Coronavirus

[Dresden]

Also, it appears Spain is having just as many problems protecting it's medical workers as we are:

"Spain’s severely strained health service has 9,444 workers infected with Covid-19, a figure Amnesty International says is the highest among countries affected by the outbreak.
The number is nearly 15 percent of Spain’s total of 64,059 infected cases and has increased considerably in recent days.
Spanish health workers have been saying they are seriously lacking in basic protective material, such as masks, gloves and gowns. Hospitals are full and approaching the breaking point in many cities.
The Spanish branch of Amnesty issued a statement demanding Spain do more to protect the health workers, saying “authorities cannot make more excuses: It’s their obligation to protect those who protect us and to do it before it is too late.”
Spanish health officials say they are doing their utmost to get material to all."

[BigUps]

Its safe to say nobody was fully prepared for this. Some were more prepared than others, but no country/state has figured this out entirely. Thats to be expected too. Nothing at this level has ever occurred. The key to this will be not letting it happen a second time. The learnings from this pandemic will pave the way for how we handle future outbreaks and how prepared we'll be for them.

[P.C.]

Protecting the economy is important but you always have to play the long game. I don’t buy for one second his “there will be more suicides due to a bad economy than deaths due to corona.”

yeah, but quality of life concerns are more complicated than body count

Right, but if the numbers in Germany are real, the US could have averted this whole mess if it had available, dependable testing from day one. The economic chaos looks to be self inflicted; which is what you get when you have a leader who is only consider about appearances and not results.

[MrSparkle]

Now the true chaos will begin.

Here’s the thing: China, Italy, they had isolated the infected parts of the country and aggressively shut down the rest.

People have been flying a lot. Returning from vacations, driving to their folk across the country.

Two weeks from now, it’s gonna be a 50 state problem with still no federal leadership/control. This is why Trump f*ed it all up. He’s still bobbling the football and it’s already too late.

US is going to have more cases then the rest of the world combined.

[CBS7]

Just some numbers..

The US will likely cross 100k cases today, 3 weeks after the world crossed 100k cases.

The world is curently at 570k cases with 26k deaths.

A lot of people are pointing at the death rate - 26k deaths in 570k cases is 4.5% - and pointing how since the vast majority of cases are probably not documented, the actual death rate is probably 10-100x lower.

However, that death rate doesn't take into account the active cases. Plenty of people who have it, who haven't died yet, will die. Of actual closed documented cases, the death rate is 17%. (156k closed cases, 130k recovered, 26k deaths)

As the healthcare system gets more and more overwhelmed, we're going to see an increase in death rate. Doctors and nurses are getting sick in huge numbers which also doesn't bode well. Not to mention the increased deaths in non Covid-19 related causes because of the mentioned strain on the healthcare system.

This is far from over. We already had a family member's wedding cancelled in mid April. We're going to have to start wondering about the ones in late May and mid July as well.

[Habs72]

Finnish app in development for datamapping areas where people are having fever. Requires anonymous reporting to the app from sick people.

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_title

[coldfish]

Just some numbers..

The US will likely cross 100k cases today, 3 weeks after the world crossed 100k cases.

The world is curently at 570k cases with 26k deaths.

A lot of people are pointing at the death rate - 26k deaths in 570k cases is 4.5% - and pointing how since the vast majority of cases are probably not documented, the actual death rate is probably 10-100x lower.

However, that death rate doesn't take into account the active cases. Plenty of people who have it, who haven't died yet, will die. Of actual closed documented cases, the death rate is 17%. (156k closed cases, 130k recovered, 26k deaths)

As the healthcare system gets more and more overwhelmed, we're going to see an increase in death rate. Doctors and nurses are getting sick in huge numbers which also doesn't bode well. Not to mention the increased deaths in non Covid-19 related causes because of the mentioned strain on the healthcare system.

This is far from over. We already had a family member's wedding cancelled in mid April. We're going to have to start wondering about the ones in late May and mid July as well.

The city of Wuhan has 11 million people. The virus showed up there in November and had a completely free run with no quarantine or response for 2 months. It is reported that roughly 50,000 people got the virus and 2,000 died. That's 0.018% dead and 0.45% infected. . . . after two months of a completely free run.

Something about that doesn't make much sense, does it? Only 50,000 of 11,000,000? Really?

The US was getting its first community spread cases roughly a month ago. Imagine if the US, right now was doing no social distancing, no shutdowns, anything for another month. Even going so far as to arrest anyone who brought it up. If that happened, how much would it spread through the US?

