Predicting Year 3 Lauri

[PaKii94]

I used to do similar yearly off-season threads for Jimmy Butler as he was rising to a star and I thought it was finally time to do it for my next favorite player: Lauri "The Finnisher" Markkanen

Be warned. This is pretty long. I hoped to organize it to keep it flowing but writing was my worst subject in school
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p36 minutes

Optimistic – 25p/12.5r/3a on 50/42, 65 TS%

Mean – 22p/11r/2.5a on 48/40, 60+ TS%

Pessimistic – 20p/10r/1.5a on 47/38, 57 TS%

Chicken Little – 20p/9r/1a on 44/36, 55 TS%

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As we all know Lauri has shown us potential of being great but it’s been muddled with inconsistency. Looking at his numbers overall, Lauri looks like an intriguing prospect but the numbers don’t really say “Future superstar” and his overall percentages are pretty disappointing for a 7 footer.

However, what’s funny is Lauri is consistently inconsistent in his play. I think we can get a baseline of “healthy” Lauri if we breakdown his two seasons so far into 10 portions. These portions are segmented based on his real life events and are the transition points for his inconsistency. I believe I have watched 90%+ of Lauri’s in game footage and to me there were clear distinctions in his playstyle/caliber between these portions but I will put in the disclaimer that the segmentation was based on (my) eye test.

The inconsistency was due to various factors:
- rookie wall
- back injury
- baby fatigue
- elbow injury
- death fatigue

All the following numbers are normalized to 36 minutes. I can share the spreadsheets I used to calculate these numbers (and other stats). Just ask.

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Let’s start with the rookie season:

Phase 1: Beginner’s Luck (14 games)
18.1p/9.3r/1.9a on 45/37, 58.5 TS%

Lauri came out of the gate strong for the first month. With adrenaline pumping, he was aggressive, efficient and setting rookie 3 point records.

Phase 2: Rookie Wall (11 games)
16.2p/9.7/.97a on 35/29, 45.4 TS%

Now with teams realized his talent level and the rush of the new season gone, Lauri went into a slump as most rookies do. These games could have included the beginnings of the back injury that held him out of 3 games after this phase

Phase 3: Back Injury (8 games)
19.9p/7.5r/1.7a on 43/34, 53.7 TS%

The back injury hindered him. He was playing better than his slump but you can see his rebounding declined (Still putting up nearly 20 ppg p36 though)

Phase 4: Solid Rook (14 games)
19.3p/9.6r/1.7a on 48/43, 61.6 TS%

This is when Lauri was pretty much over the back injury. I don’t know about fully healed but his numbers recovered to better than
Phase 1 numbers on better efficiency

Phase 5: Baby Fatigue (13 games)
15.1p/8.4r/0.6a on 41/24, 49.1 TS%

Lauri doesn’t play 3 games while his wife is giving birth. He comes back but there is something clearly off with him and that reflects in the numbers. Parents know how much fatigue newborns add. This phase spanned the first month of Baby Lauri’s life.

Phase 6: Flamethrower (9 games)
26p/9.2r/1.7a on 49/50, 64.3 TS%

Lauri sits out 5 games but when he comes back, he comes back with a vengeance. Most people following the bulls this season have already tuned out but this is where Lauri is given free reign and he decides to go off. This is what got me excited about his second season. He showed he can easily put up points.

Rookie Season Recap (36 “Healthy” Games):
20.1p/9.4r/1.8a on 47/42, 61 TS%

If you combine the stats for Phase 1, 4 & 6, you get the numbers above. Now these are numbers that show Lauri as a burgeoning superstar. They are very close to what I was expecting from Lauri’s sophomore season. My expectations were 20/10/2 on (47-48)/(38-40), (58-60) TS%

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*Bonus Phase*: Euro Finnisher (3 games)
25.3p/13.2r/2.5a(?) on 62.5 FG% (It was hard to find his stats from this)

Lauri (un)surprisingly came into these juiced up. Luckily for us Bulls fans, we got a sneak peak of what to expect next season as Lauri and looked to have taken a step up and gained some strength.

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Unfortunately, Lauri’s 2nd season was again consistently inconsistent. Let’s take a look:

Phase 1: Elbow Injury (6 games)
18.6p/8.1r/1.1a on 35/34, 46.1 TS%

Unfortunately, my hopes (and the team’s hopes) were dashed when Lauri suffered his elbow injury. It kept him out until December and when he did come back he didn’t look right. He was very passive/timid in gameplay and his normally beautiful shot was off. It can be seen with his very inefficient numbers.

