The (a little too) early 2020 FA target discussion

sco · Post #1 » by **sco** » Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:04 pm

So who do you guys like?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Some that seem like good fits:
Vanvleet: I saw some speculation that TOR won't pay-up for him. He'd be a perfect fit for this team.
Hayward: I think he'll opt out and be gettable given his lesser play around $20-$24M
Fournier
Gallinari
Crowder
Bogdonovic
Saric

Post #2 » by **coldfish** » Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:56 pm

I don't think that the Bulls can or should spend any money in free agency.

I'm starting to think Porter will opt in. They won't have much money to start with. I would just look for trades and one year deals.

ChettheJet · Post #3 » by **ChettheJet** » Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:17 pm

When you look at that list there's no one that's going to make a major impact for the Bulls as in being good enough to come in to start by pushing the guys we have to the bench, not for the money they're gong to ask for,

I don't see Hayward opting out and giving up a certain $34M in hopes of signing for $20-24M for say 4 years when he could play next year and then sign for $20-24 for 3 years and come out ahead by $14M. Your math is off.

That's why Porter opts in for sure, he wouldn't get much attention coming off 2 straight injury plagued seasons, so he takes his $28M and gambles on being healthy and impressive and enters the 2021 market when so many teams are clearing space.

All things being equal if there was a way to trade Porter for Hayward I'd take the chance Hayward plays well, likes being here and resigns to be comfortable. For BOS it's a gamble that Porter comes back strong while they save $6M, maybe there's a late FRP coming back for the savings.

Maybe better than that is trading for Wiggins, Townes or J Randle or somebody else at a position of need who are signed through at least 2022 and skip the FA market. If those teams would take Porter to shift their cap space to 2021 because they have targeted a player.

You've still got to see what happens this year, is there a team that wants Valentine and for what, is someone willing to pay a decent price for Young, has Felicio shown anything in the past week that some team thinks he's worth a spot on the bench? Who they can get back plays into next year's thinking.

sco · Post #4 » by **sco** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:26 pm

If we don't do trades, how much will we have to spend next season?

CoreyVillains · Post #5 » by **CoreyVillains** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:33 pm

sco wrote:If we don't do trades, how much will we have to spend next season?

The Bulls have 106 mil in guaranteed contracts, not including the cap holds of Dunn and Denzel. I believe the cap is projected at 125 mil for the 2021-22 season.

League Circles · Post #6 » by **League Circles** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:45 pm

Bulls should move some dead weight if possible. I mean if a quality trade isn't available I think trying to dump some salary and take a swing in FA is better than sitting on our hands for another year. I mean we've had 4 years of irrelevance already. 5 is a lot. Enough to lose another layer of fans potentially long term.

sco · Post #7 » by **sco** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:59 pm

League Circles wrote:Bulls should move some dead weight if possible. I mean if a quality trade isn't available I think trying to dump some salary and take a swing in FA is better than sitting on our hands for another year. I mean we've had 4 years of irrelevance already. 5 is a lot. Enough to lose another layer of fans potentially long term.

IMO, we need a point guard upgrade. Sato is a fringe starting talent, but would be a good pairing with Coby off the bench next season. I think Coby won't be ready to start next season, not sure he's a PG either. We also need a SF. I think there are plenty of low cost guys who we could nab to be a backup.

Post #8 » by **coldfish** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:06 pm

If the Bulls let Dunn and Denzel walk and end up with the #11 or so pick, they will have around $110m in salary on the books.
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2019/09/16/nba-lowers-2020-21-salary-cap-projection-to-116m/

That gives them about $6m.

The issue is that Porter, Felicio, etc. all come off the books after then. Sato and Thad are partially guaranteed. The Bulls could have $70m in capspace in 2021. Spending big next year just takes from that.

I'm not sure that I am on board for waiting years for another false hope but I guarantee that the Bulls are going to stick with it. Expect a small spending summer.

Rose2Boozer · Post #9 » by **Rose2Boozer** » Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:34 pm

Well, at this early stage I'd say, trade our lottery pick to the Magic for Mo Bamba. They should have some interest in one of the point guards on the board. After that let Kris Dunn sign his qualifying offer, and that's just about it. Hopefully, GarPax can find a deal for Thad Young at the trade deadline this season.

HearshotKDS · Post #10 » by **HearshotKDS** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:18 am

I hate to say this because “wait until next years FA” has been a decade long con GarPax have pulled on this fan base. But with that said, it’s the strategically correct play here.

Any contracts signed this offseason need to only have 1 year garaunteed $$. Cross fingers and hope for lucky lotto bounces and smart draft choices, then approach 2021 without the current deadweight, a developed WCJ and White, a promising rookie, and 2 max contracts worth of room to sign players/trade for if need be.

I also fully realize I am setting myself up for the same disappointment we’ve had year over year. But it’s the strategically sound move, if the execution is poor then hopefully something finally clicks and the team replaces the parts of the FO that can’t execute.

Post #11 » by **dougthonus** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:23 am

sco wrote:So who do you guys like?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Some that seem like good fits:
Vanvleet: I saw some speculation that TOR won't pay-up for him. He'd be a perfect fit for this team.
Hayward: I think he'll opt out and be gettable given his lesser play around $20-$24M
Fournier
Gallinari
Crowder
Bogdonovic
Saric

Hard to imagine why Hayward opts out of 34M to take 20-24M for a far worse team. I wouldn't be excited about signing him even if he did.

