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OT: COVID-19 thread #3

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#861 » by Dresden » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:10 pm

molepharmer wrote:A little science about other therapeutic options which may be used by themselves or in conjunction with a vaccine.....
from Matt Kaeberlein, a gerontologist at the University of Washington in Seattle....“If I had the power to go back to the beginning of this whole COVID pandemic and try one thing, I’d pick mTOR inhibitors — rapamycin specifically,” he says. According to his back-of-the-envelope calculations, if rapamycin works in the same way in people as it does in mice, it could reduce COVID-19 mortality by 90%.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02856-7


Interesting article. I wonder how soon something like this will be tried with Covid patients....
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#862 » by Dresden » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:19 pm

The pandemic continues to take it's toll on the economy:

"U.S. states saw another 898,000 Americans file first-time unemployment insurance claims last week, representing an unexpected rise in new claims with the pandemic still under way and another round of fiscal stimulus still out of reach."

This will be the last jobs report before the election. I'm sure Trump was hoping for better numbers so he could say the economy was rebounding.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#863 » by jmajew » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:24 pm

Dresden wrote:The pandemic continues to take it's toll on the economy:

"U.S. states saw another 898,000 Americans file first-time unemployment insurance claims last week, representing an unexpected rise in new claims with the pandemic still under way and another round of fiscal stimulus still out of reach."

This will be the last jobs report before the election. I'm sure Trump was hoping for better numbers so he could say the economy was rebounding.


Actually the last jobs report before the election was the one we got at the beginning of this month. The one for October will not be coming until November 6th. It is always the first Friday of the following month.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#864 » by moorhosj » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm

Dresden wrote:I'm sure Trump was hoping for better numbers so he could say the economy was rebounding.


The 3rd quarter GDP estimate will be out on October 29 and it's likely to show 30-35% GDP growth. This will absolutely be hammered on for the last 5 days of the election. It will be record growth, but not make up for the losses in Q1 and Q2.

JPMorgan recently estimated that annualized real GDP growth will be 33% for the third quarter, which would still leave real GDP 3.6% below the peak it achieved at the end of 2019.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-will-brag-how-q3-gdp-may-factor-into-the-last-5-days-of-the-campaign/ar-BB1a1WJU

Atlanta Fed GDP Estimate is 35.2%: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=fa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a93
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#865 » by Ccwatercraft » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:52 pm

Dresden wrote:To me, it's not about being mentally ready or not, it's about the science of how covid is spread.



https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/travel/video/experiment-shows-risks-air-travel-masked-73626781
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#866 » by Dresden » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:29 am

Ccwatercraft wrote:
Dresden wrote:To me, it's not about being mentally ready or not, it's about the science of how covid is spread.



https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/travel/video/experiment-shows-risks-air-travel-masked-73626781


Thanks for the link. I'm going to send that to my parent's, who I'm hoping to visit sometime this winter.

The caveat is, the study assumed everyone wearing a mask. And as you said, when food and beverages come out, off come all the masks. So that's a whole other reality than the one being studied in the report.

And there is the issue of the crowding in the airport, during boarding, during luggage pick up. Probably not a big deal if everyone is masked up, but if they aren't?

What a difference there would have been if we had had a president who preached wearing masks as soon as they knew it was important.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#867 » by Dez » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:36 am

2 new cases in Victoria and 9 new Australia wide, 3 days with single figure increases.

SO CLOSE TO POTENTIAL FREEDOM!
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#868 » by molepharmer » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:31 pm

Dresden wrote:
molepharmer wrote:A little science about other therapeutic options which may be used by themselves or in conjunction with a vaccine.....
from Matt Kaeberlein, a gerontologist at the University of Washington in Seattle....“If I had the power to go back to the beginning of this whole COVID pandemic and try one thing, I’d pick mTOR inhibitors — rapamycin specifically,” he says. According to his back-of-the-envelope calculations, if rapamycin works in the same way in people as it does in mice, it could reduce COVID-19 mortality by 90%.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02856-7


Interesting article. I wonder how soon something like this will be tried with Covid patients....

