Bulls resign Ryan Arcidiacono - 3yr / $9m

[Red Larrivee]

RPM is becoming how the Bulls board decides who is a good player or not...even though it doesnt take into consideration injuries, trades made during the season or coaching changes.

jj barea is on your list. so you're certainly not factoring in injuries on a player's value going forward. you also have made the repeated assumption that arci will remain a 3rd stringer. so you're not factoring in trades OR injuries with regard to his future value to the team

are you suggesting that injuries, trades or coaching changes affected the play of arci last year? or depressed the value of some of the names on your list? or WILL affect them going forward?

RPM is a garbage stat...Markkanen had a negative RPM an he's our best player

RPM doesn't necessarily tell you who your best player is; it tells you which players have the most positive impact on your team competing and winning games. Markkanen went from a -1.58 as a rookie to a 0.03 RPM last season; that's good progress. He's a good player, but his lack of defensive value is still holding him back.

[dice]

Career 11 PER.

All-time great season 35.0+
Runaway MVP candidate 30.0-35.0
Strong MVP candidate 27.5-30.0
Weak MVP candidate 25.0-27.5
Definite All-Star 22.5-25.0
Borderline All-Star 20.0-22.5
Second offensive option 18.0-20.0
Third offensive option 16.5-18.0
Slightly above-average player 15.0-16.5
Rotation player 13.0-15.0
Non-rotation player 11.0-13.0
Fringe roster player 9.0-11.0
Player who won't stick in the league 0-9.0

PER is a garbage stat. anybody who has looked into these things even just a little bit knows that. it does NOT factor in defense much and it overvalues inefficient volume scoreres

heavily flawed

and i think you whiffed on the entire point of what i posted, anyway, which is not who the best players are but who gives the most bang for the buck

You whiffed on my point which was that you can come up with a stat to backup whatever opinion you want. You had to try REALLY hard to invent a stat that says Arch is good.

well, that's patently false given that RPM was not invented for ryan arcidiacono

nor does any serious person still use PER

Also, according to your RPM stuff, Arch is a net negative defensively, so I'm not sure where you're trying to go with this.

which is average for a point guard. and combined with his modestly above average offense for a point guard, he was a modestly above average point guard last season. which makes for a damn good backup point guard, which, for a paltry $3 million a year is OUTSTANDING value. which is the point that most people in this thread have been making repeatedly and accurately, but which still doesn't seem to filter into some peoples' brains

those still attempting to claim that this was a bad signing for the bulls clearly have their fingers in their ears

[superdave]

jj barea is on your list. so you're certainly not factoring in injuries on a player's value going forward. you also have made the repeated assumption that arci will remain a 3rd stringer. so you're not factoring in trades OR injuries with regard to his future value to the team

are you suggesting that injuries, trades or coaching changes affected the play of arci last year? or depressed the value of some of the names on your list? or WILL affect them going forward?

RPM is a garbage stat...Markkanen had a negative RPM an he's our best player

RPM doesn't necessarily tell you who your best player is; it tells you which players have the most positive impact on your team competing and winning games. Markkanen went from a -1.58 as a rookie to a 0.03 RPM last season; that's good progress. He's a good player, but his lack of defensive value is still holding him back.

RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

[Red Larrivee]

[
RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

I agree; context is important. You have to understand player roles. Danny Green has a Top-15 RPM because he's ridiculously good at his low volume role. It doesn't mean he's someone you should think about giving more shots to or something. Green is going to be a big help to the Lakers because of it. I would guess that Kawhi's RPM is low because he didn't always go all out during the season, which is a scary thought.

Ultimately, the best teams are built around players who understand their roles and are very good at them. It's why Arcidiacono is a bargain at $3M. He understand his role, is solid at it, and doesn't really hurt your team on either side of the ball.

[R3AL1TY]

I know some prefer Shaq but Ryan spaces the floor better and is pretty elite in assist to turnover ratio. Plus, he gives you good effort on D despite his height and wingspan being a limitation.

They may still bring Shaq into the picture if they are able to move Dunn.

[Stratmaster]

Meh. I just hope that it includes a team option...

He is 25 and it is a 3 year contract at 3 mil per season. Help me understand why a team option is important? Don't get me wrong. Team options are always a good thing. Im just not thinking it makes much difference in this case but i might be missing something.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[bullsnewdynasty]

which is average for a point guard. and combined with his modestly above average offense for a point guard, he was a modestly above average point guard last season. which makes for a damn good backup point guard, which, for a paltry $3 million a year is OUTSTANDING value. which is the point that most people in this thread have been making repeatedly and accurately, but which still doesn't seem to filter into some peoples' brains

those still attempting to claim that this was a bad signing for the bulls clearly have their fingers in their ears

That's fine dude, you know what, I hope you're right about him.

