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Rumor: Lauri wants out.

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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#161 » by Skybox » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:16 pm

Free him...

I see two talented guys who need a change of scenery. ORL send Aaron Gordon and this year's FRP for Lauri and Satoransky.

ORL desperately needs floor spreaders so Fultz and Vuc can get inside. Isaac's defensive versatility makes it work. Plus, added bonus, sour ORL fans can blame "softy Euros" (Vuc, Lauri, possibly Fournier) if it doesn't bear fruit.

CHI gets Lavine and AG filling the lanes with highlight finishes all game. Gordon brings offensive versatility, great hands and finishing around the rim/in traffic, limited but occasional spot up 3's with elite lockdown D. In the right role (not having to create on his own, he's a killer, but Isaac and AG are redundant-every team needs ONE).
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#162 » by MrSparkle » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:34 pm

Aaron Gordon is 13 PER PF on the max with low defensive skills and IQ.

I would take an equally paid Lauri over him, let alone a rookie salary Lauri.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#163 » by ZOMG » Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:25 pm

9 pages of speculation, all based on something that we have absolutely ZERO proof of. There are no quotes by Lauri saying he wants out, there are no quotes by Lauri's "people" (umm, it's basically just him and his agent) saying he wants out... and Markkanen has never been known to send messages through back channels.

What, he didn't want to talk to the media after this crap started? Big deal. He's injured, his season is most likely over and he has another interminable offseason ahead of him after playing competitive ball for just a few months. At 22 years of age, instead of being able to devote his life in the short term to basketball and improving, he's trying to be a family man as well as an NBA pro. At 22!!

Hell, I wouldn't want to talk to anyone either. I wonder how he stays sane.

I'm calling bulls**t on him "wanting out". Is he uncertain if this Bulls team, coached by Boylen and "led" by Zach, is the hill he wants to die on? Of course he is. Who wouldn't be? But from everything I've read and heard him say, he likes Chicago.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#164 » by Mark K » Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:48 pm

MrSparkle wrote:Aaron Gordon is 13 PER PF on the max with low defensive skills and IQ.

I would take an equally paid Lauri over him, let alone a rookie salary Lauri.


Aaron Gordon isn't close to earning the max. And low defensive skills? Huh?
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#165 » by Jiipee84 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:30 pm

Skybox wrote:Free him...

I see two talented guys who need a change of scenery. ORL send Aaron Gordon and this year's FRP for Lauri and Satoransky.

ORL desperately needs floor spreaders so Fultz and Vuc can get inside. Isaac's defensive versatility makes it work. Plus, added bonus, sour ORL fans can blame "softy Euros" (Vuc, Lauri, possibly Fournier) if it doesn't bear fruit.

CHI gets Lavine and AG filling the lanes with highlight finishes all game. Gordon brings offensive versatility, great hands and finishing around the rim/in traffic, limited but occasional spot up 3's with elite lockdown D. In the right role (not having to create on his own, he's a killer, but Isaac and AG are redundant-every team needs ONE).


Does Orlando Magic have a head coach who can maximize Lauri's talent and hide his weaknesses in defense, rim protection, rebounding and post game. Are Nikola Vucevic and Mo Bamba good defenders who can mask and cover Lauri's liability in defense.
And how about really good PG who can make plays and share ball to Lauri because Lauri requires really good / elite PG to being successful scorer and shooter.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#166 » by Jiipee84 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:34 pm

ZOMG wrote:9 pages of speculation, all based on something that we have absolutely ZERO proof of. There are no quotes by Lauri saying he wants out, there are no quotes by Lauri's "people" (umm, it's basically just him and his agent) saying he wants out... and Markkanen has never been known to send messages through back channels.

What, he didn't want to talk to the media after this crap started? Big deal. He's injured, his season is most likely over and he has another interminable offseason ahead of him after playing competitive ball for just a few months. At 22 years of age, instead of being able to devote his life in the short term to basketball and improving, he's trying to be a family man as well as an NBA pro. At 22!!

Hell, I wouldn't want to talk to anyone either. I wonder how he stays sane.

I'm calling bulls**t on him "wanting out". Is he uncertain if this Bulls team, coached by Boylen and "led" by Zach, is the hill he wants to die on? Of course he is. Who wouldn't be? But from everything I've read and heard him say, he likes Chicago.


