Ball4life32 wrote: wonderboy2 wrote:
nomorezorro wrote:markkanen is absolutely not a better defensive player than john collins
collins and lauri are both kinda weird imperfect prospects that present challenges to build around, but i think lauri has both a higher ceiling and lower floor
Not only is John Collins a bad defender, he’s one of the worst power forward defenders in the entire league. Look at his stats on defense. Ask any hawk fan about his defense. They will tell you that he can get you buckets and is a tough rebounder but his defense is horrid. In theory you would think he would be an excellent defender due to his strength and athleticism but that is just not the case.
No way Collins is one for the worst defenders in NBA.
Collins +1.9 DBPM
Lauri -1.3 DBPM
Collins -1.2 DBPM
Lauri -1.6 DBPM
Collins +0.3 DBPM
Lauri -1.6 DBPM
So how is Lauri superior to Collins defensively? Collins actually was very good defensively as a rookie and no where bad as people say imo.
Collins - 19.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists
.560 FG, .348 3 pt, .763 FT% - 21.8 PER / .627 TS% / +1.4 DBPM (30.0 minutes per game)
Lauri - 18.7 points, 9.0 rebounds,1.4 assists
.430 FG, .361 3 pt, .872 FT% - 17.1 PER / .553 TS% / -1.9 BPM (32.3 minutes per game)
PaKii94 wrote:Collins & Lauri are like polar opposites in player types. Collins is a force fed big who has a decent shot (can shoot 3s) but TERRIBLE defense (bad rim protection + bad perimeter d). He goes how Trae goes. Lauri is an offensive player who creates his own shot, has a much better shooting stroke (3s is a primary weapon for him) and he's mediocre at defense (decent perimeter d + poor rim protection).
In both aspects, Lauri is clearly ahead. What Collins is ahead in is finishing (pick and rolls) at the rim but idt there is much potential for more. It's like comparing KLove with Tyson Chandler with a semi decent shot. Tyson in the right situation can play his role better (DPOY) but KLove's all around package is valued more.
Collins averaged 19.5 points in only 30 minutes per game on elite efficiently at 21 years old. Tyson even with a shot has 0 chance to do anything close to that and he is nothing like Collins at all. Collins put up similar numbers at Wake Forest without Trae or a good PG.
wonderboy2 wrote: For as much **** Lavine gets about his defense Young makes Lavine look like a prime Gary Payton. Lavine is a better scorer, more efficient, better defensively, better rebounder than young.
Trae was a rookie compared to LaVine who’s been in the league 4 years. Zach’s defense has improved since his rookie year so let’s see how Trae looks defensively in year 4. Trae is ahead of him in most of those categories at the same stage.
Defense is a hard thing to judge. It requires eye test be part of it along with an aggregation of stats. I will admit I haven't watched much ingame footage of Collins but the numbers are pretty damning for him. I like how you chose one of the few metrics Collins is ahead in compared to Lauri for defense
Here are some other metrics and how to interpret them:
DRTG (Team DRTG):
Collins- 115 (113.9)
Lauri - 112 (113.2)
^ This is a team based stat but Collins is higher than ATL and Lauri is lower than CHI
Collins- 1.0 in 1829 minutes
Lauri- 1.5 in 1682 minutes
^ Lauri's defense contributed to more wins in less minutes
^ These are what Bulls fan complain Lauri is very anemic in....and yet Collins is substantially worse.
Shooting Fouls committed p36:
^ Commits almost 2x the fouls
2019 D-PIPM/ multi-year D-PIPM:
^ Last year might have been an outlier for Collins but for the career, Lauri is still better. (Don't quote me on this but I think I read somewhere PIPM is the closest stat to measuring defense but again not perfect)
^ ESPN's stat. I don't put too much credibility on it but again pointing towards Lauri as the better defender
On-off court opponent ORTG/ On court Opponent ORTG (Team DRTG):
Collins- +2.5/ 115.7 (113.9)
Lauri- +0.4/ 114.4 (113.2)
This is the interesting one. The opposing team had a +2.5 better offensive rating when Collins was on the floor. and on average the opposing team was better compared to the overall team defense. Lauri did the same but not nearly as much. It was almost a wash for him
So I guess the point is both are poor defenders but Collins was worse.
I'll admit Collins had much better efficiency and better numbers but that's where season context comes into play. Lauri came into the season recovering from a serious elbow injury on his shooting arm. Working back from it, for half a season Lauri was at 20/9 @ 57 TS% until a freak fatigue thing occurred and his game fell off a cliff and he was shut down. This fatigue thing shouldn't be chronic so it is reasonable to assume Lauri could continue at that level for offense. (Fans are obviously hoping for more though).
Now did Collins have something similar? Major injuries he was playing out of? Some freak incidences? (I am not trying to make excuses, I didn't watch enough of Collins so I legitimately don't know). Maybe there were and his season numbers don't account for that. IDK
Anyway, then you can look at offensive potential. Lauri was coming to form in February. He put up 26.5p/12.6r on 60TS% (his shooting splits were pretty mediocre tbh 49/36) This is a flash of his offensive ceiling. He could put up even better statlines if he actually got hot (something along the lines of 55/40). Did Collins ever have a stretch of games where he flashed his potential like that?
Finally, I admit the Chandler comparison is undercutting Collins however, my concern with him still stands. Collins is an under the basket finisher with a decent shot. This to me indicates elite "role player". His average distance from the hoop: 7.6 ft compared to Lauri's of 15 ft, almost doubled. Lauri's is much closer to a wing player (PG 16 ft, Durant 15 ft, Towns 11 ft, Jokic 10 ft, klove 15 ft, cousins 9ft).
Now that number isn't that damning. You can still be a superstar and stay under the rim but the major red flag is the assisted rate. Here are some assisted rate for some players: Klove .56, Towns .58, Jokic .54, Valanciunas .58, cousins .48
Lauri- .58 career, .54 last season
Collins- .73 career/last season
Collins is much more of a spoon fed big. Now let's look at his raw offensive stats. Generally his numbers put him in pretty elite company. These are the players who hit 19.3p/9.7r @ 60TS%: http://bkref.com/tiny/5q1HF
However, if you look at the list, the players who got spoon fed as much as Collins, they were ELITE defenders aka DPOY/All-defense type of players and they were putting up better numbers. Collins on the other hand is just the worst defender of the bunch. Lower than KAT and he is considered a sieve.
^ When you put all that together, I think Lauri is clearly the better prospect in the hopes of becoming a true star while I think Collins maxes out as an elite role player. Having said that, Collins clearly played his role better last year (i.e. more valuable player LAST year)
As far as Trae vs Lavine goes, obviously Trae is the better asset when you include contracts into consideration. Without including contracts, it is an interesting comparison. Trae is already more impactful on the offensive end however I think for him he has physical limitations on the defensive end. Even if his mental aspect comes around, he can only improve so much on that end.
For Lavine on the other hand, his defensive lapses are mental. The physical tools are there. If he can figure out the mental aspect, Lavine shoots up in impact. Will he get there? we will see but theoretically I think Lavine has more defensive potential.
On the offensive end it comes to playmaking vs pure scoring. I concede an elite floor general is a lot more valuable when isolated but I think Lavine's role on the Bulls as a scorer fits him well.