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2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#121 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 2:34 pm

cjbulls wrote:The opposite is true. If Reddish misses, everyone will say "You saw his numbers at Duke, how could you think he'd be better in the NBA." He is not a safe pick

And I didn't mention just GMs either, the media all have him ranked 7th or 8 on big boards (ESPN, Ringer, Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated).


Coldfish is right that early reputation creates quick and lasting narratives. Jonathan Givony talked about this last year, saying that elite ecruits, regardless if they perform poorly in college, set themselves up to make good money off their high school reputation. Andrew Wiggins was alright in college, but he was expected to have a season like Zion just did. He still went #1 overall and eventually signed a max contract. Michael Porter Jr. still went in the lottery after having two major back surgeries in a year. We saw it in the draft threads last year where plenty of fans were willing to look past the back issue because he was an elite HS recruit.

Reddish is going to cash out on high school reputation and measurements in a shallow draft. And yes, if he underperforms the red flags will look worse in hindsight, because they were obvious.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#122 » by VolumePoster » Sun May 19, 2019 2:47 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


His efficiency across the board in different play types suggests a player that's improving and has sneaky good offensive upside.

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At the very least, you're getting a player whose usage and role can easily be projected to the next level. You can see Hunter doing the same things at Virginia in the NBA: Value on both sides of the ball, knock-down three-point shooting, movement without the basketball, multiple efforts on defense, high basketball IQ. If there's a homerun swing in this, it's hoping that he becomes a premier 3/D player who can switch on nearly everything.


Agreed. And we don't need a home run. We need to keep taking successful NBA players like Lauri and WCJ and then, when a star is available, you go for it.

Regardless of who we draft, most shots will go to Zach, followed by Lauri, followed by OPJ/WCJ. Getting a highly efficient shooter to space the floor and defend at a high level is an excellent result for this draft at 7. It doesn't matter that he won't start. Let him back up the 3 and the 4. Add Lopez at the 5 and that's the makings of an excellent bench.

Hunter would be a great pick IMO.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#123 » by VolumePoster » Sun May 19, 2019 2:54 pm

Bluewaterheaven wrote:Can Hunter be a SG?


In the era of positionless basketball he can be a "wing." But he's not a ball handler or creator. He's a finisher and defender with some post-up ability.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#124 » by JimmyJammer » Sun May 19, 2019 2:57 pm

Yes, we need shooting. It was evident by the absence of Valentine. Anyway, I expect the organization to go with the best PG available or go big. We do have a lot of guys on the wing, especially with Valentine coming back. I think our draft order goes like this at 7:
Garland
White
Hunter
Culver
Bol Bol
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#125 » by JimmyJammer » Sun May 19, 2019 3:02 pm

VolumePoster wrote:
Bluewaterheaven wrote:Can Hunter be a SG?


In the era of positionless basketball he can be a "wing." But he's not a ball handler or creator. He's a finisher and defender with some post-up ability.


Hunter seems to be a 3/4 as opposed to a 3/2, which might be beneficial in small ball lineups. The problem is the organization is thinking 1/2 instead. I think it was a a real punch in the nuts when we dropped below top 5.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#126 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 3:03 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
cjbulls wrote:The opposite is true. If Reddish misses, everyone will say "You saw his numbers at Duke, how could you think he'd be better in the NBA." He is not a safe pick

And I didn't mention just GMs either, the media all have him ranked 7th or 8 on big boards (ESPN, Ringer, Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated).


Coldfish is right that early reputation creates quick and lasting narratives. Jonathan Givony talked about this last year, saying that elite ecruits, regardless if they perform poorly in college, set themselves up to make good money off their high school reputation. Andrew Wiggins was alright in college, but he was expected to have a season like Zion just did. He still went #1 overall and eventually signed a max contract. Michael Porter Jr. still went in the lottery after having two major back surgeries in a year. We saw it in the draft threads last year where plenty of fans were willing to look past the back issue because he was an elite HS recruit.

Reddish is going to cash out on high school reputation and measurements in a shallow draft. And yes, if he underperforms the red flags will look worse in hindsight, because they were obvious.