If there's smoke then there will be fire too with these speculations.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#167 » by sco » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Let's pretend the FO wants to keep Lauri and will find a way to make him happy. What kind of extension offer do you think it will take to extend a placated Lauri Markkanen?

5/$75
5/$80
5/$90
5/$100
More?
Less?
Other structure like 3/$75 with 2-way 3rd year option?
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#168 » by FranchisePlayer » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:26 pm

Jiipee84 wrote:
ZOMG wrote:9 pages of speculation, all based on something that we have absolutely ZERO proof of. There are no quotes by Lauri saying he wants out, there are no quotes by Lauri's "people" (umm, it's basically just him and his agent) saying he wants out... and Markkanen has never been known to send messages through back channels.

What, he didn't want to talk to the media after this crap started? Big deal. He's injured, his season is most likely over and he has another interminable offseason ahead of him after playing competitive ball for just a few months. At 22 years of age, instead of being able to devote his life in the short term to basketball and improving, he's trying to be a family man as well as an NBA pro. At 22!!

Hell, I wouldn't want to talk to anyone either. I wonder how he stays sane.

I'm calling bulls**t on him "wanting out". Is he uncertain if this Bulls team, coached by Boylen and "led" by Zach, is the hill he wants to die on? Of course he is. Who wouldn't be? But from everything I've read and heard him say, he likes Chicago.


If there's smoke then there will be fire too with these speculations.


Yeah, if. What you obviously didn't understand was ZOMG explaining there's no smoke. Unless you can provide us a quote from an interview by Markkanen saying he wants out. Did you even read the opening tweet?
MeloRoseNoah wrote:Comparing Markkanen the Euro soft bum to Eddy Curry Shaq Jr is an understatement and a drastic overvaluation of this Euro bust.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#169 » by Skybox » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:46 pm

Jiipee84 wrote:
Skybox wrote:Free him...

I see two talented guys who need a change of scenery. ORL send Aaron Gordon and this year's FRP for Lauri and Satoransky.

ORL desperately needs floor spreaders so Fultz and Vuc can get inside. Isaac's defensive versatility makes it work. Plus, added bonus, sour ORL fans can blame "softy Euros" (Vuc, Lauri, possibly Fournier) if it doesn't bear fruit.

CHI gets Lavine and AG filling the lanes with highlight finishes all game. Gordon brings offensive versatility, great hands and finishing around the rim/in traffic, limited but occasional spot up 3's with elite lockdown D. In the right role (not having to create on his own, he's a killer, but Isaac and AG are redundant-every team needs ONE).


Does Orlando Magic have a head coach who can maximize Lauri's talent and hide his weaknesses in defense, rim protection, rebounding and post game. Are Nikola Vucevic and Mo Bamba good defenders who can mask and cover Lauri's liability in defense.
And how about really good PG who can make plays and share ball to Lauri because Lauri requires really good / elite PG to being successful scorer and shooter.


Maybe- on all counts. Clifford is an excellent team defensive coach. His offensive schemes are frustratingly simple and player-dependent. He is all about minimizing turnovers and setting up on D (very little offensive boards). Jonathan Isaac is the defensive savant that, technically at the 3, leads the league in blocked shots, deflects everything close by and switches like a madman. His offense is very limited at this point. Vuc is not a great rim protector but he is a solid defender down low. He gives up too many blow-bys and isn't able to move to the perimeter on switches very well. Bamba projects very differently as he is super long, agile, and switchy. His defensive instincts have held him back, so the hope is his continued development is not hitting a ceiling. If Bamba and Isaac are the future, the future is long, really long, and it would be like dribbling by an octopus. Right now, the offense is so dependent on Vuc that there's no way Bamba can take over (he's not ready anyway). We have what appears to be a great PG in Fultz. He's a creative passer, great ball handler in traffic and finishes creatively at the rim...We all hope he's a junior Westbeast, hopefully his shooting will return to its college level. He's a joy to watch dancing through crowds in the paint...

