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Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15

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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#41 » by dougthonus » Tue Jul 7, 2020 7:23 pm

TheStig wrote:1. Doug, I've gone over this many times here. The owner of the Grizz came out later and said that when they actually dealt him, he tried to deal with the Bulls because they could give them the most financial relief (a ungaurnateed PJ Brown deal vs Kwame) and the Bulls were only doing deals involving Noc (a bad long deal at the time). I'm not looking it up but it came right from his mouth. He had no reason to rehash that since they did better with Gasol then they would have here.


:dontknow:

It was directly contradicted by lots of reports at the time the trade talks were happening, and what you have quoted here doesn't exclude that they didn't want Deng/Gordon whom were both on cheap contracts.

2. I think the mental took a dive because he came there to lead the team and then couldn't big minutes or start. I think he would have had at least 2-3 good years here, especially being put in a big role here, which he would have with Rose going down.


I noted the possibility too, it could be that greater stability would have kept him more even keeled or possible that nothing was going to do that and he was just going to flame out.

3. He did cost more and was better. But in 2010 with a healthy Rose, I think he would have put us over the top. We had no 2nd option and he did that role perfectly in PHX. I think he'd be able to finish when Rose was trapped. That's what would make it worth it. Boozer while healthier was an average starter here. When Amare would go down, you still had Gibson, Asik and Noah left to soak up the front court minutes. I think the peaks would have been worth it. Where Boozer couldn't finish games or create a shot, Amare was huge in the playoffs in those moments.


Maybe, like I said, he only had one quality year under his contract. It's just a weird thing to say was a big mistake since his contract was an even bigger albatross than Boozer and overall provided even less value than Boozer. Yeah, with complete hindsight, you could say the only year that mattered was the first one due to the Rose injury, but that's kind of a silly way to evaluate the situation. Amare was known as a huge injury risk at the time of signing, and he was never healthy, so it wasn't like it was some unpredictable injury that impact this decision, he was bad for known, expected reasons.

4. I think the mistake was having Gar. That's where a lot of that turbulence came from. Pax has said he's ok with him and I think Gar amped up the tension. Removing Gar and putting in Collins, I think they get along ok. I think Thibs would have been a good coach to lead a Jimmy team and had the prestige at that time to help lure stars.


Maybe true. Hard to say what Gar was responsible for vs Pax. A lot of people seem to give a lot of blame to Gar and not to Pax, and there's some logic behind that, but I wouldn't opine too much on that myself without any first hand information. It's really just blind guesswork because Pax is more likable than Gar.

7. I think you had a star that worked hard, was a two way star and wanted to be here. I said at the time it would take us years to get a guy as good or be a playoff team. And we still aren't close. In this star recruiting team, I wanted to see him have a chance for a couple of years to see what you could do. You could always get the deal for him that you got. it was nothing special.


Minnesota got much less than us and the 76ers got less than Minnesota, so I don't think you could have dealt him later for what you got. I don't know that this ultimately mattered. As I said, we aren't in any special place now. I think to have kept Jimmy around and make it work you would have had to have undid other moves (like Harris/Nurkic and not blowing your money on Wade/Rondo).

The Wade/Rondo one, even though it was a mistake, was tough because the right thing to do was just enter the season with 45 million in cap room which would have made everyone super pissed at the time, but save the money for 17 or 18 when the league was capped out again and not everyone was overpaid by a huge amount. At the same time, of the teams that spent money, the Bulls were actually much better off than most of the league which went in for four years whereas the Bulls only went in for 2.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#42 » by TheStig » Tue Jul 7, 2020 7:40 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:1. Doug, I've gone over this many times here. The owner of the Grizz came out later and said that when they actually dealt him, he tried to deal with the Bulls because they could give them the most financial relief (a ungaurnateed PJ Brown deal vs Kwame) and the Bulls were only doing deals involving Noc (a bad long deal at the time). I'm not looking it up but it came right from his mouth. He had no reason to rehash that since they did better with Gasol then they would have here.


