2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[JohnnyKILLroy]

The way you all are rushing to dispute Pelton when it doesn’t support your view cracks me up. #5!!!!

I’m apparently the only vocal one who recognizes drafting is not a science.

Taking a scientific approach is more likely to yield positive results than that one summer Reddish was a tiny bit less terrible.

[fleet]

The way you all are rushing to dispute Pelton when it doesn’t support your view cracks me up. #5!!!!

I’m apparently the only vocal one who recognizes drafting is not a science.

Reddish has had a career that makes it tough to pull the trigger in the top 10. He would a be a grrreat roll of the dice starting at 11 or 12 down. That being said, if a GM higher than that has conviction on a guy in order to reach, I'm not mad if it is on a toolsy kind of guy such as Cam.

I've been thinking about the types of people characterwise that have problems getting their game on track in school, and turn it on in the NBA. Probably guys that aren't handed the alpha role by a college coach and have to fight for it, and then don't. Red character flag on the player for sure. On the other hand, some odd kids simply hate school, and don't even care. They just want to get to the league before they make effort to check in mentally. IDK. It prob doesn't often work that way. But if it does, it does for the guys with the measurables. I'll let the Bulls interview him and investigate. If they want to go that route.

[CoreyVillains]

Here’s the “Not so good Cam” film. If you’re on team Cam, at least you can say he’s going to be a plus wing defender who can guard multiple positions

Watch on YouTube

[fleet]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shows up. RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

If you’re on team Cam, at least you can say he’s going to be a plus wing defender who can guard multiple positions

I take his defense as hope. Defense is a pride thing. So, he's not a bottomless pit of self pity.

[CoreyVillains]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shoes up, RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

Honestly I don’t think fit with Zion was the problem. His fit with Tre and RJ was much worse. Add Zion into the mix and he becomes the fourth ball handler. He was really Duke’s only floor spacer (which was not great considering the % he shot it at), so he spent a lot of time standing strong corner waiting for a kick. Even if he was going to be used as an off ball shooter, he should have had more sets where he was coming off floppy action, pin downs, curls, etc. He was also really underutilized as a P&R ball handler. But you can’t use that stuff as an excuse as to why he shot so poorly. I do think that depending on who is left on the board at 7 he’d be fine to gamble on.

[kodo]

Regarding Reddish, I think the entire conversation about whether he’ll be a great shooter isn’t really what’s driving his draft stock. I’m pretty that’s already been decided. He shot 28% from 3 at EYBL as well. His FT% indicates he can learn a standstill catch & shoot 3 (and his form backs this up), so that will probably come eventually.

Most likely other measurable are being looked at for Reddish other than shooting. Steals has always been a good indicator for NBA success. Reddish himself in interviews isn’t billing himself as a shooter who just happened to have an unlucky year. He’s pitching himself as a do it all jack-of-all-trades type of player who will do whatever it takes to help. There have been successful 7’ wingspan SFs who couldn’t shoot 3s that became great players, eg Andre Iguodala.

I also don’t think college data should be the only set, the variance in competition is too large. Cam Payne, Canaan, McDermott racked up huge #s in college playing against weak competition, but it was still college. Wendell Carter at EYBL had to go 1 on 1 vs Deandre Ayton. But that wasn’t college. Mitchell Robinson broke a few EYBL records as a big man, and he’s been a monster of a 2nd round pick this season and outplayed several high 1st rounders to make the All-Rookie teams.

There's definitely a case for Reddish as long as you're not looking for a shooter. But that's not Chicago. 30th in the league in 3P makes in an era where 3P shooting more or less determines your success.

[bigworld2017]

If you take Goga, you have to trade Wendell for #8 immediately.

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

Wy trade Carter if we pick Goga? We'd have a really good 3 big rotation. We would not have to resign RoLo. We can use that money to help get Beverly or Brogdon to cover the PG starting position for the next 2 years. Next year's Draft is deep with PG prospects. We can get our PG of the future in next year's draft. I'd be willing to roll into next season with Beverly or Brogdon starting, and Dunn and Arci off the bench. Lavine, Valentine and Harrison at the "2", Porter and Hutch at the "3", and the 3 big rotation. Fill out the roster with JaKarr, Blakeney and Felicio and our 2nd Rounder. Of the group only Lavine or Porter would be making over $20 Million. It's a team that could make the playoffs. We aren't a contender yet even if we added a cap killing max free agent. But it's a developing team that would get more wins and be more entertaining to watch...if they can stay healthy.

[drosereturn]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shows up at the last second. RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

If you draft Cam, your basically ignoring a major WARNING sign down the road that says theres major danger incoming.
Just like why so many die in Grand Canyon for a perfect photograph knowing the risks involved.
Another lottery team will take a risk on him and waste that entire yr. Its already guaranteed to happen but teams will still do it knowing its dumb thing to do.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

If you take Goga, you have to trade Wendell for #8 immediately.