...Here's the problem. We don't have enough floor spreaders. As a result, Vuc (who has shown McHale-like post moves), Fultz, and the rest are MOBBED in the paint and unable to do what they do. Gordon is probably the odd man out only because Isaac shows supernatural defensive instincts and length already. AG can do a lot of offensive damage on any given night but doesn't significantly score from long range. Fultz is absolutely not a threat from long range and Isaac is ok but not scary. Having an Aaron Gordon or a Jonathan Isaac is great, but having both may not be optimal...I'm interested in anyone that can shoot from long range every night effectively enough to demand respect and open things up for Fultz. I'm shocked at some of the criticisms of AG...he is most definitely an elite defender, he's got great hands and stupid athleticism to finish in crowds...he's limited in his offensive creation, when he puts it on the floor, things can go all kinds of ways. He would be a monster if freed to chase offensive boards and putbacks like Dominique Wilkins, play solid D, and stay within the flow of the offense. If you give him room to work, he's great...Nobody on ORL is getting that, so something's gotta give.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#170 » by mtron32 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:20 am

This whole conversation is depressing. Lauri is probably going to get traded away for a late first round pick, go to an actual capable franchise and thrive. Meanwhile we're going to have to watch that sht happen
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#171 » by Stratmaster » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 am

I would want to hear it from Lauri before I would believe it. If it is true though, it's not like we're losing an all-star. He is a poor man's Niko Mirotic.

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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#172 » by Jiipee84 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:01 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:
Jiipee84 wrote:
ZOMG wrote:9 pages of speculation, all based on something that we have absolutely ZERO proof of. There are no quotes by Lauri saying he wants out, there are no quotes by Lauri's "people" (umm, it's basically just him and his agent) saying he wants out... and Markkanen has never been known to send messages through back channels.

What, he didn't want to talk to the media after this crap started? Big deal. He's injured, his season is most likely over and he has another interminable offseason ahead of him after playing competitive ball for just a few months. At 22 years of age, instead of being able to devote his life in the short term to basketball and improving, he's trying to be a family man as well as an NBA pro. At 22!!

Hell, I wouldn't want to talk to anyone either. I wonder how he stays sane.

I'm calling bulls**t on him "wanting out". Is he uncertain if this Bulls team, coached by Boylen and "led" by Zach, is the hill he wants to die on? Of course he is. Who wouldn't be? But from everything I've read and heard him say, he likes Chicago.


If there's smoke then there will be fire too with these speculations.


Yeah, if. What you obviously didn't understand was ZOMG explaining there's no smoke. Unless you can provide us a quote from an interview by Markkanen saying he wants out. Did you even read the opening tweet?


I don't know how media and reporters act in USA.
But in Finland media and all reporters have source protection.
Which means that the reporter cannot and must not disclose his sources.

Why would any professional sport journalist like Joe Cowley, KC Johnson etc
would come up with and tell false rumors of transfer without any reliable source.
So it is that now that such rumors are circulating something is truly happening in the background.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#173 » by Jiipee84 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:12 pm

mtron32 wrote:This whole conversation is depressing. Lauri is probably going to get traded away for a late first round pick, go to an actual capable franchise and thrive. Meanwhile we're going to have to watch that sht happen


So what if / when that **** happens?
It's only a win win situation for both ( Bulls and Lauri ).

Lauri already is in his route to Euroleague / Europe so why not let that happen.
1 season ( 2020-2021 ) here and there in NBA won't hurt anyone
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#174 » by FranchisePlayer » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:03 pm

Jiipee84 wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:
Jiipee84 wrote:
If there's smoke then there will be fire too with these speculations.


Yeah, if. What you obviously didn't understand was ZOMG explaining there's no smoke. Unless you can provide us a quote from an interview by Markkanen saying he wants out. Did you even read the opening tweet?


Why would any professional sport journalist like Joe Cowley, KC Johnson etc
would come up with and tell false rumors of transfer without any reliable source.
So it is that now that such rumors are circulating something is truly happening in the background.


Why would John Paxson lie through his teeth to the media and go on record for...
https://pippenainteasy.com/2020/02/07/chicago-bulls-paxson-doesnt-think-lauri-markkanen-is-unhappy-in-windy-city/

John Paxson responded to speculation that Lauri Markkanen is not happy in Chicago. The truth is, everyone on the team is probably disgruntled with the Bulls’ 19-33 record heading into Thursday.

“Lauri, we believe in at a high level and we view him as a cornerstone player,” Paxson said. “It’s our responsibility to help him become the type of player we believe he can be. We’ve had direct communication with him, with his agent … we’ve never been told Lauri doesn’t want to be here.


