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Second "bubble" in Chicago

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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#81 » by MGB8 » Wed Jul 8, 2020 3:40 pm

dougthonus wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:From everything we know about Covid, it's infinitely clear that you're safer outside with people than inside. Obviously, the hope is that everyone inside the bubble is healthy and safe and eliminates all that risk to begin with, but let's see if that's actually the case.


The science behind being safer outdoors than indoors is a matter of air movement and circulation though, inside a massive gym the size of the space relative to the number of people probably gives you a pretty similar result as long as you aren't letting fans in.

Also, if you create a bubble, odds are this also gives you a pretty similar result.

Either way, I'd say on aggregate, the players are probably safe in the bubble than if they weren't in the bubble given that most people (NBA players or otherwise) are engaging in far riskier behavior than these players would be exposed to. Hell, I'm engaging in far riskier behavior just by having to go to the grocery store once a week.

As for the courts, there's no question it's better to play on indoor courts than outdoor courts, but we're in weird times as it is. If I remember correctly, the league played a few exhibition games outdoors several years back.


Yeah, I guess it just depends how much risk you think this mitigates. The reasons why inside is worse than outside don't generally seem to be applicable in this case. I'd imagine that if any players get COVID while in the bubble the whole bubble is in question.


There is one additional benefit to being outdoors - the sun - where solar (UV) radiation does a good job of speeding the death of the virus both on surfaces and in aerosol droplets. So it might be worth thinking about - particularly if you could set up hardwood courts at a not-too-substantial cost. Of course you'd also have to work around rain / wind...

Haven't they played some basketball outdoors at the Olympics at one time or another? I think I remember that happen.. but not sure at all.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#82 » by MikeDC » Wed Jul 8, 2020 4:42 pm

dougthonus wrote:
MikeDC wrote:I agree you should remove as much error as possible. I don't know why you've brought up toilets multiple times, as far as I know there is no evidence that it spreads that way.


It's been established that potentially infectious levels of COVID are present in poop.

It's also been established that, well, small amounts of your poop get pretty much everywhere if you don't practice good hygiene. Which many people do not. If 1 in 6 cell phones has detectable amounts of poop on it, that's bad.

Then there's an established literature that notes the risk of infection from toilet flush plumes, on top of all the other basic surfaces people touch.

Best not to think about, but I've had a couple doctors point it out as well. Generally speaking, when people go to the bathroom, some stays on the hands and nearby surfaces (including phones if they're out). Fewer people wash their hands than they say they do, so if they wipe their butt then go touch make your meal or your bed, that's a potential transmission. Likewise, when the toilet flushes, some small amounts of poop are present in the aerosol that gets created (which then land on the surfaces of the bathroom that the next person is going to touch.

This kind of thing has been demonstrated for a long time. You can ask people to wash their hands, not touch their faces, etc, but humans just aren't wired for that kind of discipline. It breaks down, and this is a primary source of disease spread.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#83 » by dougthonus » Wed Jul 8, 2020 4:52 pm

MikeDC wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
MikeDC wrote:I agree you should remove as much error as possible. I don't know why you've brought up toilets multiple times, as far as I know there is no evidence that it spreads that way.


It's been established that potentially infectious levels of COVID are present in poop.

It's also been established that, well, small amounts of your poop get pretty much everywhere if you don't practice good hygiene. Which many people do not. If 1 in 6 cell phones has detectable amounts of poop on it, that's bad.

Then there's an established literature that notes the risk of infection from toilet flush plumes, on top of all the other basic surfaces people touch.

Best not to think about, but I've had a couple doctors point it out as well. Generally speaking, when people go to the bathroom, some stays on the hands and nearby surfaces (including phones if they're out). Fewer people wash their hands than they say they do, so if they wipe their butt then go touch make your meal or your bed, that's a potential transmission. Likewise, when the toilet flushes, some small amounts of poop are present in the aerosol that gets created (which then land on the surfaces of the bathroom that the next person is going to touch.


The study you linked was from January and states it's unclear whether or not it is infectious in feces.

More recent research shows surface contact is not thought to be a primary method of transmission, and the amount of virus in fecal matter that might be on your hands is likely completely irrelevant even in this type of method of transmission, because the amount on your hand from your breathing would likely be way worse.

I mean it's a moot point in general, and it doesn't take away from all your other points about risk in the bubble, but I don't think toilets are a source of concern. That's not stated anywhere I have seen in recent research and isn't even stated that way in the research you showed, but if they are or aren't, the overall point you are making that there is concern is still valid.

To the extent surface contact is going to be an issue, they will need to mitigate that risk be it due to fecal matter or contact through sanitization.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#84 » by MikeDC » Wed Jul 8, 2020 5:42 pm

dougthonus wrote:
MikeDC wrote:
dougthonus wrote:


It's been established that potentially infectious levels of COVID are present in poop.

It's also been established that, well, small amounts of your poop get pretty much everywhere if you don't practice good hygiene. Which many people do not. If 1 in 6 cell phones has detectable amounts of poop on it, that's bad.

Then there's an established literature that notes the risk of infection from toilet flush plumes, on top of all the other basic surfaces people touch.

Best not to think about, but I've had a couple doctors point it out as well. Generally speaking, when people go to the bathroom, some stays on the hands and nearby surfaces (including phones if they're out). Fewer people wash their hands than they say they do, so if they wipe their butt then go touch make your meal or your bed, that's a potential transmission. Likewise, when the toilet flushes, some small amounts of poop are present in the aerosol that gets created (which then land on the surfaces of the bathroom that the next person is going to touch.


