KC Johnson: Kris Dunn for Justin Holiday S&T discussed

[coldfish]

FYI, Chris Dunn is 25yrs old and doesnt turn 26 until march. He also has been in the league for 3 years, whereas tyus jones has been in the league for 4 years. He also shot better from 3 than jones last year. Crazy. Dunn’s 2 seasons as a starter have been derailed by injury. He does actually have potential to blossom. It will not happen in Chicago with the direction they are moving, but it is surprising that his value is so low.

Dunn is 3 years older and will be a restricted free agent after this season where if he plays well, teams will have to either pay him or watch him walk.

He is effectively either:
- A 1 year emergency back up PG who hasn't been particularly good to date
- A $5m expiring contract
Neither of those things has a lot of value.

Personally, I think the Bulls should just use his expiring status and use him and Valentine to take on a more expensive guy on a 2 year deal. Not a fan of Holiday. He was awful last year and a big part of the chucker brigade.

And yet Jones just got a 3 yr 24 million deal. Dunn is a better player with more potential imho. Not sure he is effectively what you suggest. He still has upside, players are not always finished products at age 25. And he has less nba experience than jones. I realize he was a 4 year college player, but college experience is not pro experience.

That's the problem with Dunn. In a year, if he plays well he is going to get a good offer. If he doesn't, then you got nothing. With Tyus Jones, the team making the offer would know that they control him for 3 years at a known price.

Regardless of college experience, most players usually peak out around age 27. Since Dunn is largely dependent on his athleticism, I don't see why he would be any different.

Age and PER
Dunn
22 8.1
23 14.5
24 12.5

Jones
19 11.2
20 13.8
21 14.2
22 13.7

Neither of these guys is good. Jones just got a sub MLE offer. Even then, I don't see how Dunn wouldn't have significantly less value than him.

[RedBulls23]

Wow...A top 5 pick and such a prospect that Thibs and GarPax were fighting over him during the Butler trade. How low has he fallen...for Justin Holiday.??

Thibs didn't want to give up Dunn and GarPax apparently wanted only Dunn for giving up Butler. I am still shocked at how it turned out for Dunn....he looked like the best prospect in the Butler trade of the 3 guys.

None of this seems correct. Unless you forgot to green font.

Thibs barely played Dunn and I remember it being LaVine that the Wolves didn't want to part with which is why the Wolves wanted the 16th pick in return.

Also, Lauri was always looked as the best prospect in return.

[ChettheJet]

So if I read all of this right. Dunn isn't good enough for the Bulls so that's why they signed two other PGs after drafting one but he has value if they're trading him so he's worth more than Justin Holiday. What this type of deal is about is cutting your losses and moving on from a guy that didn't work out.

Whatever they can get for Dunn it just housekeeping to get something for a guy they thought would be around for a long time. Dunn's major problem was getting injured. Just when he was penciled in for a starting role, just when he was going to be able to show that he could lead the team on the floor, improve his shooting he'd get hurt and the recovery set back any progress he made. That combined with everybody else getting hurt meant that he never played with a lineup where he was the 3rd or 4th best guy on the floor and could play the leadership role and not have to be the go to guy.

But it should register that Dunn was a #5 pick, the Bull were looking at him when MINN picked him and this is the player he is going into year 4 after being one of the a key pieces in the Butler trade of a max superstar, now he's a guy they hope to get a couple of second round picks for. This is why you don't want to trade your roster for 2,3,4 first round picks because there's no way to predict how those picks are going to turn out and a few years down the road when you were expecting them to be the cornerstone of your franchise, you're staring a major disappointment right in the face.

[Mech Engineer]

Wow...A top 5 pick and such a prospect that Thibs and GarPax were fighting over him during the Butler trade. How low has he fallen...for Justin Holiday.??

Thibs didn't want to give up Dunn and GarPax apparently wanted only Dunn for giving up Butler. I am still shocked at how it turned out for Dunn....he looked like the best prospect in the Butler trade of the 3 guys.

None of this seems correct. Unless you forgot to green font.

Thibs barely played Dunn and I remember it being LaVine that the Wolves didn't want to part with which is why the Wolves wanted the 16th pick in return.