Everybody has an agenda. Reporters try to create clickbaits, Paxson wants to avoid turbulence... maybe Lauri wants to test his value and get rid of Boylen. Who knows.

To me fire you mentioned is a concrete trade offer on the table, smoke probably Lauri going public he wants out. Heck, if he's smart you'd expect him wanting to leave. The Bulls has been a mess since he arrived and if he's now been told Boylen will stay no matter what then what is he supposed to think. It's easy to create a rumor out of this quagmire but the reality...? We shall see.
MeloRoseNoah wrote:Comparing Markkanen the Euro soft bum to Eddy Curry Shaq Jr is an understatement and a drastic overvaluation of this Euro bust.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#175 » by Jiipee84 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:46 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:
Jiipee84 wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:
Yeah, if. What you obviously didn't understand was ZOMG explaining there's no smoke. Unless you can provide us a quote from an interview by Markkanen saying he wants out. Did you even read the opening tweet?


Why would any professional sport journalist like Joe Cowley, KC Johnson etc
would come up with and tell false rumors of transfer without any reliable source.
So it is that now that such rumors are circulating something is truly happening in the background.


Why would John Paxson lie through his teeth to the media and go on record for...
https://pippenainteasy.com/2020/02/07/chicago-bulls-paxson-doesnt-think-lauri-markkanen-is-unhappy-in-windy-city/

John Paxson responded to speculation that Lauri Markkanen is not happy in Chicago. The truth is, everyone on the team is probably disgruntled with the Bulls’ 19-33 record heading into Thursday.

“Lauri, we believe in at a high level and we view him as a cornerstone player,” Paxson said. “It’s our responsibility to help him become the type of player we believe he can be. We’ve had direct communication with him, with his agent … we’ve never been told Lauri doesn’t want to be here.


Everybody has an agenda. Reporters try to create clickbaits, Paxson wants to avoid turbulence... maybe Lauri wants to test his value and get rid of Boylen. Who knows.

To me fire you mentioned is a concrete trade offer on the table, smoke probably Lauri going public he wants out. Heck, if he's smart you'd expect him wanting to leave. The Bulls has been a mess since he arrived and if he's now been told Boylen will stay no matter what then what is he supposed to think. It's easy to create a rumor out of this quagmire but the reality...? We shall see.


Maybe this rumor is false information or just media game we ( Bulls fans ) can't know that because Bulls management won't tell it.
Paxson is a part of Bulls management staff so of course his job is avoid turbulence and think that what's best for Bulls.
Personally i don't trust at all on that what Paxson says.

But that what happens behind the scenes and background is not public information until it is officially announced.
When Jimmy Butler trade happened even it wasn't public information before 2017 NBA draft

Bulls fans can't know for sure what moves and transfers Bulls management will do in post season.
So lets see what happens when season 2019-2020 is over for Bulls.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#176 » by PaKii94 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:40 am

PaKii94 wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:...but he did last year. Also, I think he will be an elite 3 point shooter. He almost already is.


I don't know how he's almost already an elite 3 point shooter. He's 35.6% from his career and has not improved (ever so slightly worse each year in the league. Beyond that he doesn't take a lot of high difficulty threes that would lower his percentages.


I guess I should have put in the qualifier as "elite shooter for a big man" but he's on his way to becoming an elite shooter in general. Ability should be assessed outside of injury play. First year Lauri was very much a streaky shooter but when he was on fire, he was on fire. Last year, coming back from a serious injury to his SHOOTING elbow, he was around 38% until the fatigue stuff happened.

This year it was whatever his problem was earlier (I do think it was some sort of injury) he was bad for 20 games. But he was at 38% for the last 26, 41% until he sprained his ankle.

We really haven't had a full season of assessing Lauri. I am also getting tired about making excuses about injury but it is what it is. Hovering around 38% on high volume is a high level shooter and I expect him to be at that and probably get better with more NBA years.



Sorry to bump an old thread but I got some more reasoning behind why I think Lauri “almost already is” an elite shooter and why I thought he was a better/more consistent shooter this year than previous years.

I was going through shot charts and Lauri’s stood out to me. This is for rookie year lauri:
Spoiler:
Image

Rook Lauri was cold from the corners, pretty good from left wing, good from top of the key, and poor from the right wing.

