How many wins this year?

chefo · Post #61 » by **chefo** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 3:05 pm

The Bulls last year were better than their record. Pax stacked the odds against them by fielding entire G-league units as major rotational pieces; you have to have the Dubs starting unit to make up for that level of bad from your bench. This year, the Bulls actually figure to have actual NBA talent on the bench, with fewer traffic cones on D (Bobby and Jabari are gone).

I've mentioned before that the Bulls' opponents spent all of last year cheating on D and only guarded Lauri and Zach and nobody else. Except, post the Otto trade, that left Rolo and Otto with a lot of freedom and they took advantage of it.

This year, maybe you can cheat off WCJ, like last year. But, you can't cheat off Otto. You can't cheat off Sato. The bench will be Dunn/White, Young and Val/Hutch. No more G-league 3rd teamers playing 20+ minutes a night... hopefully.

I'm all in the health camp for outcome. If the Bulls major pieces all play 75+ games, they'll probably win 40+ games easily. Maybe as high as high 40s... I'm with coldfish here. I think the Bulls finally have enough critical mass of NBA talent to make a Bucks-like jump in winning percentage.

If, on the other hand, they're stuck in the infirmary again all year--it'll be impossible to tell how many games they'll win.

panthermark · Post #62 » by **panthermark** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 3:09 pm

DuckIII wrote:
panthermark wrote:
coldfish wrote:30 to 47.

I can make a case for this team being legitimately good at this point. If that February stretch where the offense was awesome is repeatable, there are a lot of good things going on here. The bench was awful last year and it may become a strength this year. The locker room will be much improved. They are bringing in people willing to hustle and play defense. I am looking forward to who gets that room exception.

Of course, it could all fall apart again too.

In general, the NBA may have zero super teams. Its going to turn into a war of attrition where everyone other than a handful of bad teams has a chance every night. If Kawhi goes to the West, virtually all of the top teams in the East will be worse this year so it will be wide open.

30-47? That is a mighty large range don't you think? So somewhere between bad and good?

We are still not done yet, but I'm leaning towards the mid-high 30's now. Will wait to see who else we grab.

It’s hard to disagree with the fish. 3 of our 5 most important players are in their rookie deals. 2 of those 3 have had health issues. Our primary scorer is still developing. And our coach might know what he’s doing or he might be a moron.

I'm not disagreeing, I'm just ribbing him because that is an 18 game spread in a prediction thread. That is a lot of cushion!
30 wins would have been the 6th worth record in the NBA last year. 47 wins would have been the 6th seed in the East. I do agree....we are somewhere between those two points. 8-)

AKfanatic · Post #63 » by **AKfanatic** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 3:11 pm

AKfanatic wrote:I really like what the Bulls did this offseason. They seem to be adding pieces that all “play the right way”. It’s similar to the way Pax went about business when taking over. While he didn’t add what looks to be top end talent, he’s added what looks to be guys that will bring it consistently. When you can’t get stars, you add guys that will allow you solid depth.

I don’t expect the playoff next season, but around 35-40 wins, another decent draft spot, and another solid free agent piece next offseason puts the Bulls in the playoffs and gives them the assets to pounce if the right player becomes available in trade.

On a plus, the Bulls have guys on the roster that have yet to hit their ceiling. Between Carter, Lauri, Zach, and Coby, the Bulls have guys that could realistically reach an all-star level. If two of those guys get there, with an improved bench, the Bulls could sneak into the playoffs.... though I still think we’re a season away from that stage.

Said it earlier, but this offseason really screams of Pax taking back the reigns. Every move, from the draft to free agency, is much more reminiscent of the early Pax years.

35 -40 with an outside chance to jump up to 45ish with growth from guys like Zach, Lauri, and Wendell.

Low end, injuries derail everything, 25

Am2626 · Post #64 » by **Am2626** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:43 pm

chefo wrote:The Bulls last year were better than their record. Pax stacked the odds against them by fielding entire G-league units as major rotational pieces; you have to have the Dubs starting unit to make up for that level of bad from your bench. This year, the Bulls actually figure to have actual NBA talent on the bench, with fewer traffic cones on D (Bobby and Jabari are gone).

I've mentioned before that the Bulls' opponents spent all of last year cheating on D and only guarded Lauri and Zach and nobody else. Except, post the Otto trade, that left Rolo and Otto with a lot of freedom and they took advantage of it.

This year, maybe you can cheat off WCJ, like last year. But, you can't cheat off Otto. You can't cheat off Sato. The bench will be Dunn/White, Young and Val/Hutch. No more G-league 3rd teamers playing 20+ minutes a night... hopefully.

I'm all in the health camp for outcome. If the Bulls major pieces all play 75+ games, they'll probably win 40+ games easily. Maybe as high as high 40s... I'm with coldfish here. I think the Bulls finally have enough critical mass of NBA talent to make a Bucks-like jump in winning percentage.

If, on the other hand, they're stuck in the infirmary again all year--it'll be impossible to tell how many games they'll win.

If this ends up being an injury plagued season again that’s a major red flag. I can understand having to deal with a lot of injuries in a season or two but if this is a recurring thing that could be a much bigger problem. Either the team has injury prone players, the training staff is bad, or the coach is not managing his team properly. It’s not normal to deal with major injuries every year.

