WT:Bulls interested in Lonzo Ball

[R3AL1TY]

With Lonzo, you want him to do the PG related things good: pick n rolls, making the right pass, pushing the tempo of the offense, and protecting the ball. He's not a scoring PG nor should he have to be.

If he can work on drawing more fouls, his free throws, and on his jumping mechanics for certain shots, he'll definitely be more of a threat with his scoring to keep defenses honest. But for now, at least we know he will contribute well with his defense and rebounding even if he's having a game with just 6 points.

He may not be worth the 7th pick, but for the right price or deal, I don't mind giving him a shot and hearing Lavar say Lonzo is better than Pippen lol

[sco]

With Lonzo, you want him to do the PG related things good: pick n rolls, making the right pass, pushing the tempo of the offense, and protecting the ball. He's not a scoring PG nor should he have to be.

If he can work on drawing more fouls, his free throws, and on his jumping mechanics for certain shots, he'll definitely be more of a threat with his scoring to keep defenses honest. But for now, at least we know he will contribute well with his defense and rebounding even if he's having a game with just 6 points.

He may not be worth the 7th pick, but for the right price or deal, I don't mind giving him a shot and hearing Lavar say Lonzo is better than Pippen lol

I think you hit on a point that is central to the discussion. Certainly, it depends on the other 4 guys because there are only so many shots to go around. In the past I noted that there are different scoring skillsets for primary vs. secondary vs. tertiary offensive options. IMO:

First option scorer needs to be able to score semi-efficiently against double-teams (which will happen most of the time).

Second option scorers need to be able to score efficiently against single coverage.

Third option guys need to be very efficient scores when left open.

IMO Lonzo (as with Dunn, MCW and many others) can't hurt defenses when cheated off.

[CjayC]

Lonzo doesn't have to be a 'scorer', but he does have to be a respectable shot maker. At least to the degree that the defense knows they can't sag off of him, and right now that's not happening. I thought someone posted some stats saying Lonzo is worse than Dunn out of the PnR. That's how bad his shooting is, they'd rather collapse and concede the open shot to Ball rather than respecting all of the options out of the PnR.

[Ferulci]

I'm one of the last citizens of Lonzo Ball island.
He just makes his team better. Just like Rubio, it can't always being explained, but the ball movement is smoother and the defense is better when he's there.
His shooting (and FT) stats cannot be defended but I think they can be improved to at least decent levels.
My biggest concern is his health. He always has something which makes offseason improvements very difficult for him. That's why this summer is very important : it will decide if he takes the Elfrid Payton path or the Gary Payton path.

That being said, no way in HELL should we give the 7th pick for him. Too high of a risk. I won't go beyond Top 12 protected pick and scrubs like Hutchinson/Valentine for him.

OK. You said your a fan of Ball but you wont trade a overrrated 7th pick in a garbage draft. Why would Lakers take Bulls garbage and trade away a former 2nd pick that was potentially better than Russell? Think abt it for a moment.

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I'm talking from Bulls perspective. We want to buy low and sell high, not the other way around. Even in a weak draft, 7th spot can land you between a potential starter and a allstar. That has value.
Lonzo Ball is at an all-time low value and right now he's absolutely not worth a 7th pick with his injuries issues and shooting.
I understand Lakers not doing that trade as they also want to sell high. But if Lakers get another allstar playmaker (like Butler, Kawhi or other), Ball value is instantly diminished.

[Great]

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[BigJimFinn]

Lonzo doesn't have to be a 'scorer', but he does have to be a respectable shot maker. At least to the degree that the defense knows they can't sag off of him, and right now that's not happening. I thought someone posted some stats saying Lonzo is worse than Dunn out of the PnR. That's how bad his shooting is, they'd rather collapse and concede the open shot to Ball rather than respecting all of the options out of the PnR.

That is really the reason why the "pure point guards" are no longer effective as playmakers. Simply moving the ball around with good passes is not enough to create scoring chances against modern half-court defenses. You have to first make the defense react, help and rotate, which opens up space and opportunities a good passer can exploit. The primary way to this is now the pick'n'roll, but it only works if the ballhandler is a scoring threat who can at least make the pull-up jumper, or drive and finish, or draw fouls and make FTs, otherwise as you say the defense doesn't need to react and no advantage is created. A primary ballhandler in PnR for a good team should be able to do all three. Lonzo cannot do any of those three. Kris Dunn can shoot the 12-foot pull-up with decent accuracy, but that is a shot any opponent will happily give up. So neither of those guys is able to run PnR effectively. Zach LaVine can do all three quite well, so he is a better option for a primary ballhandler, but his decision making, dribble control and passing are not good enough to fully exploit the openings. I believe his productivity would be optimised as a secondary ballhandler focused on scoring, which is why the Bulls should try and find any path to acquiring a primary ballhandler.

The other way of forcing the D to react is the pure ISO, if your ballhandler can consistently beat his primary defender. Lonzo most definitely isn't a scoring threat in pure ISO.

