Coronavirus

[transplant]

Though I've been tracking the available stats for a couple weeks, I have zero confidence in the "confirmed cases" as being remotely close to the number of actual infections. I put a lot more stock in the death #s, at least in the US. On what is likely a significantly understated # of infections, the US death rate has held well below 2%. In relative terms, I view this fairly positively, but understand that the US situation isn't at a fully-mature state.

We know a little bit more about where we are each day, but uncertainty remains one of the most frustrating aspects of this crisis. There's not much we can do about this. What we can do is act responsibly as individuals and use your influence to encourage others to do the same.

Be smart and safe and let this play out.

[Chi town]

As if things aren’t bad enough.....

Timothy Wilson, 36, was injured Tuesday when FBI agents served a probable cause arrest warrant in Belton after a long-running domestic terrorism investigation, according to a statement Wednesday from Timothy Langan, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Kansas City office.

The statement did not detail what happened when agents served the warrant, but said Wilson was armed when he was injured and died later at a hospital.

A monthslong investigation determined that Wilson was a potentially violent extremist, motivated by religious, racial and anti-government beliefs, according to the statement. He had planned for several months to carry out a bombing and decided to target a Kansas City-area hospital using a “vehicle-borne” improvised explosive.

Wilson chose a hospital that was providing critical care during the current coronavirus pandemic and had taken steps to acquire materials to build the bomb in an attempt to cause “severe harm and mass casualties,” according to the statement.

https://time.com/5810734/fbi-terrorist-bomb-coronavirus-hospital/

If that happens even once here in the states it will be outright panic.

[Chi town]

As many of us have been saying...
- China's numbers are complete BS and most likely they have millions that have had the virus
- There are so many people infected that can't get a test that the reporting is WAY UNDERESTIMATED
- It seems like everyone responds to the virus differently... some barely feel anything... others are severe quickly

Timeline...
- Talked to a SF city employee on the front lines and they said shelter in place for at least two more weeks and if we peak and numbers begin to fall like predicted we will stay shelter in place for another 2 weeks (6weeks total).
- IMO we are 8 weeks out from whole country peaking and then falling back down much like China and South Korea
- Stimulus will take 3 weeks to payout people and businesses
- Our economy with stimulus can probably last 3 weeks with near national shut down... Don't see Trump ordering any national shut down as it will hurt the stock market too much and cause fear and panic
- I think we are 8 weeks to new normal where most people return to work
- New normal will consist of many people still being apprehensive and suspicious, working from home more often, eating out less... this will hurt the economy and speed up the full on arrival of the recession
- I think it will be July/August before fans are in stadiums again
- I think students will go back to school like planned in August
- I think 2020 will be brutal for the stock market and jobs. Real estate will drop 20% and commercial real estate will be hit hard with so many people electing to cut costs with more workers working from home and conferences/training being streamed... lots of domestic travel will be eliminated for virtual
- Residential real estate dropping is what normally indicates recession. This recession was coming with unsustainable growth. Factor in virus, new normal of less travel, more vitural, more working from home, less large gatherings... and we will have an economy that looks a lot different moving forward.

[Michael Jackson]

As many of us have been saying...
- China's numbers are complete BS and most likely they have millions that have had the virus
- There are so many people infected that can't get a test that the reporting is WAY UNDERESTIMATED
- It seems like everyone responds to the virus differently... some barely feel anything... others are severe quickly

Timeline...
- Talked to a SF city employee on the front lines and they said shelter in place for at least two more weeks and if we peak and numbers begin to fall like predicted we will stay shelter in place for another 2 weeks (6weeks total).
- IMO we are 8 weeks out from whole country peaking and then falling back down much like China and South Korea
- Stimulus will take 3 weeks to payout people and businesses
- Our economy with stimulus can probably last 3 weeks with near national shut down... Don't see Trump ordering any national shut down as it will hurt the stock market too much and cause fear and panic
- I think we are 8 weeks to new normal where most people return to work
- New normal will consist of many people still being apprehensive and suspicious, working from home more often, eating out less... this will hurt the economy and speed up the full on arrival of the recession
- I think it will be July/August before fans are in stadiums again
- I think students will go back to school like planned in August
- I think 2020 will be brutal for the stock market and jobs. Real estate will drop 20% and commercial real estate will be hit hard with so many people electing to cut costs with more workers working from home and conferences/training being streamed... lots of domestic travel will be eliminated for virtual
- Residential real estate dropping is what normally indicates recession. This recession was coming with unsustainable growth. Factor in virus, new normal of less travel, more vitural, more working from home, less large gatherings... and we will have an economy that looks a lot different moving forward.