TheHrvReport · Post #65 » by **TheHrvReport** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:49 pm

35-40, or 10th to an 8th seed. Would be a step in the right direction but still would be a bit disappointing IMO. Hopefully Zach/Lauri make a bigger than expected leap and we win more than that. I'd cap them at 43 wins for next year, with the worst case scenario being somewhere around 28 wins.

JohnnyKILLroy · Post #66 » by **JohnnyKILLroy** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:52 pm

50-55

sco · Post #67 » by **sco** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:53 pm

Beans wrote:What level will we be at this year:
A) PLAYOFFS (>41wins)
B) 500 (41 wins)
C) NEAR 500 (35 wins)
D) IMPROVE HALFWAY TO 500 (30 wins)
E) SMALL IMPROV (25 wins)
F) STAY ON BOTTOM, SAME AS LY (20 wins)

this would be better as a poll.

I'm squarely at A.

pipfan · Post #68 » by **pipfan** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:54 pm

I have us as the surprise team of the East

Sato/White/Archi
Lavine/Val/White
Porter/Hutch/Val
Lauri/Thad/Porter
Carter/Lauri/Gafford

sign me up

Threekola · Post #69 » by **Threekola** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:54 pm

36. I’d say 44 on talent alone, but with this coach and our guys injury history, I’ve got to see it to believe it.

Shill · Post #70 » by **Shill** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 7:57 pm

MetalFingaz · Post #71 » by **MetalFingaz** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:02 pm

I hope we keep the multiple ballhandlers approach, with Zach and Otto being our first and second initiators (unless Coby plays beyond early expectations). If Zach plays like an all-star and Lauri and Otto are close to that, we could get as high as 5 or 6, assuming the East as a whole stays pretty healthy.

nomorezorro · Post #72 » by **nomorezorro** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:08 pm

i don't think you can assume a .500+ level, even if it's not out of the realm of possibility. ~37 wins would still be a huge step forward

panthermark · Post #73 » by **panthermark** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:12 pm

JohnnyKILLroy wrote:50-55

Really?

JohnnyKILLroy · Post #74 » by **JohnnyKILLroy** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:14 pm

panthermark wrote:
JohnnyKILLroy wrote:50-55

Really?

Yes - all day err day.

I think only injuries could hold us back.

Fl_Flash · Post #75 » by **Fl_Flash** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:15 pm

35 - 42.

This team was better than its' record. For most of the season we trotted out Felicio, Blakeney, Harrison, Arch, Seldon, Lemon, Sampson1 and Sampson2. You're not winning much with players of this caliber getting 20 - 30+ mins a night.

Replace those names with White, Valentine, Hutchinson, Satoransky, Young and Gafford (throw Carter in there too as he was gone half the season) and you can't help but have a least some faith that they'll win a few more games simply because two-thirds of our roster isn't g-leaguers anymore.

With good health, I think this is a boarderline playoff team. With more injuries, they'll miss the playoffs, but won't be abysmal. Not a lot of margin for error but I think that this team will at least be competitive finally.

I'd like to watch more than 8 or 10 games of my hometown team again. These last couple of years I just haven't cared. I can watch losing, but poor effort and bad basketball to go along with the losing - ain't nobody got time for dat.

madvillian · Post #76 » by **madvillian** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:16 pm

nomorezorro wrote:i don't think you can assume a .500+ level, even if it's not out of the realm of possibility. ~37 wins would still be a huge step forward

I'm hoping for 40-44 but I'm expecting 36-40. Our guys have to prove they can stay health, among other things. We tend to assume perfect health in our projections but with this club that's an especially risky assumption.

panthermark · Post #77 » by **panthermark** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:16 pm

JohnnyKILLroy wrote:
panthermark wrote:
JohnnyKILLroy wrote:50-55

Really?

Yes - all day err day.

I think only injuries could hold us back.

OK....good!
Your optimism counters my pessimism. This board needs that!

:peace:

Post #78 » by **coldfish** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:18 pm

This whole question has to almost be divided into "if healthy" and not. The Bulls have a lot of fragile players and if a number of them miss a lot of time, the floor is pretty low.

The Bulls basically were never healthy last year. Not once. By the time they got Otto, Wendell was gone. As a result, projecting a fully healthy lineup is purely subjective. There is no data on it.

Beyond that, the team has an absolutely horrible bench. Even when the starters did OK, the bench would ruin things. I expect the bench to be significantly better this year.

The team next year is a wild ass guess. So many variables that its hard to predict. There is nothing that you can take from last year and project forward.

bpguimaraes23 · Post #79 » by **bpguimaraes23** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:45 pm

I could see this team winning 40+ games, if the coach wasn't the joke of the league. I just can't trust a team coached by a Monty Python character.

bpguimaraes23 · Post #80 » by **bpguimaraes23** » Mon Jul 1, 2019 8:47 pm

coldfish wrote:This whole question has to almost be divided into "if healthy" and not. The Bulls have a lot of fragile players and if a number of them miss a lot of time, the floor is pretty low.

The Bulls basically were never healthy last year. Not once. By the time they got Otto, Wendell was gone. As a result, projecting a fully healthy lineup is purely subjective. There is no data on it.

Beyond that, the team has an absolutely horrible bench. Even when the starters did OK, the bench would ruin things. I expect the bench to be significantly better this year.

The team next year is a wild ass guess. So many variables that its hard to predict. There is nothing that you can take from last year and project forward.

The team is still thin at the wings, witch is very problematic.