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OT: COVID-19 thread #3

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#601 » by 2018C3 » Mon Sep 7, 2020 4:07 am

I have heard other stories from friends of friends, who have had it worse. But still do not know anyone who personally or even 2nd hand who has passed.

Note: I'm not on twitter or face book, so I do not have any internet friends. My exposure to all this may be more limited than others who carry larger social groups.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#602 » by transplant » Mon Sep 7, 2020 8:38 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
2018C3 wrote:I know two 65+ year olds who have both tested positive. They are a couple and one of them had very minor systems. The other one of them did not even know he was ever sick.

I do not know many other's personely who have had it, and definitely do not know anyone who has died from it.

I'm sure others experiences may be different, but these ones shared are mine.


My friend's elderly folks got it. Her mom is a diabetic, so we were all very nervous. They had a rough 2 weeks but are now perfectly fine.

I am aware of several friends whose parents or loved ones have passed away though.

Last time I looked, the death rate for those 80 years+ was 41%. My brother-in-law died, but my sister lived (but is emotionally destroyed). Yup, no big deal.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#603 » by Dresden » Mon Sep 7, 2020 8:45 pm

transplant wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
2018C3 wrote:I know two 65+ year olds who have both tested positive. They are a couple and one of them had very minor systems. The other one of them did not even know he was ever sick.

I do not know many other's personely who have had it, and definitely do not know anyone who has died from it.

I'm sure others experiences may be different, but these ones shared are mine.


My friend's elderly folks got it. Her mom is a diabetic, so we were all very nervous. They had a rough 2 weeks but are now perfectly fine.

I am aware of several friends whose parents or loved ones have passed away though.

Last time I looked, the death rate for those 80 years+ was 41%. My brother-in-law died, but my sister lived (but is emotionally destroyed). Yup, no big deal.


Very sorry to hear that. It's tough losing a partner at that age. Or any age, for that matter.

One of my employees tested positive a few weeks ago. He ended up going into the hospital and staying for 4 days. They treated him with some kind of medication, I'm not sure what. Maybe steroids. Anyway, he's out now and feeling good. He has asthma so I was really worried about him.

A guy he worked with had had COVID back in March- tested positive twice, so pretty sure he actually did have it. But he came down with a 103 fever and headache last week. We're waiting on his test results, but there's only been 2 confirmed cases of anyone coming down with it twice. Luckily, he's feeling completely well again, after 3 days of fever, so whatever he had, seems to be over.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#604 » by transplant » Mon Sep 7, 2020 8:57 pm

Dresden wrote:
transplant wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
My friend's elderly folks got it. Her mom is a diabetic, so we were all very nervous. They had a rough 2 weeks but are now perfectly fine.

I am aware of several friends whose parents or loved ones have passed away though.

Last time I looked, the death rate for those 80 years+ was 41%. My brother-in-law died, but my sister lived (but is emotionally destroyed). Yup, no big deal.


Very sorry to hear that. It's tough losing a partner at that age. Or any age, for that matter.

One of my employees tested positive a few weeks ago. He ended up going into the hospital and staying for 4 days. They treated him with some kind of medication, I'm not sure what. Maybe steroids. Anyway, he's out now and feeling good. He has asthma so I was really worried about him.

A guy he worked with had had COVID back in March- tested positive twice, so pretty sure he actually did have it. But he came down with a 103 fever and headache last week. We're waiting on his test results, but there's only been 2 confirmed cases of anyone coming down with it twice. Luckily, he's feeling completely well again, after 3 days of fever, so whatever he had, seems to be over.

Fact is that, even now, the medical community doesn't know a lot more about this virus than they know. It doesn't appear that the antibody protections is long-lasting. Further, there can be lingering effects. White Sox star, Yoan Moncada, tested positive in July and confesses that he's still not the same. But, of course, it's no big deal.
Until the actual truth is more important to you than what you believe, you will never recognize the truth.