That is a very realistic outlook. Everything getting up and running back to normal may never happen and if it does it will be really slow. If this takes 18 months to get a vaccine, travel is on a major hiatus until then. Many companies will downsize what they need for space as they will implement more work from home and as you said way more virtual meetings. The group that had been against this will now be more acclimated to this style of work by the time this is over so it won't be a big change but it will absolutely change the workplace structure for a lot of people. How we do business will be altered without a doubt.

I mean this could go a number of ways but with WFH, less travel etc... when the economy stabilizes, I could see the residential market potentially getting stronger as people will invest more in their homes they have had to spend so much time in. It could happen but that is very speculative.

Public entertainment is going to be the interesting thing to see how long it takes for that to stabilize. I would assume a huge spike initially from all who were pent up, but I wonder if overall, if people will stay home more and play it safe?

[Chi town]

As many of us have been saying...
- China's numbers are complete BS and most likely they have millions that have had the virus
- There are so many people infected that can't get a test that the reporting is WAY UNDERESTIMATED
- It seems like everyone responds to the virus differently... some barely feel anything... others are severe quickly

Timeline...
- Talked to a SF city employee on the front lines and they said shelter in place for at least two more weeks and if we peak and numbers begin to fall like predicted we will stay shelter in place for another 2 weeks (6weeks total).
- IMO we are 8 weeks out from whole country peaking and then falling back down much like China and South Korea
- Stimulus will take 3 weeks to payout people and businesses
- Our economy with stimulus can probably last 3 weeks with near national shut down... Don't see Trump ordering any national shut down as it will hurt the stock market too much and cause fear and panic
- I think we are 8 weeks to new normal where most people return to work
- New normal will consist of many people still being apprehensive and suspicious, working from home more often, eating out less... this will hurt the economy and speed up the full on arrival of the recession
- I think it will be July/August before fans are in stadiums again
- I think students will go back to school like planned in August
- I think 2020 will be brutal for the stock market and jobs. Real estate will drop 20% and commercial real estate will be hit hard with so many people electing to cut costs with more workers working from home and conferences/training being streamed... lots of domestic travel will be eliminated for virtual
- Residential real estate dropping is what normally indicates recession. This recession was coming with unsustainable growth. Factor in virus, new normal of less travel, more vitural, more working from home, less large gatherings... and we will have an economy that looks a lot different moving forward.

That is a very realistic outlook. Everything getting up and running back to normal may never happen and if it does it will be really slow. If this takes 18 months to get a vaccine, travel is on a major hiatus until then. Many companies will downsize what they need for space as they will implement more work from home and as you said way more virtual meetings. The group that had been against this will now be more acclimated to this style of work by the time this is over so it won't be a big change but it will absolutely change the workplace structure for a lot of people. How we do business will be altered without a doubt.

I mean this could go a number of ways but with WFH, less travel etc... when the economy stabilizes, I could see the residential market potentially getting stronger as people will invest more in their homes they have had to spend so much time in. It could happen but that is very speculative.

Public entertainment is going to be the interesting thing to see how long it takes for that to stabilize. I would assume a huge spike initially from all who were pent up, but I wonder if overall, if people will stay home more and play it safe?

I know many of us are working way more now and with kids home it’s like having two jobs. Lots of friends working in tech are are on international calls at all hours. I’m hearing 75 work weeks these pst couple weeks. Not sustainable. Everyone will need a vacay when it’s over... but where will everyone be willing to go.

[AKfanatic]

"He calls all the governors. I tell him —I mean, I'm a different type of person— I say, 'Mike, don't call the governor of Washington. You're wasting your time ... Don't call the woman in Michigan.'"