[coldfish]

I still don't understand the consternation. Arci outplayed Dunn last year. At least, the team was clearly better with Arci as PG than Dunn. He was signed on a near minimum 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd. This will have no impact on capspace and the team will have other roster spots open. He will be a 3rd string PG and barely play unless there is an injury.

[play hard]

I honestly am amazed that there are 18 pages of forum board on us resigning RA. He’s backend roster filler.

[dice]

RPM is a garbage stat...Markkanen had a negative RPM an he's our best player

RPM doesn't necessarily tell you who your best player is; it tells you which players have the most positive impact on your team competing and winning games. Markkanen went from a -1.58 as a rookie to a 0.03 RPM last season; that's good progress. He's a good player, but his lack of defensive value is still holding him back.

RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

green sat because his shot abandoned him. and looney played more in the playoffs than he did in the regular season

as for kawhi's RPM being unimpressive, there's a lot of random variation in the stat. typically you need around 5000 minutes of data to feel comfortable with the results (2 full seasons for a starter). kawhi missed a lot of games and didn't play much more than 2000 regular season minutes. a single season can produce some wonky results, but if you have to use a single season, single number stat RPM is the best widely available one

[Chitownbulls]

RPM is a garbage stat...Markkanen had a negative RPM an he's our best player

RPM doesn't necessarily tell you who your best player is; it tells you which players have the most positive impact on your team competing and winning games. Markkanen went from a -1.58 as a rookie to a 0.03 RPM last season; that's good progress. He's a good player, but his lack of defensive value is still holding him back.

RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

Yup....an who is guarding better players? Kris Dunn playing against starters or a 20min bench player (Arcidiacono) going up against 2nd an 3rd units.

RPM is a trash stat...

[Chitownbulls]

Cristiano Felicio finished 15th among ALL PFs in 2016 with a RPM of 1.45...

No wonder why GarPax signed this scrub for 4 years

[Chitownbulls]

they're more or less the same guy and he's pretending that mcconnell being signed for a bit more money is proof that arci was a bad signing

his initial claim was that there are 10-15 guys available for the min who are as good as arci. fine, so name a few!

Jerryd Bayless
Trey Burke
Quinn Cook
Shelvin Mack
Walt Lemon
Devin Harris
Emmanuel Mudiay (just signed 1yr 2.5mil)
JJ Barea (Just signed 1yr vet Minimum)
Ish Smith
Rajon Rondo
Alex Caruso
Tyus Jones
Ian Clark
Raymond Felton
TJ McConnell (just signed 2yrs 7mil)
Jamal Crawford
Jeremy Lin

Sure...here's 17 guys for you. Most of them are still available too. Didnt even mention RedLarrivee's favorite player Jerian Grant lol

You're losing it when you have to quote Quinn Cook.

He was terrible in GS next to Curry and co.

Most of those players are terrible.

Jamal Crawford? -6 BPM. Notorious chucker.

JJ Barea is coming off an achilles rupture.

Bulls fans...Quinn Cook sucks

Signs with LeBron James an the contending LA Lakers the next day lol

[Axolotl]

RPM doesn't necessarily tell you who your best player is; it tells you which players have the most positive impact on your team competing and winning games. Markkanen went from a -1.58 as a rookie to a 0.03 RPM last season; that's good progress. He's a good player, but his lack of defensive value is still holding him back.

RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

Yup....an who is guarding better players? Kris Dunn playing against starters or a 20min bench player (Arcidiacono) going up against 2nd an 3rd units.

RPM is a trash stat...

Arcidiacono was a starter for 32 games this past season, played in 81 games, on average for more than 24 minutes. Dunn started 44 games, played in 46 games, on average for 30 minutes. Their samples against starters are comparable.

[Red Larrivee]

Yup....an who is guarding better players? Kris Dunn playing against starters or a 20min bench player (Arcidiacono) going up against 2nd an 3rd units.

RPM is a trash stat...

When Arch played against starters with the same lineup, the Bulls defense was actually better:

Dunn, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, Lopez: 111.8 oRTG, 116.6 dRTG, -4.8, 204 minutes
Arch, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, Lopez: 126.5 oRTG, 78.9 dRTG, +47.6, 53 minutes

You can attribute some of that to sample size, but it's still a drastic difference. Either way, the two aren't far apart in defensive value:

Dunn's DRPM: -0.47
Arch's DRPM: -0.61

Dunn wins slightly, but it's not significant enough to conclude anything except they add similar value defensively. Dunn has better tools to guard his position and is a preferrable option against more athletic guards. However, Arcidiacono is a smart team defender; he makes up for his lack of physical advantages with BBIQ, positioning, and effort plays.

