OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[Dresden]

For what it's worth:

San Francisco has become the poster child for how to control coronavirus cases and deaths amid the pandemic, with its residents wearing masks, businesses and schools reopening slowly and scientists and politicians working together to create public health orders.

The result of the county and city's vigilant behavior has been the lowest death rate of any major city in the country and remarkably low cases rates considering S.F. is a densely populated city.

What if all Americans followed the Northern California city's approach to the pandemic?

A lot of deaths would have been avoided, UCSF coronavirus expert Dr. Bob Wachter told the LA Times for a story on S.F.'s COVID-19 success.

"There would be 50,000 dead from the pandemic instead of more than 220,000," Wachter told the Times.

San Francisco County (pop. 880,000) has recorded 12,152 cases and 140 deaths since the start of the pandemic, with roughly 1,373 cases and 16 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to Johns Hopkins University. By comparison, Los Angeles County (pop. 10 million) has recorded 299,760 cases and 6,993 deaths, with 2,966 cases and 69 deaths per 100,0000; New York County (Manhattan, pop. 1.6 million) falls in at 33,128 total cases and a death toll of 2,545, with 2,034 cases and 156 deaths per 100,000.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-coronavirus-lowest-death-rate-US-15676503.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight

[Dresden]

I think some of our success has to do with geography- NYC had the misfortune of being the hub to which a lot of people returned from Europe with the virus to, and from there it hit the eastern seaboard particularly hard.

[TheFinishSniper]

I am more suprised with lack of news and announcements about vaccine. 3rd stage of clinic testing should have ended week or two ago by my calculations for some earliest 3rd phase vaccine experiments. I guess they dont want to rush and want to see long term side effects and how much immunity last.

But I am overall suprised negatively that there are no news at all. We are just few days away from November. And we basically not only have no news, but even if we had positive news about cure at this point most of people wouldnt be getting it till it's mass produced which means at least month or two extra on schedule.

[Dresden]

Russia put in place a national mask mandate today. Their case load pales in comparison to ours though:

"Russia recorded 16,550 new cases on Tuesday, the fifth day in a row with more than 16,000 new cases. The government also reported 320 coronavirus deaths, a single-day record. Russia has recorded more than 1.5 million cases of the virus, with more than 114,00 of those coming in the past seven days, and a total of 26,000 deaths."

[dougthonus]

For what it's worth:

San Francisco has become the poster child for how to control coronavirus cases and deaths amid the pandemic, with its residents wearing masks, businesses and schools reopening slowly and scientists and politicians working together to create public health orders.

The result of the county and city's vigilant behavior has been the lowest death rate of any major city in the country and remarkably low cases rates considering S.F. is a densely populated city.

What if all Americans followed the Northern California city's approach to the pandemic?

A lot of deaths would have been avoided, UCSF coronavirus expert Dr. Bob Wachter told the LA Times for a story on S.F.'s COVID-19 success.

"There would be 50,000 dead from the pandemic instead of more than 220,000," Wachter told the Times.

San Francisco County (pop. 880,000) has recorded 12,152 cases and 140 deaths since the start of the pandemic, with roughly 1,373 cases and 16 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to Johns Hopkins University. By comparison, Los Angeles County (pop. 10 million) has recorded 299,760 cases and 6,993 deaths, with 2,966 cases and 69 deaths per 100,0000; New York County (Manhattan, pop. 1.6 million) falls in at 33,128 total cases and a death toll of 2,545, with 2,034 cases and 156 deaths per 100,000.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-coronavirus-lowest-death-rate-US-15676503.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight

"The low case rate is a result of people acting well, and acting well is everything from city health leaders doing the right thing to the people doing the right thing," Wachter, chair of UCSF's Department of Medicine, told SFGATE for a previous story on the city's low death rate. "We have very high rates of mask-wearing, probably the highest in the country. I think from the beginning people have trusted the science, trusted the guidance. You don’t hear in S.F. that COVID is a hoax. People have generally taken this very seriously and I think the leadership from the mayor and the regional health directors has been terrific."

