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Please help me out here

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Please help me out here 

Post#1 » by transplant » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:13 pm

As I've admitted many times, I watch a lot of Bulls games, but not many other NBA games. When I look at the Bulls roster, I see Satoransky as being an average starting PG (13-17 in the league). LaVine ought to be in that range as well, hopefully at the top end. I see Porter as being above average (8-12) and expect Markkanen to also be in that range. Carter is kind of a wild card at center. He could be below average (18-22), average or above.

The Bulls bench was pure horrid last season...easily bottom 5. With players like Young, White, Hutchison, Kornet and Gafford, the Bulls bench figures to be no worse than slightly below average.

I don't put much weight on coaching, but I'd rate the Bulls as below average.

I guess what I'm seeing when I add it all up is a very average team. Vegas has them at 30.5 wins and if i was a betting man, I'd be all about the over.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#2 » by ImSlower » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:21 pm

Vegas is expecting some major injury or bust from at least one or two of our promising guys. I simply cant see us winning only 29 without someone missing most the season, or significant failures from several of our projected starters.

I also feel like the over is a safe bet, for now. 36, 37 wins is my expectation, with some nice national press about our swuad, balanced out by some guys here harping on Treadmill team.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#3 » by TheSuzerain » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:23 pm

Markkanen was far worse than where you have him ranked last year. And while I think he's well positioned to take a leap forward this year, it's not a gimme.

I like Sato, but he's likely below average as a starting PG.

The bench is probably going to be crap other than Thad Young.

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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#4 » by Am2626 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:40 pm

ImSlower wrote:Vegas is expecting some major injury or bust from at least one or two of our promising guys. I simply cant see us winning only 29 without someone missing most the season, or significant failures from several of our projected starters.

I also feel like the over is a safe bet, for now. 36, 37 wins is my expectation, with some nice national press about our swuad, balanced out by some guys here harping on Treadmill team.


This team won 22 games last year. Even getting to 36 wins is a 14 game improvement which I think is a little bit of a stretch. I think 32-33 wins is more realistic. Maybe the Bulls get some lotto luck and get a top draft pick.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#5 » by WookieOnRitalin » Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:03 pm

transplant wrote:As I've admitted many times, I watch a lot of Bulls games, but not many other NBA games. When I look at the Bulls roster, I see Satoransky as being an average starting PG (13-17 in the league). LaVine ought to be in that range as well, hopefully at the top end. I see Porter as being above average (8-12) and expect Markkanen to also be in that range. Carter is kind of a wild card at center. He could be below average (18-22), average or above.

The Bulls bench was pure horrid last season...easily bottom 5. With players like Young, White, Hutchison, Kornet and Gafford, the Bulls bench figures to be no worse than slightly below average.

I don't put much weight on coaching, but I'd rate the Bulls as below average.

I guess what I'm seeing when I add it all up is a very average team. Vegas has them at 30.5 wins and if i was a betting man, I'd be all about the over.



Until we have reason to be proven otherwise, this is a 30-35 win team at best. It is a collection of potential and nothing more. The Bulls were a horrid defensive unit last year and one of the worst offensively. Until the team learns to stop anybody, there is no potential for this team to make the playoffs. There is simply just not enough proven talent to convince me that they can simply outscore people.

What I see, generally, is a star that points upward from last year. In theory, they should not be as bad simply because you really couldn't get much worse.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#6 » by transplant » Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:04 pm

TheSuzerain wrote:Markkanen was far worse than where you have him ranked last year. And while I think he's well positioned to take a leap forward this year, it's not a gimme.

I like Sato, but he's likely below average as a starting PG.

The bench is probably going to be crap other than Thad Young.

Go against Vegas at your own peril.

19-9 when you’re presumably ascending your development curve says above average to me, but I appreciate your opinion.


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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#7 » by nomorezorro » Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:16 pm

currently seeing the bulls win o/u between 30.5 and 33 depending on the book.

i think the over is a pretty appealing bet on the low end of the spectrum, but they won 22 games last year, their best players are injury prone, their other best players are being integrated into a new system, they're still really young overall and their coach famously inspired a mutiny last year. lots of ways things could go wrong
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#8 » by nomorezorro » Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:16 pm

oh, and also we could be motivated to trade maybe our best player from a net-impact perspective near the trade deadline if we're worried about him bolting this offseason
WookieOnRitalin wrote:Game 1. It's where the series is truly 0-0.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#9 » by transplant » Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:37 pm

nomorezorro wrote:
i think the over is a pretty appealing bet on the low end of the spectrum, but they won 22 games last year, their best players are injury prone,

The 22 wins are pretty meaningless to me. They were holding players out in order to lose.

