How Many Wins this Year?

pipfan · Post #1 » by **pipfan** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:14 am

Now that our roster seems set (Dunn being the only real ?), how many wins will we have this year?

samwana · Post #2 » by **samwana** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:19 am

I think 30-34. We will play a more fun style of basketball, but and win 10 more games than last year. It will be fun to watch the team play.

I'm not sure we will be as healthy as we want to be and through injuries we will not reach the playoffs. Luck will be on our side in the lottery though.

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Onibuh · Post #3 » by **Onibuh** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:52 am

3.
Need to stay healthy for it to happen.

Axolotl · Post #4 » by **Axolotl** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:04 am

I'd be fine with the below coming true, but I still voted 30-34

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-projections-for-the-2019-20-nba-season/

bulls_troy · Post #5 » by **bulls_troy** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:29 am

On the assumption we can stay relatively healthy, I see 40-44 wins

pipfan · Post #6 » by **pipfan** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:56 am

I think we can win a bunch of games in the 2nd half of the year-assuming we don't tank. A few teams in both conferences will give up and start hunting for losses-easy pickings for a young, deep team that wants to make the playoffs

Obviously, the last 2 years we were one of those teams trying to lose

SpinninHouse · Post #7 » by **SpinninHouse** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:57 am

Realistically I think we’re a 35 win team. I don’t see us winning less than 30 or, if the stars align, more than 38-40.

I think 35 is a realistic bet.

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Post #8 » by **DuckIII** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:33 pm

I predict 38 (35-39). I have us just missing the playoffs with late lottery odds.

League Circles · Post #9 » by **League Circles** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:35 pm

40-44, cause why not be optimistic......

Post #10 » by **coldfish** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:44 pm

45

I'm probably one of the more optimistic guys but my 45 is based around good but not perfect health. IMO, last year wasn't reflective of the team's talent at all. Between coaching changes, scheme changes, injuries and a rotating G-league bench it was just horrible.

I do think that all the young guys got a glimpse of the conditioning needed to actually be an NBA player last year. Hopefully they come into camp in a much better condition to handle the load.

Beyond that, I really like the fit of Sato and Thad to this team. Really underrated picks. The advanced metrics on them were fantastic AND they fit the existing players really well.

I don't like the deep bench at the 2-4 spot. Hopefully that can get addressed or the team is healthy enough that its not an issue.

Edit: Just for reference, a 45 win team is one that has a rating differential (offense - defense) of around +1. There really isn't that much of a difference between teams around 0.500. OTOH, a 55 win team is a differential around +6. People underestimate just how much better a 50 some win team is than a 40 some.

Hangtime84 · Post #11 » by **Hangtime84** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:46 pm

we already had this poll i guess I'll do it again every two weeks. 45 'IF HEALTHY'

sco · Post #12 » by **sco** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:11 pm

If you look at teams from a top-down talent perspective, the Bulls look weak. They arguably don't have a top 20 player on the roster, where a number of teams have 2 of them.

Alternatively, if you look at the team from a bottoms-up perspective, we may be top 1/3. What I mean by that is sort of a weakest link test - what % of minutes are likely played by near G-league talent. We've added some meaningful depth this offseason such that if you look at our 10 man rotation, it's vastly different than last season. And I will go one step further and say that our reason for losing the majority of our games was more due to the performance of our bench and not our starters (who, for the limited stretch of relative health did pretty well against most teams).

That all said, IMO our record will depend on 2 factors which will drive 20+ w/l difference:

1) Health. Having our starters healthy for 70+ games each will make most of the difference. True for most teams, but because we are not star dependent as much as others, we need all of our guys playing to win.

2) Development. With lots of young guys who are (optimistically) on an upward career trajectory, it's hard to tell what those improvements can do for us. Will Zach and Lauri become better defenders? Will WCJ be able to stay out of foul trouble? Those are big factors for success.

FriedRise · Post #13 » by **FriedRise** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:33 pm

If Lauri, LaVine, and a number of our Top 8 rotation players miss a significant amount of time: 17-23 wins (worst case scenario, another throwaway season when we don't get to evaluate our core. we have to give guys like Blakeney, Felicio, and 2-way contract players significant playing time because no one else is available).

If both Lauri and LaVine miss a significant amount of time but everyone else stays healthy: 22-28 wins (no real offensive threats on the court, but we're putting lineups consisting of average to below average players. We'll be outmatched on most nights, but can steal games where the other team plays down to the level of the competition).

If either Lauri or LaVine misses a significant amount of time but everyone else stays healthy: 27-33 wins (either one of them + our supporting cast).

If both Lauri and LaVine stay healthy but our Top 8 rotation players miss a significant amount of time: 29-35 wins (Lauri and LaVine need more help!).

If Lauri and LaVine plus our Top 8 rotation players stay healthy: 35-42 wins (best case scenario).

Shill · Post #14 » by **Shill** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:52 pm

panthermark · Post #15 » by **panthermark** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:24 pm

I've been saying mid to high 30's.

37

Flopper · Post #16 » by **Flopper** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:19 pm

30-34 seems appropriate since this team will likely struggle defensively again. At this point OPJ and Thad are the only plus defenders that can be counted on for extended minutes. Maybe add WCJ to that list if he can come back healthy and get up to speed quickly.

poolshark52 · Post #17 » by **poolshark52** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:30 pm

35 is probably reasonable

InsideInfo · Post #18 » by **InsideInfo** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:49 pm

I think 35 plus is realistic when you factor in the fact that we have so many games against bottom 10 teams bc most of the bad teams are in the east.

cjbulls · Post #19 » by **cjbulls** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:20 pm

This is a .500 roster or better if everyone stays healthy. But players are already injured so who knows.

The Explorer · Post #20 » by **The Explorer** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:30 pm

I think it will be in the mid 30s. Markkanen showed that when given a lot of minutes and responsibility he gets severe fatigue. That's going to be a big problem if your first or second best player is not durable enough to handle the rigors of the nba season. I only trust Porter and Lavine to consistently produce and be healthy, and even those 2 are not the most reliable in health. So I can't say Bulls will win anything beyond 38 games.

How many wins?