Well yeah, if your population all takes this seriously, it makes a huge, huge difference.

In April, Wachter sent a team of UCSF doctors to New York to help during the height of the East Coast city's pandemic and his colleagues told "horror stories about what they saw in good hospitals."

"At UCSF, you’ll have one nurse taking care of you," he said. "In Queens, at the height of things, it was one nurse to seven or eight patients. That can’t be done safely. You’ll have a world-class team of intensive-care doctors taking care of you in San Francisco. In New York, the team might have included an eye specialist or dermatologist. They may be great doctors but their speciality isn’t COVID. Everyone was called to help. They were overwhelmed. We’ve never had that in S.F."

Really? In SF there is 1 nurse per sick patient available? Pretty obvious why that doesn't scale. Oh, you just have a world class team of doctors for every patient? Can't imagine why that doesn't scale. Most people can't get a world class team of doctors regardless of what is wrong with them in a normal situation let alone a pandemic.

I'd throw out there that what SF has going for it is a population that took it very seriously and a city, a government that took it seriously, and a city with lots and lots of outdoor activities and absolutely fabulous weather during the time the pandemic has happened so far.

[Dresden]

Really? In SF there is 1 nurse per sick patient available? Pretty obvious why that doesn't scale. Oh, you just have a world class team of doctors for every patient? Can't imagine why that doesn't scale. Most people can't get a world class team of doctors regardless of what is wrong with them in a normal situation let alone a pandemic.

I'd throw out there that what SF has going for it is a population that took it very seriously and a city, a government that took it seriously, and a city with lots and lots of outdoor activities and absolutely fabulous weather during the time the pandemic has happened so far.

The guy may have gotten a bit carried away, I think his point was that not having your hospitals get overwhelmed to the point where you're having eye doctors treat patients with Covid can make a big difference in outcomes.

I recall that when the mayor first issued the shelter in place order, which was one of the first in the nation, if not THE first, even a lot of well educated, savvy San Franciscans thought she was over-reacting. In hindsight, it was a very smart thing to do.

[dougthonus]

The guy may have gotten a bit carried away, I think his point was that not having your hospitals get overwhelmed to the point where you're having eye doctors treat patients with Covid can make a big difference in outcomes.

I recall that when the mayor first issued the shelter in place order, which was one of the first in the nation, if not THE first, even a lot of well educated, savvy San Franciscans thought she was over-reacting. In hindsight, it was a very smart thing to do.

Good for SF for taking it seriously and doing good things, but the article just struck me as insulting bragging rather than useful. I mean they didn't list a single meaningful thing that SF did that others can now emulate. It just came off like "haha, look how good things worked out here, you morons".

[Ice Man]

Good for SF for taking it seriously and doing good things, but the article just struck me as insulting bragging rather than useful. I mean they didn't list a single meaningful thing that SF did that others can now emulate. It just came off like "haha, look how good things worked out here, you morons".

I am originally from the Bay Area, so I can testify that the prevailing attitude there is, "If you people were as smart as us, you would be living here, rather in the godforsaken Midwest (or East Coast, or South, or wherever)." So yeah, you bet that the article comes across that way.

A good reason to root against the Warriors, although not as good as if LeBron had joined them.

[Dresden]

The guy may have gotten a bit carried away, I think his point was that not having your hospitals get overwhelmed to the point where you're having eye doctors treat patients with Covid can make a big difference in outcomes.

I recall that when the mayor first issued the shelter in place order, which was one of the first in the nation, if not THE first, even a lot of well educated, savvy San Franciscans thought she was over-reacting. In hindsight, it was a very smart thing to do.

Good for SF for taking it seriously and doing good things, but the article just struck me as insulting bragging rather than useful. I mean they didn't list a single meaningful thing that SF did that others can now emulate. It just came off like "haha, look how good things worked out here, you morons".