If Givony recognizes this phenomena, why does he have Reddish 7th on his big board?
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#127 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 3:05 pm

cjbulls wrote:
Red Larrivee wrote:
cjbulls wrote:The opposite is true. If Reddish misses, everyone will say "You saw his numbers at Duke, how could you think he'd be better in the NBA." He is not a safe pick

And I didn't mention just GMs either, the media all have him ranked 7th or 8 on big boards (ESPN, Ringer, Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated).


Coldfish is right that early reputation creates quick and lasting narratives. Jonathan Givony talked about this last year, saying that elite ecruits, regardless if they perform poorly in college, set themselves up to make good money off their high school reputation. Andrew Wiggins was alright in college, but he was expected to have a season like Zion just did. He still went #1 overall and eventually signed a max contract. Michael Porter Jr. still went in the lottery after having two major back surgeries in a year. We saw it in the draft threads last year where plenty of fans were willing to look past the back issue because he was an elite HS recruit.

Reddish is going to cash out on high school reputation and measurements in a shallow draft. And yes, if he underperforms the red flags will look worse in hindsight, because they were obvious.


If Givony recognizes this phenomena, why does he have Reddish 7th on his big board?


Because this draft is extremely shallow, allowing for an underachiever with elite high school reputation to still be drafted high.

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2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#128 » by StunnerKO » Sun May 19, 2019 3:11 pm

Garland , White , Culver , Hunter Or Reddish at 7


Charles Matthews at pick 38
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#129 » by logical_art » Sun May 19, 2019 3:14 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


His efficiency across the board in different play types suggests a player that's improving and has sneaky good offensive upside.

Image

At the very least, you're getting a player whose usage and role can easily be projected to the next level. You can see Hunter doing the same things at Virginia in the NBA: Value on both sides of the ball, knock-down three-point shooting, movement without the basketball, multiple efforts on defense, high basketball IQ. If there's a homerun swing in this, it's hoping that he becomes a premier 3/D player who can switch on nearly everything.


Not really fair to compare 3 teenage freshmen with a 21 year old Jr.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#130 » by jump » Sun May 19, 2019 3:18 pm

We need a Draymond Green. Where do we find one of those?
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#131 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
Red Larrivee wrote:
Coldfish is right that early reputation creates quick and lasting narratives. Jonathan Givony talked about this last year, saying that elite ecruits, regardless if they perform poorly in college, set themselves up to make good money off their high school reputation. Andrew Wiggins was alright in college, but he was expected to have a season like Zion just did. He still went #1 overall and eventually signed a max contract. Michael Porter Jr. still went in the lottery after having two major back surgeries in a year. We saw it in the draft threads last year where plenty of fans were willing to look past the back issue because he was an elite HS recruit.

Reddish is going to cash out on high school reputation and measurements in a shallow draft. And yes, if he underperforms the red flags will look worse in hindsight, because they were obvious.


If Givony recognizes this phenomena, why does he have Reddish 7th on his big board?


Because this draft is extremely shallow, allowing for an underachiever with elite high school reputation to still be drafted high.

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Sounds like a weak justification. If he is a bust, with a tiny % chance of success like you and several others have believed, he wouldn't be that high even in a poor draft. He's universally listed between the high floor guys and the next tier. He's not even listed near the Bol/Little types that fit your high profile HS criteria.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#132 » by TheHrvReport » Sun May 19, 2019 3:58 pm

logical_art wrote:
Red Larrivee wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Hunter is an extremely efficient offensive player, and he's a seriously good defender (only thing holding him back from elite status is steal/block rates imo).

But I don't see the ceiling with him. I thought I did after his freshman season, but now it feels like his limitations are a bit more clear. He's like a 3/D combo-forward. He doesn't have the offensive fluidity or skill flashes to be a guy that really turns in to a high upside offensive player, from what I saw this season.


His efficiency across the board in different play types suggests a player that's improving and has sneaky good offensive upside.