Even in Italy, they had a shutdown and took it as an opportunity to hang out in tourist spots together. They played soccer games with lots of infected people in packed stadiums. There are 60 million people in Italy. 10,000 have died and 86,000 have it. That's a death rate of 0.0167% and infection rate of 0.13%. Again, really?

Let's not forget, H1N1 infected roughly 60 MILLION americans over a few month stretch.

This stuff just doesn't add up. The numbers don't make sense. If 0.018% of us are going to die and most of them are over the age of 60, it doesn't sound so bad, does it?

Summary: I do think we should take this very seriously. I also think that the published numbers are complete crap. When you see stuff like 15% death rate on closed cases its horrifying. I strongly think that is bad information.

[coldfish]

Now the true chaos will begin.

Here’s the thing: China, Italy, they had isolated the infected parts of the country and aggressively shut down the rest.

People have been flying a lot. Returning from vacations, driving to their folk across the country.

Two weeks from now, it’s gonna be a 50 state problem with still no federal leadership/control. This is why Trump f*ed it all up. He’s still bobbling the football and it’s already too late.

US is going to have more cases then the rest of the world combined.

The US was always going to have more cases than the rest of the world combined because the rest of the world is lying. The US is also lying by restricting testing to only severe cases but even then, we are testing more than most countries which is why our death rate is on the low side.

I wouldn't be surprised if China had more cases in reality than the US has people.

[AKfanatic]

Now the true chaos will begin.

Here’s the thing: China, Italy, they had isolated the infected parts of the country and aggressively shut down the rest.

People have been flying a lot. Returning from vacations, driving to their folk across the country.

Two weeks from now, it’s gonna be a 50 state problem with still no federal leadership/control. This is why Trump f*ed it all up. He’s still bobbling the football and it’s already too late.

US is going to have more cases then the rest of the world combined.

The US was always going to have more cases than the rest of the world combined because the rest of the world is lying. The US is also lying by restricting testing to only severe cases but even then, we are testing more than most countries which is why our death rate is on the low side.

I wouldn't be surprised if China had more cases in reality than the US has people.

I speak to some people in China almost daily, a few that I helped to teach English that now act as English teachers in Beijing, Shanghai, Shangqiu, Hangzhou, and a couple other places. They all tell me that most everyone they know is either sick or has been sick. Given some of the video they share with me, the numbers are likely staggering.


Side note: if you ever speak to someone from China with impressively bad English, it’s likely my fault....

[coldfish]

Now the true chaos will begin.

Here’s the thing: China, Italy, they had isolated the infected parts of the country and aggressively shut down the rest.

People have been flying a lot. Returning from vacations, driving to their folk across the country.

Two weeks from now, it’s gonna be a 50 state problem with still no federal leadership/control. This is why Trump f*ed it all up. He’s still bobbling the football and it’s already too late.

US is going to have more cases then the rest of the world combined.

The US was always going to have more cases than the rest of the world combined because the rest of the world is lying. The US is also lying by restricting testing to only severe cases but even then, we are testing more than most countries which is why our death rate is on the low side.

I wouldn't be surprised if China had more cases in reality than the US has people.

I speak to some people in China almost daily, a few that I helped to teach English that now act as English teachers in Beijing, Shanghai, Shangqiu, Hangzhou, and a couple other places. They all tell me that most everyone they know is either sick or has been sick. Given some of the video they share with me, the numbers are likely staggering.


Side note: if you ever speak to someone from China with impressively bad English, it’s likely my fault....

Someone at some point is going to figure out that China had closer to 500 million cases than 80,000. They just don't want to shut down their economy so they are letting it play out and not testing.

[CBS7]

Just some numbers..

The US will likely cross 100k cases today, 3 weeks after the world crossed 100k cases.

The world is curently at 570k cases with 26k deaths.

A lot of people are pointing at the death rate - 26k deaths in 570k cases is 4.5% - and pointing how since the vast majority of cases are probably not documented, the actual death rate is probably 10-100x lower.

However, that death rate doesn't take into account the active cases. Plenty of people who have it, who haven't died yet, will die. Of actual closed documented cases, the death rate is 17%. (156k closed cases, 130k recovered, 26k deaths)

As the healthcare system gets more and more overwhelmed, we're going to see an increase in death rate. Doctors and nurses are getting sick in huge numbers which also doesn't bode well. Not to mention the increased deaths in non Covid-19 related causes because of the mentioned strain on the healthcare system.