--
This is 2nd year Lauri up until he had his fatigue stuff:
Spoiler:
Image

great with one of the corners, great at right wing, decent top of the key, worse from the left wing

So from year 1 to year 2 in my eyes, it was a net improvement in his shooting even if the overall numbers are the same (36.2% vs 36.1%)
--

2020:
Here is the 6 games before the oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

Obviously small sample size but he couldn’t hit ANYTHING on the wing. That was bad. The other zones combine for 50%

Month of oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

He’s pretty much off from everywhere…but the left wing.

Recovered from Oblique to rolled ankle:
Spoiler:
Image

Hot from everywhere… but the right wing. He could have been even hotter

Rolled ankle to the end:
Spoiler:
Image

Back to meh. Not as bad as the cold games but obviously affected.

So to put it together, this year’s chart including all the games:
Spoiler:
Image

Compared to last year, great with both corners now, better top of the key, a bit worse from left wing, huge drop off at right wing which includes playing through injuries.

This to me is still an overall improvement. Yes the wing shooting dipped but Lauri was much more consistent at the top of the key and corners compared to before. To me the big drop off at the right wing is an outlier. I think it’s more likely he improves wing shooting with more practice/reps in the league than his shooting dips from the other zones.

His rookie season he was great from the left wing (39%)
His soph season he was great from the right wing (46%)
His 3rd season he was great from corners/top of the key (40%)

If he can put it all together he’s easily a 40+% shooter from 3. And that includes high volume which is like ~25-30th for overall players and 4-5th for PF/Cs.

--
Final comment, I think we also discussed hot streaks earlier in this thread. Lauri’s hot streaks have been getting longer too which bodes well for consistent high level sustained performance. His rookie season he was hot for 9 games, soph – 11 games, year 3 – 17 games. Rookie season he ran out of games, and the other two years he had health issues break the hot streak.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#177 » by dougthonus » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:05 am

PaKii94 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
I don't know how he's almost already an elite 3 point shooter. He's 35.6% from his career and has not improved (ever so slightly worse each year in the league. Beyond that he doesn't take a lot of high difficulty threes that would lower his percentages.


I guess I should have put in the qualifier as "elite shooter for a big man" but he's on his way to becoming an elite shooter in general. Ability should be assessed outside of injury play. First year Lauri was very much a streaky shooter but when he was on fire, he was on fire. Last year, coming back from a serious injury to his SHOOTING elbow, he was around 38% until the fatigue stuff happened.

This year it was whatever his problem was earlier (I do think it was some sort of injury) he was bad for 20 games. But he was at 38% for the last 26, 41% until he sprained his ankle.

We really haven't had a full season of assessing Lauri. I am also getting tired about making excuses about injury but it is what it is. Hovering around 38% on high volume is a high level shooter and I expect him to be at that and probably get better with more NBA years.



Sorry to bump an old thread but I got some more reasoning behind why I think Lauri “almost already is” an elite shooter and why I thought he was a better/more consistent shooter this year than previous years.

I was going through shot charts and Lauri’s stood out to me. This is for rookie year lauri:
Spoiler:
Image

Rook Lauri was cold from the corners, pretty good from left wing, good from top of the key, and poor from the right wing.

--
This is 2nd year Lauri up until he had his fatigue stuff:
Spoiler:
Image

great with one of the corners, great at right wing, decent top of the key, worse from the left wing

So from year 1 to year 2 in my eyes, it was a net improvement in his shooting even if the overall numbers are the same (36.2% vs 36.1%)
--

2020:
Here is the 6 games before the oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

Obviously small sample size but he couldn’t hit ANYTHING on the wing. That was bad. The other zones combine for 50%

Month of oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

He’s pretty much off from everywhere…but the left wing.

Recovered from Oblique to rolled ankle:
Spoiler:
Image

Hot from everywhere… but the right wing. He could have been even hotter

Rolled ankle to the end:
Spoiler:
Image

Back to meh. Not as bad as the cold games but obviously affected.

So to put it together, this year’s chart including all the games:
Spoiler:
Image

Compared to last year, great with both corners now, better top of the key, a bit worse from left wing, huge drop off at right wing which includes playing through injuries.