Image

At the very least, you're getting a player whose usage and role can easily be projected to the next level. You can see Hunter doing the same things at Virginia in the NBA: Value on both sides of the ball, knock-down three-point shooting, movement without the basketball, multiple efforts on defense, high basketball IQ. If there's a homerun swing in this, it's hoping that he becomes a premier 3/D player who can switch on nearly everything.


Not really fair to compare 3 teenage freshmen with a 21 year old Jr.

This is true but even if you look at Hunter's freshman season, he still beats all of them in every category listed above except his OBPM is a little lower than Barretts. I'm coming around to taking Hunter and trying to acquire a star in free agency or trade market in a year or 2 when most of our young core have blossomed.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#133 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 4:00 pm

TheHrvReport wrote:
logical_art wrote:
Red Larrivee wrote:
His efficiency across the board in different play types suggests a player that's improving and has sneaky good offensive upside.

Image

At the very least, you're getting a player whose usage and role can easily be projected to the next level. You can see Hunter doing the same things at Virginia in the NBA: Value on both sides of the ball, knock-down three-point shooting, movement without the basketball, multiple efforts on defense, high basketball IQ. If there's a homerun swing in this, it's hoping that he becomes a premier 3/D player who can switch on nearly everything.


Not really fair to compare 3 teenage freshmen with a 21 year old Jr.

This is true but even if you look at Hunter's freshman season, he still beats all of them in every category listed above except his OBPM is a little lower than Barretts. I'm coming around to taking Hunter and trying to acquire a star in free agency or trade market in a year or 2 when most of our young core have blossomed.


Hunter redshirted his freshman season. So he was closer to a sophomore when those season stats were compiled.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#134 » by cjbulls » Sun May 19, 2019 4:03 pm

jump wrote:We need a Draymond Green. Where do we find one of those?


Draymond, Rodman, Ben Wallace and Anthony Mason were all taken second round or later. Seems like they are very difficult to pick out through traditional scouting.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#135 » by Red Larrivee » Sun May 19, 2019 4:06 pm

cjbulls wrote:Sounds like a weak justification. If he is a bust, with a tiny % chance of success like you and several others have believed, he wouldn't be that high even in a poor draft. He's universally listed between the high floor guys and the next tier. He's not even listed near the Bol/Little types that fit your high profile HS criteria.


Keep in mind that I never said Reddish is going to be a bust. I said the chances of Reddish becoming a star are microscopic and he's not a "swing for the fences" pick. The chances of him becoming a useful player are higher, though his lack of success as a roleplayer doesn't paint the picture of someone who can adapt to different offenses. Basically, I've learned my lesson from hoping that underachieving elite high school recruits will suddenly realize their potential once they're in the NBA. If it happens, more power to them, but it''s not a sustainable way of thinking.

Elite high school reputation is enough of a reason for players to get draftted high. It's the earliest form of pedigree and creates the first narratives of players. If Andrew Wiggins wasn't compared to LeBron before stepping foot on a college court, he doesn't go #1 overall.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#136 » by DuckIII » Sun May 19, 2019 4:46 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
DanTown8587 wrote:If you’re going to hit a “HR” outside the top 5, it’s far more likely you’re going to do so because you drafted a player who has deficient in some areas becoming better than you are drafting some athlete and hoping they’re good.

DeAndre Hunter is the homerun swing, not Cam Reddish.


Yeah, this is where I'm leaning as well. Hunter's floor is very appealing: Guards 1-4, good three-point shooter, good athlete, multiple effort player on both sides of the ball, high IQ and produced at a high level with sustainable and projectable usage.


I love these reports that White has a promise before 7. That would be about as ideal a scenario as we can reasonably expect to get at 7. And then the presumption would be Hunter falls. And I agree with you both that if that happens, you take Hunter no questions asked.

The thing that will have me leaning towards Reddish and Little is White being on the board.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#137 » by JimmyJammer » Sun May 19, 2019 5:06 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Sounds like a weak justification. If he is a bust, with a tiny % chance of success like you and several others have believed, he wouldn't be that high even in a poor draft. He's universally listed between the high floor guys and the next tier. He's not even listed near the Bol/Little types that fit your high profile HS criteria.