A quick google search shows there are at least a couple of very small (less than 100 enrollees) trials currently ongoing with rapamycin (i.e. Sirolimus). e.g. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04461340.

As long as the science is valid, which it appears to be, I'd expect larger trials to follow. Re-purposing current drugs saves a lot of time because they've already been approved for use in humans and so you have a very good understanding of their pharmacology (e.g. doseage, toxicity). Problem of course then becomes figuring out when to give the drug, how much, how often, to what population, etc. which takes time.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#869 » by Dresden » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:49 pm

Trump held an indoor rally for seniors in Ft. Myers today. Masks not required. He promised them the same treatment he had (regeneron) would be available soon to everyone, and for free. Both lies. The CEO of the company that makes regeneron has said supplies are limited, and they will have to ration who gets it, IF it is approved by the FDA. And it will NOT be free, of course. It's a sad day in America when the president can stand in front of the American people and just tell lies straight to their faces, without consequence.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#870 » by dice » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:32 pm

dougthonus wrote:
SalmonsSuperfan wrote:this is a really scary idea. you're basically saying that 110million americans, disproportionately non-white, should be immediately plunged into abject poverty. it's probably worth considering why people either do not want to or cannot participate in the electoral process before destroying society.


Not sure how any of this follows. I noted that you would need to simplify voting into a trivial electronic process with the implication that everyone can vote instantly, simply, with no barriers whatsoever in front of them (we should do that anyway).

Though I agree that you could not implement this with the current voting process, you need to make it trivially easy to vote. Like you can walk into work, use MFA at work, and vote electronically in 10 seconds, and any employer has to provide this functionality to employ people.

i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#871 » by dougthonus » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:23 pm

dice wrote:i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that


In an ideal situation, you would want both high voter turnout and high voter intelligence about what/who they are voting for.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#872 » by SalmonsSuperfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:15 pm

dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
SalmonsSuperfan wrote:this is a really scary idea. you're basically saying that 110million americans, disproportionately non-white, should be immediately plunged into abject poverty. it's probably worth considering why people either do not want to or cannot participate in the electoral process before destroying society.


Not sure how any of this follows. I noted that you would need to simplify voting into a trivial electronic process with the implication that everyone can vote instantly, simply, with no barriers whatsoever in front of them (we should do that anyway).

Though I agree that you could not implement this with the current voting process, you need to make it trivially easy to vote. Like you can walk into work, use MFA at work, and vote electronically in 10 seconds, and any employer has to provide this functionality to employ people.

i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that

who do you think possesses more civic knowledge, a millionaire business owner who went to harvard or an immigrant single mother who works two jobs?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#873 » by Dresden » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:49 pm

I don't think it's necessary to make voting mandatory in order get higher voter turnout. Instead, we should just make it as simple as possible for people to vote. Other countries do a much better job than we do on this, and so have much greater turnout. I know it's not THAT hard to vote now, but it could be made even easier- there are many good ideas out there on how to do this, but the GOP generally blocks any such measures, knowing that they are outnumbered, and can only hold onto power through various means of voter suppression, or vote weighting (electoral college/gerrymandering).
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#874 » by dice » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:32 am

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:
dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Not sure how any of this follows. I noted that you would need to simplify voting into a trivial electronic process with the implication that everyone can vote instantly, simply, with no barriers whatsoever in front of them (we should do that anyway).

Though I agree that you could not implement this with the current voting process, you need to make it trivially easy to vote. Like you can walk into work, use MFA at work, and vote electronically in 10 seconds, and any employer has to provide this functionality to employ people.

i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that

who do you think possesses more civic knowledge, a millionaire business owner who went to harvard or an immigrant single mother who works two jobs?

in all likelihood, the business owner. because he/she is almost certainly more educated. and probably has more time to follow politics. and is more likely to think that a particular political party/leader could benefit her/his interests. there's a reason why poor, working people vote at a very low rate - because they don't think it's worth their time and energy to care. but regardless, the only way to know for sure would be to test them. unfortunately, any test of civic knowledge tied to voting would be ripe for political manipulation and surely unfair in some way
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#875 » by dice » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:35 am