Phase 2: Solid Soph (20 games)
19.9/8.3/1a on 46/41, 57.1 TS%

Slowly Lauri started to get into his groove. I think he could have recovered a lot faster and put better numbers up during these games if it wasn’t for all the external turnover and turmoil. There was still inconsistency but overall these were solid soph stats

Phase 3: Super Nova (14 games)
23.8p/12.9r/2.2a on 46/36, 60.4 TS%

“[Lauri]'d be gone till [February], then [February] came. Then [Lauri] came, right back on his worst behav'” -Drake probably

Hallelujah! This was the first sighting (of hopefully many!) of baby dirk. Lauri finally took over being a primary option and the Bulls decided to run a legitimate offense and look at that, we got results!
Lauri also put an emphasis on rebounding and the multi-ball hander offense allowed him to show peaks at his playmaking abilities. This month in my mind was a beta test for the upcoming season. What’s interesting to see is that the raw percentages weren’t all that high. He still had the best TS of all his career because of his increased foul drawing. This is what distinguishes good players from elite talents and we got a glimpse of it.

Phase 4: Fatigue Death (12 games)
19.2p/10.1r/2.1a on 38/29, 49.1 TS%

I don’t know how to explain it. Bulls said it was fatigue related and then he had a heart issue and was shut down. What was clear is his game fell off a literal cliff after the 4OT atlanta win. I don’t expect these numbers to continue and hopefully these issues are behind Lauri.

Soph Season Recap (34 “Healthy” Games):
21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%

Now this is much more in line with what I was expecting from Lauri’s sophomore season. If you combine the stats for Phase 2 & 3, you get the numbers above. A “healthy” sophomore Lauri was putting up all-star numbers. His efficiency did dip a little bit from his rookie “healthy” stats however, he was assisted on a much lesser percentages of his shots. He had a lot less dunks & 3s and again he was recovering from a serious injury on his shooting elbow. He still upped his scoring & rebounding. Technically when he was allowed to, he did up his assisting (see bonus below) but he only had a small opportunity for it this season.

*Bonus: The Assisting Peak*
After talking with his Finnish coach this season, Lauri put more of an emphasis on playmaking. Along the same time, Boylen opened up the playbook and the offense was humming. During this stretch (18 games), Lauri averaged 2.5 assists. That’s not a huge amount but compared to his anemic ~1 assist during “unhealthy” games and ~1.7a during healthy games, it’s still a step up from what he was doing before. I think he can step it up even more but we have other players to do that now while Lauri can stick to scoring.

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Year 3 Outlook:

Rookie - 20.1p/9.4r/1.8a on 47/42, 61 TS%
Sophomore - 21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%

“Healthy” games are technically cherry picking but I always wish for a full healthy season for all the Bulls players. Obviously, this is nearly impossible but I am really hoping for good consistent health for Lauri (knock on wood everyone). Now if Lauri stays healthy, here is what I predict his stats will be. He really needs to put these numbers up consistently for us to be satisfied.

Mean – 22p/11r/2.5a on 48/40, 60+ TS%

This is numbers with slight improvement across the board. Lauri gets more consistent with his shot, continues to be semi aggressive with rebounding and playmaking.

Optimistic – 25p/12.5r/3a on 50/42, 65 TS%

Superstar/MVP caliber season. This is with everything clicking for him. His shot becomes lethal. He is the center point of the Bulls. Fans rejoice in the second coming of Dirk. This might be a tad too optimistic but hey I needed to include my Lauri/Bulls fan bias and technically it’s possible for Lauri to reach. He still hasn’t reached his ceiling yet. So as DRose said, “Why not?”

Pessimistic – 20p/10r/1.5a on 47/38, 57 TS%

This is if Lauri doesn’t improve and slightly regresses from the “healthy” stats. If he was consistently at this level we would still have a solid player but I think I would be disappointed since this would bring him further from a cornerstone trajectory. Usually third year players take a leap. If Lauri goes back something has gone wrong.

Chicken Little – 20p/9r/1a on 44/36, 55 TS%

If Lauri puts up his career averages consistently for a season, then something has gone terribly wrong. These are the numbers Lauri was putting up when you include the “unhealthy” games. I am expecting a leap in Lauri’s game this year so if he doesn’t show anything improved we have to question durability/reliability. Another year of inconsistency would definitely hamper his star credibility.

My POV – 23p/12r/3a on 49/40, 60 TS%

These are above the Mean prediction but less than the Optimistic. I am expecting at least the mean but I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by Lauri this year. He just has to show damn consistency and stay healthy and I think we will see him attend his first All-Star game this year (along with hopefully Lavine).

