Image ImageImage Image

Article: Does Coby have All Star potential?

Moderators: HomoSapien, Ice Man, AshyLarrysDiaper, Tommy Udo 6 , GimmeDat, dougthonus, DASMACKDOWN, Payt10, kulaz3000, fleet, RedBulls23

MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 15,641
And1: 5,263
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#61 » by MrSparkle » Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:55 pm

wonderboy2 wrote:Coby, and Lavine are easily the most talented players on the team. The most overrated player on this team especially on this board is Sato. Dude was dog **** this season. Bulls made a huge mistake by signing him. He’s vastly overpaid. There are vet minimim PGs that are better than him.


Sato for his invisible play... kinda ranks decently well as a two-way rotation player, although he had a terrible year by his career shooting standards. I don’t know if he’s overrated. I do think he should’ve been coming off the bench all year. If he finds his 3P stroke next year, he’d be a good 8th man.

His impact totally reminds me of Ilyasova and Belinelli when Sixers picked them up off the waiver wires. Great as bargains. Just not a guy I’d spent 2-3 years of cap-space for. It was very GarPax-ish signing two low-ceiling reserves at crowded positions, with $25m in cap-space. Not much different than wasting the same on Wade.

I still can't understand why people expected Sato to be some kind of revelational steal even after a solid FIBA showing. He had the Wizards in the tank as Wall's replacement starting guard.
2018C3
Junior
Posts: 439
And1: 291
Joined: Jul 14, 2018
   

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#62 » by 2018C3 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:19 am

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcqQO-nXkAEf8ml?format=jpg&name=medium

I knew he would fill out into a strong stocky guard. This is a good start.

When I was his age I hit the gym hard and went from a skinny 170 pound weakling to 205 in just three years. A few years later I got too big / strong and weighed 225, I then cut back to under 195.


I'm now a out of shape near 50 old guy trying to get under 200 once again. gaining any strength is no longer a concern.

Last year I arm wrestled my younger brother and won, but my elbow hurt for about 6 months, Never again!. He will never again have the chance to defeat me as long as we both shall live.

edit: ...........................

About 15 years ago my brother purchased a house and had a party. When we were kids we used to wrestle and I would always tuck his feet behind his head. At his house party, we both got drunk, and I went to bed first. He attacked me in the middle of the night thinking he could out wrestle me and give payback, and once again I stuck his feet behind his head. Who knew he would still be so flexible after all those years? lol.

It must suck to be a younger brother, even though he is bigger and stronger, there is still a weird mental game he never could overcome.
wonderboy2
Veteran
Posts: 2,855
And1: 1,816
Joined: Jul 05, 2013

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#63 » by wonderboy2 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:26 am

MrSparkle wrote:
wonderboy2 wrote:Coby, and Lavine are easily the most talented players on the team. The most overrated player on this team especially on this board is Sato. Dude was dog **** this season. Bulls made a huge mistake by signing him. He’s vastly overpaid. There are vet minimim PGs that are better than him.


Sato for his invisible play... kinda ranks decently well as a two-way rotation player, although he had a terrible year by his career shooting standards. I don’t know if he’s overrated. I do think he should’ve been coming off the bench all year. If he finds his 3P stroke next year, he’d be a good 8th man.

His impact totally reminds me of Ilyasova and Belinelli when Sixers picked them up off the waiver wires. Great as bargains. Just not a guy I’d spent 2-3 years of cap-space for. It was very GarPax-ish signing two low-ceiling reserves at crowded positions, with $25m in cap-space. Not much different than wasting the same on Wade.

I still can't understand why people expected Sato to be some kind of revelational steal even after a solid FIBA showing. He had the Wizards in the tank as Wall's replacement starting guard.

Sato is NOT a 2 way player. I don’t care what the numbers say he was a TERRIBLE defender last year. He routinely got beat off the dribble. So much so that Kendal Gill, Will Perdue, Stacey King, Goff started to fall him out a lot toward the end of the year. Lavine for all of the Flack he gets had to guard the other teams best player because Sato was terrible on that end. Sato played like a bitch too. He was scared as hell to shoot. Passing up wide open shots. He missed bigs routinely in transition. Teams point guards started to press him up the court because they did not respect his blow by ability. Speaking about blow by ability he couldn’t do anything when bigs switched off on him. Teams also caught on that he was scared to shoot. Sato would drive to the basket and have in open lane but teams would know he was not a threat to score and he would cover all 4 other guys on the court leading to force shots late in the shot clock. Bellenelli was so much better than Sato. Sato was the worst starting pg in the league last year. **** terrible.
2018C3
Junior
Posts: 439
And1: 291
Joined: Jul 14, 2018
   

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#64 » by 2018C3 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:55 am

I'm sure this Coby photo, was taken directly after a workout, where he is still all pumped up, but he was already pretty stacked for a 19 year old when drafted,
User avatar
MikeDC
Pro Prospect
Posts: 833
And1: 199
Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Location: DC Area

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#65 » by MikeDC » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:31 pm

It's weird how fans are simultaneously too optimistic and too pessimistic. I think, really, most people just look at things from fundamentally incorrect starting points.