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

Wy trade Carter if we pick Goga? We'd have a really good 3 big rotation. We would not have to resign RoLo. We can use that money to help get Beverly or Brogdon to cover the PG starting position for the next 2 years. Next year's Draft is deep with PG prospects. We can get our PG of the future in next year's draft. I'd be willing to roll into next season with Beverly or Brogdon starting, and Dunn and Arci off the bench. Lavine, Valentine and Harrison at the "2", Porter and Hutch at the "3", and the 3 big rotation. Fill out the roster with JaKarr, Blakeney and Felicio and our 2nd Rounder. Of the group only Lavine or Porter would be making over $20 Million. It's a team that could make the playoffs. We aren't a contender yet even if we added a cap killing max free agent. But it's a developing team that would get more wins and be more entertaining to watch...if they can stay healthy.

I’ve also thought about this - 3 headed monster at the 4/5. I’m not sure about Wendell’s situation playing the 4, I would have to see more of him there I guess. No doubt Goga is very talented, but if I were to envision an ideal 3rd big minute big I would rather have a Montrezl Harrell type maybe? Maybe even a Pascal Siakam type? It’s something to examine.

[fleet]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shoes up, RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

Honestly I don’t think fit with Zion was the problem. His fit with Tre and RJ was much worse. Add Zion into the mix and he becomes the fourth ball handler. He was really Duke’s only floor spacer (which was not great considering the % he shot it at), so he spent a lot of time standing strong corner waiting for a kick. Even if he was going to be used as an off ball shooter, he should have had more sets where he was coming off floppy action, pin downs, curls, etc. He was also really underutilized as a P&R ball handler. But you can’t use that stuff as an excuse as to why he shot so poorly. I do think that depending on who is left on the board at 7 he’d be fine to gamble on.

yeah sure, the raw fit questions, and how he was used. TBH I don't know enough about basketball to get deep into that analysis. Though you look at what he can do and wonder why he can't apply himself to any of these roles. Was coach unhappy with him at all? Hard to know, my questions had to do more with whether or not Cam ever really gave himself a chance to grow into larger roles during plays he should have been able to easily do. Did he like school, did he hate it, or was it a shade of gray where he tanked under competition from his own team because he is immature. His spot up shooting is certainly a worry for me, though he had a different percentage on other kinds of jumpers. Form looks like it should work. Mostly I had a passing question whether or not he cared about the team enough to apply himself, or was he just waiting for the NBA. Or, was he willing to be more functional until Zion showed up and then he felt crowded and he folded. The small sample size in games without Zion showed similar usage I believe without Zion. Something was wrong with this picture. The fact that he visibly could engage on defense means he does have the ability to take his direct matchup opponent seriously. That may mean he has some reserve mental upside to build with for a team that drafts him.

[JohnnyTapwater]

Cam is the ultimate pie in the sky vs. pie on the table debate. I can't wait to see how he turns out, it'll go a long way to help me refine my talent assessment.

[fleet]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shows up at the last second. RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

If you draft Cam, your basically ignoring a major WARNING sign down the road that says theres major danger incoming.
Just like why so many die in Grand Canyon for a perfect photograph knowing the risks involved.
Another lottery team will take a risk on him and waste that entire yr. Its already guaranteed to happen but teams will still do it knowing its dumb thing to do.

Well. The teams will do their investigations into him, and hopefully they can determine what is wrong with him. Duck made a point that sort of resonated with me, even while he is re-thinking his Cam Reddish outlook. In this draft, there aren't a ton of great options at #7 unless you are extemely high on White. So, bypassing these options for a dice roll on a Cam experiment is not that huge a price to pay for failure. The team needs a home run, more than a base hit. They can get a base hit in free agency much more easily than the home run. Gosh, I'm not advocating for Cam Reddish specifically, but I would understand the Bulls going for this if they can increase the odds during their analysis.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shows up at the last second. RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

If you draft Cam, your basically ignoring a major WARNING sign down the road that says theres major danger incoming.
Just like why so many die in Grand Canyon for a perfect photograph knowing the risks involved.
Another lottery team will take a risk on him and waste that entire yr. Its already guaranteed to happen but teams will still do it knowing its dumb thing to do.

Well. The teams will do their investigations into him, and hopefully they can determine what is wrong with him. Duck made a point that sort of resonated with me, even while he is re-thinking his Cam Reddish outlook. In this draft, there aren't a ton of great options at #7 unless you are extemely high on White. So, bypassing these options for a dice roll on a Cam experiment is not that huge a price to pay for failure. The team needs a home run, more than a base hit. They can get a base hit in free agency much more easily than the home run. Gosh, I'm not advocating for Cam Reddish specifically, but I would understand the Bulls going for this if they can increase the odds during their analysis.

