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Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition

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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#401 » by TheStig » Mon Aug 5, 2019 12:52 am

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:I think next year will be a struggle and I don't think they'll make it past the 2nd round either unless they just get off to a really good start. Which I view as doubtful.


Yeah, this next year is probably not great either way, and I don't think anyone would blame them for that.

But I think their big 3 game will age well. Steph isn't reliant on athleticism. He is quick, smart, crafty and a great shooter. I don't see that falling off. Klay is very sound fundementally. Draymond is very smart and skilled outside of shooting. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the ECF next year after a move or two and a good mle signing.


I guess we'll find out!

I also think they will pull off a move. If they move Russell and Draymond for picks, they can open up max cap space for another legit star after next year. So I think they have a lot of flexibility going forward.


I don't think you're going to find deals to move these guys for much value.

Also, next season, the Warriors will have 87M tied up in just Klay/Curry/roster charges even if they dumped every single other player on the team for cap room. That would leave a projected 30M left to sign someone, less than the 7 year vet max that any UFAs would have.

Also, no one to sign that year anyway. If you go out to 21 offseason then they will have an increase of 5M in total salary with those two guys and the cap may or may not go up that much so it may be slightly better or slightly worse, but the current estimate is 125M and that would put the 7 year max at 37.5M and the Warriors having around 32M to offer.

I guess, in short, FA doesn't seem likely a likely avenue for improvement for them. Having 30M of space likely doesn't make up for losing Russell, Green, and Looney (plus any of their rookies if they work out).

I think what is more likely for them is to pull off some type of trade. After July 1st, their hard cap rolls off the books, and they will have 1 week to use the Andre Iguodala trade exception and can add 15M or so in salary to their books through a trade. They could maybe through in their 2020 + 2022 or any single pick 2020-2022 and not take back salary for a good player.

I think that is their best bet and probably the avenue they attempt to go down, but I suspect they'll end up with an extremely highly paid seed in the 6-8 range.

Fair points Doug. I thought they'd have more cap space.

Maybe they move Russel and pick for a disgruntled star. He's still very young and will have value.

Also great point about the Iggy trade exemption.

I just think they're a smart org that will spend and will figure something out.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#402 » by dice » Mon Aug 5, 2019 1:43 am

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:meanwhile, the far less valuable klay thompson (same age) is getting a bigger deal, the first year of which he will be paid tens of millions to rehab. and don't get me started on d'angelo russell


I think both of those contracts are horrible too. I think in 2 seasons, GS is going to look really stupid.

and he's one of the most UNDERrated. great players who don't score generally are


It depends on if you think offense and defense are equally valuable. I think efficient offense is a much more scarce resource and that it is much easier to increase defense through scheme and effort while increased offense isn't nearly as easily achieved.

based solely on the defense he might be worth that contract

b wallace age 32-34 3 years/$103 mil (adjusted to projected cap for first 3 years of draymond's deal)
draymond age 30-33 4 years/$100 mil

draymond is easily the better player, will be paid significantly less AND will be younger
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#403 » by kyrv » Mon Aug 5, 2019 2:08 am

R3AL1TY wrote:KD's past statement about the environment around LeBron being toxic seems more valid with Griffin's recent comment about feeling miserable with the Cavs. I wouldn't be surprised if that environment contributed to both K Love's and Tyronn Lue's depression too. The pressure to win a championship, the media expecting Lebron's team to be the favorite outside of the Warriors, the media blaming his teammates exclusively when they lose, and the media and LeBron expecting the FO to get top money players to play with him while LeBron only plays one way all is a lot to deal with if you want to be down with the King.


I think Magic was feeling that toxic environment also.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#404 » by WindyCityBorn » Mon Aug 5, 2019 3:28 am

kyrv wrote:
R3AL1TY wrote:KD's past statement about the environment around LeBron being toxic seems more valid with Griffin's recent comment about feeling miserable with the Cavs. I wouldn't be surprised if that environment contributed to both K Love's and Tyronn Lue's depression too. The pressure to win a championship, the media expecting Lebron's team to be the favorite outside of the Warriors, the media blaming his teammates exclusively when they lose, and the media and LeBron expecting the FO to get top money players to play with him while LeBron only plays one way all is a lot to deal with if you want to be down with the King.