Dear Leader is basically telling the people of Michigan, “you’re woman governor hasn’t adequately kissed my ring... so your life isn’t a priority”

[Dresden]

"He calls all the governors. I tell him —I mean, I'm a different type of person— I say, 'Mike, don't call the governor of Washington. You're wasting your time ... Don't call the woman in Michigan.'"

Dear Leader is basically telling the people of Michigan, “you’re woman governor hasn’t adequately kissed my ring... so your life isn’t a priority”

Supposedly, earlier in the week he said something to the effect that he would help them (states), only if they "treated me well".

[AKfanatic]

"He calls all the governors. I tell him —I mean, I'm a different type of person— I say, 'Mike, don't call the governor of Washington. You're wasting your time ... Don't call the woman in Michigan.'"

Dear Leader is basically telling the people of Michigan, “you’re woman governor hasn’t adequately kissed my ring... so your life isn’t a priority”

Supposedly, earlier in the week he said something to the effect that he would help them (states), only if they "treated me well".

Read on Twitter

Yeah, there’s quotes out there in that regard.

It’s not at all surprising. One only needs to go look at how he spoke of leadership in blue states or Dem areas after disasters and compare it to how he’s responded after a natural disaster in red states.

There’s a ton on “Dems are playing politics” with a crisis talk, but playing politics with a crisis is his go to move. The pettiness, the narcissism... it’s absolutely insane. The fact that it’s defended by other “leaders” and loudly defended by certain “news” outlets and their viewers shows everything that is wrong with American politics at this moment in time.

[Kurt Heimlich]

I hate being hyperbolic but "Don't be a cutie pie, Ok?" has to be the greatest presidential quote of all time. (sarcasm...and a thousand apologies to Illinois' own Honest Abe)

[dice]

trump effectively says that he will ignore the congressional oversight provision in $500 bil corporate loan portion of stimulus bill, without which it would not have passed:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/trump-congress-coronavirus-relief-oversight-152560

meanwhile, he also changed his mind and decided to use his power to force companies to produce medical supplies...at least in the case of ventilators. better late than never:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/trump-orders-general-motors-to-make-ventilators-under-defense-production-act.html

[AKfanatic]

How long before the medical professionals that are telling their stories and stories of the conditions they’re working in to try to save Americans lives are accused of being “crisis actors”?

[dougthonus]

trump effectively says that he will ignore the congressional oversight provision in $500 bil corporate loan portion of stimulus bill, without which it would not have passed:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/trump-congress-coronavirus-relief-oversight-152560

Well I guess we'll just have a half trillion dollars given to Trump supporters for special interests. I'm sure a ton of that will be kicked back as well towards his re-election campaign. Trump has really made me question the viability of our system of government as a whole.

[dice]

How long before the medical professionals that are telling their stories and stories of the conditions they’re working in to try to save Americans lives are accused of being “crisis actors”?

famous people are already being accused of being paid to pretend to be afflicted, so their "everyday people" counterparts are even more likely to be accused of such

[AKfanatic]

Meanwhile, the “President” takes to twitter to attack a Dem governor (Mi), while at the same time his mouthpiece at Fox is attacking Cuomo in NY.

The playbook is always so transparent, and yet media acts shocked and unable to predict or report on in. It’s always, fail, then shift the blame to the Dems.

This is a sad and pathetic time in America. We have a country run by a petty goon that is applauded by his base while his lack of leadership costs lives.

[dice]

enormous stockpile of coronavirus mass transmission devices found in new orleans:

Watch on YouTube

fauci doughnuts selling like...hotcakes?

[ImSlower]

Ugh. The bar/restaurant I work has a group text that I generally ignore, as it's usually memes in terrible taste one way or another. Well, I just saw today that they organized a party tonight. A **** party. Ten people I work with and and am friends with are giving the world the bird and grouping up. My county down here by St Louis doesn't have many reported cases yet, but garbage like this is going to get it ramping up toward Cook. Absolutely embarrassing. Our country is going to have five times the next highest count of cases within a month, I think.

I do hope this all literally blows over and we are back out with each-other safely soon. I am not looking forward to all these people far from cities saying "See? It was a total over-reaction, no one I knew got it".