Also, if Otto doesn't opt out, I don't think we have any meaningful cap space, so probably will only be looking at MLE or less guys. There's also expected to be a lot more money than talent, so you should expect a lot of the deals next year to be for higher dollars than the players feel like they are worth.

wonderboy2 · Post #12 » by **wonderboy2** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:32 am

Porter is probably better than 90% if not all of those players when he’s playing and healthy. But in terms of need I would take Van Fleet because he so much of an upgrade over Sato. The bulls need a Starting Level point guard in the worst way.

PrimzyBulls81 · Post #13 » by **PrimzyBulls81** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:52 pm

If Porter opts in,we dont have much room to do anything anyway,soo..

But WE SHOULD BE LOOKING for LEGIT PG starter -- D.Rose trade even this year must be an option..
And MOST IMPORTANT THING -- WE NEED reset from GarPax and Boylen! New FO and new coach

new PG - Rose ,new coach : Joerger or Stackhouse , with everyone Healthy should get to playoffs easily!

sco · Post #14 » by **sco** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:43 pm

dougthonus wrote:
sco wrote:So who do you guys like?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Some that seem like good fits:
Vanvleet: I saw some speculation that TOR won't pay-up for him. He'd be a perfect fit for this team.
Hayward: I think he'll opt out and be gettable given his lesser play around $20-$24M
Fournier
Gallinari
Crowder
Bogdonovic
Saric

Hard to imagine why Hayward opts out of 34M to take 20-24M for a far worse team. I wouldn't be excited about signing him even if he did.

Also, if Otto doesn't opt out, I don't think we have any meaningful cap space, so probably will only be looking at MLE or less guys. There's also expected to be a lot more money than talent, so you should expect a lot of the deals next year to be for higher dollars than the players feel like they are worth.

Some MLE guys to consider:

Dragic - I bet he'll be cheap given his age and could provide useful PG mins.
Snell - how is he only 28?
Connaughton
Burks
Vonleh
Dotson

kodo · Post #15 » by **kodo** » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:45 pm

The FO has structured the team for 2021 cap space. That's why we traded for Otto and most likely why we signed guys like Sato/Thad when guys like Brogdon were available, he wanted a 4 year deal. Sato/Thad agreed to 2 year deals with minimal guaranteed cash on their 3rd years, the Bulls will waive both of them after next season.

So even if Otto opts out, we won't kill our cap space by maxing VanVleet. We'll sign someone willing to take a 1 year deal, kinda like Jabari last season. And whoever is ok w/ a 1 year deal probably won't be much better than Jabari.

Post #16 » by **Michael Jackson** » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:44 am

kodo wrote:The FO has structured the team for 2021 cap space. That's why we traded for Otto and most likely why we signed guys like Sato/Thad when guys like Brogdon were available, he wanted a 4 year deal. Sato/Thad agreed to 2 year deals with minimal guaranteed cash on their 3rd years, the Bulls will waive both of them after next season.

So even if Otto opts out, we won't kill our cap space by maxing VanVleet. We'll sign someone willing to take a 1 year deal, kinda like Jabari last season. And whoever is ok w/ a 1 year deal probably won't be much better than Jabari.

At 6 million in capspace we won’t get anything close to the Jabari signing for either. Pretty much we will not be in the market for much of any value. Granted not a lot of FAs next year but there also is not a lot of money out there as most teams are also geared for 2021.

VanFleet fits but no way we can afford him and he doesn’t move the needle that much because we have so many holes. White,Sato, LaVine and Van Fleet is a real respectable core of guards yet still not elite. No way he takes a massive hometown discount. He will want closer to Brogdon money than Sato money which we still wouldn’t be able to give him.

Maybe a trade of some sort is possible yet we know our history of trades is not very good.

HoopsterJones · Post #17 » by **HoopsterJones** » Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:22 am

The Free agent class is slim pickings. Sign some Free agents to one year deals to fulfill the minimum salary requirement and punt to 2021.

Kurt Heimlich · Post #18 » by **Kurt Heimlich** » Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:34 am

OPJ will opt in. And we'll get everything he has in his contract year.

I don't expect any long term FA contracts this off season, other than a long shot Lauri extension. But obviously he has lost himself some significant bargaining power this season. So it may be a "bet on yourself" year for Lauri as well. The 2020-21 Bulls might be in store for some contract year magic lol.

bulliedog8 · Post #19 » by **bulliedog8** » Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:16 pm

The 2021 class is overrated too. Yayaya it will be historic, but who will actually leave?

AD and Lebron will stay
Kawhi and PG will stay
Giannis stays in Milwaukee or goes to toronto.
Beal signed an extension and would need to be traded.

Not many big names worth signing long term after that.

Post #20 » by **coldfish** » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:11 pm

bulliedog8 wrote:The 2021 class is overrated too. Yayaya it will be historic, but who will actually leave?

AD and Lebron will stay
Kawhi and PG will stay
Giannis stays in Milwaukee or goes to toronto.
Beal signed an extension and would need to be traded.

Not many big names worth signing long term after that.

In general, capspace is a massively overrated tool for franchise building. Every once in a while, someone hits a homerun but IMO there is less than a 1 in 10 chance of doing that.

The tool Chicago should use is trades but they are extremely reluctant to trade future firsts or young players. As such, they are always stuck.

The Bulls used to make this up by being good at drafting but they have went from being excellent at it to terrible.