The study you linked was from January and states it's unclear whether or not it is infectious in feces.

More recent research shows surface contact is not thought to be a primary method of transmission, and the amount of virus in fecal matter that might be on your hands is likely completely irrelevant even in this type of method of transmission, because the amount on your hand from your breathing would likely be way worse.


1. You have to understand the nomenclature used in scientific articles. Technically speaking, the WHO is still on the fence about whether it's even spread through the air. If you know a contagion is present in a substance, and you know that substance is getting spread and turned into an aerosol in the immediate environment, the smart course of action is to exercise caution and not dismiss it.

2. It really doesn't matter if it it's "a primary method". It just matters if it's a method. If it poses a 10% risk of infection while breath poses a 20% risk of infection, the end result is that it still poses a risk. From a mathematical perspective, each individual interaction poses a small risk. But the large number of interactions is what poses the high risk.

I mean it's a moot point in general, and it doesn't take away from all your other points about risk in the bubble, but I don't think toilets are a source of concern. That's not stated anywhere I have seen in recent research and isn't even stated that way in the research you showed.


I don't know what you are reading or why you are interpreting the article I cited that way, but to highlight, it said:
Abstract of article from CDC wrote:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was isolated from feces of a patient in China with coronavirus disease who died. Confirmation of infectious virus in feces affirms the potential for fecal–oral or fecal–respiratory transmission and warrants further study.


If you can provide some evidence that this has been disproven, and that there is no potential for this kind of transmission, that'd be great.

But... I don't expect it. In looking around today, what I see is:

From May 27th:
COVID-19 virus isolated from the stool of a sick patient can infect cells in a petri dish.


Here's a NY Times article
“The aerosols generated by toilets are something that we’ve kind of known about for a while, but many people have taken for granted,” said Joshua L. Santarpia, a professor of pathology and microbiology at the University of Nebraska Medical Center who was not involved in the research. “This study adds a lot of the evidence that everyone needs in order to take better action.”
...
Experience with other coronaviruses shows how quickly the fecal-oral route can lead to spread of disease. In March 2003, more than 300 people living in the Amoy Gardens apartment complex in Hong Kong got infected with the original SARS coronavirus because infectious fecal aerosols spread through faulty plumbing and ventilation systems.


To the extent surface contact is going to be an issue, surfaces going to be affected by people breathing on them much more so than any residual fecal matter that's going to be around.


Unfortunately, it's just not an either/or situation. Breathing can be the biggest problem while still not being the only problem. If breathing being the biggest problem leads folks to dismiss or disregard other threats, that's obviously kind of an issue as well.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#85 » by dougthonus » Wed Jul 8, 2020 5:51 pm

MikeDC wrote:Unfortunately, it's just not an either/or situation. Breathing can be the biggest problem while still not being the only problem. If breathing being the biggest problem leads folks to dismiss or disregard other threats, that's obviously kind of an issue as well.


Appreciate the research, and while I can't say I'm on the same page as you overall, I don't think that's really relevant to the grander point that they need to be careful and put in protocols to maintain surface contact as well as using masks.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#86 » by AirLaVine8 » Thu Jul 9, 2020 3:19 am

The NBA can always can use Adelaide (Australia) as the bubble. No Covid cases in over 40 days. Our local competitions resume games in 2 weeks. We have plenty of stadiums within short distances of each other.

Yes, I know this wouldn't ever happen....
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#87 » by Jcool0 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:14 am

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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#88 » by jgonboricua » Mon Aug 3, 2020 11:16 pm

If you are a player coming up on a contract yr like Lauri is do you take the risk and play meaningless games just so you can get some reps in?
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#89 » by HomoSapien » Mon Aug 3, 2020 11:23 pm

jgonboricua wrote:If you are a player coming up on a contract yr like Lauri is do you take the risk and play meaningless games just so you can get some reps in?


If he were having a better season, I think he'd definitely sit, but he had such a poor season that he probably needs to consider rebuilding his value.
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Re: Second "bubble" in Chicago 

Post#90 » by johnnyvann840 » Thu Aug 6, 2020 3:39 am

ATRAIN53 wrote:
transplant wrote:I have to be honest with you guys, I'd just as soon see all sports in the US hold off until we have an effective vaccine. There's a decent chance that someone's gonna die and I don't have the stomach for it.


agreed. it's just not worth the risk - but there is a TON of $$$$ involved.

$$$$ is what makes the world function so they will try hard to make this happen.

I just feel guilty celebrating stuff like Luka Doncic going off in a game while people are dying in the middle of a global pandemic.

I kinda figured if we ever had a glbal pandemic - sports would be the least of our concerns.
turns out that's not true and why this has happened over and over in history and will keep happening-

Leaders ignore warnings in the interest of money, power, land, women.......

I thought it was funny to read a tweet about how every sci fi movie with a global disaster always starts with some scientist sounding warning and then being ignored by the gov until I realized it's true and what is currently happening.

I miss sports but I would rather see al this time and energy put into saving lives and this feels like it's a unecessary risk just for my entertainment.


I'm with you. I honestly couldn't care less about the NBA than I do right now. Have not watched a single minute of it and won't because I just don't GAF.
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