Predicting Year 3 Lauri

[transplant]

I wouldn’t say Markkanen was skrawny as a rookie, but he was a bit “slight of build.” He came in last season much improved in that regard.

For the most part, few of us know what we’re talking about when we critique players’ offseason strength training programs. As Red pointed out, professional trainers are overseeing this stuff. Markkanen is a hugely important property. They’re not turning him into a 70s-era Russian weightlifter.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[ZOMG]

I wouldn’t say Markkanen was skrawny as a rookie, but he was a bit “slight of build.” He came in last season much improved in that regard.

For the most part, few of us know what we’re talking about when we critique players’ offseason strength training programs. As Red pointed out, professional trainers are overseeing this stuff. Markkanen is a hugely important property. They’re not turning him into a 70s-era Russian weightlifter.

I don’t much care whose idea it was, but he went too far with adding mass last season. He was slow, ground-bound and clunky, especially compared to his rookie season.

[transplant]

I wouldn’t say Markkanen was skrawny as a rookie, but he was a bit “slight of build.” He came in last season much improved in that regard.

For the most part, few of us know what we’re talking about when we critique players’ offseason strength training programs. As Red pointed out, professional trainers are overseeing this stuff. Markkanen is a hugely important property. They’re not turning him into a 70s-era Russian weightlifter.

I don’t much care whose idea it was, but he went too far with adding mass last season. He was slow, ground-bound and clunky, especially compared to his rookie season.

And this slow, groung-bound and clunkyness negatively affected him how?

[RedBulls23]

I wouldn’t say Markkanen was skrawny as a rookie, but he was a bit “slight of build.” He came in last season much improved in that regard.

For the most part, few of us know what we’re talking about when we critique players’ offseason strength training programs. As Red pointed out, professional trainers are overseeing this stuff. Markkanen is a hugely important property. They’re not turning him into a 70s-era Russian weightlifter.

I don’t much care whose idea it was, but he went too far with adding mass last season. He was slow, ground-bound and clunky, especially compared to his rookie season.

And this slow, groung-bound and clunkyness negatively affected him how?

He actually lost a good amount of the weight he put on before his elbow injury (that is after he got injured).

Adding muscle mass wasn't Lauri's problem last season. It was his overall health.

[Repeat 3-peat]

I only noticed Lauri being slow was when he came back from injury which Imo was due to being rusty. Conditioning is something I hope Lauri is working on.

Also, every players gets stronger, you have to if you plan on playing at your best come March, or better yet April and so on.

[PaKii94]

Strong arms help with keeping a consistent shooting motion when contested and bumped. Y'all acting like he should stay scrawny. Strength gain obviously has to be balanced

The thing is, he was never scrawny. Lauri came into the NBA with a perfectly good modern NBA PF body.

For some reason he’s now aiming for a WWE body.

I disagree on that. He definitely was fit but still slight and was able to be bullied really easily rookie year. If you watch his rookie highlights he looks like a big wing.

This past year people were moving him much less. His post struggles were mostly people shooting over him. He still struggled posting up on the offensive end but I think this time around it was more about technique.

As far as him being slow, like the others said, I think it was more to do with the elbow injury and his recovery. Lauri looked fast when he wanted to be but his problem was he was timid/passive which I can understand because apparently he came back too early from the injury so he didn't want to reinjure it before it properly healed.

[drosereturn]

Strong arms help with keeping a consistent shooting motion when contested and bumped. Y'all acting like he should stay scrawny. Strength gain obviously has to be balanced

The thing is, he was never scrawny. Lauri came into the NBA with a perfectly good modern NBA PF body.

For some reason he’s now aiming for a WWE body.

I disagree on that. He definitely was fit but still slight and was able to be bullied really easily rookie year. If you watch his rookie highlights he looks like a big wing.

This past year people were moving him much less. His post struggles were mostly people shooting over him. He still struggled posting up on the offensive end but I think this time around it was more about technique.

As far as him being slow, like the others said, I think it was more to do with the elbow injury and his recovery. Lauri looked fast when he wanted to be but his problem was he was timid/passive which I can understand because apparently he came back too early from the injury so he didn't want to reinjure it before it properly healed.

I dont like Lauri bulking way too much. Obviously makes him slower and maybe his shooting gets fked.
Luka has baby fat and he is on his way to becoming MVP candidate. Not getting our of shape like Felicio, Zion is all I care.
He needs to focus on lower body and focus on finishing inside the paint as well as defense.

[sco]

Strong arms help with keeping a consistent shooting motion when contested and bumped. Y'all acting like he should stay scrawny. Strength gain obviously has to be balanced

The thing is, he was never scrawny. Lauri came into the NBA with a perfectly good modern NBA PF body.

For some reason he’s now aiming for a WWE body.

