Can Zach LaVine Win The Scoring Title This Season?

[Tetlak]

The Ringer wouldn't be surprised:

"The recent history of first-time scoring champions bodes well for LaVine. Since the 2000-01 season, first-time scoring title winners have been, on average, 25.3 years old with an experience level of 6.6 seasons in the league. LaVine turns 25 in March and is entering his sixth season.

Those 10 first-time scoring title winners (Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, James Harden) all saw their points per game rise an average of 5.2 points from the previous year. A similar jump for LaVine this upcoming season would put him at 28.9 PPG—that would have ranked second in the league in 2018-19."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/9/5/20849626/zach-lavine-nba-scoring-champ

You guys and gals think there's actually a chance of this now that Westbrook has entered the fold in HOU?

[gardenofsound]

Possible? Yeah... the guy is as talented as anyone in this league.

I'd have very long odds, though. I'm not yet convinced he has the basketball IQ to put it all together.

[dougthonus]

No.

To win the scoring title you need to do a few things:
1: Have massive usage
2: Have the highest efficiency among similar usage players

Zach's efficiency is pretty good for his usage, but he's not remotely close to the best among players with high usage so he would either need to massively improve efficiency or take a much, much larger role in the offense.

The second of those things is something that goes against the team direction (more options, more shots for different guys). The first thing isn't going to change enough to push him ahead of someone like Harden whom will almost certainly have higher usage and is presently vastly more efficient.

Zach would probably need to shoot something like 50% from 3 and 60% from the field to have a shot at the scoring title.

[chitowndish]

Seems like they are looking statistically things like age and he is a extremely talented scorer but I don't see why he'd have that kind of role on this team. If he's scoring like that it almost means something went wrong. I really want to see a balanced offense where the defense has to stick everyone on the floor so I want everyone chipping in on offense I don't think we need a 28 ppg scorer. I also think from a player development perspective I'd prefer LaVine to work on other things like knowing when to use his offensive pressure to create for others, when to push the issue and improve his defense and become a more well rounded player.

Talent and skill wise though LaVine is a pretty unstoppable scorer so if he was on a bad team carrying the offense and primarily focused his energy on it I could see him winning the scoring title but I'm not sure that's what's best for him or the team kind of thing. It would probably be great for his bank account but I don't know if that would make him a better player than the other things he could improve on.

[League Circles]

I think his scoring is much more likely to go down than up, but with increased efficiency.

[sco]

Could he? Sure. He was pretty dominant when he was the only starter out there for stretches last season.

Should he? NO. This is the most balanced scoring roster I can recall the Bulls having in a very long time. A key to winning this season is taking better shots and improving our offensive efficiency. If we assume that our 5th option is WCj, who, IMO can be a very efficient scorer, our key to success will be making teams pay for double-teaming Zack and Lauri. I'd like to see all 5 starters shoot between 10 and 20 shots per game.

[johnnyvann840]

I hope not. It would mean the Bulls are probably way too one dimensional and also mean that Zach's FGA's per game and usage are way too high for us to be a winning team. Bulls best chance is to have a more balanced attack.... especially down the stretch in games.

[ImSlower]

That would likely mean somethung disastrous, like losing two other starters to longterm injury or utter failure.

[johnnyvann840]

Possible? Yeah... the guy is as talented as anyone in this league.

I'd have very long odds, though. I'm not yet convinced he has the basketball IQ to put it all together.

Thing is that if his IQ is to go up, his scoring (as in PPG) should actually go down along with his usage rate and his efficiency should go up along with his assist to turnover ratio. This Bulls roster needs to have a balanced points distribution if we are going to take a big step into a winning team.

[KeithBoothfan]

The window might be open a tiny crack, but I'd be astonished if he did it. Most of the top guys last year seem likely to maintain or even raise their ppg this season. Giannis doesn't seem likely to slow down and may even take a couple more shots a game with Brogdon gone. George scored 28ppg while trying to share with Westbrook and might now have the chance to shoot all he wants on Kawhi's "load management" nights off. Harden will have to do that this year, but he average 36ppg. Seems likely he'll easily average the 28ppg that George did with Russ last year even if he takes a huge reduction in shots and usage. Curry will be forced to launch nonstop this year with Durant gone and Klay injured, even if Russell has a good year. Embiid average 27.5 ppg last year and won't have to share with Jimmy anymore.

I dunno - unless every other competent Bulls scorer is hurt for long stretches, forcing him to take a million shots, or he turns into some superhuman blend of Jordan and Ray Allen, it seems extreeeemely unlikely that Zach wi'll be in the running for the ppg title.

[weneeda2guard]

He def has the talent to do so

But I'm over the 1 trick pony offense , 1 guy with high usage offense. I loved rose in it, but that offense clearly had its limitations and the heat exposed it heavily.

We have more scoring options and would like an offense where all can eat well
I do think lavine will become the 1st option though but I'm good with a 24 ppg kinda output with lauri giving us about 19 ppg. I think that does better for the team than lavine avg 34 ppg.

[nomorezorro]

i think zach lavine scoring the ball a lot is a good thing for this team, because he's really good at scoring

i wouldn't bet on him winning the scoring title or anything, but depending on how the rotations work out i can see situations where i would be happy with him looking to score a lot rather than prioritizing ~balance~. if his minutes get staggered so he's playing a decent amount with the second unit? go buckwild, man

[ATRAIN53]

sure it's possible-

He was at 6 FTA per game last year.
He is Boylens boy so Jim will let him take the shots.

He does miss a chunk of games every year tho.

I really would like to see him aim for an All Defensive team bid more than scoring title tho-
2 way Zach is an All Star player IMO.

Id rather see him @ 25PPG and Lauri @ 20+PPG

[khufure]

Harden had 36.1 to Zach's 23.7. Zach wasn't even top-10 last year (16th). Possible? -- yes. Probably -- definitely not.

[AKfanatic]

He could... if he does, (multiple) something(s) has likely gone very wrong for the Bulls this season.

[bearadonisdna]

Real question? Is Zach capable of scoring 2000 points this season or next?
The answer to me is yes but I’m a Zach fan.
Would I like to see him slice the defense the wolverine? Hopefully he gets that chance.
Boylen cut off that chance last year to promote efficiency.

[coldfish]

Just to play devil's advocate and back up Tetlak:
https://www.espn.com/nba/stats

George isn't going to do that this season. That leaves Gianis at 27.7.

In March, Zach averaged 26.9. He averaged 28.1 in October. He averaged 23.7 overall. So, the questions:
1. Will Harden collapse due to the presence of Westbrook and/or age
AND
2. Will no one else pop up
AND
3. Will Lavine up his average to be around the best months of his career

Overall, the combination is unlikely but not as absurd as you might otherwise think.

[Stratmaster]

Gee, are there any other players who will turn 25 this year and are in their 6th season?

I would expect a large number of the 25 year olds in the league are in their 6th season.

So basically the argument is "he is going to turn 25".

I'm a Lavine supporter but if he is the scoring champ something went terribly wrong for the Bulls and it likely won't be a good thing.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[bearadonisdna]

Gee, are there any other players who will turn 25 this year and are in their 6th season?

I would expect a large number of the 25 year olds in the league are in their 6th season.

So basically the argument is "he is going to turn 25".

I'm a Lavine supporter but if he is the scoring champ something went terribly wrong for the Bulls and it likely won't be a good thing.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Why would something have to go wrong if Zach hits his ceiling and bypasses that as a scorer?
Having a player of that caliber is a key to competitiveness.
Not sure how it would foreshadow a negative outcome.

[ChettheJet]

Let me check,,,,, NO