RPM favors Arcidiacono because he fits the Bulls offense better:

Arch's ORPM: 0.69
Dunn's ORPM: -1.40

Arcidiacono wins here because of his low usage and spot-up shooting ability. Arcidiacono was 96th percentile as a spot-up shooter; Dunn was 9th percentile. Dunn can't play without the ball, which makes him a bad fit with better players who need the ball.

RPM is only a trash stat if you can't make sense of the result. It's not the finality of player value, but it's arguably the best way to measure player impact over time. Dunn's defense is fine, but he's hardly a Patrick Beverley type of defender. He's a poor fit on offense unless you completely cater a lineup to his ball dominance as a poor shooter, poor scorer, and middling playmaker.

[Chitownbulls]

RPM is a nice regular season stat. Danny Green and Kevon Looney are RPM all-stars (strangely Kawhi isn't top 30 and he strikes me as a top 2-3 two-way player in the game)...

Come playoffs its all about matchups. Which is why Green and Looney sat for long stretches despite all those plus minus intangibles.

Yup....an who is guarding better players? Kris Dunn playing against starters or a 20min bench player (Arcidiacono) going up against 2nd an 3rd units.

RPM is a trash stat...

Arcidiacono was a starter for 32 games this past season, played in 81 games, on average for more than 24 minutes. Dunn started 44 games, played in 46 games, on average for 30 minutes. Their samples against starters are comparable.

An where does missing half the season with back an a MCL injury fit in to this?

[Chitownbulls]

Yup....an who is guarding better players? Kris Dunn playing against starters or a 20min bench player (Arcidiacono) going up against 2nd an 3rd units.

RPM is a trash stat...

When Arch played against starters with the same lineup, the Bulls defense was actually better:

Dunn, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, Lopez: 111.8 oRTG, 116.6 dRTG, -4.8, 204 minutes
Arch, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, Lopez: 126.5 oRTG, 78.9 dRTG, +47.6, 53 minutes

You can attribute some of that to sample size, but it's still a drastic difference. Either way, the two aren't far apart in defensive value:

Dunn's DRPM: -0.47
Arch's DRPM: -0.61

Dunn wins slightly, but it's not significant enough to conclude anything except they add similar value defensively. Dunn has better tools to guard his position and is a preferrable option against more athletic guards. However, Arcidiacono is a smart team defender; he makes up for his lack of physical advantages with BBIQ, positioning, and effort plays.

RPM favors Arcidiacono because he fits the Bulls offense better:

Arch's ORPM: 0.69
Dunn's ORPM: -1.40

Arcidiacono wins here because of his low usage and spot-up shooting ability. Arcidiacono was 96th percentile as a spot-up shooter; Dunn was 9th percentile. Dunn can't play without the ball, which makes him a bad fit with better players who need the ball.

Matchups

Dunn would guard Russell Westbrook the whole game.....Ryan Arcidiacono would never get that chance. They would put him on Terrence Furguson or Andre Robison before letting him play Westbrook.

RPM is a trash stat....doesn't take into consideration injuries, coaching changes, player matchups or in season trades.

[Red Larrivee]

Matchups

Dunn would guard Russell Westbrook the whole game.....Ryan Arcidiacono would never get that chance. They would put him on Terrence Furguson or Andre Robison before letting him play Westbrook.

RPM is a trash stat....doesn't take into consideration injuries, coaching changes, player matchups or in season trades.

I think that post went over your head. I acknowledged that Dunn likely matches up better against more athletic point guards. However, that doesn't mean he has better overall defensive value. What you're describing is a situational matchup.

None of the things you named are important to a statistic. There isn't a stat that factors in injuries or coaching changes because none of those are quantitative. Trades don't have any impact aside from allowing you to continue understanding context.

If you're looking for a stat to address individual player matchups, then look at how Dunn fares against any particular player in terms of possessions or FGA. Defensive RPM looks at the average impact of a player on his TEAM'S defense by points allowed per/100.

Dunn is a fine defender, but his defensive impact on the Bulls is not that high to negate how poor of a fit he is on offense.

[Evil_Headband]

Watching the young, inexperienced Coby White in these summer games makes me wonder. Although White should be the better player in the long run, I don’t think he is immediately. If the Bulls truly have an open competition for rotation spots, we might see Arcidiacono win one.

[JDRochholz]

Kirk 2.0. I’ll take it.