I now directly know two people who have lost loved ones. I don't think there will be enormous loss of life in the millions, but I am definitely very scared that someone I know is going to get sick, and that person likely would not have had people like my idiot coworkers not cavorted around instead of just sitting tight like billions of others are trying to do.

[dice]

Ugh. The bar/restaurant I work has a group text that I generally ignore, as it's usually memes in terrible taste one way or another. Well, I just saw today that they organized a party tonight. A **** party. Ten people I work with and and am friends with are giving the world the bird and grouping up. My county down here by St Louis doesn't have many reported cases yet, but garbage like this is going to get it ramping up toward Cook. Absolutely embarrassing. Our country is going to have five times the next highest count of cases within a month, I think.

I do hope this all literally blows over and we are back out with each-other safely soon. I am not looking forward to all these people far from cities saying "See? It was a total over-reaction, no one I knew got it".

I now directly know two people who have lost loved ones. I don't think there will be enormous loss of life in the millions, but I am definitely very scared that someone I know is going to get sick, and that person likely would not have had people like my idiot coworkers not cavorted around instead of just sitting tight like billions of others are trying to do.

you should respond saying "i know two people who have lost loved ones to coronavirus. i will not be attending." if you're willing to deal with the awkwardness at work, that is

[ImSlower]

Ugh. The bar/restaurant I work has a group text that I generally ignore, as it's usually memes in terrible taste one way or another. Well, I just saw today that they organized a party tonight. A **** party. Ten people I work with and and am friends with are giving the world the bird and grouping up. My county down here by St Louis doesn't have many reported cases yet, but garbage like this is going to get it ramping up toward Cook. Absolutely embarrassing. Our country is going to have five times the next highest count of cases within a month, I think.

I do hope this all literally blows over and we are back out with each-other safely soon. I am not looking forward to all these people far from cities saying "See? It was a total over-reaction, no one I knew got it".

I now directly know two people who have lost loved ones. I don't think there will be enormous loss of life in the millions, but I am definitely very scared that someone I know is going to get sick, and that person likely would not have had people like my idiot coworkers not cavorted around instead of just sitting tight like billions of others are trying to do.

you should respond saying "i know two people who have lost loved ones to coronavirus. i will not be attending." if you're willing to deal with the awkwardness at work, that is

Indeed, dice, that was almost literally my exact response. Mine was "Hey guys yes I'm seeing your messages. My friend just lost his dad yesterday to the virus. I'll pass. I won't be responding to this group text again. Stay safe." I'm pretty emotionally biased right now, but between that and some truly awful things they are saying unrelated to the virus in that very chat, I'm pretty strongly considering never working there again. It's a tiny joint, we have all known each other years (one guy has been a waiter there for 36 years since day 1), and I'd be really sad to lose that part of my life. But I'm pretty upset to see such a blatant disregard for safety right in front of me, and minus all the post-shift drinking shenanigans, I'm kind of wondering what the hell I saw in these folks.

On my end, I am staying healthy. I hope some of you are as well. I've been a hard drinker for twenty years and haven't touched a drop since walking out of that joint the day of the shutdown. Working out twice a day, cooking all healthy food. Just 11 days of this and I feel better mind/body/spirit than I have in a long time. I'm going hard on some available online seminars on tech stuff, which I tried to jump into a year ago and went back to the bar industry. I think this time maybe it'll stick. Most of my day-job career friends have salaries keeping them afloat. I am dead broke in a month, and unemployment request seems stuck permanently with the 3.5 or whatever million others trying the same.

I gotta say, a lot of people here on realGM have been very helpful through this, either with their links to studies or reports, or simply telling a story about their families' response, etc. You guys all stay strong and we'll be back to arguing about your stupid wrong opinions and my always correct ones soon!

[AKfanatic]

Read on Twitter

Ah, the undesirables.........

[dice]

reported deaths as percentage of confirmed cases (min 1000 cases):

4.6 WA
4.3 LA
3.2 GA
2.5 MI
2.1 CT
2.0 CA
1.7 CO/OH
1.3 TX
1.2 NJ/NY
1.1 MA
0.9 IL/PA
0.5 TN