This is far from over. We already had a family member's wedding cancelled in mid April. We're going to have to start wondering about the ones in late May and mid July as well.

The city of Wuhan has 11 million people. The virus showed up there in November and had a completely free run with no quarantine or response for 2 months. It is reported that roughly 50,000 people got the virus and 2,000 died. That's 0.018% dead and 0.45% infected. . . . after two months of a completely free run.

Something about that doesn't make much sense, does it? Only 50,000 of 11,000,000? Really?

The US was getting its first community spread cases roughly a month ago. Imagine if the US, right now was doing no social distancing, no shutdowns, anything for another month. Even going so far as to arrest anyone who brought it up. If that happened, how much would it spread through the US?

Even in Italy, they had a shutdown and took it as an opportunity to hang out in tourist spots together. They played soccer games with lots of infected people in packed stadiums. There are 60 million people in Italy. 10,000 have died and 86,000 have it. That's a death rate of 0.0167% and infection rate of 0.13%. Again, really?

Let's not forget, H1N1 infected roughly 60 MILLION americans over a few month stretch.

This stuff just doesn't add up. The numbers don't make sense. If 0.018% of us are going to die and most of them are over the age of 60, it doesn't sound so bad, does it?

Summary: I do think we should take this very seriously. I also think that the published numbers are complete crap. When you see stuff like 15% death rate on closed cases its horrifying. I strongly think that is bad information.

The numbers are bad, as you stated in an earlier post (and subsequent posts). There just aren't enough tests. And I don't trust China's numbers for a second as you also mentioned. I don't think the final death rate will be 17% or 4.5% or probably even 1%. The 17% number is grossly overstated as we've probably already had thousands of not hundreds of thousands of undocumented cases recover.

I really don't know what to think. We have some info that seems reassuring and some that doesn't. But I do think we won't see peak number of documented cases in the US for at least a month or two. Based on Italy/Wuhan/Diamond princess, I'm guessing we "only" see around 100k deaths from the virus in the States this year.

[AKfanatic]

The US was always going to have more cases than the rest of the world combined because the rest of the world is lying. The US is also lying by restricting testing to only severe cases but even then, we are testing more than most countries which is why our death rate is on the low side.

I wouldn't be surprised if China had more cases in reality than the US has people.

I speak to some people in China almost daily, a few that I helped to teach English that now act as English teachers in Beijing, Shanghai, Shangqiu, Hangzhou, and a couple other places. They all tell me that most everyone they know is either sick or has been sick. Given some of the video they share with me, the numbers are likely staggering.


Side note: if you ever speak to someone from China with impressively bad English, it’s likely my fault....

Someone at some point is going to figure out that China had closer to 500 million cases than 80,000. They just don't want to shut down their economy so they are letting it play out and not testing.

Yeah, the numbers will be massive. A lot of people have been in Chicago, or New York... but the level of people, the pure mass of humanity in places like Beijing is crazy. I remember it often blowing my mind that at 3 am on a Wednesday there would be thousands of people just walking around doing their thing in Beijing. The amount of contacts made in such a place, and the ease of spread, just points to some very very high numbers.

[CBS7]

If the death rate for closed documented cases stays around 15% (based on the worldwide number, may go up, may go down), and only 10% of cases are documented (so 1 million o 0.3% of the US population actually has it), that means the *actual* death rate will be around 1.5%. If only 1% of cases are documented (so 10 million or 3% of the US population has it), than the *actual* death rate will be around .15%. Will the strain on the healthcare system make that go up significantly? How long do we expect exponential growth to continue?

I do find it hard to put any stock into other countries' numbers, though. Not that I think many of them (outside of China and a few others) are outright lying, its just the obvious issue of not enough testing.

Also, the US's death rate on closed cases is far worse. We've seen 816 recover and 1481 deaths. A 65% rate, however misleading that may be.

I don't really have a point to these posts, just thinking out loud.

[Kurt Heimlich]

If the death rate for closed documented cases stays around 15% (based on the worldwide number, may go up, may go down), and only 10% of cases are documented (so 1 million o 0.3% of the US population actually has it), that means the *actual* death rate will be around 1.5%. If only 1% of cases are documented (so 10 million or 3% of the US population has it), than the *actual* death rate will be around .15%. Will the strain on the healthcare system make that go up significantly? How long do we expect exponential growth to continue?