I think Magic was feeling that toxic environment also.


Well Anthony Davis wanted to be Lebron's new bitch badly and he got his wish. Let's see how it goes.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#405 » by dumbell78 » Mon Aug 5, 2019 3:32 am

dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:meanwhile, the far less valuable klay thompson (same age) is getting a bigger deal, the first year of which he will be paid tens of millions to rehab. and don't get me started on d'angelo russell


I think both of those contracts are horrible too. I think in 2 seasons, GS is going to look really stupid.

and he's one of the most UNDERrated. great players who don't score generally are


It depends on if you think offense and defense are equally valuable. I think efficient offense is a much more scarce resource and that it is much easier to increase defense through scheme and effort while increased offense isn't nearly as easily achieved.

based solely on the defense he might be worth that contract

b wallace age 32-34 3 years/$103 mil (adjusted to projected cap for first 3 years of draymond's deal)
draymond age 30-33 4 years/$100 mil

draymond is easily the better player, will be paid significantly less AND will be younger


Its an incredibly reasonable contract and one GSW won out on. I'm also not sure why we are comparing these two guys, they are not even remotely the same.

Wallace was a lifetime center that brought ZERO offensive ability. People can discount Dray for his lack of shooting but his offensive game is light years ahead of a Ben Wallace. All the ppl that say Dray is a liability on offense need to go back to that Portland WCF matchup and pre KD GSW. He is absolutely vital to that offense they run.

In two years time you'll probably be talking about the contracts of Klay and Steph as a hindrance as opposed to Draymond's.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#406 » by dice » Mon Aug 5, 2019 6:32 am

dumbell78 wrote:
dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
I think both of those contracts are horrible too. I think in 2 seasons, GS is going to look really stupid.



It depends on if you think offense and defense are equally valuable. I think efficient offense is a much more scarce resource and that it is much easier to increase defense through scheme and effort while increased offense isn't nearly as easily achieved.

based solely on the defense he might be worth that contract

b wallace age 32-34 3 years/$103 mil (adjusted to projected cap for first 3 years of draymond's deal)
draymond age 30-33 4 years/$100 mil

draymond is easily the better player, will be paid significantly less AND will be younger


Its an incredibly reasonable contract and one GSW won out on. I'm also not sure why we are comparing these two guys, they are not even remotely the same.

Wallace was a lifetime center that brought ZERO offensive ability

that's exactly the point. obviously signing wallace ended up being a big mistake, but it certainly wasn't a grossly above market deal. for a fading (though elite) defender w/ very little offensive ability. he was considered to be worth more at the time than what draymond just got. despite being older
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wasn't a career comparison, clown. you dishonor MJ's legacy
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#407 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 11:49 am

TheStig wrote:I just think they're a smart org that will spend and will figure something out.


I think they've done very little that shows them to be good or bad as a management team so far, if you look at the moves they've made there are a bunch of little things they've done poorly around the margins and a lot of their big successes were paint by numbers successes. However, this is the first time they will need to do exciting things as GMs to keep it going, so we'll see how they do with the new challenge.

They have shown an absolute willingness to spend tons of money in championship years, we'll see their view if the team isn't playing as well though. I don't know that they'll want to pay 60m in luxury tax for non title teams for very long.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#408 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 12:06 pm

dice wrote:based solely on the defense he might be worth that contract

b wallace age 32-34 3 years/$103 mil (adjusted to projected cap for first 3 years of draymond's deal)
draymond age 30-33 4 years/$100 mil

draymond is easily the better player, will be paid significantly less AND will be younger


The deal is very reasonable that Draymond signed which is great news for GS. They're lucky, IMO, that he didn't wait until next year, but being teammates with Cousins and watching Klay/KD go down probably made him think 100 mil looks pretty good.

I think Draymond will decline very quickly though, as I noted, he's not someone that keeps himself in great shape, and he doesn't have a lot of offensive game. His defensive RPM and DPM have both dropped considerably from his best two years ago his averages the years prior to that.

