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2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#101 » by MeloRoseNoah » Sun May 19, 2019 7:19 am

GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#102 » by GimmeDat » Sun May 19, 2019 9:25 am

MeloRoseNoah wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.


I absolutely agree. There's a lot to like with Hunter. What I like in particular is the idea of having multiple high level defenders who are smart, team defenders, would make us an incredibly tough team to play against. Also would be very encouraging to have another legitimate outside shooting threat (Hunter's not a high volume 3 ball guy but he is super efficient).. spacing is shaping up nicely for us.

On the flip-side, I think we need more perimeter talent and skill-set that goes with that (more shot-making, play-making), and I'm a bit worried about the surplus of guys that would be best suited to PF.

WCJ should play starting level minutes at C, and Markkanen needs to slide up and play the 5 when he's not on for a good portion of those minutes he's off. Then at PF, you have all Markkanen's primary minutes, plus a big part of OPJ's appeal is the fact that he can slide up and be super effective at the 4 (arguably better there than at the 3). Where does that leave a Hunter/Doumbouya type 3/4 who is probably best suited at PF? Both guys are definitely best at PF long term.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#103 » by qianlong » Sun May 19, 2019 9:25 am

MeloRoseNoah wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.

hunter realistic ceiling is otto porter.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#104 » by Showtime23 » Sun May 19, 2019 10:07 am

MeloRoseNoah wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.


Think he will end up being rich man's Mikal Bridges. Production will be similar to Deng with elite shooting close to Porter's but worse slashing ability. 3rd/4th option on a championship contending team is very valuable.
That 7'2" wingspan tho is tantalizing. If he somehow tightens his handles, PG13 is his absolute ceiling.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#105 » by GimmeDat » Sun May 19, 2019 10:33 am

Showtime23 wrote:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.


Think he will end up being rich man's Mikal Bridges. Production will be similar to Deng with elite shooting close to Porter's but worse slashing ability. 3rd/4th option on a championship contending team is very valuable.
That 7'2" wingspan tho is tantalizing. If he somehow tightens his handles, PG13 is his absolute ceiling.


One thing I'd point out about the Mikal comparison is that while they both shot 40%+ from 3, Mikal took 7 attempts per 40, Hunter 3, and while Mikal shot 85% from the line, Deandre shot 78%. I have no doubt that Hunter is a good shooter, but he's far from prolific or providing the same spacing impact as a Mikal. Also Mikal's STL/BLK rates were almost double Hunter's, so he's a bit more disruptive on the defensive end (Hunter's still excellent).

As for the on-ball creation stuff, I think that will largely be reduced in the NBA. He has a bit of a mid-post game, but I think that'll largely be saved for exploiting clear mismatches, and other than the occasional pull-up off a strong closeout, I think he's more or less going to be a 3/D guy at the next level. I don't think it's likely he's going to be a 15+ppg guy.

But there's no doubt he's a 'winner' and a guy that will look great in on/off stats. Plays the game the right way, extremely smart on both ends of the floor, an elite and super versatile defender, and will knock down open shots.

But here's something worth considering that goes against that - Hunter's team played at one of the slowest paces in college basketball and he still scored 19pp/40. But you know, sometimes older college players put up big numbers that don't necessarily translate, and Hunter is older than most people realize because he redshirted - he'll be 22 in December. So that's why I'm hesitant, because I think the actual skill-set is a little cerebral offensively.

Another positive take on Hunter (via Duke4Life) -
Barrett:
38% of shots at the rim
64% FG% at the rim
36% of shots at the rim were assisted on
.319 FT rate

Hunter:
35% of shots at the rim
68% FG% at the rim
33% of shots at the rim were assisted on
.398 FT rate

Its weird how one guy is known for being able to get his, while the other is known as a guy that cant create off the dribble. Its pretty crazy how powerful narratives can be. This also doesn't take into effect things like

3pt%:
RJ: 30%
Hunter: 43%

FT%:
RJ: 66%
Hunter 78%

Wingspan:
RJ: 6'10"
Hunter: 7'2"
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#106 » by GimmeDat » Sun May 19, 2019 10:58 am

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#107 » by othawhitemeat » Sun May 19, 2019 11:00 am

I will take any of Culver, Hunter, Voby, or Garland. Not a fan of Barrett or Reddish at all.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#108 » by othawhitemeat » Sun May 19, 2019 11:03 am

GimmeDat wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19&fbclid=IwAR1lXQpN0etNBEl2TXNCPzuTRPZgkj94clktAkPHfe-OeRaHHWGlmCab6Jo
GimmeDat wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19&fbclid=IwAR1lXQpN0etNBEl2TXNCPzuTRPZgkj94clktAkPHfe-OeRaHHWGlmCab6Jo

Style wise, looks like Luol Deng. Curious to see why his numbers are low against others.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#109 » by coldfish » Sun May 19, 2019 11:53 am

GimmeDat wrote:
Spoiler:
Showtime23 wrote:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:
A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.