:dontknow:

It was directly contradicted by lots of reports at the time the trade talks were happening, and what you have quoted here doesn't exclude that they didn't want Deng/Gordon whom were both on cheap contracts.

2. I think the mental took a dive because he came there to lead the team and then couldn't big minutes or start. I think he would have had at least 2-3 good years here, especially being put in a big role here, which he would have with Rose going down.


I noted the possibility too, it could be that greater stability would have kept him more even keeled or possible that nothing was going to do that and he was just going to flame out.

3. He did cost more and was better. But in 2010 with a healthy Rose, I think he would have put us over the top. We had no 2nd option and he did that role perfectly in PHX. I think he'd be able to finish when Rose was trapped. That's what would make it worth it. Boozer while healthier was an average starter here. When Amare would go down, you still had Gibson, Asik and Noah left to soak up the front court minutes. I think the peaks would have been worth it. Where Boozer couldn't finish games or create a shot, Amare was huge in the playoffs in those moments.


Maybe, like I said, he only had one quality year under his contract. It's just a weird thing to say was a big mistake since his contract was an even bigger albatross than Boozer and overall provided even less value than Boozer. Yeah, with complete hindsight, you could say the only year that mattered was the first one due to the Rose injury, but that's kind of a silly way to evaluate the situation. Amare was known as a huge injury risk at the time of signing, and he was never healthy, so it wasn't like it was some unpredictable injury that impact this decision, he was bad for known, expected reasons.

4. I think the mistake was having Gar. That's where a lot of that turbulence came from. Pax has said he's ok with him and I think Gar amped up the tension. Removing Gar and putting in Collins, I think they get along ok. I think Thibs would have been a good coach to lead a Jimmy team and had the prestige at that time to help lure stars.


Maybe true. Hard to say what Gar was responsible for vs Pax. A lot of people seem to give a lot of blame to Gar and not to Pax, and there's some logic behind that, but I wouldn't opine too much on that myself without any first hand information. It's really just blind guesswork because Pax is more likable than Gar.

7. I think you had a star that worked hard, was a two way star and wanted to be here. I said at the time it would take us years to get a guy as good or be a playoff team. And we still aren't close. In this star recruiting team, I wanted to see him have a chance for a couple of years to see what you could do. You could always get the deal for him that you got. it was nothing special.


Minnesota got much less than us and the 76ers got less than Minnesota, so I don't think you could have dealt him later for what you got. I don't know that this ultimately mattered. As I said, we aren't in any special place now. I think to have kept Jimmy around and make it work you would have had to have undid other moves (like Harris/Nurkic and not blowing your money on Wade/Rondo).

The Wade/Rondo one, even though it was a mistake, was tough because the right thing to do was just enter the season with 45 million in cap room which would have made everyone super pissed at the time, but save the money for 17 or 18 when the league was capped out again and not everyone was overpaid by a huge amount. At the same time, of the teams that spent money, the Bulls were actually much better off than most of the league which went in for four years whereas the Bulls only went in for 2.

So you're calling the owner a liar? Based on the previous year discussions. Look at what he got. An expiring and a 1st. We could have given them mostly instant cap space and the same 1st. Which would you take?

I agree the stability would have helped and he was always a worker.

Amare's contract was more but shorter. And we amnestied the last year of Boozer, could have done the same with Amare, which would have made it 3 years. The fine line in that 2010 year was so close, that I think having BG and Amare easily put us over the top. Boozer was so bad here. I think we had the bench to deal with Amare's injuries and the peak in the playoffs would have been worth it.

I think from what we hear, Gar was a large part of the problem. He wanted a coach he could control and that's what he got in the next 2.