Also, I don’t believe in injury-prone for any player under the age of 30.


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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#10 » by coldfish » Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:38 pm

transplant wrote:As I've admitted many times, I watch a lot of Bulls games, but not many other NBA games. When I look at the Bulls roster, I see Satoransky as being an average starting PG (13-17 in the league). LaVine ought to be in that range as well, hopefully at the top end. I see Porter as being above average (8-12) and expect Markkanen to also be in that range. Carter is kind of a wild card at center. He could be below average (18-22), average or above.

The Bulls bench was pure horrid last season...easily bottom 5. With players like Young, White, Hutchison, Kornet and Gafford, the Bulls bench figures to be no worse than slightly below average.

I don't put much weight on coaching, but I'd rate the Bulls as below average.

I guess what I'm seeing when I add it all up is a very average team. Vegas has them at 30.5 wins and if i was a betting man, I'd be all about the over.


Last I checked, the betting was so heavy for the over that the odds were shifted. It was like -125 or something on the over and +105 on the under. Basically, bettors agree with you.

I'm not a gambler but I actually feel so strongly about the over that I looked into doing it as easy money. I just tried to find the same odds I found before and failed but I did find sites that have moved the number on the Bulls. This site has them at 32.5 and the guy is pushing the under:
Chicago Bulls UNDER 32.5 (-110)

Gone are the glory years of the Chicago Bulls from the Jordan and Rose eras and now this franchise is in a constant state of rebuild even though they keep adding pieces each season. The Bulls didn’t really add anyone of significance outside of point guard Coby White in the draft and Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky in free agency.

While I like these additions, none of them move the needle defensively and that’s where the Bulls were a train wreck last season. They ranked in the bottom five in both opponent field-goal percentage and three-point percentage and finished tied for the worst home record in the NBA at 9-32 SU in 41 games. I could see them winning 25 to 29 games but 33 wins for the Bulls – even in the Eastern Conference – sounds absurd.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/nba-season-win-totals-betting-odds

So, basically people who know nothing about what happened in Chicago assuming the same thing is going to happen again.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#11 » by musiqsoulchild » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:17 pm

Transplant, take the bet. You'll win money on it. Bulls are gonna finish at 39 games won.

The Bulls play 16 games against their Division mates. That's Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit and Cavs.

More importantly, we play Eastern Conference teams 52 times versus 30 games against the Western Conference.

I am not seeing what Vegas is seeing.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#12 » by jacoby1us » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:35 pm

musiqsoulchild wrote:Transplant, take the bet. You'll win money on it. Bulls are gonna finish at 39 games won.

The Bulls play 16 games against their Division mates. That's Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit and Cavs.

More importantly, we play Eastern Conference teams 52 times versus 30 games against the Western Conference.

I am not seeing what Vegas is seeing.


We are the second worse team in our division compared to the Cavs. We will struggle against subpar teams like Charlotte, NYC, and even DC.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#13 » by coldfish » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:23 am

Bulls were 7-8 when Otto played.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071548

Even then, you had Selden, Felicio, Dunn, Arci and Shaq getting lots of minutes. To that team that went 7-8, the Bulls will add Wendell, Coby, Tomas and Thad. Basically, half of the 8 man rotation for a team that went 7-8 will be upgraded.

I suppose the valid questions are:
- Is 7-8 with Otto a fluke?
- Are Wendell, Coby, Tomas and Thad a legit upgrade to Rolo, Arci, Dunn and Selden?
- Can the Bulls maintain their regular rotation for most of the season and not get devastated by injuries like last year?
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#14 » by CBS7 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:45 am

"last year"
"last year"
"last year"

40% of our minutes last year were given to players that are somewhere between 10-12th men and in the G-League.
OPJ played 15 games. Lauri, Lavine, WCJ, Hutch all missed major time. We added decent depth. Barring injuries, which IS a concern, this team should be much better. Last season has no bearing on what they will do next season.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#15 » by Betta Bulleavit » Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:03 am

I’m definitely taking the over on this one. While I get that they were only a 22 win team last season, there is a lot to be said about the circumstances under which they compiled that record. Injuries. Guys being held out longer than they would have had we not been tanking. The mid season coaching change. These were all things that contributed to that final mark. Had we just played legit lineups all season, this team could have easily won 6-7 more games.

