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Clean House?

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Re: Clean House? 

Post#21 » by sco » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:58 pm

MadGrinch wrote:
sco wrote:
MadGrinch wrote:

or they are smart enough to try to boost the trade value of their assets.

no one is going to want to give you much if they think you don't believe in their value

If I were them, I would largely stay put to assess what they have talent-wise. The only core guy who has shown consistency in what he is, is Zach. While he isn't good enough to build a contender around, he's young enough to keep as a core piece - barring a trade opportunity for a guy they think is that centerpiece guy (which is unlikely).

Otto is likely here next season, and if he can play healthy and consistently, he may have value at the deadline.

Lauri has shown enough to warrant a closer look next season. Given his injuries and inconsistency, his trade value, IMO, is less than his option value to give him another shot.

WCJ, Coby, Hutch and Gafford all fall into the bucket of young guys who have shown flashes of very good NBA play, mixed with inconsistency that is expected from rookies/2nd year guys who have been injured for long stretches. They have all demonstrated a work ethic and professionalism.

We'll have our 1st rounder to sort out, too.

That's a lot to sort out for the new FO. Best case scenario is that one guy takes a big step forward and a couple others show they are capable starting talent next season.


all that may be true ...but new regimes of losing franchises almost always clean house .

there are exceptions to the rule of course but that doesn't appear to be the case here .

I'm not saying they won't, but unlike many losing franchises, this one is stocked with under 26 year old 1st rounders who have shown at least some potential - many coming off injury-riddled seasons. Given nearly universally low trade values for guys, the smart move would be to take the season to assess. AK has said as much about Lauri, and if you'd give your slow, poor shooting, disgruntled guy that rope, I think it would be a more general approach to others.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#22 » by wickywack » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:49 pm

MadGrinch wrote:Most GM's of losing teams clean house within the 1st year.


This was certainly true the last two times the Bulls changed top execs.

When Krause took over in 85, it was, in Jordan's words, "the best talent I ever played with". A pretty young team too. A year in, only Jordan and Corzine were left.

Pax took over on 03. Also a young and talented squad. A year in, only Chandler and Curry were left. Two years in, just Chandler, and he was gone the year after.

In hindsight, both guys made the right calls overall.

This squad has a similar feel to it to the one Pax took over.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#23 » by dougthonus » Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:06 pm

wonderboy2 wrote:Sato sucks as I can list plenty of vet min players better then him. Tell me something he does well. He not a great passer, can’t defend for ****, scared to shoot, when open can’t knock down open 3s consistently this year. Can’t break his man down off the dribble. Dude sucks. Only board that likes him is realgm bulls and that’s because of the strong Euro connection on here. Literally every where else Fans would say that Sato sucks ass.


He regressed a lot this season, particularly in shooting. I think you have to hope he rebounds back to form, but he's generally adequate but not great at everything. Good fundamental defender, but not elite athleticism to be a great defender. Good ball handler, passer, and shooter, but not really elite at any of those things. He can also probably fit into three positions on the floor when necessary.

I think he'd fit in pretty well as a rotation player on most teams if his shooting round back into form to where he was going to hit 38-40% from three. If he's going to shoot 32% again and also be gun shy, then he's a lot less valuable.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#24 » by MadGrinch » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:49 pm

sco wrote:
MadGrinch wrote:
sco wrote:If I were them, I would largely stay put to assess what they have talent-wise. The only core guy who has shown consistency in what he is, is Zach. While he isn't good enough to build a contender around, he's young enough to keep as a core piece - barring a trade opportunity for a guy they think is that centerpiece guy (which is unlikely).

Otto is likely here next season, and if he can play healthy and consistently, he may have value at the deadline.

Lauri has shown enough to warrant a closer look next season. Given his injuries and inconsistency, his trade value, IMO, is less than his option value to give him another shot.

WCJ, Coby, Hutch and Gafford all fall into the bucket of young guys who have shown flashes of very good NBA play, mixed with inconsistency that is expected from rookies/2nd year guys who have been injured for long stretches. They have all demonstrated a work ethic and professionalism.

We'll have our 1st rounder to sort out, too.

That's a lot to sort out for the new FO. Best case scenario is that one guy takes a big step forward and a couple others show they are capable starting talent next season.


all that may be true ...but new regimes of losing franchises almost always clean house .

there are exceptions to the rule of course but that doesn't appear to be the case here .

I'm not saying they won't, but unlike many losing franchises, this one is stocked with under 26 year old 1st rounders who have shown at least some potential - many coming off injury-riddled seasons. Given nearly universally low trade values for guys, the smart move would be to take the season to assess. AK has said as much about Lauri, and if you'd give your slow, poor shooting, disgruntled guy that rope, I think it would be a more general approach to others.


no actually most losing franchises are stocked with young players, now more than ever young teams lose because a young team today is much younger than a young team 20 or 30 years ago.

