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Please help me out here

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sco
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#81 » by sco » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:48 pm

so is there a way to bet on them making playoffs - what odds are they getting?
:clap:
dice
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#82 » by dice » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:25 pm

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:
nomorezorro wrote:idk how good the PIPM dude is historically but here's his projection from earlier this summer:

Read on Twitter


for all the pushback i've done itt and elsewhere, i do think the bulls are more likely to be a high-30s win team than low-30s (particularly if you're projecting based on full strength)

PIPM off by 206.3 total wins last season and 194.7 previous year
https://www.bball-index.com/projected-2018-19-nba-wins/
RPM off by 190.6 last season and 173.7 previous year
https://www.google.com/search?ei=4Z1TXcusI8SutQahoZ-oDQ&q=rpm+2017-2018+"kevin+pelton"&oq=rpm+2017-2018+"kevin+pelton"&gs_l=psy-ab.3..33i299.22119.25621..25820...0.0..0.97.351.4......0....1..gws-wiz.fNnvVmkOmMI&ved=0ahUKEwiLoc2e0oHkAhVEV80KHaHQB9UQ4dUDCAo&uact=5
vegas off by 209 last season and 179.5 previous year


Would be interesting to see all the numbers in one sheet with the actual totals on each side to see how each side was off.

What does RPM say for the Bulls this year, do you know?

he released previous years on aug. 3 both times. hasn't released it yet this year. maybe i'll do some less involved extrapolation of my own based on projected full season minutes distribution
harden '17-18: 30p 62%ts
MJ chi: 32p 58%ts

me: "JH almost the scorer MJ is"
notorious MJ water carrier/sack shaver: "dur, MJ have much more bigger career playoff PPG"

wasn't a career comparison, clown. you dishonor MJ's legacy
dice
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#83 » by dice » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:31 pm

sco wrote:so is there a way to bet on them making playoffs - what odds are they getting?

it WOULD be 7/2 or 4/1 probably, but I don't think I've ever seen playoff odds
harden '17-18: 30p 62%ts
MJ chi: 32p 58%ts

me: "JH almost the scorer MJ is"
notorious MJ water carrier/sack shaver: "dur, MJ have much more bigger career playoff PPG"

wasn't a career comparison, clown. you dishonor MJ's legacy
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johnnyvann840
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#84 » by johnnyvann840 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:06 pm

Well, some good news. ESPN has the Bulls at 39.4 wins using RPM as the main factor. 50% chance at making the playoffs.
I am more than just a serious basketball fan. I am a life-long addict. I was addicted from birth. - Hunter S. Thompson
musiqsoulchild
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#85 » by musiqsoulchild » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:36 pm

johnnyvann840 wrote:Well, some good news. ESPN has the Bulls at 39.4 wins using RPM as the main factor. 50% chance at making the playoffs.


Thats EXACTLY where I have them. Wins wise and playoff odds wise.

The only difference is that after I saw the schedule, I am calling the 9th seed.
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johnnyvann840
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#86 » by johnnyvann840 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:05 pm

musiqsoulchild wrote:
johnnyvann840 wrote:Well, some good news. ESPN has the Bulls at 39.4 wins using RPM as the main factor. 50% chance at making the playoffs.


Thats EXACTLY where I have them. Wins wise and playoff odds wise.

The only difference is that after I saw the schedule, I am calling the 9th seed.


Well, 9th is exactly where the RPM model has them too. This is from Kevin Pelton's latest rankings which is primarily RPM based.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27388596/projected-w-l-records-standings-every-nba-team

Kevin Pelton ESPN Staff Writer

How might a wide-open 2019-20 NBA regular season play out?

With free agency largely wrapped up and most rosters nearing completion, it's time to look ahead to the upcoming NBA campaign with the help of our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). This is our fourth season using RPM for projections, which have correctly picked teams' preseason lines 57.5% of the time in that span.

------

9. Chicago Bulls
Average wins: 39.4
Playoffs: 50%

Like the Suns in the other conference, the Bulls look set to become competitive after winning only 22 games last season. The additions of Otto Porter Jr. (at the 2019 trade deadline), Tomas Satoransky and Young give Chicago far more proven NBA talent and should push the Bulls' weakest performers to the fringes of the rotation.
I am more than just a serious basketball fan. I am a life-long addict. I was addicted from birth. - Hunter S. Thompson
TeamMan
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#87 » by TeamMan » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:01 am

musiqsoulchild wrote:
johnnyvann840 wrote:Well, some good news. ESPN has the Bulls at 39.4 wins using RPM as the main factor. 50% chance at making the playoffs.


Thats EXACTLY where I have them. Wins wise and playoff odds wise.

The only difference is that after I saw the schedule, I am calling the 9th seed.

Yes, between 35-40.
jump
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Re: Please help me out here 

Post#88 » by jump » Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:03 pm

Going for optimism: Bulls split season, 41-41. Make playoffs.

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