OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[League Circles]

What Trump should have said from the very beginning is “Wear a mask and get back to work.”

He’d have a lot more credibility if he did. His anti mask posture is beyond dumb, wreckless, and screams incompetency.

Let us not forget that the CDC and WHO both said don’t wear a mask or you will touch it and get Covid. They were wrong.

Trump should have followed South Korea’s protocol. They masked up the whole time and have crushed Covid.

Trump called it a hoax and said it would go away when it first made it to the United States and he'll never admit he's wrong so he held that dumb stance way too long. Trump could have easily won re-election if he took the virus seriously from the beginning and acted like a leader.

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

Is "herd immunity", however defined, supposed to be impressive or a relief when they still are logging hundreds of new cases per day?

[dice]

What Trump should have said from the very beginning is “Wear a mask and get back to work.”

He’d have a lot more credibility if he did. His anti mask posture is beyond dumb, wreckless, and screams incompetency.

Let us not forget that the CDC and WHO both said don’t wear a mask or you will touch it and get Covid. They were wrong.

Trump should have followed South Korea’s protocol. They masked up the whole time and have crushed Covid.

Trump called it a hoax and said it would go away when it first made it to the United States and he'll never admit he's wrong so he held that dumb stance way too long. Trump could have easily won re-election if he took the virus seriously from the beginning and acted like a leader.

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

not only do they not have herd immunity, but their percentage of the population w/ antibodies is not much higher than neighboring countries. they basically sacrificed a lot more infections, deaths and resources w/ little to show for it on the back end. not even economic benefits:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

i don't necessarily think that it was a foolish experiment as long as their hospital capacity is sufficient, but it sure doesn't appear that the swedish approach will be the go-to in future pandemics

[Chi town]

Trump called it a hoax and said it would go away when it first made it to the United States and he'll never admit he's wrong so he held that dumb stance way too long. Trump could have easily won re-election if he took the virus seriously from the beginning and acted like a leader.

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

Is "herd immunity", however defined, supposed to be impressive or a relief when they still are logging hundreds of new cases per day?

Yes if you consider the win being avoiding hospitalizations and deaths.

[dice]

What Trump should have said from the very beginning is “Wear a mask and get back to work.”

He’d have a lot more credibility if he did. His anti mask posture is beyond dumb, wreckless, and screams incompetency.

Let us not forget that the CDC and WHO both said don’t wear a mask or you will touch it and get Covid. They were wrong.

Trump should have followed South Korea’s protocol. They masked up the whole time and have crushed Covid.

In his speech at the DNC, Biden said on day one he would issue a national mask wearing mandate. Pretty simple step to take, and enormously effective.

To Dice's point about social distancing- there was a case in Springfield MO, about two hair stylists who both tested positive. They worked for several days after feeling ill. But there was mask mandate in force at the time in MO, which they and their customers followed. They contact traced 139 people who were in the salon during the days when the stylists were sick, and not a single one tested positive. They chalk that up to wearing masks (and good hygiene). So even without social distancing, masks alone are very effective.

that is surely proof positive that masks are effective. we should be careful about getting too complacent regarding social distancing based on anecdotal evidence like this, though. there have surely been hundreds of salons nationwide that have contact traced clients after employee(s) tested positive. we're hearing the results of only one of those data points because the outcome was so notable. if 10% of the customers had tested positive it wouldn't be news. indeed, the salon would want to keep that information tightly under wraps

[Dresden]

Trump called it a hoax and said it would go away when it first made it to the United States and he'll never admit he's wrong so he held that dumb stance way too long. Trump could have easily won re-election if he took the virus seriously from the beginning and acted like a leader.

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

not only do they not have herd immunity, but their percentage of the population w/ antibodies is not much higher than neighboring countries. they basically sacrificed a lot more infections, deaths and resources w/ little to show for it on the back end. not even economic benefits:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

i don't necessarily think that it was a foolish experiment as long as their hospital capacity is sufficient, but it sure doesn't appear that the swedish approach will be the go-to in future pandemics

That was my understanding of what is happening in Sweden as well. The number of people who have developed immunity is not nearly enough to achieve herd immunity, even in Stockholm. The unknown is what will happen this fall, if there is a second wave- will Sweden do better than their neighbors when that occurs? Because to this point, they are doing much worse.

[GimmeDat]

Still full lock-down with 8pm curfew here. Obviously sucks, but zero complaints from me. Numbers are going down, we're getting there. Allowed out for 1 hour a day to exercise. The financial support for those who are work affected is much more reasonable than somewhere like the US.

