

They’re not awful but they get a ton of **** wrong year in and year out. The point people are making about Porter is you have to take him because he’s a former #1 recruit and that ranking doesn’t really have a ton of value.