So when I look at this year’s team, I am using 28-29 wins as a baseline. Then I look at internal improvements, players added etc. and I expect another 6 wins or so based on that. So that would put us in the 34- 40 win range. 34 being on the low end and 40 being the high.
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Post#16 » by Ctownbulls » Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:21 am

ImSlower wrote:Vegas is expecting some major injury or bust from at least one or two of our promising guys. I simply cant see us winning only 29 without someone missing most the season, or significant failures from several of our projected starters.

I also feel like the over is a safe bet, for now. 36, 37 wins is my expectation, with some nice national press about our swuad, balanced out by some guys here harping on Treadmill team.
Vegas isn't expecting a major injury.

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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#17 » by Ctownbulls » Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:23 am

I haven't seen anyone talk about the loss of Lopez who was far and away the best center on the team. I know everyone loves Carter (as do I) but he wasn't that great last year and is returning from 2 injuries.

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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#18 » by johnnyvann840 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:23 am

musiqsoulchild wrote:Transplant, take the bet. You'll win money on it. Bulls are gonna finish at 39 games won.

The Bulls play 16 games against their Division mates. That's Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit and Cavs.

More importantly, we play Eastern Conference teams 52 times versus 30 games against the Western Conference.

I am not seeing what Vegas is seeing.


You should bet it. Are you going to pay the loss if he loses? Never encourage another person to gamble their money. Especially on this basketball team. If you like the bet so much, make it yourself.

We had a very similar thread last year at about this time and everybody was spouting off about how it was "free money". Vegas was giving a gift to everyone who bet the over on the Bulls at 27.5. Mark Shanowski even wrote an article telling everyone to go out and grab some of that free cash. You can make every excuse in the World for why they only won 22 games, but the fact is that they only won 22 games. So much can go wrong with this team this season and we are dealing with an unknown.

The handicappers see the Bulls go to guy in the clutch being one of the worst clutch performers in the entire NBA, if not the worst. They aren't stupid and they aren't giving money away, so play at your own risk. I wouldn't touch it although if I were forced to make a bet I would take the over at 30.5. If the line has moved as CF has said, I wouldn't touch it at 32.5.
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#19 » by Betta Bulleavit » Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:00 am

johnnyvann840 wrote:
musiqsoulchild wrote:Transplant, take the bet. You'll win money on it. Bulls are gonna finish at 39 games won.

The Bulls play 16 games against their Division mates. That's Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit and Cavs.

More importantly, we play Eastern Conference teams 52 times versus 30 games against the Western Conference.

I am not seeing what Vegas is seeing.


You should bet it. Are you going to pay the loss if he loses? Never encourage another person to gamble their money. Especially on this basketball team. If you like the bet so much, make it yourself.

We had a very similar thread last year at about this time and everybody was spouting off about how it was "free money". Vegas was giving a gift to everyone who bet the over on the Bulls at 27.5. Mark Shanowski even wrote an article telling everyone to go out and grab some of that free cash. You can make every excuse in the World for why they only won 22 games, but the fact is that they only won 22 games. So much can go wrong with this team this season and we are dealing with an unknown.

The handicappers see the Bulls go to guy in the clutch being one of the worst clutch performers in the entire NBA, if not the worst. They aren't stupid and they aren't giving money away, so play at your own risk. I wouldn't touch it although if I were forced to make a bet I would take the over at 30.5. If the line has moved as CF has said, I wouldn't touch it at 32.5.

Any chance to take free dig at Zach and you’re going to take it at every turn. At least you’re consistent if nothing else.....
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#20 » by Indomitable » Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:28 am

coldfish wrote:Bulls were 7-8 when Otto played.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071548

Even then, you had Selden, Felicio, Dunn, Arci and Shaq getting lots of minutes. To that team that went 7-8, the Bulls will add Wendell, Coby, Tomas and Thad. Basically, half of the 8 man rotation for a team that went 7-8 will be upgraded.

I suppose the valid questions are:
- Is 7-8 with Otto a fluke?
- Are Wendell, Coby, Tomas and Thad a legit upgrade to Rolo, Arci, Dunn and Selden?
- Can the Bulls maintain their regular rotation for most of the season and not get devastated by injuries like last year?

The Bulls have add 3pt shooting and professional players. The season is about Lavine and Lauri becoming true impact players.
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