[dice]

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

not only do they not have herd immunity, but their percentage of the population w/ antibodies is not much higher than neighboring countries. they basically sacrificed a lot more infections, deaths and resources w/ little to show for it on the back end. not even economic benefits:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

i don't necessarily think that it was a foolish experiment as long as their hospital capacity is sufficient, but it sure doesn't appear that the swedish approach will be the go-to in future pandemics

That was my understanding of what is happening in Sweden as well. The number of people who have developed immunity is not nearly enough to achieve herd immunity, even in Stockholm. The unknown is what will happen this fall, if there is a second wave- will Sweden do better than their neighbors when that occurs? Because to this point, they are doing much worse.

in the high likelihood that there is a second wave, there is a high likelihood that sweden will again fare worse if they do not change course

[Dresden]

Still full lock-down with 8pm curfew here. Obviously sucks, but zero complaints from me. Numbers are going down, we're getting there. Allowed out for 1 hour a day to exercise. The financial support for those who are work affected is much more reasonable than somewhere like the US.

At least there are plenty of sports to watch now if you are stuck inside. Here in San Francisco, we don't have too many restrictions, other than indoor dining and things like that are prohibited. I was out golfing yesterday, and the only issue was the thick haze in the air from all the wildfires. Not the healthiest environment to be out in right now.

[GimmeDat]

Still full lock-down with 8pm curfew here. Obviously sucks, but zero complaints from me. Numbers are going down, we're getting there. Allowed out for 1 hour a day to exercise. The financial support for those who are work affected is much more reasonable than somewhere like the US.

At least there are plenty of sports to watch now if you are stuck inside. Here in San Francisco, we don't have too many restrictions, other than indoor dining and things like that are prohibited. I was out golfing yesterday, and the only issue was the thick haze in the air from all the wildfires. Not the healthiest environment to be out in right now.

That's true, though NBA is during the mornings here and I'm usually either in at work (I have an essential job) or working from home during that time. We have Aussie Football during nights but I don't really tune into that much these days.

Our restrictions are supposed to be easing up Sep 13th... by god am I looking forward to the day I can catch up with a couple of friends and go have dinner or something. Going to be awesome.

[Ccwatercraft]

Not nearly as weird as preplanning social disobedience that endangers others, spreads a pandemic, and hastens the destruction of our economy in the name of some maliciously misguided and ignorant delusion of constitutional freedom.

Two weirds make it right?

I always hoped I'd end up on YouTube someday because I saved a kitten from a burning building or something wonderful, certainly not because I freaked out and verbally assaulted somebody who exposed their nose over their mask. Not my cup of tea.

I do enjoy the entertainment however, so I maybe I shouldn't discourage anyone.

Who you crappin’? You don’t consider them both wrong.

Ummm. Ok.

No idea why you'd say that but whatever.

[dice]

Two weirds make it right?

I always hoped I'd end up on YouTube someday because I saved a kitten from a burning building or something wonderful, certainly not because I freaked out and verbally assaulted somebody who exposed their nose over their mask. Not my cup of tea.

I do enjoy the entertainment however, so I maybe I shouldn't discourage anyone.

Who you crappin’? You don’t consider them both wrong.

Ummm. Ok.

No idea why you'd say that but whatever.

didn't you say that you don't wear a mask? "you do you" or something to that effect? or is it just the making a scene about it that you disapprove of?

[Ccwatercraft]

Who you crappin’? You don’t consider them both wrong.

Ummm. Ok.

No idea why you'd say that but whatever.

didn't you say that you don't wear a mask? "you do you" or something to that effect? or is it just the making a scene about it that you disapprove of?

That was quite some time ago when my entire county had only a few hundred cases total and maybe a dozen deaths total. We are still doing very well by comparison but could always improve. I've avoided hot spots like Miami-Dade for obvious reasons, but still traveling on planes, just less than last summer by about half.

Re: making a scene, no of course I'm not a fan, especially if someone is preplanning to do so. Ugh.

My largest complaint in FL is the lack of a state wide mandate. It clears up the confusion so quickly when it's universal and compliance numbers increase. But honestly it's almost assumed around me anyway, it's weird to see someone without, they stick out.

[Ccwatercraft]

Some 12,000 crew members still remain on cruise ships in U.S. waters, some of whom have been stranded since March and many of whom have not set foot on land in months.

This is still going unless there is a more recent update.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/thousands-of-cruise-ship-workers-still-stranded-at-sea.amp

[Dresden]

1st confirmed case of someone getting COVID a second time was announced today. Maybe there's a new strain circulating? Or maybe this is just an anomaly of the guy's immune system? We'll see if there are more.