This to me is still an overall improvement. Yes the wing shooting dipped but Lauri was much more consistent at the top of the key and corners compared to before. To me the big drop off at the right wing is an outlier. I think it’s more likely he improves wing shooting with more practice/reps in the league than his shooting dips from the other zones.

His rookie season he was great from the left wing (39%)
His soph season he was great from the right wing (46%)
His 3rd season he was great from corners/top of the key (40%)

If he can put it all together he’s easily a 40+% shooter from 3. And that includes high volume which is like ~25-30th for overall players and 4-5th for PF/Cs.

--
Final comment, I think we also discussed hot streaks earlier in this thread. Lauri’s hot streaks have been getting longer too which bodes well for consistent high level sustained performance. His rookie season he was hot for 9 games, soph – 11 games, year 3 – 17 games. Rookie season he ran out of games, and the other two years he had health issues break the hot streak.


This seems like you have taken really small sample sizes to try and extract positive movement.

Overall, he shot below the league average from the three point line this year. You remove data you don't like by saying it doesn't count because he's hurt and then extrapolate out the positive data. Given he's below league average overall, it seems pretty likely going through the same exercise of finding reasons to exclude negative data on other players would also raise their averages considerably.

It's been three years in the league, it's hard for me to ignore: 36.2%, 36.1%, 34.4% as his numbers from the three point line and pretend he's improving. If you want to say the injuries caused him to lower his percentages, sure, probably by about 2%.

The other thing is his three point shot type:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628374/shots-dash/

95.6% of his 3s are catch and shoot, assisted, 0 dribbles, which shows very little versatility. An elite three point shooter can shoot threes off the dribble and shoot in tight spaces.

56% of his attempts are considered wide open
38% of his attempt are considered open
6% of his attempts are considered tight
0% of his attempts are considered very tight

Compared to a couple other big men 3 point shooters:
Townes 25% of his shots are not catch and shoot, only 45% of his attempts are considered wide open
Porzingis 11% of his shots are not catch and shoot, only 44% of his attempts are considered wide open

The one thing I think you can say is there just aren't many pure big men shooters out there who are any good though. Here's a list of Forward/Centers that have over 200 attempts and most are pretty awful percentage wise.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2020&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a&c1comp=gt&c1val=200&order_by=ws

Lauri is 3rd in percentage on that list as there really just aren't many big men shooting a lot of threes. In this sense, he's still more unique than we'd credit. There shooting revolution really hasn't hit big men that much. It's just that teams are going smaller much more frequently. Gets into a different discussion of course.

Outside of actually shooting much better, the most useful thing Lauri could do would be to become a solid defensive center, he'd then provide a huge competitive advantage with his shooting. At PF, I'm not sure he really provides any competitive advantage vs starting a guy like Otto Porter at PF.
sco
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#178 » by sco » Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:46 pm

dougthonus wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
I guess I should have put in the qualifier as "elite shooter for a big man" but he's on his way to becoming an elite shooter in general. Ability should be assessed outside of injury play. First year Lauri was very much a streaky shooter but when he was on fire, he was on fire. Last year, coming back from a serious injury to his SHOOTING elbow, he was around 38% until the fatigue stuff happened.

This year it was whatever his problem was earlier (I do think it was some sort of injury) he was bad for 20 games. But he was at 38% for the last 26, 41% until he sprained his ankle.

We really haven't had a full season of assessing Lauri. I am also getting tired about making excuses about injury but it is what it is. Hovering around 38% on high volume is a high level shooter and I expect him to be at that and probably get better with more NBA years.



Sorry to bump an old thread but I got some more reasoning behind why I think Lauri “almost already is” an elite shooter and why I thought he was a better/more consistent shooter this year than previous years.

I was going through shot charts and Lauri’s stood out to me. This is for rookie year lauri:
Spoiler:
Image

Rook Lauri was cold from the corners, pretty good from left wing, good from top of the key, and poor from the right wing.

--
This is 2nd year Lauri up until he had his fatigue stuff:
Spoiler:
Image

great with one of the corners, great at right wing, decent top of the key, worse from the left wing

So from year 1 to year 2 in my eyes, it was a net improvement in his shooting even if the overall numbers are the same (36.2% vs 36.1%)
--

2020:
Here is the 6 games before the oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

Obviously small sample size but he couldn’t hit ANYTHING on the wing. That was bad. The other zones combine for 50%

Month of oblique injury:
Spoiler:
Image

He’s pretty much off from everywhere…but the left wing.

