cjbulls wrote:You continue to ignore that Paul George put up those numbers on Fresno State in the WAC on a team that finished below .500 both years in conference and out of conference, dead last one of those year. George wasn't picked based on his numbers and his numbers didn't justify even a second round draft slot. And yes, that is a very middling efficiency for a top 10 pick from a mid-major. Reddish is playing in the ACC against Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, Florida State and North Carolina.
And you are ignoring his situation, another reason why pointing to college numbers is dangerous. You could certainly argue the strengths and weaknesses of going to Duke with the other top two HS recruits and NBA draft pick projections. But I can only think of two situations where 3 elite players randomly all came together for the first time: LeBron to Miami and LeBron to Cleveland. Both times, one of the three players (Bosh and Love) took a substantial hit to their numbers. They were not the same player and both discussed at length how difficult that transition was both athletically and personally.
Now imagine instead of being 25 year old man with past NBA All-Star success and max contracts, they were 18 year old kids out on their own for the first time. How do you think those players, or anyone, would handle it?
I have Reddish in the 8-10 range, so I wouldn't end up even taking him if I was in charge of the Bulls. But there is enough reasonable doubt and NBA traits that I wouldn't pretend his college numbers mean he can't be a very good NBA player.
Again, George did not post middling efficiency in college. A 58% TS is not middling in college basketball or the NBA.
Reddish playing in the ACC is not the reason he had an awful season. I understand Reddish's situation. He became a catch/shoot player with Zion, Barrett and Jones handling the ball more. He had a three-point rate in excess of 60% and 80% of those shots were assisted on. But, Reddish was not an effective role player, nor was he a really good individual player outside of that. He was a poor offensive player last season with a few bright spots in pick-and-roll, and off the dribble shooting.
His college numbers don't mean he can't be a good NBA player; it means he's unlikely to be one. It means he's even more unlikely to become a star, which is why he's not really a high upside pick. If Reddish's profile triggers thoughts of all-stardom, then you could probably do this for the vast majority of prospects in this class.
You're disregarding Reddish's college production and game tape significantly and hoping that his high school reputation is still valid. There are very, very few examples of that being true for players in the history of the draft. Drafting Reddish is pinning hopes on multple low probabilities.
It just isn't wise for a team that needs to hit on draft picks.
