OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[dice]

the wealth tax makes no sense to me. why would we penalize someone who buys a 2nd car and not someone who eats out for the same amount? not to mention the ridiculous invasiveness of having an auditor comb through everyone's homes to value their possessions on an annual basis

I think you would only tax assets that appreciate in value in this case. Investment portfolio, real estate, equity stakes. You wouldn't want to tax depreciating assets that people purchase because those things aren't hoarding wealth.

but the appreciating assets are counted as additional income eventually

that's probably wise. the issue is that few people have that aptitude

If everyone did have the aptitude, and we could churn out 50 million computer programmers then the pay for computer programmers would just fall to minimum wage anyway.

exactly. which is why i'm all for a UBI connected to GDP. just let the market do its thing, whatever that is, which maximizes GDP. there will still be huge wealth inequality, but there won't be crushing poverty

[dice]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Social contact like his relationship with the SS guys driving the hermetically sealed truck that he just drove around in so he could feel good seeing some hicks clap at him? Imagine being one of those guys in the car with him.

was he just driving around for no reason and then back to the hospital? because he really doesn't have much choice in terms of mode of transportation unless he's in a "normal" bulletproof vehicle surrounded by a motorcade, in which case MAYBE they could make the vehicle he's in less airtight

[dougthonus]

but the appreciating assets are counted as additional income eventually

The difference is if you put 1% tax on them per year vs just taxing at the time they are converted into income stops wealth from hoarding so much and theoretically limits tax loop holes.

exactly. which is why i'm all for a UBI connected to GDP. just let the market do its thing, whatever that is, which maximizes GDP. there will still be huge wealth inequality, but there won't be crushing poverty

I think eventually, we'll have to get there, but will probably be awhile. Economic supply/demand theory would also state that UBI would simply raise the prices of everything that those in poverty are purchasing (such as rents) because they could afford more.

[dice]

but the appreciating assets are counted as additional income eventually

The difference is if you put 1% tax on them per year vs just taxing at the time they are converted into income stops wealth from hoarding so much and theoretically limits tax loop holes.

aren't most of those assets taxed annually as income, though? even property taxes are regularly being reassessed. and for those assets that aren't being taxed annually they should be

exactly. which is why i'm all for a UBI connected to GDP. just let the market do its thing, whatever that is, which maximizes GDP. there will still be huge wealth inequality, but there won't be crushing poverty

I think eventually, we'll have to get there, but will probably be awhile.

won't happen in our lifetimes. after much suffering

Economic supply/demand theory would also state that UBI would simply raise the prices of everything that those in poverty are purchasing (such as rents) because they could afford more.

sure. a new market equilibrium would be found. nothing that can be done about that unless the gov gets more involved in housing

[Dieselbound&Down]

but the appreciating assets are counted as additional income eventually

The difference is if you put 1% tax on them per year vs just taxing at the time they are converted into income stops wealth from hoarding so much and theoretically limits tax loop holes.

exactly. which is why i'm all for a UBI connected to GDP. just let the market do its thing, whatever that is, which maximizes GDP. there will still be huge wealth inequality, but there won't be crushing poverty

I think eventually, we'll have to get there, but will probably be awhile. Economic supply/demand theory would also state that UBI would simply raise the prices of everything that those in poverty are purchasing (such as rents) because they could afford more.

UBI is not something that is going to be "evolved", it will be the product of a massive political dislocation. It's just the way these things happen imo.

I read a book a while back, don't remember the name, but it was academic with the thesis that wealth inequality had normal fluctuations and cycles, that the current situation in the US is not extraordinary historically, that paradigm shifting responses to wealth inequality and that shrinking of the inequality generally only happened, in any meaningful way, were catastrophic societal events of war involving mass mobilization, political revolution, a collapsed state, or plagues.

[dougthonus]

UBI is not something that is going to be "evolved", it will be the product of a massive political dislocation. It's just the way these things happen imo.

I read a book a while back, don't remember the name, but it was academic with the thesis that wealth inequality had normal fluctuations and cycles, that the current situation in the US is not extraordinary historically, that paradigm shifting responses to wealth inequality and that shrinking of the inequality generally only happened, in any meaningful way, were catastrophic societal events of war involving mass mobilization, political revolution, a collapsed state, or plagues.

With our level of technology, such things would be interesting to contemplate. Those types of events would have really different types of responses than in the past IMO.

[Dieselbound&Down]

Agreed the responses would be vastly different. It seems much less likely that a mass mobilization war would happen than it did 100 years ago, there are global systems in place to fight pandemics, etc. The question is whether the threat of these things, even if handled and resolved differently, would be enough to mobilize the public to support something UBI.