Recovered from Oblique to rolled ankle:
Spoiler:
Image

Hot from everywhere… but the right wing. He could have been even hotter

Rolled ankle to the end:
Spoiler:
Image

Back to meh. Not as bad as the cold games but obviously affected.

So to put it together, this year’s chart including all the games:
Spoiler:
Image

Compared to last year, great with both corners now, better top of the key, a bit worse from left wing, huge drop off at right wing which includes playing through injuries.

This to me is still an overall improvement. Yes the wing shooting dipped but Lauri was much more consistent at the top of the key and corners compared to before. To me the big drop off at the right wing is an outlier. I think it’s more likely he improves wing shooting with more practice/reps in the league than his shooting dips from the other zones.

His rookie season he was great from the left wing (39%)
His soph season he was great from the right wing (46%)
His 3rd season he was great from corners/top of the key (40%)

If he can put it all together he’s easily a 40+% shooter from 3. And that includes high volume which is like ~25-30th for overall players and 4-5th for PF/Cs.

--
Final comment, I think we also discussed hot streaks earlier in this thread. Lauri’s hot streaks have been getting longer too which bodes well for consistent high level sustained performance. His rookie season he was hot for 9 games, soph – 11 games, year 3 – 17 games. Rookie season he ran out of games, and the other two years he had health issues break the hot streak.


This seems like you have taken really small sample sizes to try and extract positive movement.

Overall, he shot below the league average from the three point line this year. You remove data you don't like by saying it doesn't count because he's hurt and then extrapolate out the positive data. Given he's below league average overall, it seems pretty likely going through the same exercise of finding reasons to exclude negative data on other players would also raise their averages considerably.

It's been three years in the league, it's hard for me to ignore: 36.2%, 36.1%, 34.4% as his numbers from the three point line and pretend he's improving. If you want to say the injuries caused him to lower his percentages, sure, probably by about 2%.

The other thing is his three point shot type:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628374/shots-dash/

95.6% of his 3s are catch and shoot, assisted, 0 dribbles, which shows very little versatility. An elite three point shooter can shoot threes off the dribble and shoot in tight spaces.

56% of his attempts are considered wide open
38% of his attempt are considered open
6% of his attempts are considered tight
0% of his attempts are considered very tight

Compared to a couple other big men 3 point shooters:
Townes 25% of his shots are not catch and shoot, only 45% of his attempts are considered wide open
Porzingis 11% of his shots are not catch and shoot, only 44% of his attempts are considered wide open

The one thing I think you can say is there just aren't many pure big men shooters out there who are any good though. Here's a list of Forward/Centers that have over 200 attempts and most are pretty awful percentage wise.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2020&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a&c1comp=gt&c1val=200&order_by=ws

Lauri is 3rd in percentage on that list as there really just aren't many big men shooting a lot of threes. In this sense, he's still more unique than we'd credit. There shooting revolution really hasn't hit big men that much. It's just that teams are going smaller much more frequently. Gets into a different discussion of course.

Outside of actually shooting much better, the most useful thing Lauri could do would be to become a solid defensive center, he'd then provide a huge competitive advantage with his shooting. At PF, I'm not sure he really provides any competitive advantage vs starting a guy like Otto Porter at PF.

IMO, being great offensively, beyond making shots, is using your "advantage" to create space (and presumably give you a better chance at making shots). At PF, Lauri was supposed to have the height to get off his shots with more space, but so far, even guards have negated his advantage. Unless or until he can do that. He's only a marginal starting talent.
:clap:
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#179 » by ChettheJet » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:14 pm

OK overreaction nation, did you happen to notice the Feb 6, 2020 date on the post? Have you heard anything in the last 4 months when Lauri and his agent had every opportunity to leak out stories of how much he wants to be gone? No you haven't because this WAS just some sportsradio loudmouth that wasn't getting much attention so he threw something out there
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#180 » by OzmanTheWizard » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:29 pm

I can’t believe that people still think Lauri is some kind of special player that you build around. At best, he’s the next Keith Van Horn, which is the fourth or fifth option on a contender.


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