I mean that's apples to oranges. Minny wouldn't pay and then had to fire sale him. Glen Taylor burned all his value. And the 76ers weren't willing to give him the full 5 year max and still got a nice young player in Richardson. The Bulls traded him while they were in the best position. And even then, Lavine, Dunn and trading up some spots isn't much better than Richardson (and facilitating the Hortford signing), Covington and Saric. I'd even lean toward Richardson on his cheap deal vs Lavine making twice as much. He can be a piece of a championship team.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#43 » by Mech Engineer » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:08 pm

The biggest problem was their over-reliance on draft picks. They couldn't pull of trades for good veterans. When you give a big contract to a MVP, you will never have enough cap space to sign good players. Thibs did a wonderful job of boosting up player values from what we have seen. Most of these players flamed out after being out of Thibs's system. GarPax couldn't make trades to fill needs. That hurt the team more than anything.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#44 » by dougthonus » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:39 pm

TheStig wrote:So you're calling the owner a liar? Based on the previous year discussions. Look at what he got. An expiring and a 1st. We could have given them mostly instant cap space and the same 1st. Which would you take?


I'm saying I agree that the owner wanted Brown and not Noc, but that he also wanted other players too and that isn't excluded from his comment based on the information you gave. This was universally stated in all the reports at the time.

Amare's contract was more but shorter. And we amnestied the last year of Boozer, could have done the same with Amare, which would have made it 3 years. The fine line in that 2010 year was so close, that I think having BG and Amare easily put us over the top. Boozer was so bad here. I think we had the bench to deal with Amare's injuries and the peak in the playoffs would have been worth it.


I don't think Amare's contract wasn't shorter, it was 5/99 vs Boozer's 5/80.

I think from what we hear, Gar was a large part of the problem. He wanted a coach he could control and that's what he got in the next 2.


Could be true, certainly those guys didn't work out. Though I'm not sure that's entirely on the coaches as the rosters were crap. In other circumstances maybe Hoiberg would have been okay, but he certainly didn't do anything that inspired me to want him to stay and neither has Boylen. Similar to Floyd in some respects, guys dealt a bad hand that also did nothing with it.

I mean that's apples to oranges. Minny wouldn't pay and then had to fire sale him. Glen Taylor burned all his value. And the 76ers weren't willing to give him the full 5 year max and still got a nice young player in Richardson. The Bulls traded him while they were in the best position. And even then, Lavine, Dunn and trading up some spots isn't much better than Richardson (and facilitating the Hortford signing), Covington and Saric. I'd even lean toward Richardson on his cheap deal vs Lavine making twice as much. He can be a piece of a championship team.


:dontknow:

I agree, it is somewhat apples and oranges, but he was traded twice after we traded him and the return was much less. If the Bulls failed badly under Butler for a year, why do you think he wouldn't have demanded out of Chicago and been in the same situation as he was in Minnesota? He clearly badly wanted to win.

I hadn't heard that phily wouldn't go the five year max on him. I know there was debate about it (not saying you are wrong, just saying I hadn't heard that). If so, really stupid decision on their part to bring in Horford for so much and give Harris so much but not give Butler money. That seems difficult to believe that was their view because it's so nonsensical given Butler's a much better player than the guys they paid.

You're also looking at players in retrospect, a #7 pick, a #4 pick in his 2nd year, and and a high upside #13 pick in his fourth year that had just broken out last year before gotten hurt is way more. Looks like Dunn is a flop, LaVine is still the best player of anyone in any of the Bulter trades IMO, and Lauri is probably a viable roleplayer. A the time each of these trades were made, the Bulls haul was much better. The Bulls had high risk/high upside assets in their return package and the value since of those players may have degraded as the upside has worn off some though.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#45 » by TheStig » Tue Jul 7, 2020 8:57 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:So you're calling the owner a liar? Based on the previous year discussions. Look at what he got. An expiring and a 1st. We could have given them mostly instant cap space and the same 1st. Which would you take?


I'm saying I agree that the owner wanted Brown and not Noc, but that he also wanted other players too and that isn't excluded from his comment based on the information you gave. This was universally stated in all the reports at the time.

Amare's contract was more but shorter. And we amnestied the last year of Boozer, could have done the same with Amare, which would have made it 3 years. The fine line in that 2010 year was so close, that I think having BG and Amare easily put us over the top. Boozer was so bad here. I think we had the bench to deal with Amare's injuries and the peak in the playoffs would have been worth it.