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I wanted to do defense analysis but these past two years the team has been trash. I want to see a legitimate team play before I make more concrete judgements on that. From what I can tell, Lauri isn’t a lost cause, as long as you don’t expect big man rim protection. He just doesn’t have the length. His size helps him against guards/smaller forwards but anyone bigger can shoot over him in the post. I think his perimeter defense is above average (He was a positive 3 point defender last year. Maybe he can cover the weaker wing/“3” position when OPJ/Thad is on the floor (guarding the harder wing)?

This is a prediction thread for Lauri’s offensive stats. What are you guys expecting/hoping for?

[Michael Jackson]

Nice work on that. I’ll re read it later but I appreciate the work of the analysis.

[sco]

I think his RB's will and somewhat should come down. The main reason is that RoLo's game was all about blocking out vs rebounding, which inflates the teammates RB's. I expect WCj to be more of a rebounder. Second, some rebounds came as a result of our horrid shooting - more misses on offense, mean more rebounds - optimistically that improves this year. Finally, I don't want Lauri to be posting in the paint this year...rather have him on perimeter for 3's and cuts off fakes.

[ZOMG]

I still have a problem with people calling Lauri inconsistent. To me, a young player being inconsistent means putting up 18 points in one game, 6 points the next, then 20 again, then 4 - while playing essentially the same minutes. Lauri's never been like that - over his career, he's pretty much been a lock to give you at least 16 and 7 night in, night out, no matter who he's playing.

He's been consistent for a young big, but what he hasn't been is efficient. Last year, his finishing near the basket was truly atrocious. He absolutely can't repeat that this season. There was a feeling in 2018-2019 that his constant failures to score near the post didn't mean much in the big picture - it was a lost season anyway, so why not let the kid learn something, right? Well... this year, it's different. The team WILL look for him to score when he has a mismatch, and there has to be some accountability.

[Clint Eastwood]

The whole team is better and deeper. While I think lauri will be great this year, it may not be as obvious just looking at his stats. I see 20p, 8.5 rb, 3 as on 47% fg, 40% from 3. With Wendell, Thaddeus, Lavine, Porter, Sato, white

[CBS7]

I don't think he'll be a 12 rebounds per game guy. Closer to 10.

I'm predicting 22/10/2 on 59 TS%

[TheFinishSniper]

I dont think Lauri will ever rebound more in his career than he did till now. Simply because Rolo was such unique center which allowed others to collect rebound while keeping opponents off the glass. Which gave Markkanen ability and opportunity to push in transition with ball in his hands. So i personally think at best he will keep current rebound rate. Unless Bulls plan to change WCJ's role how to play defense.

Because WCJ is guy going after rebounds. It will be interesting dynamic how them two work out.

[RedBulls23]

I appreciate the work you put into this.

I feel like 57% TS would be optimistic considering he's been at about 55 the last two seasons. If he's at 60% or more, that will be superstar level efficiency.

If he gave the team 20 and 10 on 57% TS next season, that would be really good, and worthy of an allstar selection.

[sco]

The key for me would be improving his 3pt shooting. Pre-ASB he shot 38%, after, just 31%. Keeping around 38% for season would be great!

[Proven_Winner]

I think he turns up his 3pt% to 40%+ this year. Now we should have more space so Lauri doesn’t have to shoot so far or over his defender so often. I feel Lauri can only shine so much before he needs his teammates to play their role.

I feel like we really underrate his shooting because of the percentages but he’s dangerous to let have space. Most games he’s taking some really tough 3s just because that’s all we could get in a possession but I think teams definitely gameplan to make that happen. Lauri’s guy is always glued to his hip because they know he’s more of a shooting threat than we give him credit for.

Along with that I think he ups his rebounding and gets a consistent 10 per game.

[transplant]

Well, if Satoransky averages 12 ppg, LaVine 23, Porter 18, Markkanen 22, Carter 14 and the bench an average-ish 37 that’s 116 ppg. That’d work.

I think 22-9 for Markkanen feels about right.


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[ZOMG]

I think he turns up his 3pt% to 40%+ this year. Now we should have more space so Lauri doesn’t have to shoot so far or over his defender so often. I feel Lauri can only shine so much before he needs his teammates to play their role.

I feel like we really underrate his shooting because of the percentages but he’s dangerous to let have space. Most games he’s taking some really tough 3s just because that’s all we could get in a possession but I think teams definitely gameplan to make that happen. Lauri’s guy is always glued to his hip because they know he’s more of a shooting threat than we give him credit for.

Along with that I think he ups his rebounding and gets a consistent 10 per game.

Markkanen missed a HUGE number of wide open threes last season.

[League Circles]

I dont think Lauri will ever rebound more in his career than he did till now. Simply because Rolo was such unique center which allowed others to collect rebound while keeping opponents off the glass. Which gave Markkanen ability and opportunity to push in transition with ball in his hands. So i personally think at best he will keep current rebound rate. Unless Bulls plan to change WCJ's role how to play defense.