If you want to make a realistic comparison, you start by making sure you compare the same thing. The starting points are pretty well set. See how Coby stacks up against guys of similar size, position, age and experience. This is incredibly easy to do. Here. This is a list of all Guards <=20 years old during their rookie seasons whose usage rate is >20 and played significant (>1000) minutes.

That's 39 guys. Then, you can start whittling it down. Don't subscribe to any one statistic, but choose relatively broad ranges around Kobe. for example, limit BPM to 0 to -4.5. That's right in the middle of Coby's -2.8. That gets you down to 22 guys. Then, whittle it down some more. Say, look at assist %, TO % and PER. Then look at more secondary things, like how far apart guys are on usage rebounding, free throws and shooting types.

When I get through that process the guys with the overall most similar profiles are:
* D'Angelo Russell
* De'Aaron Fox
* J.R. Smith
* Devin Booker
* Tyler Herro
* Jamal Murray
* Kevin Porter

Obviously Herro and Porter are fellow rookies, so that doesn't tell us much, but ALL of those players with similar profiles are/were good to very good players. Without getting into semantic discussions, I'd say each of those guys (Russell, Smith, Booker, Fox, Murray) are reasonably looked at as "core" players. They might not be the best player on their team, but they're definitely key pieces of a team.

A couple other notes there:
* Coby does a good job, relative to similar players, of taking care of the ball. I wrote about it at length at the time, but it was a crime that the Bulls really didn't start giving him development opportunities at PG until the very end.
* He's also pretty well rounded. For a young guy, his defensive fundamentals are sound, he's relatively strong, and he can do a lot of things pretty well. A guy he kind of reminds me of is Eddie Jones, but with more PG aspect to his game.
StunnerKO
Veteran
Posts: 2,772
And1: 1,864
Joined: Sep 25, 2017

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#66 » by StunnerKO » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:39 am

User avatar
chitowndish
Senior
Posts: 570
And1: 318
Joined: Apr 27, 2014
   

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#67 » by chitowndish » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:00 am

I really love Coby's game I was ticked that most of this team folded like chairs and a Lavine seemed like one of the only guys you could go to war with but White was another guy that even Lavine was just thankful was out there most nights. He went through the rookie wall but I was impressed with how he kept fighting. I think he's got the potential to be a really good player his defense is solid he fights well and I liked how his passing was looking toward the end he is really unselfish and has good vision and can pass well but just needs time and reps to develop this part of the game, the thing I really love about him though is his change of pace he is absolutely explosive but has a bit of an old man game where he can move slowly, probe the defense get to where he wants to get on the court and just attack. He has this really herky jerky style that kind of reminds me of Ginobli a bit in that nobody really knows what to do with him and he's a great 1-2 punch with Lavine because of this I think (he's really unconventional so it throws people off).

I don't know that his game is going to be great for getting into the Allstar games (Lavine is geared toward that) but I'm ok with that. He's the kind of guy that can really contribute to a winning team so if he ends up being the second/third best player on a really good team I could definitely see it and he may very well get in as a coach selection I think. I do think of Coby as kind of an offensive version of Noah he has an incredible fire and genuinely seems to care about the people around him which they can tell and respond to. I think Noah had a lot of that and and it can really hold a team together so I'm excited to see what this kid does.
chefo
Junior
Posts: 477
And1: 870
Joined: Apr 29, 2009

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#68 » by chefo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:44 pm

White, just like Lauri his soph year, has shown what he can be. Which is an excellent, high volume scorer. Now it's the Bulls' job not to screw up his development by coming up with a system where he gets to sit in the corner spacing for 75% of the team's possessions like they did with Lauri this past year.

For example, just pointing out the obvious-- Zach is not a good facilitator, has never been one and will likely never be one. We don't know what Coby will turn out to be in that regard, but if he can't run a team either--well the Bulls will have to choose one or the other.