Also, Lauri was always looked as the best prospect in return.

You are talking about the 2nd year of Thibs in Minnesota. When Thibs first went there, there was a lot of rumors about sending Butler to Minnesota during draft time for the 5th pick(Dunn).

You are right in the 2nd year when the actual trade happened, they didn't want to give up Lavine. But, the center piece of that trade was Dunn and GarPax wouldn't have given up Butler for 7th pick/Lavine only.

[FriedRise]

I'd subscribe to the notion that Justin Holiday is a fine player if his role was significantly reduced to a 3&D backup wing player. We have evidence that he only started to look horrific when Hoiberg asked him to be the primary scorer in the starting lineup (i.e. the LaVine role when Zach was rehabbing). Fred was preparing the team to get used to play with someone like Zach, but obviously that's asking too much and Justin just did what he was most comfortable with (shoot 3s... and lots and lots of them without care) earning the reputation around this board as an inefficient chucker. Fred's offensive system of "shoot whenever you think you're open" was also bad, generally speaking, as it led to a lot of bad shot selection regardless of what the shot clock said. Boylen seems to encourage guys to actually work the ball first to see if they can get a better shot.

But what's troubling is that once he was traded to the Grizzlies, his numbers actually regressed. Not sure if it was a product of learning a new system or if he was still doing his best Zach impression there in Memphis (didn't watch a lot of Grizzlies games), but he shot worse and was just overall a worse player. He still took the same amount of shots per 36 as he did in Chicago, but his PER plunged from 11 to 8.9 and his TS% went from .53 to .51. He was also worse on both ends of the court. You're usually out of the league when you're a journeyman that age and your numbers are this low.

It really is a toss-up. We can bank on Dunn possibly getting better because it's a contract year and maybe he'll thrive off the bench in that Terry Rozier / Marcus Smart role, but we know he'll get less playing time and a very limited chance to prove his worth. Holiday would be the "safer" route I guess if you're thinking about getting *any* sort of value for Dunn, but it's not a clear-cut advantage.

I'd probably opt to keep Dunn and roll the dice with him to see if he can carve himself a role as a backup guard.

[D_GoLow]

Sounds like Dunn is a back up plan for Memphis

[MGB8]

Looks like this is dead. Tyus Jones signed by Griz.

To an offer sheet

Minnesota could match it

It's probably more than they would ideally want to pay Jones, but given the lack of PGs out there on the FA market and the Wolves lack of depth at the PG spot, my expectation is that they will match.

[cjbulls]

Do a S&T with Atlanta Dunn for Vince Carter

If you watched the first summer league game Carter I was part of the panel but he is waiting for the call from LA.

Yes, Vince was one of these summer league broadcasts and said he wants to play. Minutes are his primary goal rather than latching onto a contender or just serving as a mentor. LA seems like a perfect match for him. Bulls are not a good fit unless they plan to shelve Hutch and Val.

[weneeda2guard]

Holiday is fine for w piece off the bench. He just not a starter. He is someone that can step in and fill some starter minutes if porter goes down. East is tight and tough and 1 injury can decide if you make it in as 7th or 8th seed. And as much as "let them develop" gets tossed around, the development that is needed for lauri and lavine and porter jr and Carter Jr, is playoff experience. They have learned about all they are going to learn being a lottery team. If we want any shot of lavine and lauri being the dynamic duo that contends they need the playoffs now and from here on.

[bigworld2017]

Holiday is good enough to be our 3rd SF and get limited minutes. He's an insurance policy against an injury to Porter or Hutch. He's familiar with the organization. They are familiar with him. Dunn doesn't fit into our long term (or short term) plans. GarPax would be doing the kid a favor if they could move him to a team where he'd at least have a role as the 1st PG off the bench. Let him try to carve a niche in the league and save his NBA career. Even bench players can make a pretty nice living in the NBA if they can stick around for a decade. I don't dislike Dunn. He just doesn't play well opposite of Lavine. If we keep Dunn and he gets minutes it will come at White's expense unless Sato gets minutes at SG and maybe even SF.