I disagree on that. He definitely was fit but still slight and was able to be bullied really easily rookie year. If you watch his rookie highlights he looks like a big wing.

This past year people were moving him much less. His post struggles were mostly people shooting over him. He still struggled posting up on the offensive end but I think this time around it was more about technique.

As far as him being slow, like the others said, I think it was more to do with the elbow injury and his recovery. Lauri looked fast when he wanted to be but his problem was he was timid/passive which I can understand because apparently he came back too early from the injury so he didn't want to reinjure it before it properly healed.

(broken record here) - his game isn't and shouldn't be about the paint. It is easy to see how he might be tempted to work on this weakness, but doing so, IMO, comes at the cost of being an elite perimeter player. Also, given that he hasn't been the most durable guy, adding weight to his frame will more likely cause back and knee injuries than prevent them. Lauri should be focuses on being quick and perimeter shooting - IDC if he gets bullied by Steph Curry.

[Proven_Winner]

I don’t think adding or losing weight is going to kill you. You’re body will breakdown regardless of either option if you’re not taking care of it. IIRC when Lauri started bringing the ball up he still more times than not beat his own man.

I think people care too much about the muscles and not about what happens over time. LeBron has done it often where he Bulks up before the season and as it goes on ( plus factor in you might not be doing much weight lifting during the season) he noticeably gets leaner but still is just as strong as anyone. I thought that showed there’s levels to this beyond just the simple way fans think of strength training.

[kulaz3000]

I don’t think adding or losing weight is going to kill you. You’re body will breakdown regardless of either option if you’re not taking care of it. IIRC when Lauri started bringing the ball up he still more times than not beat his own man.

I think people care too much about the muscles and not about what happens over time. LeBron has done it often where he Bulks up before the season and as it goes on ( plus factor in you might not be doing much weight lifting during the season) he noticeably gets leaner but still is just as strong as anyone. I thought that showed there’s levels to this beyond just the simple way fans think of strength training.

Exactly, this is strength gain during the off season, but once the season starts and over the season, it will just be about maintaining and not adding to it.

And might I add, how he looks, mid-pump is not how big he actually is. I'm not a big dude, but after a short work out, my body looks swell, but I deflate within an hour and look smaller.

He always looks bigger than he really is, because he is extremely lean and cut, kind of like Thad Young, but you would never consider him too big and bulky.

[Proven_Winner]

I don’t think adding or losing weight is going to kill you. You’re body will breakdown regardless of either option if you’re not taking care of it. IIRC when Lauri started bringing the ball up he still more times than not beat his own man.

I think people care too much about the muscles and not about what happens over time. LeBron has done it often where he Bulks up before the season and as it goes on ( plus factor in you might not be doing much weight lifting during the season) he noticeably gets leaner but still is just as strong as anyone. I thought that showed there’s levels to this beyond just the simple way fans think of strength training.

Exactly, this is strength gain during the off season, but once the season starts and over the season, it will just be about maintaining and not adding to it.

And might I add, how he looks, mid-pump is not how big he actually is. I'm not a big dude, but after a short work out, my body looks swell, but I deflate within an hour and look smaller.

He always looks bigger than he really is, because he is extremely lean and cut, kind of like Thad Young, but you would never consider him too big and bulky.

Nor slow since Thad gets some nice chasedowns and is good in transition as well as in the half court with beating his man with speed.

[PaKii94]

36p/18r p36 on 60%TS tonight with only 1/7 3p shooting. How long will it take for people to hold Lauri to a higher standard? How many games do you guys think it will take until my predictions seem realistic?

Watch on YouTube

[MeloRoseNoah]

Captain Ivan Draga is starting off the season strong.

[Chi town]

FebruLauri finna be an All star.

[PaKii94]

Bumping this one too. How did your hot takes turn out?

Last year was a weird f**king detour in Lauri's career. The chicken little scenario happened...but even worse. The sky DID fall.

Fortunately, it seems like Lauri's progression is back on track for year 4.

A mostly healthy Lauri this season: (per36 mins) 23p/9r on 48/40, 64%TS, 23%USG

This is what I was predicting for year 3:

Optimistic – 25p/12.5r/3a on 50/42, 65 TS%
Mean – 22p/11r/2.5a on 48/40, 60+ TS%
My POV – 23p/12r/3a on 49/40, 60 TS%

These are above the Mean prediction but less than the Optimistic. I am expecting at least the mean but I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by Lauri this year. He just has to show damn consistency and stay healthy and I think we will see him attend his first All-Star game this year (along with hopefully Lavine).

- The rebounding numbers are off because I underestimated Rolo's effect and the difference from going from Rolo to WCJ. Our team is now very "team rebounding" oriented.

- The assists numbers are imo in line for my predictions. It's not showing up on the scoreboard but Lauri's had multiple "free throw" and hockey assists off of his drives.