Because WCJ is guy going after rebounds. It will be interesting dynamic how them two work out.

Rolo did do that, but IMO it's not very rare. Carlos Boozer and even Felicio tended to do similar boxing out. I didn't see WCJ much but I'd like to think he can do that, at least down the road. And of course Lauri will become a better fundamental rebounder (and probably play more C) as time goes on.

[Proven_Winner]

I think he turns up his 3pt% to 40%+ this year. Now we should have more space so Lauri doesn’t have to shoot so far or over his defender so often. I feel Lauri can only shine so much before he needs his teammates to play their role.

I feel like we really underrate his shooting because of the percentages but he’s dangerous to let have space. Most games he’s taking some really tough 3s just because that’s all we could get in a possession but I think teams definitely gameplan to make that happen. Lauri’s guy is always glued to his hip because they know he’s more of a shooting threat than we give him credit for.

Along with that I think he ups his rebounding and gets a consistent 10 per game.

Markkanen missed a HUGE number of wide open threes last season.

And a lot were contested which is my point. I’m pretty sure teams aren’t game planning to let Lauri shoot wide open 3s.

[WindyCityBorn]

23/10 38 percent from 3

[TheFinishSniper]

Markkanen does need to become better shooter. Weird thing to say for one our better shooters on roster. But his numbers look more like one of guards than of bigs. Sure that has part of it with his style of play. But he really does need to be sharpshooter who needs to be doubled, trapped to be stopped otherwise he will nail everything it's given.

Not saying he needs to go Steph Curry here, but moment he is open that must be guaranteed bucket and already start moving back on defense knowing it will go in. Basically something he can do in sleep.

In what numbers and percentages that translate I dont care, but thats need to be part of his game. 7-foot sharpshoot sniper. He is one of rare guys who could actually do that.

[DASMACKDOWN]

His shooting is fine. When you have players who primarily shoot 3s, the percentages reflect that.

What he needs to do is capitalize on the easy shots. The 2pt shots. Which is at the moment, is the weakest part of his game.

Lauri is excellent on the move for his finishes. But once it slows down and has the ball in his hands, its a struggle. No matter who is guarding him.

The moment he can find a way to consistently punish the defender in strong scoring position, everything else will open up for him. To me its not strength but technique with Lauri.

[drosereturn]

Markkanen does need to become better shooter. Weird thing to say for one our better shooters on roster. But his numbers look more like one of guards than of bigs. Sure that has part of it with his style of play. But he really does need to be sharpshooter who needs to be doubled, trapped to be stopped otherwise he will nail everything it's given.

Not saying he needs to go Steph Curry here, but moment he is open that must be guaranteed bucket and already start moving back on defense knowing it will go in. Basically something he can do in sleep.

In what numbers and percentages that translate I dont care, but thats need to be part of his game. 7-foot sharpshoot sniper. He is one of rare guys who could actually do that.

The shooting will come. He has been horrible for past 2 seasons but i feel shooting is still the easiest for him. Much like Steph Curry although he is more Curry in terms of bigs.
His biggest problems are consistency and health (fatigue). If he does not show a significant improvement (borderline superstar), the Bulls will regret not trading for someone like Doncic or KP and I am a big fan of Lauri.
Personally, I dont like keeping players with volatile trade value and with skeptical health which is Lavine and I am worried Lauri is also in this category.
I dont mind trading both if they all show marginal improvement/ gets worse next season. I mean theres a chance both become superstars but I will never regret it since they already didnt work in Chicago. You already gave them what 3 yrs and its time move on.
The likelihood they become fools gold are far greater than they actually pan out like a worse version of Beal/Dirk.

[drosereturn]

My expectations offensively are 23/10 with close to 50/40/90 60% TS.
He can suck defensively if he can reach all those numbers in 1 season but can he prove he is a good rebounder even w/o Rolo?

[GrowingHorns]

I think his RB's will and somewhat should come down. The main reason is that RoLo's game was all about blocking out vs rebounding, which inflates the teammates RB's. I expect WCj to be more of a rebounder. Second, some rebounds came as a result of our horrid shooting - more misses on offense, mean more rebounds - optimistically that improves this year. Finally, I don't want Lauri to be posting in the paint this year...rather have him on perimeter for 3's and cuts off fakes.

Then again, if we will be keeping up multiple ball-handlers routine, I don't think his rebounds will come down. I think he might struggle some with contested ones now without RoLo, but when we shifted towards multiple ball handlers style, he became more aggressive with boards as it meant more transition scoring chances for him, and by his words, getting more ball in his hands improved everything in his game (I will find the link about it if I find his comments)