Last year, there was talk about how he lost 23 lbs between the all-star break and the playoffs to get into good shape and was out of shape most of the season. This type of shortcut mentality isn't going to age well. Especially since he's quotes weren't like "I'll never do that again!", they were like "If anyone knows how to get in shape it's me, I wasn't worried".

Will he be better than Ben Wallace? Probably. Ben Wallace was basically completely worthless for 75% of his deal and only so-so for the first year. Green should be much better than that, but Green's weaknesses will be more exposed without KD/Klay there next season and he will need to turn over a new leaf diet wise if he wants to age gracefully.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#409 » by sco » Mon Aug 5, 2019 3:07 pm

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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#410 » by TheStig » Mon Aug 5, 2019 3:43 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:I just think they're a smart org that will spend and will figure something out.


I think they've done very little that shows them to be good or bad as a management team so far, if you look at the moves they've made there are a bunch of little things they've done poorly around the margins and a lot of their big successes were paint by numbers successes. However, this is the first time they will need to do exciting things as GMs to keep it going, so we'll see how they do with the new challenge.

They have shown an absolute willingness to spend tons of money in championship years, we'll see their view if the team isn't playing as well though. I don't know that they'll want to pay 60m in luxury tax for non title teams for very long.

I don't know why you're so down on them. I think they've done a good job.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#411 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 4:50 pm

TheStig wrote:I don't know why you're so down on them. I think they've done a good job.


What moves do you think they made that were good?

If you drafted using NBAdraft.net's board in every draft you'd have had all the same good players as GS and better players with their late 1sts that GS missed on. They inherited Steph Curry, and got Kevin Durant through a once in league history cap loop hole.

The D'Angelo Russell move (we'll see how it turns out both in paying him that salary and in losing an unprotected 1st and Iguodala) is literally the first non-obvious move they have made in their entire tenure, so they might be awesome, but the results of the Warriors don't have a whole lot to do with the GM right now and a whole ton to due with circumstance and luck.

Their margin moves have been a mixed bag (pretty common throughout the league). There's literally no reason, under the context their moves were made, to think they are anything other than middle of the pack. They will now enter a challenging period in the franchise and will have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.

It's just like how Gar Forman co-won executive of the year in 2011. Luck rises all boats. People take a view of things based on results rather than based on results + context and then have biased views of what will happen if the contexts shifts from positive to negative or vice versa.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#412 » by TheStig » Mon Aug 5, 2019 5:52 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:I don't know why you're so down on them. I think they've done a good job.


What moves do you think they made that were good?

If you drafted using NBAdraft.net's board in every draft you'd have had all the same good players as GS and better players with their late 1sts that GS missed on. They inherited Steph Curry, and got Kevin Durant through a once in league history cap loop hole.

The D'Angelo Russell move (we'll see how it turns out both in paying him that salary and in losing an unprotected 1st and Iguodala) is literally the first non-obvious move they have made in their entire tenure, so they might be awesome, but the results of the Warriors don't have a whole lot to do with the GM right now and a whole ton to due with circumstance and luck.

Their margin moves have been a mixed bag (pretty common throughout the league). There's literally no reason, under the context their moves were made, to think they are anything other than middle of the pack. They will now enter a challenging period in the franchise and will have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.

It's just like how Gar Forman co-won executive of the year in 2011. Luck rises all boats. People take a view of things based on results rather than based on results + context and then have biased views of what will happen if the contexts shifts from positive to negative or vice versa.

You can't just write off everything as luck. They kept their cap clean, didn't take on bad contracts, got a killer deal on Steph (more important than the cap spike, they wouldn't have had the money with a maxed Steph), got good vets and drafted ok. Draymond, Looney, Ezeli and Klay were good picks. They only missed on a couple of late firsts. Getting guys who can contribute like Ezeli and looney in the late 20's is good.

They were also one of the only teams who wasn't putting out a huge offer for Love. Most teams would have done Klay for Love in a heartbeat. They also brought in good coaches in Kerr and Adams to help the team.

I think they're well run and will prove so. Championships are more than luck. Krause may have inherited MJ but he also traded for Pip and drafted Kukoc, BJ, Grant and traded for Cartwright. All those guys alone were a strong playoff team after MJ retired.