But, as of today, you put them on the floor together and there are not enough balls to go around for two players with such insanely high projected usage. That means everybody else on the team needs to be a spacer/low volume player, which means that Sato, Lauri and Otto don't belong on that roster long-term because you'll be overpaying for what you're using them for with Zach and Coby at 30+ usage rates (think Portland). It will also likely mean that WCJ will continue to pout because he probably won't get to touch the rock all that much and won't be featured much. If the Bulls managed to misuse/underuse Lauri, who is vastly more talented on O than WCJ... then last year is probably your preview of WCJ's ceiling. He'll never be Bam, even if one can argue he could be just as good.

BTW, I sincerely think that his ascendance late in the season is not a mere coincidence of the Bulls loosening up what's allowed on O. Players like Coby need to keep defenders honest and HAVE to be a triple threat.

Just to sum up, I like what I see from Coby, but I have a suspicion that him and Zach fill the same role and it may be difficult for Coby to reach his full potential unless Zach moves off ball and willingly takes a step backwards in responsibility (which IMO is what he should do regardless if there is a Coby on the team or nor, but is something I don't see Zach doing willingly).
sco
RealGM
Posts: 14,889
And1: 3,801
Joined: Sep 22, 2003
Location: Virtually Everywhere!

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#69 » by sco » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:53 pm

chefo wrote:White, just like Lauri his soph year, has shown what he can be. Which is an excellent, high volume scorer. Now it's the Bulls' job not to screw up his development by coming up with a system where he gets to sit in the corner spacing for 75% of the team's possessions like they did with Lauri this past year.

For example, just pointing out the obvious-- Zach is not a good facilitator, has never been one and will likely never be one. We don't know what Coby will turn out to be in that regard, but if he can't run a team either--well the Bulls will have to choose one or the other.

But, as of today, you put them on the floor together and there are not enough balls to go around for two players with such insanely high projected usage. That means everybody else on the team needs to be a spacer/low volume player, which means that Sato, Lauri and Otto don't belong on that roster long-term because you'll be overpaying for what you're using them for with Zach and Coby at 30+ usage rates (think Portland). It will also likely mean that WCJ will continue to pout because he probably won't get to touch the rock all that much and won't be featured much. If the Bulls managed to misuse/underuse Lauri, who is vastly more talented on O than WCJ... then last year is probably your preview of WCJ's ceiling. He'll never be Bam, even if one can argue he could be just as good.

BTW, I sincerely think that his ascendance late in the season is not a mere coincidence of the Bulls loosening up what's allowed on O. Players like Coby need to keep defenders honest and HAVE to be a triple threat.

Just to sum up, I like what I see from Coby, but I have a suspicion that him and Zach fill the same role and it may be difficult for Coby to reach his full potential unless Zach moves off ball and willingly takes a step backwards in responsibility (which IMO is what he should do regardless if there is a Coby on the team or nor, but is something I don't see Zach doing willingly).

IDK, I think Zach isn't the ball hog folks make him out to be. He strikes me as a good #2 scorer - ie shoot first, unless he's covered.

Otto was his best as a low-shot volume glue guy.

Lauri has shown that he can't create his own shot, and might thrive as a 13-16 shot per game guy, but I worry that he doesn't bring enough other things to be a 3rd option guy (rebounding, ball handling, defense)
:clap:
User avatar
MikeDC
Pro Prospect
Posts: 833
And1: 199
Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Location: DC Area

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#70 » by MikeDC » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:21 pm

sco wrote:
chefo wrote:White, just like Lauri his soph year, has shown what he can be. Which is an excellent, high volume scorer. Now it's the Bulls' job not to screw up his development by coming up with a system where he gets to sit in the corner spacing for 75% of the team's possessions like they did with Lauri this past year.

For example, just pointing out the obvious-- Zach is not a good facilitator, has never been one and will likely never be one. We don't know what Coby will turn out to be in that regard, but if he can't run a team either--well the Bulls will have to choose one or the other.
...
Just to sum up, I like what I see from Coby, but I have a suspicion that him and Zach fill the same role and it may be difficult for Coby to reach his full potential unless Zach moves off ball and willingly takes a step backwards in responsibility (which IMO is what he should do regardless if there is a Coby on the team or nor, but is something I don't see Zach doing willingly).

IDK, I think Zach isn't the ball hog folks make him out to be. He strikes me as a good #2 scorer - ie shoot first, unless he's covered.


I'm optimistic on this because of Zach's last year with the TWolves. He seemed to have no complaints about sharing the ball reducing usage while Towns and Wiggins amped theirs up. This was an effective role for him, and what the Bulls always should have been shooting for instead of encouraging the hero ball he ended up kind of having to play because everyone else generally sucked.