- The TS% is pleasantly up due to the higher volume of 3s + higher rate of FTs.

Unfortunately, the USAGE is still not up! He's getting as many shots as last year which is a travesty. Too many possessions go to bad shots and turnovers by Coby.

[WindyCityBorn]

Bumping this one too. How did your hot takes turn out?

Last year was a weird f**king detour in Lauri's career. The chicken little scenario happened...but even worse. The sky DID fall.

Fortunately, it seems like Lauri's progression is back on track for year 4.

A mostly healthy Lauri this season: (per36 mins) 23p/9r on 48/40, 64%TS, 23%USG

This is what I was predicting for year 3:

Optimistic – 25p/12.5r/3a on 50/42, 65 TS%
Mean – 22p/11r/2.5a on 48/40, 60+ TS%
My POV – 23p/12r/3a on 49/40, 60 TS%

These are above the Mean prediction but less than the Optimistic. I am expecting at least the mean but I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by Lauri this year. He just has to show damn consistency and stay healthy and I think we will see him attend his first All-Star game this year (along with hopefully Lavine).

- The rebounding numbers are off because I underestimated Rolo's effect and the difference from going from Rolo to WCJ. Our team is now very "team rebounding" oriented.

- The assists numbers are imo in line for my predictions. It's not showing up on the scoreboard but Lauri's had multiple "free throw" and hockey assists off of his drives.

- The TS% is pleasantly up due to the higher volume of 3s + higher rate of FTs.

Unfortunately, the USAGE is still not up! He's getting as many shots as last year which is a travesty. Too many possessions go to bad shots and turnovers by Coby.

Lauri is about at the threshold for what I would call a good season. Not based on stats, but how he is playing. He is scoring efficiently, but I really want to more shot creation ability from him. Off the dribble and posting up smaller players. I would like see us be able to run some offense through him instead of him being completely dependent other players to generate scoring opportunities. That is obviously not going to be ideal especially with Coby trying to figure out how to play PG. Dude 7 feet tall he should never have 11 of 12 shots be spot up 3s. As far defense any talk of him being 5 should be over. It’s a layup line with him as the last line of defense.

So I’m kind of neutral right now. Not disappointed, but definitely overly impressed either.

Also why doesn’t he ever get any of those easy pick and roll/pop opportunities we give Carter at the start of every game?

[PaKii94]

Bumping this one too. How did your hot takes turn out?

Last year was a weird f**king detour in Lauri's career. The chicken little scenario happened...but even worse. The sky DID fall.

Fortunately, it seems like Lauri's progression is back on track for year 4.

A mostly healthy Lauri this season: (per36 mins) 23p/9r on 48/40, 64%TS, 23%USG

This is what I was predicting for year 3:

Optimistic – 25p/12.5r/3a on 50/42, 65 TS%
Mean – 22p/11r/2.5a on 48/40, 60+ TS%
My POV – 23p/12r/3a on 49/40, 60 TS%

These are above the Mean prediction but less than the Optimistic. I am expecting at least the mean but I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by Lauri this year. He just has to show damn consistency and stay healthy and I think we will see him attend his first All-Star game this year (along with hopefully Lavine).

- The rebounding numbers are off because I underestimated Rolo's effect and the difference from going from Rolo to WCJ. Our team is now very "team rebounding" oriented.

- The assists numbers are imo in line for my predictions. It's not showing up on the scoreboard but Lauri's had multiple "free throw" and hockey assists off of his drives.

- The TS% is pleasantly up due to the higher volume of 3s + higher rate of FTs.

Unfortunately, the USAGE is still not up! He's getting as many shots as last year which is a travesty. Too many possessions go to bad shots and turnovers by Coby.

Lauri is about at the threshold for what I would call a good season. Not based on stats, but how he is playing. He is scoring efficiently, but I really want to more shot creation ability from him. Off the dribble and posting up smaller players. I would like see us be able to run some offense through him instead of him being completely dependent other players to generate scoring opportunities. That is obviously not going to be ideal especially with Coby trying to figure out how to play PG. Dude 7 feet tall he should never have 11 of 12 shots be spot up 3s. As far defense any talk of him being 5 should be over. It’s a layup line with him as the last line of defense.

So I’m kind of neutral right now. Not disappointed, but definitely overly impressed either.

Also why doesn’t he ever get any of those easy pick and roll/pop opportunities we give Carter at the start of every game?

Exactly. I'm not satisfied with his play and usage yet either. But I wanted to show that he IS averaging the numbers I predicted which multiple people thought was too aggressive of a prediction.

And that's still with untapped potential. He's still getting almost non existent usage with the starting lineup. I agree the PnR opportunities that WCJ gets should consistently be going to Lauri. At least encouraging signs are Lavine is starting to go PnR with Lauri in late game situations a bit more which is still a lot more than the zero from last year.