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that


In an ideal situation, you would want both high voter turnout and high voter intelligence about what/who they are voting for.

if a person has no significant political preference, their vote has little value. but certainly if everybody had high civic knowledge, there would be a lot more people with a preference and thus a lot more people voting. i don't think that it's a total coincidence that reduced civics education over generations has roughly coincided with lower turnout
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#876 » by Dresden » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:54 am

dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:i'm not sure that forcing people to vote out of obligation as opposed to civic engagement is good for democracy

OT, but it would be ideal to have votes weighted by civic knowledge, but there's really no way to implement something like that


In an ideal situation, you would want both high voter turnout and high voter intelligence about what/who they are voting for.

if a person has no significant political preference, their vote has little value. but certainly if everybody had high civic knowledge, there would be a lot more people with a preference and thus a lot more people voting. i don't think that it's a total coincidence that reduced civics education over generations has roughly coincided with lower turnout


I think another factor is declining union membership. Unions members I would bet (too lazy to look this up) vote at higher rates than non union members in the same occupations. Union membership is down to around 10% in the US. It used to be what, 30%? The collapse of big city "machines" also probably plays a role, as does the general decline in the trust of our govt. after Watergate/Nixon.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#877 » by Dresden » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:56 am

This is really sad:

Last Saturday afternoon, Florida coach Dan Mullen was pushing for his school to allow some 90,000 fans to jam Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for this week’s matchup with LSU.

By Wednesday, the game was postponed due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among Florida players and coaches.

By Saturday, Mullen announced he had COVID-19 himself.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#878 » by dice » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:04 am

Dresden wrote:
dice wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
In an ideal situation, you would want both high voter turnout and high voter intelligence about what/who they are voting for.

if a person has no significant political preference, their vote has little value. but certainly if everybody had high civic knowledge, there would be a lot more people with a preference and thus a lot more people voting. i don't think that it's a total coincidence that reduced civics education over generations has roughly coincided with lower turnout


I think another factor is declining union membership. Unions members I would bet (too lazy to look this up) vote at higher rates than non union members in the same occupations.

sounds right

Union membership is down to around 10% in the US. It used to be what, 30%?

right on

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The collapse of big city "machines" also probably plays a role, as does the general decline in the trust of our govt. after Watergate/Nixon.

interesting points, particularly about nixon, whose "southern strategy" also kicked off the cultural divide and the increasingly cynical political marketing that went with it (which trump has blatantly and shamelessly exploited to the hilt). not sure what impact that has had on voting rates, though
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#879 » by dice » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:10 am

Dresden wrote:This is really sad:

Last Saturday afternoon, Florida coach Dan Mullen was pushing for his school to allow some 90,000 fans to jam Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for this week’s matchup with LSU.

By Wednesday, the game was postponed due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among Florida players and coaches.

By Saturday, Mullen announced he had COVID-19 himself.

florida should have to forfeit that game. both in the interest of fairness and to signal that respect for the virus is vastly more important than sports. but of course the financial considerations win out
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #3 

Post#880 » by PlayerUp » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:12 am

Dresden wrote:I don't think it's necessary to make voting mandatory in order get higher voter turnout. Instead, we should just make it as simple as possible for people to vote. Other countries do a much better job than we do on this, and so have much greater turnout. I know it's not THAT hard to vote now, but it could be made even easier- there are many good ideas out there on how to do this, but the GOP generally blocks any such measures, knowing that they are outnumbered, and can only hold onto power through various means of voter suppression, or vote weighting (electoral college/gerrymandering).


I just requested my ballot online just now since I confirmed I am not going to able to come in and vote on Nov 3. It took 90 seconds to complete everything.

In addition to the absentee ballot I requested, there is a mail in online PDF I also downloaded. I was generally surprised how easy it was to complete the process. Also I will receive I assume voter information or ballots on future elections. Maybe certain states it maybe more difficult but my swing state it was so simple.

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I don't think it needs to be easier but rather people just need to be educated step by step on how to receive an absentee ballot. Schools for example should be educating people on things like managing your finances and how to vote.

On the other hand, getting various things such as money the states owes you back is extremely difficult and time consuming to actually get done.

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