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#605 » by musiqsoulchild » Tue Sep 8, 2020 2:10 am

transplant wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
2018C3 wrote:I know two 65+ year olds who have both tested positive. They are a couple and one of them had very minor systems. The other one of them did not even know he was ever sick.

I do not know many other's personely who have had it, and definitely do not know anyone who has died from it.

I'm sure others experiences may be different, but these ones shared are mine.


My friend's elderly folks got it. Her mom is a diabetic, so we were all very nervous. They had a rough 2 weeks but are now perfectly fine.

I am aware of several friends whose parents or loved ones have passed away though.

Last time I looked, the death rate for those 80 years+ was 41%. My brother-in-law died, but my sister lived (but is emotionally destroyed). Yup, no big deal.


Very sorry to hear that Transplant.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#606 » by Dresden » Tue Sep 8, 2020 2:31 am

transplant wrote:
Dresden wrote:
transplant wrote:Last time I looked, the death rate for those 80 years+ was 41%. My brother-in-law died, but my sister lived (but is emotionally destroyed). Yup, no big deal.


Very sorry to hear that. It's tough losing a partner at that age. Or any age, for that matter.

One of my employees tested positive a few weeks ago. He ended up going into the hospital and staying for 4 days. They treated him with some kind of medication, I'm not sure what. Maybe steroids. Anyway, he's out now and feeling good. He has asthma so I was really worried about him.

A guy he worked with had had COVID back in March- tested positive twice, so pretty sure he actually did have it. But he came down with a 103 fever and headache last week. We're waiting on his test results, but there's only been 2 confirmed cases of anyone coming down with it twice. Luckily, he's feeling completely well again, after 3 days of fever, so whatever he had, seems to be over.

Fact is that, even now, the medical community doesn't know a lot more about this virus than they know. It doesn't appear that the antibody protections is long-lasting. Further, there can be lingering effects. White Sox star, Yoan Moncada, tested positive in July and confesses that he's still not the same. But, of course, it's no big deal.


I think one bright spot is that it seems like they are getting better at treating people who do go into the hospital. They've learned a few things about what works and what doesn't. Like they don't put people on respirators so quickly now, and they have a few drugs that are helping- remsidivir and steroids. So I think the mortality rates are going down in general. But we're still a long way from having a "cure".
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#607 » by dice » Tue Sep 8, 2020 5:01 am

Dresden wrote:
transplant wrote:
Dresden wrote:
Very sorry to hear that. It's tough losing a partner at that age. Or any age, for that matter.

One of my employees tested positive a few weeks ago. He ended up going into the hospital and staying for 4 days. They treated him with some kind of medication, I'm not sure what. Maybe steroids. Anyway, he's out now and feeling good. He has asthma so I was really worried about him.

A guy he worked with had had COVID back in March- tested positive twice, so pretty sure he actually did have it. But he came down with a 103 fever and headache last week. We're waiting on his test results, but there's only been 2 confirmed cases of anyone coming down with it twice. Luckily, he's feeling completely well again, after 3 days of fever, so whatever he had, seems to be over.

Fact is that, even now, the medical community doesn't know a lot more about this virus than they know. It doesn't appear that the antibody protections is long-lasting. Further, there can be lingering effects. White Sox star, Yoan Moncada, tested positive in July and confesses that he's still not the same. But, of course, it's no big deal.


I think one bright spot is that it seems like they are getting better at treating people who do go into the hospital. They've learned a few things about what works and what doesn't. Like they don't put people on respirators so quickly now, and they have a few drugs that are helping- remsidivir and steroids. So I think the mortality rates are going down in general. But we're still a long way from having a "cure".

hmmm...the president said today that we could have a vaccine before a "very special day" (election day). surely he wouldn't be misleading us?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#608 » by Dresden » Tue Sep 8, 2020 8:36 pm

Sturgis motorcycle rally was a ‘superspreader event’