The question of UBI goes into the broader social contract. I don't think human nature has evolved much/enough and, in the end, you need consensus and buy-in to make these changes. Too many interests, and too much money behind these interests, to make any massive changes in how any society addresses poverty and the how broad they want to define "basic rights" that all people are entitled to or naturally should have. Just look at the current fight in the US over universal health care, guaranteed coverage for pre existing conditions and the prospect of a single payer system.

[Dresden]

Kayleigh McNaney tests positive for Covid. Chris Christie went to hospital with symptoms. He carries a double risk factor- being very overweight, and being asthmatic.

[TallDude]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA. Still i don`t want him to die. Just lose his job.

[Ice Man]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA.

You mean, with statements like today's claim that the seasonal flu is more dangerous than COVID-19?

Confirmed flu deaths per year in the U.S. - 10,000
Estimated flu deaths per year in the U.S. - 40,000
Confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. - 215,000

That is with many fewer COVID-19 cases than annual flu cases, meaning that not only has COVID-19 killed many more people than one year's seasonal flu, but its fatality rate is far higher.

This subject isn't up for debate, the numbers are widely available and not disputed. It's like arguing that Sato in a typical year outscores James Harden.

[Wingy]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA.

You mean, with statements like today's claim that the seasonal flu is more dangerous than COVID-19?

Confirmed flu deaths per year in the U.S. - 10,000
Estimated flu deaths per year in the U.S. - 40,000
Confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. - 215,000

That is with many fewer COVID-19 cases than annual flu cases, meaning that not only has COVID-19 killed many more people than one year's seasonal flu, but its fatality rate is far higher.

This subject isn't up for debate, the numbers are widely available and not disputed. It's like arguing that Sato in a typical year outscores James Harden.

C'mon though. All those Harden flops lead to reporting fake points. They're actually quite similar!

[Ice Man]

All those Harden flops lead to reporting fake points. They're actually quite similar!

I did forget about the flopping. And how could I, after watching all those games with Marcus Smart?

[Dresden]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA. Still i don`t want him to die. Just lose his job.

It seems like people might finally be waking up to that fact- 3 new polls out today had him down by 10,10 and 16 points. PA, MI, WI and MN are all showing Biden ahead by anywhere from 4 to 8 points. 2 of 3 new polls show him leading inFLA- the other had them tied. He's narrowly ahead in NC, and up by 6 points in AZ. OH is a tie, Texas in only +2 for Trump. So not much good news out there for the incumbent. Most races tighten as Election Day nears, this one, thanks to recent developments, is widening in Biden's favor.

[Dresden]

Pence's team is objecting to having plexiglass barriers between the candidates in the upcoming VP debate: “If Senator Harris wants to use a fortress around herself, have at it,” Katie Miller, a spokeswoman for the vice president, said in a statement.

It's also been announced that any spectators who refuse to wear masks (or take them off during the debate, like the Trump family did) will be escorted out of the hall.

Again, the Pence/Trump team demonstrate they have no consideration of the welfare of other people.

[Dresden]

Also, the Pentagon is getting hit with Covid:

"Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, along with several of the Pentagon’s most senior uniformed leaders, are quarantining after being exposed to the coronavirus, a Defense Department official said on Tuesday.

The official said almost the entirety of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including Gen. James C. McConville, the Army chief of staff, are quarantining after Adm. Charles Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, tested positive for coronavirus.

“We are aware that Vice Commandant Ray has tested positive for Covid-19 and that he was at the Pentagon last week for meetings with other senior military leaders,” Jonathan Hoffman, the Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement released by his office."

[dougthonus]

Pence's team is objecting to having plexiglass barriers between the candidates in the upcoming VP debate: “If Senator Harris wants to use a fortress around herself, have at it,” Katie Miller, a spokeswoman for the vice president, said in a statement.

It's also been announced that any spectators who refuse to wear masks (or take them off during the debate, like the Trump family did) will be escorted out of the hall.

Again, the Pence/Trump team demonstrate they have no consideration of the welfare of other people.

He has no other way to play it accept to continue to be defiant and hope it doesn't bite him. He absolutely can't back down on his statements or he loses for sure. He just has to double down on his long standing tactic. There's no room for him to hedge here, this isn't finance where he can take the loss and move on. He has to prove that his ideas were strong leadership all along, covid isn't a big deal, and he's managed it great.

[dice]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA. Still i don`t want him to die. Just lose his job.