I do find it hard to put any stock into other countries' numbers, though. Not that I think many of them (outside of China and a few others) are outright lying, its just the obvious issue of not enough testing.

Also, the US's death rate on closed cases is far worse. We've seen 816 recover and 1481 deaths. A 65% rate, however misleading that may be.

I don't really have a point to these posts, just thinking out loud.

Recovery is just a function of time. Roughly two weeks is when most are marked "recovered" and obviously the vast bulk of confirmed sick in the U.S. have been confirmed sick within that 2 week window. Comparing "recoveries" (i.e. those who tested positive more than two weeks ago) to deaths is truly meaningless right now.

[CBS7]

If the death rate for closed documented cases stays around 15% (based on the worldwide number, may go up, may go down), and only 10% of cases are documented (so 1 million o 0.3% of the US population actually has it), that means the *actual* death rate will be around 1.5%. If only 1% of cases are documented (so 10 million or 3% of the US population has it), than the *actual* death rate will be around .15%. Will the strain on the healthcare system make that go up significantly? How long do we expect exponential growth to continue?

I do find it hard to put any stock into other countries' numbers, though. Not that I think many of them (outside of China and a few others) are outright lying, its just the obvious issue of not enough testing.

Also, the US's death rate on closed cases is far worse. We've seen 816 recover and 1481 deaths. A 65% rate, however misleading that may be.

I don't really have a point to these posts, just thinking out loud.

Recovery is just a function of time. Roughly two weeks is when most are marked "recovered" and obviously the vast bulk of confirmed sick in the U.S. have been confirmed sick within that 2 week window. Comparing "recoveries" (i.e. those who tested positive more than two weeks ago) to deaths is truly meaningless right now.

I agree, this makes sense. We'll be seeing an increase in recovered cases in a similar pattern as new cases, just lagging a couple weeks behind. 2 weeks ago the US had 2200 cases, so the numbers match up. I wasn't sure what protocol was being used to classify cases as recovered.

[AKfanatic]

First hospitals will become overwhelmed...

Then those we rely on to save us will become the victims....

Read on Twitter

But yeah, the economy....

[Habs72]

Recovery times are twice the amount of time than the times of dying on average. Hence deathrate is going up atm on reported cases.

[AKfanatic]

Read on Twitter

[AKfanatic]

As if things aren’t bad enough.....

Timothy Wilson, 36, was injured Tuesday when FBI agents served a probable cause arrest warrant in Belton after a long-running domestic terrorism investigation, according to a statement Wednesday from Timothy Langan, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Kansas City office.

The statement did not detail what happened when agents served the warrant, but said Wilson was armed when he was injured and died later at a hospital.

A monthslong investigation determined that Wilson was a potentially violent extremist, motivated by religious, racial and anti-government beliefs, according to the statement. He had planned for several months to carry out a bombing and decided to target a Kansas City-area hospital using a “vehicle-borne” improvised explosive.

Wilson chose a hospital that was providing critical care during the current coronavirus pandemic and had taken steps to acquire materials to build the bomb in an attempt to cause “severe harm and mass casualties,” according to the statement.

https://time.com/5810734/fbi-terrorist-bomb-coronavirus-hospital/

[coldfish]

If the death rate for closed documented cases stays around 15% (based on the worldwide number, may go up, may go down), and only 10% of cases are documented (so 1 million o 0.3% of the US population actually has it), that means the *actual* death rate will be around 1.5%. If only 1% of cases are documented (so 10 million or 3% of the US population has it), than the *actual* death rate will be around .15%. Will the strain on the healthcare system make that go up significantly? How long do we expect exponential growth to continue?

I do find it hard to put any stock into other countries' numbers, though. Not that I think many of them (outside of China and a few others) are outright lying, its just the obvious issue of not enough testing.

Also, the US's death rate on closed cases is far worse. We've seen 816 recover and 1481 deaths. A 65% rate, however misleading that may be.

I don't really have a point to these posts, just thinking out loud.

I mentioned here before I had some symptoms and tried to get tested. In Ohio, they are so short of tests that they will only test the highest risk people. If you are under 70 and can still breathe, you aren't getting a test.

That is what we refer to as selection bias. It would be like going around the world and asking people who were 7 feet tall if they ever played in the NBA and then reporting that 17% of all people will go on to play in the NBA at some point when the real number is 0.00014%.