Keep in mind that I never said Reddish is going to be a bust. I said the chances of Reddish becoming a star are microscopic and he's not a "swing for the fences" pick. The chances of him becoming a useful player are higher, though his lack of success as a roleplayer doesn't paint the picture of someone who can adapt to different offenses. Basically, I've learned my lesson from hoping that underachieving elite high school recruits will suddenly realize their potential once they're in the NBA. If it happens, more power to them, but it''s not a sustainable way of thinking.

Elite high school reputation is enough of a reason for players to get draftted high. It's the earliest form of pedigree and creates the first narratives of players. If Andrew Wiggins wasn't compared to LeBron before stepping foot on a college court, he doesn't go #1 overall.


Ironically, I can see Reddish stock rising if he starts having some strong workouts. That reminds me of Kevin Knox of last year's draft. He had and underwhelming college season and was projected to go 12-15, but he started killing the competition in workouts.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#138 » by bigworld2017 » Sun May 19, 2019 5:12 pm

GimmeDat wrote:
Showtime23 wrote:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:
A top ranked defensive player who can give you 15 pts, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block at a .600+ TS is a very valuable player on a championship contending team. In fact, that kind of productive is on the same level as Luol Deng, who is a two time All Star in the NBA.


Think he will end up being rich man's Mikal Bridges. Production will be similar to Deng with elite shooting close to Porter's but worse slashing ability. 3rd/4th option on a championship contending team is very valuable.
That 7'2" wingspan tho is tantalizing. If he somehow tightens his handles, PG13 is his absolute ceiling.


One thing I'd point out about the Mikal comparison is that while they both shot 40%+ from 3, Mikal took 7 attempts per 40, Hunter 3, and while Mikal shot 85% from the line, Deandre shot 78%. I have no doubt that Hunter is a good shooter, but he's far from prolific or providing the same spacing impact as a Mikal. Also Mikal's STL/BLK rates were almost double Hunter's, so he's a bit more disruptive on the defensive end (Hunter's still excellent).

As for the on-ball creation stuff, I think that will largely be reduced in the NBA. He has a bit of a mid-post game, but I think that'll largely be saved for exploiting clear mismatches, and other than the occasional pull-up off a strong closeout, I think he's more or less going to be a 3/D guy at the next level. I don't think it's likely he's going to be a 15+ppg guy.

But there's no doubt he's a 'winner' and a guy that will look great in on/off stats. Plays the game the right way, extremely smart on both ends of the floor, an elite and super versatile defender, and will knock down open shots.

But here's something worth considering that goes against that - Hunter's team played at one of the slowest paces in college basketball and he still scored 19pp/40. But you know, sometimes older college players put up big numbers that don't necessarily translate, and Hunter is older than most people realize because he redshirted - he'll be 22 in December. So that's why I'm hesitant, because I think the actual skill-set is a little cerebral offensively.



The other thing I like about Hunter is that IF he develops it allows us to move Porter before the 2020-21 season if we need to free up money to extend Lauri after this season. I'd prefer to draft Garland if he's there. But if not Hunter may be our best bet. Almost no chance he's a bust.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#139 » by Nikola » Sun May 19, 2019 5:15 pm

I don't get how White and Garland could both have a promise before the 7th pick. You have to think the LAL have a possibility of trading their pick.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery 

Post#140 » by bigworld2017 » Sun May 19, 2019 5:15 pm

JimmyJammer wrote:
VolumePoster wrote:
Bluewaterheaven wrote:Can Hunter be a SG?


In the era of positionless basketball he can be a "wing." But he's not a ball handler or creator. He's a finisher and defender with some post-up ability.


Hunter seems to be a 3/4 as opposed to a 3/2, which might be beneficial in small ball lineups. The problem is the organization is thinking 1/2 instead. I think it was a a real punch in the nuts when we dropped below top 5.



Yes. But with his elite defensive fundamentals and wingspan he can guard 1 through 4, and for extended minutes, not just briefly on switches. He gives Boylen a lot of flexibility with lineups and matchups.

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