[dice]

1st confirmed case of someone getting COVID a second time was announced today. Maybe there's a new strain circulating? Or maybe this is just an anomaly of the guy's immune system? We'll see if there are more.

someone in the US?

[Ccwatercraft]

1st confirmed case of someone getting COVID a second time was announced today. Maybe there's a new strain circulating? Or maybe this is just an anomaly of the guy's immune system? We'll see if there are more.

someone in the US?

Hong Kong iirc, mid 30's caught mild case in March. (Per radio news a couple hours ago so apologies if misremembering)

[dice]

1st confirmed case of someone getting COVID a second time was announced today. Maybe there's a new strain circulating? Or maybe this is just an anomaly of the guy's immune system? We'll see if there are more.

someone in the US?

Hong Kong iirc, mid 30's caught mild case in March. (Per radio news a couple hours ago so apologies if misremembering)

well, if there's anywhere that a distinctly new strain would be most likely to crop up, i guess it's china

[dice]

antibody tests pretty useless:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200824&instance_id=21573&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=94658923&segment_id=36846&te=1&user_id=7ea4e9d4dbdb5ec9d68d451510e3f47d

concert in china last week:



meanwhile, aukland, new zealand is up to 100 new cases after the country had entirely wiped out the virus months ago

and, as they did briefly w/ hydroxychloroquine, the FDA has authorized emergency approval for expanded use of blood plasma for treating COVID-19

[jmajew]

True.

It has been interesting to track Sweden. They have herd immunity now after being murdered by the media when they peaked. Close friend from Sweden has family in the medical community and some of the stories and articles I’ve read have been fascinating. I’ve pretty much lost all faith in the media.

not only do they not have herd immunity, but their percentage of the population w/ antibodies is not much higher than neighboring countries. they basically sacrificed a lot more infections, deaths and resources w/ little to show for it on the back end. not even economic benefits:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

i don't necessarily think that it was a foolish experiment as long as their hospital capacity is sufficient, but it sure doesn't appear that the swedish approach will be the go-to in future pandemics

That was my understanding of what is happening in Sweden as well. The number of people who have developed immunity is not nearly enough to achieve herd immunity, even in Stockholm. The unknown is what will happen this fall, if there is a second wave- will Sweden do better than their neighbors when that occurs? Because to this point, they are doing much worse.

There is a big debate at what level herd immunity will actually start. There have been some studies that show at 20% herd immunity takes effect, others show 60-70%. This is all mathematical equations, but I'm willing to guess that the more people that get it the growth rate will eventually peak out and start decreasing naturally. So a city like New York, a lot of people got it early on, projected to have 20% of the population having been exposed to it. Was that enough with mask wearing and social distancing to slow down the spread as low as it has? I'm willing to bet my house that the fact they had a large spike originally has had an effect on the growth rate now.

The fair question to ask is was that original spike and high death count worth the lower numbers they have now? I would say no it wasn't worth it, but I can also argue it was too late when the government realized it had already spread that far. The states that saw spikes over the summer actually saw much lower spikes than New York in the Spring. I would argue that is because of increased mask wearing and the social distancing measures put in place by the states. We have to remember the projected New York numbers are actually much higher than the actual due to lack of testing resources.

[Dresden]

Associated Press

FDA chief apologizes for overstating plasma effect on virus

MATTHEW PERRONE and DEB RIECHMANN

August 25, 2020,

WASHINGTON (AP) — Responding to an outcry from medical experts, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn on Tuesday apologized for overstating the life-saving benefits of treating COVID-19 patients with convalescent plasma.

Scientists and medical experts have been pushing back against the claims about the treatment since President Donald Trump’s announcement on Sunday that the FDA had decided to issue emergency authorization for convalescent plasma, taken from patients who have recovered from the coronavirus and rich in disease-fighting antibodies.

Trump hailed the decision as a historic breakthrough even though the treatment’s value has not been established. The announcement on the eve of Trump’s Republican National Convention raised suspicions that it was politically motivated to offset critics of the president's handling of the pandemic.

Hahn had echoed Trump in saying that 35 more people out of 100 would survive the coronavirus if they were treated with the plasma. That claim vastly overstated preliminary findings of Mayo Clinic observations.

Hahn's mea culpa comes at a critical moment for the FDA which, under intense pressure from the White House, is responsible for deciding whether upcoming vaccines are safe and effective in preventing COVID-19.

The 35% figure drew condemnation from other scientists and some former FDA officials, who called on Hahn to correct the record.

“I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma. The criticism is entirely justified. What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction,” Hahn tweeted.