I would think it’s more along the lines of - Being at the plate against Randy Johnson or take a triple that you could leg out to a home run.

[fleet]

Taking the #7 outside of Cam is not a triple. It is still being at the plate against Randy Johnson. Or at least, being at the plate against the the proverbial bullpen saving catcher in the 9th inning of a blowout that is throwing 54 MPH and is therefore virtually unhittable

[DanTown8587]

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

Wy trade Carter if we pick Goga? We'd have a really good 3 big rotation. We would not have to resign RoLo. We can use that money to help get Beverly or Brogdon to cover the PG starting position for the next 2 years. Next year's Draft is deep with PG prospects. We can get our PG of the future in next year's draft. I'd be willing to roll into next season with Beverly or Brogdon starting, and Dunn and Arci off the bench. Lavine, Valentine and Harrison at the "2", Porter and Hutch at the "3", and the 3 big rotation. Fill out the roster with JaKarr, Blakeney and Felicio and our 2nd Rounder. Of the group only Lavine or Porter would be making over $20 Million. It's a team that could make the playoffs. We aren't a contender yet even if we added a cap killing max free agent. But it's a developing team that would get more wins and be more entertaining to watch...if they can stay healthy.

I’ve also thought about this - 3 headed monster at the 4/5. I’m not sure about Wendell’s situation playing the 4, I would have to see more of him there I guess. No doubt Goga is very talented, but if I were to envision an ideal 3rd big minute big I would rather have a Montrezl Harrell type maybe? Maybe even a Pascal Siakam type? It’s something to examine.

The problem with the three big lineup idea is that it almost exclusively eliminates the potential for a Porter/Lauri smaller and quicker lineup; you are really saying that Lauri is essentially a 4 only and Porter a 3 only when I think both guys can be quite valuable sliding a spot higher based on matchups. Taking Goga and holding Carter is also a move that makes the chemistry of the team a little weird because you have guys all playing for that second contract in the same spaces on the floor.

Assuming the choice is #7 and Carter/Goga, I'm not sure that I wouldn't want Hunter and either of those two guys rather than those two. Maybe they're both slightly better than Hunter but Hunter is a far more versatile and needed player on this team than having Goga/Carter.

I like the idea of a cheaper/quicker guy at the 5 and a rim running type so the Harrell/Bell/etc type but those guys can be had for much cheaper than the #7 pick. It's not the player that I don't like in Goga; it's the asset cost and the fact you really are leaving gaping holes on the wing and backcourt to basically leave no flexibility in the front court unless someone is really bad. Think Boston this year.

[DanTown8587]

I do know that Zion was a late addition to the team. Cam prob thought Duke was his (and RJ's) team. Then Zion shows up at the last second. RJ responded better, but Cam caved and shelved himself. Again, not good. But is it a fatal flaw or a spoiled soft kid that needs a longer time to grow into manhood? These are the hard questions for teams to figure out answers for.

If you draft Cam, your basically ignoring a major WARNING sign down the road that says theres major danger incoming.
Just like why so many die in Grand Canyon for a perfect photograph knowing the risks involved.
Another lottery team will take a risk on him and waste that entire yr. Its already guaranteed to happen but teams will still do it knowing its dumb thing to do.

Well. The teams will do their investigations into him, and hopefully they can determine what is wrong with him. Duck made a point that sort of resonated with me, even while he is re-thinking his Cam Reddish outlook. In this draft, there aren't a ton of great options at #7 unless you are extemely high on White. So, bypassing these options for a dice roll on a Cam experiment is not that huge a price to pay for failure. The team needs a home run, more than a base hit. They can get a base hit in free agency much more easily than the home run. Gosh, I'm not advocating for Cam Reddish specifically, but I would understand the Bulls going for this if they can increase the odds during their analysis.

Here's the thing: people make the "go for a homerun" type draft pick sound good. Go back and evaluate all the "home run" picks the past X years in the draft and tell me how many fit the profile of Reddish: a top 5 HS recruit who played very underwhelming in college and then turned it back on in the pros? How many of those guys fit the player profile of Reddish where the shot form is good, the athleticism is good, the dribble is good and yet the results are poor?

No matter who we draft, the idea is that they have get vastly better. Here's my question: why would you bet on a guy who spent years 17-19 not getting ANY better?