Yes, I think he was bragging a bit, but it also points out a sobering reality- things could have gone much differently for the whole country if cities/states had reacted just a bit sooner. The early weeks of the pandemic were critical- I've seen studies saying that a difference of just a few weeks in implementing shut-downs made a huge difference in the rate and extent of the infection.

As for what lessons if may have for us now, I think it points to the need for urgent and strong action when numbers first start to spike. This has happened just in the past 2-3 weeks in many places of the country, including many rural areas that don't have the resources to deal with large numbers of very ill people. Shutdowns, limits on gatherings, mask mandates, having enough PPE and other equipment in stock for hospitals, and above all awareness and public education measures are all things that still can be done in areas that are experiencing spikes. Unfortunately, many politicians are still reluctant to do these things because they have put their lot in with the Trump philosophy and don't want to backtrack on that now. They talk about needing to keep the economy open, to preserve people's "freedom" or "choice", etc.

[Dresden]

Good for SF for taking it seriously and doing good things, but the article just struck me as insulting bragging rather than useful. I mean they didn't list a single meaningful thing that SF did that others can now emulate. It just came off like "haha, look how good things worked out here, you morons".

I am originally from the Bay Area, so I can testify that the prevailing attitude there is, "If you people were as smart as us, you would be living here, rather in the godforsaken Midwest (or East Coast, or South, or wherever)." So yeah, you bet that the article comes across that way.

A good reason to root against the Warriors, although not as good as if LeBron had joined them.

It all depends on who you talk to. Certainly there is some of that attitude here- esp. among the young, Silicon Valley- financial crowd. But SF is very diverse, and you won't hear that sort of thing from the large working class Asian, black or Latino community here, many of whom are struggling just to survive the high cost of living, or from the many transplanted midwesterners or east coasters, who still have strong ties to their places of origin.

[dougthonus]

Yes, I think he was bragging a bit, but it also points out a sobering reality- things could have gone much differently for the whole country if cities/states had reacted just a bit sooner. The early weeks of the pandemic were critical- I've seen studies saying that a difference of just a few weeks in implementing shut-downs made a huge difference in the rate and extent of the infection.

As for what lessons if may have for us now, I think it points to the need for urgent and strong action when numbers first start to spike. This has happened just in the past 2-3 weeks in many places of the country, including many rural areas that don't have the resources to deal with large numbers of very ill people. Shutdowns, limits on gatherings, mask mandates, having enough PPE and other equipment in stock for hospitals, and above all awareness and public education measures are all things that still can be done in areas that are experiencing spikes. Unfortunately, many politicians are still reluctant to do these things because they have put their lot in with the Trump philosophy and don't want to backtrack on that now. They talk about needing to keep the economy open, to preserve people's "freedom" or "choice", etc.

It doesn't seem to be the case even in other very democratic cities though. It would be interesting to know what has really made SF unique compared to other areas. NY, Chicago, LA all are generally taking it seriously.

Also, starting earlier may have helped, but if you look at where we have gone since June, we got the cases down, but htey have spiked up again. What makes SF not spike up again?

Is it better compliance? Less things open? Stricter rules?

[dougthonus]

Good for SF for taking it seriously and doing good things, but the article just struck me as insulting bragging rather than useful. I mean they didn't list a single meaningful thing that SF did that others can now emulate. It just came off like "haha, look how good things worked out here, you morons".

I am originally from the Bay Area, so I can testify that the prevailing attitude there is, "If you people were as smart as us, you would be living here, rather in the godforsaken Midwest (or East Coast, or South, or wherever)." So yeah, you bet that the article comes across that way.

A good reason to root against the Warriors, although not as good as if LeBron had joined them.

It all depends on who you talk to. Certainly there is some of that attitude here- esp. among the young, Silicon Valley- financial crowd. But SF is very diverse, and you won't hear that sort of thing from the large working class Asian, black or Latino community here, many of whom are struggling just to survive the high cost of living, or from the many transplanted midwesterners or east coasters, who still have strong ties to their places of origin.