Whatever you call it, they built a team that got to the finals 5 straight years and won 3 with a 73 win team in there. It's a lot more than luck.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#413 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 7:02 pm

TheStig wrote:You can't just write off everything as luck. They kept their cap clean, didn't take on bad contracts, got a killer deal on Steph (more important than the cap spike, they wouldn't have had the money with a maxed Steph), got good vets and drafted ok. Draymond, Looney, Ezeli and Klay were good picks. They only missed on a couple of late firsts. Getting guys who can contribute like Ezeli and looney in the late 20's is good.

They were also one of the only teams who wasn't putting out a huge offer for Love. Most teams would have done Klay for Love in a heartbeat. They also brought in good coaches in Kerr and Adams to help the team.

I think they're well run and will prove so. Championships are more than luck. Krause may have inherited MJ but he also traded for Pip and drafted Kukoc, BJ, Grant and traded for Cartwright. All those guys alone were a strong playoff team after MJ retired.

Whatever you call it, they built a team that got to the finals 5 straight years and won 3 with a 73 win team in there. It's a lot more than luck.


Lots of people could build a championship team of context gave them Steph Curry and Kevin Durant for free to start with. Either way, we will see what they are made of now that they have to deal with real adversity.

If someone wanted to be particularly argumentative, they could say they couldn't keep Kevin Durant despite the ability to pay him 50 million dollars more than the next team.

Krause's moves of trading for Pip and drafting Kukoc are both alone better than anything that Bob Myers has ever done in his career based on the context of the moves made as both of those moves took considerable vision to execute, Bob Myers hasn't had to done anything yet that required any particular vision.

Again, it's not to say he can't. He now is in a position where that will be required going forward, and we will see how he does. I don't think he'll be awful, but it's not like he negotiated any on the Klay contract, just gave him the absolute max he could. Same thing with Draymond Green and was willing to do the same with KD.

The very first creative risk in his career has been bringing in D'Angelo Russell on a max contract at the cost of Iguodala and a very lightly protected 1st. That could be an excellent or awful mvoe.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#414 » by TheFinishSniper » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:09 pm

dougthonus wrote:
The very first creative risk in his career has been bringing in D'Angelo Russell on a max contract at the cost of Iguodala and a very lightly protected 1st. That could be an excellent or awful mvoe.

It's a good move. Iguodala is old and while would maybe help short term for a next year, Russell actually made All-Star game even as weak All-Star and he is basically entering his prime. He can always flip him for better fit on roster.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#415 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:17 pm

TheFinishSniper wrote:It's a good move. Iguodala is old and while would maybe help short term for a next year, Russell actually made All-Star game even as weak All-Star and he is basically entering his prime. He can always flip him for better fit on roster.


:dontknow:

Many people feel his contract is very poor. If he has a bad first three months then you won't be able to flip him for a positive asset unless he has a later uptick. If he has a great first three months then this can be a fantastic move. We'll see what D-Lo does.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#416 » by TheStig » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:17 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:You can't just write off everything as luck. They kept their cap clean, didn't take on bad contracts, got a killer deal on Steph (more important than the cap spike, they wouldn't have had the money with a maxed Steph), got good vets and drafted ok. Draymond, Looney, Ezeli and Klay were good picks. They only missed on a couple of late firsts. Getting guys who can contribute like Ezeli and looney in the late 20's is good.

They were also one of the only teams who wasn't putting out a huge offer for Love. Most teams would have done Klay for Love in a heartbeat. They also brought in good coaches in Kerr and Adams to help the team.

I think they're well run and will prove so. Championships are more than luck. Krause may have inherited MJ but he also traded for Pip and drafted Kukoc, BJ, Grant and traded for Cartwright. All those guys alone were a strong playoff team after MJ retired.

Whatever you call it, they built a team that got to the finals 5 straight years and won 3 with a 73 win team in there. It's a lot more than luck.


Lots of people could build a championship team of context gave them Steph Curry and Kevin Durant for free to start with. Either way, we will see what they are made of now that they have to deal with real adversity.

If someone wanted to be particularly argumentative, they could say they couldn't keep Kevin Durant despite the ability to pay him 50 million dollars more than the next team.