Think he will end up being rich man's Mikal Bridges. Production will be similar to Deng with elite shooting close to Porter's but worse slashing ability. 3rd/4th option on a championship contending team is very valuable.
That 7'2" wingspan tho is tantalizing. If he somehow tightens his handles, PG13 is his absolute ceiling.


One thing I'd point out about the Mikal comparison is that while they both shot 40%+ from 3, Mikal took 7 attempts per 40, Hunter 3, and while Mikal shot 85% from the line, Deandre shot 78%. I have no doubt that Hunter is a good shooter, but he's far from prolific or providing the same spacing impact as a Mikal. Also Mikal's STL/BLK rates were almost double Hunter's, so he's a bit more disruptive on the defensive end (Hunter's still excellent).

As for the on-ball creation stuff, I think that will largely be reduced in the NBA. He has a bit of a mid-post game, but I think that'll largely be saved for exploiting clear mismatches, and other than the occasional pull-up off a strong closeout, I think he's more or less going to be a 3/D guy at the next level. I don't think it's likely he's going to be a 15+ppg guy.

But there's no doubt he's a 'winner' and a guy that will look great in on/off stats. Plays the game the right way, extremely smart on both ends of the floor, an elite and super versatile defender, and will knock down open shots.

But here's something worth considering that goes against that - Hunter's team played at one of the slowest paces in college basketball and he still scored 19pp/40. But you know, sometimes older college players put up big numbers that don't necessarily translate, and Hunter is older than most people realize because he redshirted - he'll be 22 in December. So that's why I'm hesitant, because I think the actual skill-set is a little cerebral offensively.

Another positive take on Hunter (via Duke4Life) -
Barrett:
38% of shots at the rim
64% FG% at the rim
36% of shots at the rim were assisted on
.319 FT rate

Hunter:
35% of shots at the rim
68% FG% at the rim
33% of shots at the rim were assisted on
.398 FT rate

Its weird how one guy is known for being able to get his, while the other is known as a guy that cant create off the dribble. Its pretty crazy how powerful narratives can be. This also doesn't take into effect things like

3pt%:
RJ: 30%
Hunter: 43%

FT%:
RJ: 66%
Hunter 78%

Wingspan:
RJ: 6'10"
Hunter: 7'2"

The RJ Barrett hype train is one I never understood. He isn't super athletic, ultra big, skilled, etc. He is an aggressive ball hog. If he ends up going 3rd or something it will show just how powerful reputation is in drafting.

If you didn't tell me anything about the players involved and I just watched tape on them, I would have Barrett around #10. Reddish would be in the 20's. I would probably take a flyer on an international before taking Barrett.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#110 » by coldfish » Sun May 19, 2019 11:58 am

fleet wrote:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:
AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:
Filthy.


Now that’s a Paul George sleeper there, not some Reddish bum who sucks at college basketball.

He seems like an efficient guy. But he wasn't as good his freshman year. And, put Zion and RJ in the lineup with Hunter, and see what would have happened to his game that year. Or this year for that matter. I'm not advocating for Reddish necessarily. But Reddish was definately in a tough position to shine at Duke right away. And his potential on D is there.


The thing about Reddish is that he had an extended period where Zion was out and he got a bigger workload. He got worse. I can't find the stats right now but I recall it as ugly.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#111 » by AshyLarrysDiaper » Sun May 19, 2019 1:42 pm

GimmeDat wrote:
Read on Twitter
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He looks way more fluid than I was expecting. Probably more of a modern 4, but no less a 3 than Hunter or even Otto.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#112 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 1:43 pm

fleet wrote:He seems like an efficient guy. But he wasn't as good his freshman year. And, put Zion and RJ in the lineup with Hunter, and see what would have happened to his game that year. Or this year for that matter. I'm not advocating for Reddish necessarily. But Reddish was definately in a tough position to shine at Duke right away. And his potential on D is there.


Hunter would've been a better fit for Duke than Reddish and Reddish would've been a worse fit for Virginia than Hunter. Duke needed Reddish to make a high volume of spot-up jumpers. Unfortunately, he was really bad at it:

Reddish: 193 spot-up possessions. Success Rate: 33rd Percentile
Hunter: 158 spot-up possessions. Success Rate: 76th Percentile

Also, Cam's shooting percentages in the six games Zion didn't play: 35% FG, 31% three
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#113 » by Bluewaterheaven » Sun May 19, 2019 1:44 pm

Can Hunter be a SG?
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#114 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 1:55 pm

For all the anti-Reddish folks out there: how do you square your opinions against the media and the NBA's opinion.