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Wy trade Carter if we pick Goga? We'd have a really good 3 big rotation. We would not have to resign RoLo. We can use that money to help get Beverly or Brogdon to cover the PG starting position for the next 2 years. Next year's Draft is deep with PG prospects. We can get our PG of the future in next year's draft. I'd be willing to roll into next season with Beverly or Brogdon starting, and Dunn and Arci off the bench. Lavine, Valentine and Harrison at the "2", Porter and Hutch at the "3", and the 3 big rotation. Fill out the roster with JaKarr, Blakeney and Felicio and our 2nd Rounder. Of the group only Lavine or Porter would be making over $20 Million. It's a team that could make the playoffs. We aren't a contender yet even if we added a cap killing max free agent. But it's a developing team that would get more wins and be more entertaining to watch...if they can stay healthy.

I’ve also thought about this - 3 headed monster at the 4/5. I’m not sure about Wendell’s situation playing the 4, I would have to see more of him there I guess. No doubt Goga is very talented, but if I were to envision an ideal 3rd big minute big I would rather have a Montrezl Harrell type maybe? Maybe even a Pascal Siakam type? It’s something to examine.

The problem with the three big lineup idea is that it almost exclusively eliminates the potential for a Porter/Lauri smaller and quicker lineup; you are really saying that Lauri is essentially a 4 only and Porter a 3 only when I think both guys can be quite valuable sliding a spot higher based on matchups. Taking Goga and holding Carter is also a move that makes the chemistry of the team a little weird because you have guys all playing for that second contract in the same spaces on the floor.

Assuming the choice is #7 and Carter/Goga, I'm not sure that I wouldn't want Hunter and either of those two guys rather than those two. Maybe they're both slightly better than Hunter but Hunter is a far more versatile and needed player on this team than having Goga/Carter.

I like the idea of a cheaper/quicker guy at the 5 and a rim running type so the Harrell/Bell/etc type but those guys can be had for much cheaper than the #7 pick. It's not the player that I don't like in Goga; it's the asset cost and the fact you really are leaving gaping holes on the wing and backcourt to basically leave no flexibility in the front court unless someone is really bad. Think Boston this year.

I have similar concerns.

If we go wing/PG at 7 I do think there could be interesting bigs available at 38 we could get a rim runner shot blocker type there.

There could be some nice value there with today's emphasis on wings/shooters - pushing bigs down the board.

[Red Larrivee]

If you need a home run, then don't swing at a fastball in the dirt. Nothing about his profile screams home run. Everything about it screams early-blooming career role player, who bounces around the league and underwhelms.

Meanwhile, the SF who doubled his win shares without a rise in Usage Rate, increased his TS% from 58.4 to 61.8, and has a positive effect on both sides of the ball is considered "low upside."

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[bearadonisdna]

If you draft Cam, your basically ignoring a major WARNING sign down the road that says theres major danger incoming.
Just like why so many die in Grand Canyon for a perfect photograph knowing the risks involved.
Another lottery team will take a risk on him and waste that entire yr. Its already guaranteed to happen but teams will still do it knowing its dumb thing to do.

Well. The teams will do their investigations into him, and hopefully they can determine what is wrong with him. Duck made a point that sort of resonated with me, even while he is re-thinking his Cam Reddish outlook. In this draft, there aren't a ton of great options at #7 unless you are extemely high on White. So, bypassing these options for a dice roll on a Cam experiment is not that huge a price to pay for failure. The team needs a home run, more than a base hit. They can get a base hit in free agency much more easily than the home run. Gosh, I'm not advocating for Cam Reddish specifically, but I would understand the Bulls going for this if they can increase the odds during their analysis.

Here's the thing: people make the "go for a homerun" type draft pick sound good. Go back and evaluate all the "home run" picks the past X years in the draft and tell me how many fit the profile of Reddish: a top 5 HS recruit who played very underwhelming in college and then turned it back on in the pros? How many of those guys fit the player profile of Reddish where the shot form is good, the athleticism is good, the dribble is good and yet the results are poor?

No matter who we draft, the idea is that they have get vastly better. Here's my question: why would you bet on a guy who spent years 17-19 not getting ANY better?

Ask yourself this question
Why do guys in the NBA with good form, good handle, good athleticism , come into the NBA and not have success?

It's like if a draft pick was a cookie, you can't tell him hey we need you to be a hotdog.

You have to bring in the cookie and say, hey we need to make something sweet.

[fleet]

If you need a home run, then don't swing at a fastball in the dirt. Nothing about his profile screams home run. Everything about it screams early-blooming career role player, who bounces around the league and underwhelms.

Meanwhile, the SF who doubled his win shares without a rise in Usage Rate, increased his TS% from 58.4 to 61.8, and has a positive effect on both sides of the ball is considered "low upside."

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I doubt anyone has suggested not taking the player you reference, should he fall to #7. Most people would love that pick.