GM's and POBO's are people just like anyone else , if they have no attachments to the players, they are just assets ...but they do have attachments elsewhere , so most likely a nugget or 76er will find their way on the team by the end of next offseason.

its hard to get credit for building a roster , if they don't change it much...it may not be fair or honestly even smart always , but that is how it generally goes.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#25 » by MikeDC » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:56 pm

My postcard version of this is.
  • This team is bad now and the upside isn't high for the team as a whole, so in trade and contract negotiations, there's a price for all of them. Nobody is untouchable.
  • None of the players are what I'd consider foundational pieces who are going to turn us into a good team by themselves.
  • That being said, Coby (statistically similar at this point to Devin Booker, Jamal Murrary, De'Aaron Fox), Zach (statistically similar at this point in his career to Mitch Richmond, Rip Hamilton, Devin Booker), and Wendell Carter (with more uncertainty, somewhat similar players are Bam Adebayo, Derrick Favors, Andrew Bogut, Josh Smith, John Collins) are all guys who could be important parts of good teams. So, while I'd trade them, it'd have to be a clearly better deal. Zach is on a reasonable contract for his production and age, and the other two guys are young and have plenty of rookie contract left.
  • Lauri needs to be traded. He's the guy who's trade porridge is not too hot and not too cold. He's a guy that another team in the 5-14 range of the draft could look at and think, OK, he's a much surer thing and better fit than the guys I could take here". Do I want a guy like Tyrese Haliburton, who might be a total bust, or do I want Lauri. Some team will take Lauri. For us, I've seen enough to consider him unlikely to be in the same category as Zach/Coby/Wendell. His similar players results are along the lines of Keith Van Horn and Bobby Portis. There's a place for that kind of player, but it's not in the core of a team with a sizeable contract. On top of this, it's nearly time to work on a new contract with him. Given his production and the Bulls position, it makes sense to cash him in instead of lock him in.
  • Because, ultimately, there's only two ways to get those foundational pieces. Drafting well (which requires more draft picks) and cap space (which requires not locking in money to mediocre players). Keeping and re-signing Lauri works against both of those possibilities. I guess the third way is to get lucky with a trade (e.g. James Harden) but the strategy for this is the same... you need the same kind of draft picks and flexibility with salary to work that sort of trade.
  • Beyond that, about the best that can be done is to be opportunistic and aggressive in improving, and bias oneself against over-valuing mediocre players and tying yourself to mediocrity.

So the MikeDC wishlist for the Bulls is:
1. Fire Boylen and bring in a coach with a record of experience and success. Make him a true cooperative member of the team, not an employee or subordinate.
2. Be lavish in building out the assistants and development, scouting, and analytics staff.
3. Trade Lauri for a pick(s). For this draft, be in position to draft one of Hayes/Wiseman/Ball and Josh Green. If you can get a later pick and grab Pokusevski, do it. Pick up an extra 2nd rounder if possible and look for a guy like Butler or Dotson or Carey that's undervalued.
4. If we can make a trade to get out from under the dead money we'll be paying to Sato and Young then do it, but it's pretty unlikely right now, and this is less urgent since this guys will be relied on to play.

Best case scenario is a ten man rotation of:
1/2-Coby, Hayes
2- Zach
2/3 - Green, Sato
3- Porter
4- Young
4/5- Carter
5- Kornet, Gafford
+ Bench - Crutch, Arci, Felatio, Dotson/Butler, Carey/Azubuike/Killian Tillie
(+Pokusevski overseas for another year)
+ Huge cap space for next year.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#26 » by Bulls69 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:57 pm

MadGrinch wrote:Most GM's of losing teams clean house within the 1st year.

But heck just don't give away young talent for nothing the Bulls needs to get a real coach then go from their.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#27 » by Ccwatercraft » Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:59 pm

dougthonus wrote:
wonderboy2 wrote:Sato sucks as I can list plenty of vet min players better then him. Tell me something he does well. He not a great passer, can’t defend for ****, scared to shoot, when open can’t knock down open 3s consistently this year. Can’t break his man down off the dribble. Dude sucks. Only board that likes him is realgm bulls and that’s because of the strong Euro connection on here. Literally every where else Fans would say that Sato sucks ass.


He regressed a lot this season, particularly in shooting. I think you have to hope he rebounds back to form, but he's generally adequate but not great at everything. Good fundamental defender, but not elite athleticism to be a great defender. Good ball handler, passer, and shooter, but not really elite at any of those things. He can also probably fit into three positions on the floor when necessary.