The classic ways for creating threats that require defensive reactions are post-ups and cuts from off-ball screens. NBA defenses have become to wise to the basic inefficiency of post-up scoring and realised that there are only a handful of players whose post-ups against primary defenders actually require helping, unless the guy is such a poor passer that doubling can force a turnover. You may have noticed that most teams were happy to let Robin Lopez perform his personal variation of the 7-seconds-to-shoot-a-flat-jump-hook offense. Off-ball movement and screening can work if you have a guy like J.J.Redick running around, or a truly fine-tuned team offense which is very difficult to achieve, and a visionary passer like Lonzo undeniably is can add value to that, but this is the most demanding path in terms of team-building and coaching ability. I would certainly like to see the Bulls developing that way, and it could suit Lauri very well, but I have no confidence in Boylen and the FO to execute this.

As a conclusion, even though Lonzo would improve the Bulls as a smarter defender and much better passer than Kris Dunn, he is likely not a long-term solution leading to a high-level offense (even assuming improvement to decent FT shooting, which I see as an absolute requirement for primary ballhandler), and the Bulls should not commit assets to getting him.

[bpguimaraes23]

Lonzo doesn't have to be a 'scorer', but he does have to be a respectable shot maker. At least to the degree that the defense knows they can't sag off of him, and right now that's not happening. I thought someone posted some stats saying Lonzo is worse than Dunn out of the PnR. That's how bad his shooting is, they'd rather collapse and concede the open shot to Ball rather than respecting all of the options out of the PnR.

That is really the reason why the "pure point guards" are no longer effective as playmakers. Simply moving the ball around with good passes is not enough to create scoring chances against modern half-court defenses. You have to first make the defense react, help and rotate, which opens up space and opportunities a good passer can exploit. The primary way to this is now the pick'n'roll, but it only works if the ballhandler is a scoring threat who can at least make the pull-up jumper, or drive and finish, or draw fouls and make FTs, otherwise as you say the defense doesn't need to react and no advantage is created. A primary ballhandler in PnR for a good team should be able to do all three. Lonzo cannot do any of those three. Kris Dunn can shoot the 12-foot pull-up with decent accuracy, but that is a shot any opponent will happily give up. So neither of those guys is able to run PnR effectively. Zach LaVine can do all three quite well, so he is a better option for a primary ballhandler, but his decision making, dribble control and passing are not good enough to fully exploit the openings. I believe his productivity would be optimised as a secondary ballhandler focused on scoring, which is why the Bulls should try and find any path to acquiring a primary ballhandler.

The other way of forcing the D to react is the pure ISO, if your ballhandler can consistently beat his primary defender. Lonzo most definitely isn't a scoring threat in pure ISO.

The classic ways for creating threats that require defensive reactions are post-ups and cuts from off-ball screens. NBA defenses have become to wise to the basic inefficiency of post-up scoring and realised that there are only a handful of players whose post-ups against primary defenders actually require helping, unless the guy is such a poor passer that doubling can force a turnover. You may have noticed that most teams were happy to let Robin Lopez perform his personal variation of the 7-seconds-to-shoot-a-flat-jump-hook offense. Off-ball movement and screening can work if you have a guy like J.J.Redick running around, or a truly fine-tuned team offense which is very difficult to achieve, and a visionary passer like Lonzo undeniably is can add value to that, but this is the most demanding path in terms of team-building and coaching ability. I would certainly like to see the Bulls developing that way, and it could suit Lauri very well, but I have no confidence in Boylen and the FO to execute this.

As a conclusion, even though Lonzo would improve the Bulls as a smarter defender and much better passer than Kris Dunn, he is likely not a long-term solution leading to a high-level offense (even assuming improvement to decent FT shooting, which I see as an absolute requirement for primary ballhandler), and the Bulls should not commit assets to getting him.

I agree with with your analysis about pure point guards and why Lonzo would not be the point guard of the future. But the Bulls are no building a contender, they just need someone a little competent so he won't hurt Lauri and WCJ development. Lonzo could be that guy for the right price.

[bullsnewdynasty]

Somebody is going to have to get shots for LaVine, Porter, Markkanen.

What I’m struggling to understand is how bringing in a shoot first PG with questionable playmaking like Coby White fits at all with our existing roster.

[StunnerKO]

Nobody would trade Wendell for Lonzo and draft Goga or Hayes at 7 right ?

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[R3AL1TY]

With Lonzo, you want him to do the PG related things good: pick n rolls, making the right pass, pushing the tempo of the offense, and protecting the ball. He's not a scoring PG nor should he have to be.

If he can work on drawing more fouls, his free throws, and on his jumping mechanics for certain shots, he'll definitely be more of a threat with his scoring to keep defenses honest. But for now, at least we know he will contribute well with his defense and rebounding even if he's having a game with just 6 points.

He may not be worth the 7th pick, but for the right price or deal, I don't mind giving him a shot and hearing Lavar say Lonzo is better than Pippen lol

I think you hit on a point that is central to the discussion. Certainly, it depends on the other 4 guys because there are only so many shots to go around. In the past I noted that there are different scoring skillsets for primary vs. secondary vs. tertiary offensive options. IMO:

First option scorer needs to be able to score semi-efficiently against double-teams (which will happen most of the time).