People generally have a certain amount of civic pride, and depending where you are from and what type of person you are that will vary. There are definitely Chicagoans that are very proud of being from Chicago, same is probably true of every major city.

[Ice Man]

Honestly, I almost think of this as an Old Testament situation, where the Lord punishes us from our sins. There were 6,000 reported COVID-10 cases in Illinois today. Driving by, what do I see? A completely enclosed tent (to stay warm) with tables pushed up next to each other, completely full for lunch, these people sitting on top of each other, no masks, recycled air. I guess that it's legal because it's an "outdoor" tent. Ludicrous. It's a COVID breeding ground.

Old people too. The average age at that restaurant for lunch is about 60, with many 70+ attending.

SMH

[Ben Wilson25]

The sad thing is that whether Trump wins or loses next week he’s already screwed us past the point of no return. The way he’s diminished the threat and the science and politicized mask wearing guarantees that 30-40% of the country will continue to ignore best practices and not wear masks no matter what happens. My guess is that if he loses they’ll only dig in harder meaning a national mask mandate would be pretty much useless; not that mandates anywhere have any effectiveness unless everyone is cooperating anyway. We’re not equipped in any way to enforce mandates. The only thing that may have saved us was the type of national unity I’ve only seen in my lifetime in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.

[DuckIII]

The sad thing is that whether Trump wins or loses next week he’s already screwed us past the point of no return. The way he’s diminished the threat and the science and politicized mask wearing guarantees that 30-40% of the country will continue to ignore best practices and not wear masks no matter what happens. My guess is that if he loses they’ll only dig in harder meaning a national mask mandate would be pretty much useless; not that mandates anywhere have any effectiveness unless everyone is cooperating anyway. We’re not equipped in any way to enforce mandates. The only thing that may have saved us was the type of national unity I’ve only seen in my lifetime in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.

Bingo.

[stl705]

I agree in that we’re past the point of no return imo. A widespread vaccine still doesn’t seem remotely close to happening. I was all in favor of shutdowns, etc., but at this point I just don’t see it worth it when you have the Indianas and Wisconsins, etc surrounding us. It’s bound to continue hitting us hard. I don’t see the end in sight even with strict shutdowns when only 1/2 the population is abiding or listening.

We’ve got Halloween coming up on a Saturday. I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but judging by the case counts the majority of people have given up.

[MrSparkle]

With the vaccine, who are we kidding? Vaccines work in the macro/long-term. It is fiction to think this is going to play out like the sequel to Outbreak starring Dustin Hoffman. The damage has been done, the damage will continue being done, and it will take years with a few surprises and twists before coronavirus is under control.

There has literally never been a human pandemic like CO-19 in the history of the planet, because anything this contagious and potentially fatal never got this wide-spread during the era of commercial flying and globalization.

Again; it is sad and fitting that this happened while all these big-**** waving populist leaders came around, who rejected science, community (SOCIALIZED) health, testing each other's military patience (China, USA, Russia) and generally eroding ally-ships (EU/Brexit, USA/EU, USA/Canada, China tariffs), and were more interested in appealing to fringe wealthy groups with no care for the rest of the planet (Bolsaro and the rest).

They are big children who will leave a big mess. Shame on the low IQ and critical thinking of all who enabled them, and continue to enable them with conspiracy theories and false information.

The work will begin when and if the Trump Admin and McConnell are dumped. I'm not optimistic about this election, cause it's hard to get a read on anything other than the general population's confusion.

Food for thought: it's been almost 20 years, and we still have troops in the Wars of Aghanistan and Iraq. Most troops have withdrawn, but those two countries are still a total mess, arguably much worse off, and they've seen 2 decades of total unrest. It was an aggressive ideological push by the neo-con administration, and we're still paying that price after selling the world on bad intel.

At first, I didn't like the term 'invisible enemy', because first off Covid is not invisible. It's called corona virus because the damn virus is resembles the image of a solar corona. Of course Trump and Pence never bothered looking under a microscope or at a micrograph, so they can continue calling it the "invisible" enemy. (Clowns)

But more importantly, I didn't want to compare a pandemic to a war. The best type of conflict between two parties is over land, resources, money (or revenge), because frankly the better the economy, the lower risk everyone will take to get into a costly war.

