Mark K wrote:When you couldn't believe I gave GarPax a 2.5/5 for their trading on the podcast we did the other week, that reaction you had to me was what I just had in reading this.
I would be floored if the Bulls finished 3rd. That would shock me.
We also can't measure things by comparing the talents of teams and their top players. If it were that simple, the Celtics and Pacers wouldn't have near identical records last season.
The primary premise is that the #3 seed sucks relative to a normal #3 seed. I called the group between 3-10 seeds as 35-45 win talent teams, and I do think the Bulls are towards the bottom that group on paper (7-10 area). I just think the gaps in that group aren't large.
Top 6 or 7 guys on each team:
Celtics: Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Kanter - Kemba hasn't won anything ever or proven he can play with good players, Tatum is no more a breakout candidate than Lauri and is worse statistically, Hayward is a shell of himself, and Brown, Smart, and Kaner are nothing particularly special, just solid players
Raptors: Siakam, Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka, VanVleet, Powell - There's no great shot creator on this team anymore and most of the talent is at the tipping point where we have already seen serious decline and they are about to fall off a cliff and aren't the types that can likely bring it over an 82 game season, especially after being fatigued from a championship run.
Nets: Irving, Dinwiddie, Jordan, Lavert, Allen, Harris, Temple - Irving is going to have to lead a cast of young players less talented than the ones he just got pissed off and failed to lead a year ago. They have good potential if Irving is a good locker room guy and their guys step up, but there aren't real high potential guys on the roster and Irving is a massive injury risk himself, the team probably completely falls off the map without him too.
Pacers: Oladipo (out at least half the year), Brogdon, Turner, Sabonis, Warren, Lamb - The Pacers lost 5 of their top 7 minute players last season and most of their scoring. Any thought that the Pacers are anything is based entirely on anchoring. This is almost a brand new team. Look at that lineup that will roll for half the season and tell me there is anything special there at all.
Heat: Butler, Dragic, James Johnson, Olynik, Waiters, Myers Leonard, Winslow - Jimmy Butler and a bunch of nothing special here unless Dragic has a great comeback season at 33.
Ran out of time to go through the others, but the Pistons, Hawks, Magic aren't going to excite you any more either while the Hornets, Cavs, and Knicks are set up to not even be remotely in the competition and is where the the teams go to sub 30 wins.