What folks really need to understand though, is that this isn't a huge change in role. It would still be plenty reasonable for Zach to be in the 25% usage range when playing next to Coby. Just not the 30+ range he's in now. But 30+ is an unsustainable number for Zach and most players. What that means in practice is probably 4-5 possessions a game. That's not a huge ask, it's going to end with Zach still being the #1 option by far, and it's going to be offset by the fact that his remaining possessions are going to be higher quality ones than he's been getting playing next to offensive non-entities like Arci and Dunn.
User avatar
Mr. Tibbs
Head Coach
Posts: 6,289
And1: 339
Joined: Jun 25, 2006

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#71 » by Mr. Tibbs » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:57 pm

If I had to put a percentage on it, I think I'd give it about a 10% chance of happening, which isn't a knock on him whatsoever. He's better than I thought he'd be on both ends of the floor, and he clearly has the skills to hang around in the league. He also looks to have good drive, and the desire to want to max out his potential. With that being said.

13 points on 12 shots just isn't gonna cut it. There is a huge gulf between that and the type of efficiency that and what an all star should warrant. More than any shooting percentage increase, he needs to find a way to increase his ability to get to the free throw line, which to me is a pretty big separator from good and great players. Even some of the more questionable all star guards like Kyle Lowry was close to 5 made fts a game. Ben Simmons at 3.3 made on 5 attempts per game. That is worlds different than Coby and his 1.5. (Simmons isn't quite as big a gap obviously, but his value is more than made up for in other ways that I doubt Coby could ever match).

On top of that, I just don't think that it could happen without him getting the keys to control the offense as a point guard more often. Which we also have to ask ourselves, is that the really best option for the Bulls to succeed as a team or just for Coby to get his own stats up?

I hope I look back at this post embarrassingly after Coby is a multi year all star and leading the Bulls back to the playoffs, but I'm not holding my breath.
RIP Johnny Red Kerr, Norm Van Lier, Pdenninggolden, Bullsmaniac
User avatar
DASMACKDOWN
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 24,483
And1: 9,451
Joined: Nov 01, 2001
Location: Cookin' with Derrick Rose

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#72 » by DASMACKDOWN » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:22 pm

Its always a wait and see approach.

Take Lauri and Jayson Tatum for instance. The first 2 years Lauri was arguably better than Jayson Tatum in any of his first 2 seasons. But this year Jayson Tatum blew Lauri out of the water. Where people were legit asking would Lauri go #1 overall if they redrafted after his second season. Seems laughable now based on year 3.

I actually think in this draft there are alot of sleeping giants to come. The talk as all been about Zion and Ja and for good reason.

But after year 2 and 3, others will emerge as stars. I think Coby will be one of them.
The quest for #7
samwana
General Manager
Posts: 8,979
And1: 1,951
Joined: Jul 24, 2002
Location: Munich (Germany)
 

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#73 » by samwana » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:15 pm

I hope he works on his lower body too.
User avatar
Repeat 3-peat
RealGM
Posts: 10,085
And1: 9,531
Joined: Nov 02, 2013
 

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#74 » by Repeat 3-peat » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:20 pm

DASMACKDOWN wrote:Its always a wait and see approach.

Take Lauri and Jayson Tatum for instance. The first 2 years Lauri was arguably better than Jayson Tatum in any of his first 2 seasons. But this year Jayson Tatum blew Lauri out of the water. Where people were legit asking would Lauri go #1 overall if they redrafted after his second season. Seems laughable now based on year 3.

I actually think in this draft there are alot of sleeping giants to come. The talk as all been about Zion and Ja and for good reason.

But after year 2 and 3, others will emerge as stars. I think Coby will be one of them.


Tatum is special, He's going to be a problem for years to come.
User avatar
greenl
Starter
Posts: 2,395
And1: 1,465
Joined: Mar 08, 2012

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#75 » by greenl » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:16 am

No.
"Children are smarter than any of us. Know how I know that? I don't know one child with a full time job and children." - Bill Hicks
User avatar
Repeat 3-peat
RealGM
Posts: 10,085
And1: 9,531
Joined: Nov 02, 2013
 

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#76 » by Repeat 3-peat » Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:48 am

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter
User avatar
PaKii94
Head Coach
Posts: 6,737
And1: 3,568
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Article: Does Coby have All Star potential? 

Post#77 » by PaKii94 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:10 am

Repeat 3-peat wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Coby definitely got a lot more comfortable later on. I think we would have seen a trae young type of turn around if the season has continued

Return to Chicago Bulls