The worst type is an ideological war, because no end is ever in sight if one side thinks the others skin, religion or race are at fault with theirs (unless the power of "good" is overwhelming, as the Allied powers were in putting out the NAZIs).

A pandemic should be a simple "all hands on deck - let's resolve this" coalition between all the leaders of the world.

Somehow this pandemic has become an ideological war, which is completely nonsensical, and basically responsible for its great growth in the world population. And like the Afghan/Iraq wars, I'm pretty sure it's gonna be 2040 and people will still remember "WOW - what a mismanagement of a crisis - why are we still paying for something that happened in 2020?"

Rest assured, Kushner, Eric and Ivanka will have their wealth quadrupled by that point, so long they black-list Don Jr. That guy seems like the perfect type to perish a financial fortune.

Anyway, take your vitamins, keep your BMI and Fat% low, stay smart and take the vaccine when it goes through the proper channels and isn't bum-rushed into your local Walmart parking lot next Tuesday by the National Guard.

[Dresden]

Yes, I think he was bragging a bit, but it also points out a sobering reality- things could have gone much differently for the whole country if cities/states had reacted just a bit sooner. The early weeks of the pandemic were critical- I've seen studies saying that a difference of just a few weeks in implementing shut-downs made a huge difference in the rate and extent of the infection.

As for what lessons if may have for us now, I think it points to the need for urgent and strong action when numbers first start to spike. This has happened just in the past 2-3 weeks in many places of the country, including many rural areas that don't have the resources to deal with large numbers of very ill people. Shutdowns, limits on gatherings, mask mandates, having enough PPE and other equipment in stock for hospitals, and above all awareness and public education measures are all things that still can be done in areas that are experiencing spikes. Unfortunately, many politicians are still reluctant to do these things because they have put their lot in with the Trump philosophy and don't want to backtrack on that now. They talk about needing to keep the economy open, to preserve people's "freedom" or "choice", etc.

It doesn't seem to be the case even in other very democratic cities though. It would be interesting to know what has really made SF unique compared to other areas. NY, Chicago, LA all are generally taking it seriously.

Also, starting earlier may have helped, but if you look at where we have gone since June, we got the cases down, but htey have spiked up again. What makes SF not spike up again?

Is it better compliance? Less things open? Stricter rules?

Good questions- I'm sure public health officials and academics will be researching this sort of things for years to come to determine what worked and what didn't.

[Dresden]

Honestly, I almost think of this as an Old Testament situation, where the Lord punishes us from our sins. There were 6,000 reported COVID-10 cases in Illinois today. Driving by, what do I see? A completely enclosed tent (to stay warm) with tables pushed up next to each other, completely full for lunch, these people sitting on top of each other, no masks, recycled air. I guess that it's legal because it's an "outdoor" tent. Ludicrous. It's a COVID breeding ground.

Old people too. The average age at that restaurant for lunch is about 60, with many 70+ attending.

SMH

Bingo. It boggles the mind that things like that are still occurring and that public officials are allowing it.

[Dresden]

The sad thing is that whether Trump wins or loses next week he’s already screwed us past the point of no return. The way he’s diminished the threat and the science and politicized mask wearing guarantees that 30-40% of the country will continue to ignore best practices and not wear masks no matter what happens. My guess is that if he loses they’ll only dig in harder meaning a national mask mandate would be pretty much useless; not that mandates anywhere have any effectiveness unless everyone is cooperating anyway. We’re not equipped in any way to enforce mandates. The only thing that may have saved us was the type of national unity I’ve only seen in my lifetime in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.

you would think though, that at some point the incidence of Covid would start to make it clear: those areas with the least compliance in terms of mask wearing, social distancing, etc, would see the worst outbreaks. And then everyone would see the truth. That hasn't really happened yet.