I don't think Amare's contract wasn't shorter, it was 5/99 vs Boozer's 5/80.

I think from what we hear, Gar was a large part of the problem. He wanted a coach he could control and that's what he got in the next 2.


Could be true, certainly those guys didn't work out. Though I'm not sure that's entirely on the coaches as the rosters were crap. In other circumstances maybe Hoiberg would have been okay, but he certainly didn't do anything that inspired me to want him to stay and neither has Boylen. Similar to Floyd in some respects, guys dealt a bad hand that also did nothing with it.

I mean that's apples to oranges. Minny wouldn't pay and then had to fire sale him. Glen Taylor burned all his value. And the 76ers weren't willing to give him the full 5 year max and still got a nice young player in Richardson. The Bulls traded him while they were in the best position. And even then, Lavine, Dunn and trading up some spots isn't much better than Richardson (and facilitating the Hortford signing), Covington and Saric. I'd even lean toward Richardson on his cheap deal vs Lavine making twice as much. He can be a piece of a championship team.


:dontknow:

I agree, it is somewhat apples and oranges, but he was traded twice after we traded him and the return was much less. If the Bulls failed badly under Butler for a year, why do you think he wouldn't have demanded out of Chicago and been in the same situation as he was in Minnesota? He clearly badly wanted to win.

I hadn't heard that phily wouldn't go the five year max on him. I know there was debate about it (not saying you are wrong, just saying I hadn't heard that). If so, really stupid decision on their part to bring in Horford for so much and give Harris so much but not give Butler money. That seems difficult to believe that was their view because it's so nonsensical given Butler's a much better player than the guys they paid.

You're also looking at players in retrospect, a #7 pick, a #4 pick in his 2nd year, and and a high upside #13 pick in his fourth year that had just broken out last year before gotten hurt is way more. Looks like Dunn is a flop, LaVine is still the best player of anyone in any of the Bulter trades IMO, and Lauri is probably a viable roleplayer. A the time each of these trades were made, the Bulls haul was much better. The Bulls had high risk/high upside assets in their return package and the value since of those players may have degraded as the upside has worn off some though.

I'm sure he asked for other players but most of those rumors were from the year before when Jerry West was there. The new GM was under orders to fire sale him. So am I led to believe they wouldn't have prefered to fire sale him for instant salary relief and a pick as the main parts of the deal vs an expiring and a pick? I think they would have taken the Bulls deal because they weren't making any money and needed to cut salary. The owner said he was trying to make a deal with us but we wouldn't go into the LT by absorbing most of the salary but wanted to offset it with Noc.

Fair, I'm sorry, I thought it was a 4yr. I still think he puts us over the top. Boozer was such a waste of money here.

I think Thibs got crap rosters into the playoffs. So I think he could have easily gotten to the playoffs that next year and probably improves us enough the 3 alphas year to win a series instead of barely sneaking in.

You're looking at it from Rosey glasses. Lavine was coming of a torn ACL and hadn't played a game back ( you just argued you would have traded Rose an MVP after his and athletic gaurds don't recover) and a guy who didn't play any D, literally the worst rookie that year in Dunn, and a trading up a few spots for a star player on both ends on a good deal and headed into his prime. The package was not impressive at the time. And I'll say it again, the other two trades had no leverage whatsoever and Philly still got Richardson and cap space for him. Which is pretty much up there with Lavine on a giant deal, Dunn who we might not even resign and trading up a few slots.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#46 » by dougthonus » Tue Jul 7, 2020 9:02 pm

TheStig wrote:I'm sure he asked for other players but most of those rumors were from the year before when Jerry West was there. The new GM was under orders to fire sale him. So am I led to believe they wouldn't have prefered to fire sale him for instant salary relief and a pick as the main parts of the deal vs an expiring and a pick? I think they would have taken the Bulls deal because they weren't making any money and needed to cut salary. The owner said he was trying to make a deal with us but we wouldn't go into the LT by absorbing most of the salary but wanted to offset it with Noc.


Sorry,I was thinking of the wrong trade year. I forgot that in 07/08 there was the period where the Bulls could have signed and traded Brown even though he wasn't on the roster.