It seems like people might finally be waking up to that fact- 3 new polls out today had him down by 10,10 and 16 points. PA, MI, WI and MN are all showing Biden ahead by anywhere from 4 to 8 points. 2 of 3 new polls show him leading inFLA- the other had them tied. He's narrowly ahead in NC, and up by 6 points in AZ. OH is a tie, Texas in only +2 for Trump. So not much good news out there for the incumbent. Most races tighten as Election Day nears, this one, thanks to recent developments, is widening in Biden's favor.

and yet bettors are still hedging:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

i think that's partly over-reaction to the upset in 2016 (hillary was up only 4 points heading into election day, biden is currently up 9 points). but it's also fear that there will be major issues with mail-in ballots, which is a legitimate concern. the city of philadelphia is asking people to vote in person during a pandemic because they do not have a lot of money allocated to the process and fear a lot of mail-in ballots being rejected

look at how stable biden's lead has been over the past 3 months:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

as opposed to 4 years ago:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

[Dresden]

Trump must be most stupid president in short history with USA. Still i don`t want him to die. Just lose his job.

It seems like people might finally be waking up to that fact- 3 new polls out today had him down by 10,10 and 16 points. PA, MI, WI and MN are all showing Biden ahead by anywhere from 4 to 8 points. 2 of 3 new polls show him leading inFLA- the other had them tied. He's narrowly ahead in NC, and up by 6 points in AZ. OH is a tie, Texas in only +2 for Trump. So not much good news out there for the incumbent. Most races tighten as Election Day nears, this one, thanks to recent developments, is widening in Biden's favor.

and yet bettors are still hedging:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

i think that's partly over-reaction to the upset in 2016 (hillary was up only 4 points heading into election day, biden is currently up 9 points). but it's also fear that there will be major issues with mail-in ballots, which is a legitimate concern. the city of philadelphia is asking people to vote in person during a pandemic because they do not have a lot of money allocated to the process and fear a lot of mail-in ballots being rejected

look at how stable biden's lead has been over the past 3 months:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

as opposed to 4 years ago:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

I think 538 had the odds at 80% right now for a Biden win. Also, the stock market now seems to be rallying on news favorable to Biden. I also think turnout is going to be enormous. There has been so much messaging going on to urge people to vote. Starbucks just announced they will provide free Lyft service to polling places for all of it's 200K employees.

IMO, that would be the best thing that could happen- a tremendous amount of people turn out to vote, paving the way for a blue wave. It would send a message that no amount of gerrymandering or electoral college BS or voter suppression tactics can disguise the fact that the US is a blue nation, and becoming more so every day.

[dice]

white house will not cooperate w/ contract tracing of rose garden "super spreader" event:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/05/why-wont-the-white-house-let-the-cdc-contact-trace-its-rose-garden-event/

[dice]

It seems like people might finally be waking up to that fact- 3 new polls out today had him down by 10,10 and 16 points. PA, MI, WI and MN are all showing Biden ahead by anywhere from 4 to 8 points. 2 of 3 new polls show him leading inFLA- the other had them tied. He's narrowly ahead in NC, and up by 6 points in AZ. OH is a tie, Texas in only +2 for Trump. So not much good news out there for the incumbent. Most races tighten as Election Day nears, this one, thanks to recent developments, is widening in Biden's favor.

and yet bettors are still hedging:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

i think that's partly over-reaction to the upset in 2016 (hillary was up only 4 points heading into election day, biden is currently up 9 points). but it's also fear that there will be major issues with mail-in ballots, which is a legitimate concern. the city of philadelphia is asking people to vote in person during a pandemic because they do not have a lot of money allocated to the process and fear a lot of mail-in ballots being rejected

look at how stable biden's lead has been over the past 3 months:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

as opposed to 4 years ago:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

I think 538 had the odds at 80% right now for a Biden win.[/url]

seems pretty realistic. but again, they're not factoring in shenanigans

Also, the stock market now seems to be rallying on news favorable to Biden.

i don't think that's the case. when trump got sick, the market dropped. when he left the hospital, it went up. normal stuff with regard to the health of a president. the rest is standard economic reaction to the circumstances as far as i can tell. negotiations stall on stimulus, market goes down today. which probably makes the market neutral to election results at this point - there will likely be a large stimulus passed if biden wins and the dems take the senate, which is good for the markets, but it would also signal a less business-friendly environment going forward

I also think turnout is going to be enormous. There has been so much messaging going on to urge people to vote. Starbucks just announced they will provide free Lyft service to polling places for all of it's 200K employees.

that's encouraging. it's also notable that the biden campaign has been doing huge celebrity social media targeted outreach that seems to be paying off. when kylie jenner urges her countless instagram followers to vote, that's a good thing...even though it's pretty pathetic that kylie jenner is a factor in anything at all of import

IMO, that would be the best thing that could happen- a tremendous amount of people turn out to vote, paving the way for a blue wave. It would send a message that no amount of gerrymandering or electoral college BS or voter suppression tactics can disguise the fact that the US is a blue nation, and becoming more so every day.

[/quote]
sadly, demographics are also distorting the electoral college and senate representation more and more every day as well...in the other direction