Alexander Nazaryan
Yahoo News


In early August, more than 460,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, S.D., for a 10-day celebration where few wore facial coverings or practiced social distancing. A month later, researchers have found that thousands have been sickened across the nation, leading them to brand the Sturgis rally a “superspreader” event.
...
They estimate that dealing with the fallout from the rally will involve more than $12 billion in health care costs.The researchers found that the rally, which hosted 462,182 people between Aug. 7 and 16, “generated substantial public health costs,” totaling $12.2 billion. (That calculation is based on figures on health care costs associated with the coronavirus from another IZA study.) The authors note that the cost was “enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend.”
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#609 » by Dresden » Tue Sep 8, 2020 10:05 pm

I would not be surprised if they find the GOP convention was also a super spreader event. It has many of the same characteristics- people not wearing masks, it went on for 4 days, some of it was inside, people were in close contact, and it drew people from all across the country.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#610 » by coldfish » Tue Sep 8, 2020 10:43 pm

transplant wrote:The death rate of Covid has dropped to 3% from 6% back in May. The real death rate might be as low as 1% (which many epidemiologists predicted back in April). It's still pretty deadly and we're only beginning to learn about the long-term effects on the survivors. If you don't treat this thing seriously, you're being irresponsible.


The infection fatality rate varies wildly across the globe based on the age and health of the local population combined with the status of the local health care system.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3

Median corrected IFR was 0.10% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rate less than the global average (<73 deaths per million as of July 12, 2020), 0.27% in locations with 73-500 COVID-19 deaths per million, and 0.90% in locations exceeding 500 COVID-19 deaths per million.


1% is really on the high side. That 0.27% is generally consistent with a functional / non overwhelmed first world medical system.

I really need to couch this post. I'm pretty sure I have had it and it was awful to the point I thought I might die. I know of three people second hand who did die. For those that don't die, a pretty sizable number have long term serious negative affects.

Some people will cite the 0.1% flu death rate and say "its just the flu". It isn't. That 0.1% isn't calculated the same way. 60 million people had H1N1 in the US and 12000 died from it leaving a 0.02% death rate. On its lowest real estimates, covid is many times as deadly as the flu.

I bring this up because covid occupies a goldilocks zone of evil on multiple levels. It leaves many virtually untouched while killing and maiming others. It spreads quick, is airborne and people become infectious before they show symptoms. We want people to take it very seriously but at the same time, this is having a horrific mental health effect on people who shouldn't be quite that worried. Balancing those two factors is extraordinarily hard.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#611 » by Dresden » Tue Sep 8, 2020 11:58 pm

coldfish wrote:
transplant wrote:The death rate of Covid has dropped to 3% from 6% back in May. The real death rate might be as low as 1% (which many epidemiologists predicted back in April). It's still pretty deadly and we're only beginning to learn about the long-term effects on the survivors. If you don't treat this thing seriously, you're being irresponsible.


The infection fatality rate varies wildly across the globe based on the age and health of the local population combined with the status of the local health care system.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3

Median corrected IFR was 0.10% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rate less than the global average (<73 deaths per million as of July 12, 2020), 0.27% in locations with 73-500 COVID-19 deaths per million, and 0.90% in locations exceeding 500 COVID-19 deaths per million.


1% is really on the high side. That 0.27% is generally consistent with a functional / non overwhelmed first world medical system.

I really need to couch this post. I'm pretty sure I have had it and it was awful to the point I thought I might die. I know of three people second hand who did die. For those that don't die, a pretty sizable number have long term serious negative affects.

Some people will cite the 0.1% flu death rate and say "its just the flu". It isn't. That 0.1% isn't calculated the same way. 60 million people had H1N1 in the US and 12000 died from it leaving a 0.02% death rate. On its lowest real estimates, covid is many times as deadly as the flu.

I bring this up because covid occupies a goldilocks zone of evil on multiple levels. It leaves many virtually untouched while killing and maiming others. It spreads quick, is airborne and people become infectious before they show symptoms. We want people to take it very seriously but at the same time, this is having a horrific mental health effect on people who shouldn't be quite that worried. Balancing those two factors is extraordinarily hard.