I think Thibs got crap rosters into the playoffs. So I think he could have easily gotten to the playoffs that next year and probably improves us enough the 3 alphas year to win a series instead of barely sneaking in.


I don't think so, but who knows. I agree I'm not pumping Hoiberg or anything, but I think Thibs was done.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#47 » by TheStig » Tue Jul 7, 2020 10:01 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:I'm sure he asked for other players but most of those rumors were from the year before when Jerry West was there. The new GM was under orders to fire sale him. So am I led to believe they wouldn't have prefered to fire sale him for instant salary relief and a pick as the main parts of the deal vs an expiring and a pick? I think they would have taken the Bulls deal because they weren't making any money and needed to cut salary. The owner said he was trying to make a deal with us but we wouldn't go into the LT by absorbing most of the salary but wanted to offset it with Noc.


Sorry,I was thinking of the wrong trade year. I forgot that in 07/08 there was the period where the Bulls could have signed and traded Brown even though he wasn't on the roster.

I think Thibs got crap rosters into the playoffs. So I think he could have easily gotten to the playoffs that next year and probably improves us enough the 3 alphas year to win a series instead of barely sneaking in.


I don't think so, but who knows. I agree I'm not pumping Hoiberg or anything, but I think Thibs was done.

No worries.

How can you say he's done. He got the Wolves into the playoffs recently. He's still a good coach and the kinda guy who works for a Jimmy led team. Would I want Thibs with this roster? I'd go Joerger and maybe Atkinson or a assistant. I don't think Thibs does well with losing and our roster is nowhere near the playoffs.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#48 » by dougthonus » Tue Jul 7, 2020 11:05 pm

TheStig wrote:How can you say he's done. He got the Wolves into the playoffs recently. He's still a good coach and the kinda guy who works for a Jimmy led team. Would I want Thibs with this roster? I'd go Joerger and maybe Atkinson or a assistant. I don't think Thibs does well with losing and our roster is nowhere near the playoffs.


Sorry, let me rephrase, I think Thibs was done with those players and that roster. People have an expiration date at a given job in all fields, but I think that's especially so in something like pro sports. Thibs just reached his with the Bulls. He lost the players IMO and there was too much negativity and hostility for him to continue going on. I don't think that was all his fault or anything. The Rose situation was just a weight on everyone's shoulders, every year wondering if he'd return to form and if the Bulls could compete or not and always having the answer end up as 'no'. I just think that relationship had run its course here, not that Thibodeau suddenly became a moron and couldn't coach basketball.
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Re: Beating a dead horse - GarPaxDorf "What ifs" between 12-15 

Post#49 » by TheStig » Tue Jul 7, 2020 11:46 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:How can you say he's done. He got the Wolves into the playoffs recently. He's still a good coach and the kinda guy who works for a Jimmy led team. Would I want Thibs with this roster? I'd go Joerger and maybe Atkinson or a assistant. I don't think Thibs does well with losing and our roster is nowhere near the playoffs.


Sorry, let me rephrase, I think Thibs was done with those players and that roster. People have an expiration date at a given job in all fields, but I think that's especially so in something like pro sports. Thibs just reached his with the Bulls. He lost the players IMO and there was too much negativity and hostility for him to continue going on. I don't think that was all his fault or anything. The Rose situation was just a weight on everyone's shoulders, every year wondering if he'd return to form and if the Bulls could compete or not and always having the answer end up as 'no'. I just think that relationship had run its course here, not that Thibodeau suddenly became a moron and couldn't coach basketball.

I think Jimmy was still with him and they turned over the rest of the roster the following year. It's not like they were committed to Rose, Noah, Gibson long term. I agree his style could wear on most. But not Jimmy. I can certainly see your point if it was Rose and Noah. I don't think those two would be down for it in their next stage but Gibson signed with Minny to be coached by Thibs. Jimmy took a trade there and would have been their long term if Glen Taylor paid him. So I think a Jimmy led team would have been fine under Thibs.

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