Krause's moves of trading for Pip and drafting Kukoc are both alone better than anything that Bob Myers has ever done in his career based on the context of the moves made as both of those moves took considerable vision to execute, Bob Myers hasn't had to done anything yet that required any particular vision.

Again, it's not to say he can't. He now is in a position where that will be required going forward, and we will see how he does. I don't think he'll be awful, but it's not like he negotiated any on the Klay contract, just gave him the absolute max he could. Same thing with Draymond Green and was willing to do the same with KD.

The very first creative risk in his career has been bringing in D'Angelo Russell on a max contract at the cost of Iguodala and a very lightly protected 1st. That could be an excellent or awful mvoe.

Doug, they didn't get KD for free. They built a team and system and managed the cap incredibly well to do it. Most teams with 3 stars cannot afford to add another even with a cap spike. Before they got KD, they built a very good system, 3 stars, coach, org, 73 win team that had managed their cap space well to get him.

I really don't think it's right to discount everything they did because they had Steph on the roster. I also think pulling in KD is a better move than drafting Pip or Kukoc.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#417 » by TheStig » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:21 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheFinishSniper wrote:It's a good move. Iguodala is old and while would maybe help short term for a next year, Russell actually made All-Star game even as weak All-Star and he is basically entering his prime. He can always flip him for better fit on roster.


:dontknow:

Many people feel his contract is very poor. If he has a bad first three months then you won't be able to flip him for a positive asset unless he has a later uptick. If he has a great first three months then this can be a fantastic move. We'll see what D-Lo does.

His contract is really not bad. It's 4/117. That's reasonable for a 20+ppg all star. I also think he'll look good as a #2 option next to Steph. The concern will be defensively.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#418 » by TheFinishSniper » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:24 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheFinishSniper wrote:It's a good move. Iguodala is old and while would maybe help short term for a next year, Russell actually made All-Star game even as weak All-Star and he is basically entering his prime. He can always flip him for better fit on roster.


:dontknow:

Many people feel his contract is very poor. If he has a bad first three months then you won't be able to flip him for a positive asset unless he has a later uptick. If he has a great first three months then this can be a fantastic move. We'll see what D-Lo does.

So you saying they will be unable to flip Russell? I mean unless he declines sure, but if he has similar year nope. There is always a deal out there. And many teams still need decent PG.

I tell you if even if he isnt great first 3 months I bet you Suns will have huge interest in him. We could too. But that depends on Coby. Maybe Magic or Pacers too.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#419 » by dougthonus » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:32 pm

TheFinishSniper wrote:So you saying they will be unable to flip Russell? I mean unless he declines sure, but if he has similar year nope. There is always a deal out there. And many teams still need decent PG.

I tell you if even if he isnt great first 3 months I bet you Suns will have huge interest in him. We could too. But that depends on Coby. Maybe Magic or Pacers too.


I'm saying that Russell was a pretty low efficiency volume scorer last year and those guys traditionally aren't worth max contracts and remaining a low efficiency volume scorer may leave him in the same position of being a bad contract even if his statistical output is the same.

It is worth noting that Russell was passed over by tons of teams with cap room prior to this deal happening. I think there's a very good chance that he wouldn't have gotten a max had it not been for the Warriors stepping up, and they did so because he was literally the only player they could bring in via this method and had no other options and there has already been speculation that he will be traded prior to ever playing a game for something better than Russell.

The logic being applied here is:
1: The Warriors paid a guy more than anyone else that we know of was willing to.
2: The Warriors will now trade that guy for something more valuable than that guy.

That just doesn't pass any logical scrutiny IMO.
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Re: Around The NBA: Off-Season Edition 

Post#420 » by TheFinishSniper » Mon Aug 5, 2019 8:39 pm

dougthonus wrote:
I'm saying that Russell was a pretty low efficiency volume scorer last year and those guys traditionally aren't worth max contracts.

Maybe, but there are always teams who rebuild, need PG and can absorb that kind of deal without salary cap issues. Just like we did with Otto. You can't say Otto is fully worth his salary. But it doesnt hurt us, we needed a wing, size and it was good fit.

And ofcourse there is always situation and matter of role. Just like Russell did lot better with Nets than Lakers.
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