If we don't trade Dunn I'd be interested in how he can share the floor with Satoransky playing SG. Maybe there is some combination that could work with Dunn? But my first preference, for us and for Dunn himself, would be for us to move him somewhere where he'd have a viable shot as a primary back-up PG.

[sco]

Yeah, the whole Dunn argument reminds me just how much the whole "early pick halo" psychological effect works in the NBA. If I were a GM, I think I could do pretty well living off arbitraging those guys.

[Mech Engineer]

Yeah, the whole Dunn argument reminds me just how much the whole "early pick halo" psychological effect works in the NBA. If I were a GM, I think I could do pretty well living off arbitraging those guys.

Yeah...sometimes more than the real talent, it is when you can sell off the draft pick. I think Dunn is a perfect example. A lot of hope because of his NBA build and if the Bulls were in a better state of competition, they could have sold him off for a good player before he played a minute with the Bulls. That's what Hinkie was doing when he traded MCW. Most of these draft picks are like a new car. Once it leaves the dealership, the depreciation is a lot except for a few high end cars which also drop rapidly in a year(in the NBA).

[Rose2Boozer]

No. Let's just hold onto Dunn, and dump him after the trade deadline for a 2Way player.

[TheSuzerain]

Tyus Jones is significantly better than Kris Dunn.

[navdeep_singh]

I'd subscribe to the notion that Justin Holiday is a fine player if his role was significantly reduced to a 3&D backup wing player.

But what's troubling is that once he was traded to the Grizzlies, his numbers actually regressed. Not sure if it was a product of learning a new system or if he was still doing his best Zach impression there in Memphis (didn't watch a lot of Grizzlies games), but he shot worse and was just overall a worse player. He still took the same amount of shots per 36 as he did in Chicago, but his PER plunged from 11 to 8.9 and his TS% went from .53 to .51. He was also worse on both ends of the court. You're usually out of the league when you're a journeyman that age and your numbers are this low.

It really is a toss-up. We can bank on Dunn possibly getting better because it's a contract year and maybe he'll thrive off the bench in that Terry Rozier / Marcus Smart role, but we know he'll get less playing time and a very limited chance to prove his worth. Holiday would be the "safer" route I guess if you're thinking about getting *any* sort of value for Dunn, but it's not a clear-cut advantage.

I'd probably opt to keep Dunn and roll the dice with him to see if he can carve himself a role as a backup guard.

At this point, even a limited bench role still screams TANK COMMANDER-G League-sieve who clanks wide open looks. C Hutch and Denzel can handle back up 3 just fine.

It would be hugely disappointing to bring him back. He straight out sucks garbage, at this point. Notice how much better we got when actually had a decent wing (OPJ)? That wasn't a mistake.
Don't go backwards, please. Play C-Hutch and Denzel. They have a lot more to offer than this useless TANK COMMANDER.

[Proven_Winner]

Wow...A top 5 pick and such a prospect that Thibs and GarPax were fighting over him during the Butler trade. How low has he fallen...for Justin Holiday.??

Thibs didn't want to give up Dunn and GarPax apparently wanted only Dunn for giving up Butler. I am still shocked at how it turned out for Dunn....he looked like the best prospect in the Butler trade of the 3 guys.

I guess judgement is still out for his career but I’ll eat crow and admit I thought he was setup perfectly to be John wall especially with his pit bull defense. I know injuries haven’t been kind but even beyond that his weaknesses are unrelated to injury and hurt US more than help. He has a place in the league but he could’ve/should’ve been better by now.

[Proven_Winner]

I’ll only be ok with holiday as long as he promises to not just pull shots. Even if it was a tank order it’s just a energy killer for a guy who’s not that good to just pull shots early like he’s Kobe.

Aside from that he’s a really decent defender all around and hustles. Definitely a guy you can throw in to give someone a breather without losing much. I’d be interested to see him and hutch off the bench together. Wonder if they could lockdown the bench 2 and 3.

[KCFITTED]

Avery Bradley anyone? I'd rather have him than Holiday.

[jacoby1us]

I don't want Holiday back, we have traded this guy away like two times already. WTF!
Don't we have Chandler Hutchinson as a back-up?

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

I never want to see Justin Holiday in a Bulls uniform again. Just keep Dunn then.