Good post. I think it's true that it is a balancing act between being so scared you don't want to leave your house, or having a severe shutdown of activities, and having a devil may care attitude like "if I die, I die". And finding that balance is made more difficult by all the unknowns about the virus, and the ever changing advice given about it by doctors and authorities.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#612 » by Dresden » Tue Sep 8, 2020 11:58 pm

By the way, when did you have it?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#613 » by coldfish » Wed Sep 9, 2020 1:16 am

Dresden wrote:By the way, when did you have it?


March. Didn't get a test back then because my state restricted them to at risk people only so I have no confirmation.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#614 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 3:22 am

Dresden wrote:I would not be surprised if they find the GOP convention was also a super spreader event. It has many of the same characteristics- people not wearing masks, it went on for 4 days, some of it was inside, people were in close contact, and it drew people from all across the country.

yeah, but there were only 1500 people at the largest gathering

meanwhile, tonight he held a rally in n. carolina w/ an estimated several thousand people w/ 10% wearing masks. outdoors, fortunately. so at least there's some uptick in basic responsibility since the tulsa event
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#615 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 4:25 am

three entities are in phase III (final phase) of vaccine development, during which thousands of people are given the vaccine and efficacy/safety are tested:

july 27: pfizer/bioNtech began enrollment, have enrolled 25K of planned 30K, and expect data as early as mid-october
july 27: moderna therapeutics began enrollment - as of saturday they were at 71% enrollment - set record for speed of identification for a vaccine candidate (42 days after sequencing released by chinese researchers on jan 10)
august 31: british company astrazeneca and U of oxford researchers began enrollment, but halted it today following a suspected adverse reaction

13 other entities are at earlier stages of development

phase III usually takes a minimum of a year before submission for FDA approval
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#616 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 4:56 am

test positive rate:

0.3 VT
1 ME/CT/RI/NY/NJ/DC/AK
2 MA/NH/NM
3 MI/WA
4 CO/CA/HA/IL
4.5 OH

5 OR/WV/DE/NC/MT
6 LA/MD
7 PA/AZ/TN/VA
8 TX/MN
9 IN/WY/UT/GA/OK

10 KY
11 WI/SC/AK/NV/NE
13 FL
14 MO
15 ID/IA
17 MS
18 KS/AL
19 SD
20 ND

under 5% advised for reopening businesses/schools
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#617 » by Dresden » Wed Sep 9, 2020 2:51 pm

dice wrote:
Dresden wrote:I would not be surprised if they find the GOP convention was also a super spreader event. It has many of the same characteristics- people not wearing masks, it went on for 4 days, some of it was inside, people were in close contact, and it drew people from all across the country.

yeah, but there were only 1500 people at the largest gathering

meanwhile, tonight he held a rally in n. carolina w/ an estimated several thousand people w/ 10% wearing masks. outdoors, fortunately. so at least there's some uptick in basic responsibility since the tulsa event


1,500 is plenty big to become a super spreader. And you know that there were thousands in that locale during the 4 days of the convention, mingling, and exchanging germs.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#618 » by molepharmer » Wed Sep 9, 2020 2:57 pm

A good read on what mutations with Sars-CoV-2 may mean. It's a bit long (15 min) and scientific but the concepts are easy to understand.
The coronavirus is mutating - does it matter?
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=af64422080-briefing-dy-20200908&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-af64422080-45255538
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#619 » by musiqsoulchild » Wed Sep 9, 2020 5:15 pm

Bob Woodward's book is going to annihilate Trump's poor response.

On Feb 7th, Trump says on AUDIO:

"This is a very serious situation. Mortality is going to be 5 percent versus 1 percent"

On Feb 7th.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#620 » by musiqsoulchild » Wed Sep 9, 2020 5:16 pm

Dr Fauci on Trump:

" He just wants to get re-elected. Not interested in solving the crisis. His attention level in COVID meetings is a negative number".

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