Everyone but the Stepien has Reddish ranked 7th or 8th on their big board, and Reddish has received word either that his range is 3-7 or 3-10 (conflicting reports). Either way, do you think the draft analysts and NBA offices don't see that Reddish struggled this year?

The near unanimity in the media and nba vs fan community screams bias in one way or the other.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#115 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 2:00 pm

GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


His efficiency across the board in different play types suggests a player that's improving and has sneaky good offensive upside.

Image

At the very least, you're getting a player whose usage and role can easily be projected to the next level. You can see Hunter doing the same things at Virginia in the NBA: Value on both sides of the ball, knock-down three-point shooting, movement without the basketball, multiple efforts on defense, high basketball IQ. If there's a homerun swing in this, it's hoping that he becomes a premier 3/D player who can switch on nearly everything.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#116 » by coldfish » Sun May 19, 2019 2:03 pm

cjbulls wrote:For all the anti-Reddish folks out there: how do you square your opinions against the media and the NBA's opinion.

Everyone but the Stepien has Reddish ranked 7th or 8th on their big board, and Reddish has received word either that his range is 3-7 or 3-10 (conflicting reports). Either way, do you think the draft analysts and NBA offices don't see that Reddish struggled this year?

The near unanimity in the media and nba vs fan community screams bias in one way or the other.


GM's are ridiculously conservative. Its not so much about missing on a pick. They are afraid of missing on a pick because they took a chance. Paxson still gets pilloried for Tyrus. If he had taken the safer pick and missed, he would have gotten a lot less grief. Cam is a safe pick due to his reputation.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#117 » by League Circles » Sun May 19, 2019 2:12 pm

AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
Read on Twitter
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He looks way more fluid than I was expecting. Probably more of a modern 4, but no less a 3 than Hunter or even Otto.

I just got interested in this guy. Definitely on my mind at 7 along with Jaxson Hayes amd Little plus the usual suspects.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#118 » by TheFinishSniper » Sun May 19, 2019 2:18 pm

If Cam Reddish has better career than Tony Snell, Ill leave this board. That much I think Cam sucks.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#119 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 2:26 pm

coldfish wrote:
cjbulls wrote:For all the anti-Reddish folks out there: how do you square your opinions against the media and the NBA's opinion.

Everyone but the Stepien has Reddish ranked 7th or 8th on their big board, and Reddish has received word either that his range is 3-7 or 3-10 (conflicting reports). Either way, do you think the draft analysts and NBA offices don't see that Reddish struggled this year?

The near unanimity in the media and nba vs fan community screams bias in one way or the other.


GM's are ridiculously conservative. Its not so much about missing on a pick. They are afraid of missing on a pick because they took a chance. Paxson still gets pilloried for Tyrus. If he had taken the safer pick and missed, he would have gotten a lot less grief. Cam is a safe pick due to his reputation.


The opposite is true. If Reddish misses, everyone will say "You saw his numbers at Duke, how could you think he'd be better in the NBA." He is not a safe pick

And I didn't mention just GMs either, the media all have him ranked 7th or 8 on big boards (ESPN, Ringer, Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated).
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#120 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 2:27 pm

GimmeDat wrote:I absolutely agree. There's a lot to like with Hunter. What I like in particular is the idea of having multiple high level defenders who are smart, team defenders, would make us an incredibly tough team to play against. Also would be very encouraging to have another legitimate outside shooting threat (Hunter's not a high volume 3 ball guy but he is super efficient).. spacing is shaping up nicely for us.

On the flip-side, I think we need more perimeter talent and skill-set that goes with that (more shot-making, play-making), and I'm a bit worried about the surplus of guys that would be best suited to PF.

WCJ should play starting level minutes at C, and Markkanen needs to slide up and play the 5 when he's not on for a good portion of those minutes he's off. Then at PF, you have all Markkanen's primary minutes, plus a big part of OPJ's appeal is the fact that he can slide up and be super effective at the 4 (arguably better there than at the 3). Where does that leave a Hunter/Doumbouya type 3/4 who is probably best suited at PF? Both guys are definitely best at PF long term.


This is a great problem to have. Bring him off the bench as a small 4, keep Wendell at the 5 or slide Lauri to the 5. It also gives this team a lot of deep wing defenders in Porter, Hunter and Hutchison.

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