Second option scorers need to be able to score efficiently against single coverage.

Third option guys need to be very efficient scores when left open.

IMO Lonzo (as with Dunn, MCW and many others) can't hurt defenses when cheated off.

The funny thing here is if he can have Kris Dunn's 2018-19 field goal, 3pt and FT percentages on top of being a better passer, rebounder, and defender than him, he will improve the starting lineup.

Dunn is respectable enough to make shots near the basket, an occasional 3 or his free throws despite not being in the realm of your Lillards or Walkers.

[holv03]

Nobody would trade Wendell for Lonzo and draft Goga or Hayes at 7 right ?

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We are not trading Carter Jr.

[R3AL1TY]

I doubt Hayes or Goga are as good overall as WCJ and I highly doubt they'll trade him for them. I wouldn't mind if they were able to pickup another draft pick to draft either one of them though.

[Costa78]

People keep forgetting that WCJ was 19 years old as a rookie, and is no where near a finished product. He showed enough glimpses of being a top defender and plenty of promise IMO. I would put him as the 2nd most untradeable asset we have, after Lauri.

[MrFortune3]

Somebody is going to have to get shots for LaVine, Porter, Markkanen.

What I’m struggling to understand is how bringing in a shoot first PG with questionable playmaking like Coby White fits at all with our existing roster.

Bulls need more players who create their own offense. Having a guy who can make plays for the others is fine and all but he also has to be able to hit shots to make the opposing team pay for when they sag on the others to force the play maker to shoot.

A non shooting PG does us no good. It'd be like non playoff Rando all over again.

[GimmeDat]

Went back and watched Lonzo's DX video from 2017. He shot 73% at the rim in college and was 93%tile on contested 3's. That's some pretty elite college numbers for areas in which it's supposedly a weakness of his at the NBA level.

I think the FT shooting will open up so much for him. If he can even get it to a passable 60-ish % I think it'll open up his driving game immensely. I also think confidence and rhythm is key to his shooting, and game overall, and him not consistently being in the lineup of given the opportunity when he was healthy has a lot to do with his inconsistencies. I think it's easy to write off his 3pt shot because of the form, but 33% for a 20 year old is totally salvageable, especially considering how he shot it at previous levels. You also look at his best games and he really hit his rhythm and knocked down multiple treys - I think that would happen more consistently as his confidence increased.

I remember last year, when he was just coming off injury, or coming off the bench, he was not playing well, but when he was healthy for a while and getting some momentum, he was playing better across the board.

[R3AL1TY]

Went back and watched Lonzo's DX video from 2017. He shot 73% at the rim in college and was 93%tile on contested 3's. That's some pretty elite college numbers for areas in which it's supposedly a weakness of his at the NBA level.

I think the FT shooting will open up so much for him. If he can even get it to a passable 60-ish % I think it'll open up his driving game immensely. I also think confidence and rhythm is key to his shooting, and game overall, and him not consistently being in the lineup of given the opportunity when he was healthy has a lot to do with his inconsistencies. I think it's easy to write off his 3pt shot because of the form, but 33% for a 20 year old is totally salvageable, especially considering how he shot it at previous levels. You also look at his best games and he really hit his rhythm and knocked down multiple treys - I think that would happen more consistently as his confidence increased.

I remember last year, when he was just coming off injury, or coming off the bench, he was not playing well, but when he was healthy for a while and getting some momentum, he was playing better across the board.

In the video I posted earlier in this thread, it pointed how he makes his 3 pt shots more when he's jumping and landing in the same spot. When he's jumping forward with his shot, this is where he misses them much more. In college, most of his 3s were from side steps and step backs where he doesn't jump forward with his shot. I think if he fixes his jumping mechanics or uses step backs more for his 3s, he can get back to his college level of shooting.

Good point about his health playing a role in his bad play.

[PrimzyBulls81]

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sure,lets bring 30yrs old rookie for PG I like TH,but come on..

[WindyCityBorn]

Nobody would trade Wendell for Lonzo and draft Goga or Hayes at 7 right ?

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Hell no. That is even worse than #7 for Ball. Carter is not going anywhere, especially not for someone like Lonzo Ball.

[kingkirk]

Somebody is going to have to get shots for LaVine, Porter, Markkanen.

What I’m struggling to understand is how bringing in a shoot first PG with questionable playmaking like Coby White fits at all with our existing roster.

It doesn’t.

The only reason you add a score first guy is if he’s too good to refuse putting him on the team. A guy like Garland, White or even Rozier, guys who think they’re great but aren’t, will only take away more than they add.

If Morant isn’t option, Lonzo is the best possible outcome at point guard if going young is of concern. He’d be fantastic for Markkanen and Carter, not mentioning throw full court heaves to LaVine on the break.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I’m in on a Ball trade... I think.

But I’m not sure how to feel about a player who’s best play (by far) comes in transition. Those guys tend to turn into pumpkins in the playoffs. See Ben Simmons.