I think he'd fit in pretty well as a rotation player on most teams if his shooting round back into form to where he was going to hit 38-40% from three. If he's going to shoot 32% again and also be gun shy, then he's a lot less valuable.


I am still a sato fan, I like the 3rd year on the deal, and as you said, he does everything well, just not spectacular. He can play and guard 3 positions, then again many of our guards did that, I just think he was better at it. I think he has a good feel for the game, not sure I would say high IQ, hard to tell when the season is fubar.

Imo when you have a flexible guy that doesnt drag you down you keep him.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#28 » by MikeDC » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:49 pm

Ccwatercraft wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
wonderboy2 wrote:Sato sucks as I can list plenty of vet min players better then him. Tell me something he does well. He not a great passer, can’t defend for ****, scared to shoot, when open can’t knock down open 3s consistently this year. Can’t break his man down off the dribble. Dude sucks. Only board that likes him is realgm bulls and that’s because of the strong Euro connection on here. Literally every where else Fans would say that Sato sucks ass.


He regressed a lot this season, particularly in shooting. I think you have to hope he rebounds back to form, but he's generally adequate but not great at everything. Good fundamental defender, but not elite athleticism to be a great defender. Good ball handler, passer, and shooter, but not really elite at any of those things. He can also probably fit into three positions on the floor when necessary.

I think he'd fit in pretty well as a rotation player on most teams if his shooting round back into form to where he was going to hit 38-40% from three. If he's going to shoot 32% again and also be gun shy, then he's a lot less valuable.


I am still a sato fan, I like the 3rd year on the deal, and as you said, he does everything well, just not spectacular. He can play and guard 3 positions, then again many of our guards did that, I just think he was better at it. I think he has a good feel for the game, not sure I would say high IQ, hard to tell when the season is fubar.

Imo when you have a flexible guy that doesnt drag you down you keep him.


What does it mean to like the third year of his deal? That you are going to pay him several million bucks while he goes and plays somewhere else?

Also, how about some Analysis as to why his shooting took a dive from his career numbers. To me, this is a clear example where it doesn’t make much sense to put the “blame” on a player.

Like, the way it’s written out here makes it sound like it was just laziness or something. As if Sato suddenly forgot how to shoot? Or didn’t practice. If he’s going to be a failure as a shooter, why keep him around. But why didn’t he shoot well? There are some obvious reasons that have nothing at all to do with him as a player.

Sato is not a rookie or anything. He came to this team with a track record of what sort of guy he was. And that is, as an offensive player, a flexible but very passive and low-usage guy. Not a very athletic guy. A guy who needs opportunities created for him. That’s the context in which he was a “good shooter”.

He’s the same guy he always was. The situation around him changed.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#29 » by Ccwatercraft » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:30 am

MikeDC wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
He regressed a lot this season, particularly in shooting. I think you have to hope he rebounds back to form, but he's generally adequate but not great at everything. Good fundamental defender, but not elite athleticism to be a great defender. Good ball handler, passer, and shooter, but not really elite at any of those things. He can also probably fit into three positions on the floor when necessary.

I think he'd fit in pretty well as a rotation player on most teams if his shooting round back into form to where he was going to hit 38-40% from three. If he's going to shoot 32% again and also be gun shy, then he's a lot less valuable.


I am still a sato fan, I like the 3rd year on the deal, and as you said, he does everything well, just not spectacular. He can play and guard 3 positions, then again many of our guards did that, I just think he was better at it. I think he has a good feel for the game, not sure I would say high IQ, hard to tell when the season is fubar.

Imo when you have a flexible guy that doesnt drag you down you keep him.


What does it mean to like the third year of his deal? That you are going to pay him several million bucks while he goes and plays somewhere else?

Also, how about some Analysis as to why his shooting took a dive from his career numbers. To me, this is a clear example where it doesn’t make much sense to put the “blame” on a player.

Like, the way it’s written out here makes it sound like it was just laziness or something. As if Sato suddenly forgot how to shoot? Or didn’t practice. If he’s going to be a failure as a shooter, why keep him around. But why didn’t he shoot well? There are some obvious reasons that have nothing at all to do with him as a player.

Sato is not a rookie or anything. He came to this team with a track record of what sort of guy he was. And that is, as an offensive player, a flexible but very passive and low-usage guy. Not a very athletic guy. A guy who needs opportunities created for him. That’s the context in which he was a “good shooter”.

He’s the same guy he always was. The situation around him changed.


Yes, i like the 3rd year.

As far as analysis I'll leave that to others, too hard on my thumbs except to say that I like him and think hes a solid all around player.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#30 » by wonderboy2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:43 am

Ccwatercraft wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
wonderboy2 wrote:Sato sucks as I can list plenty of vet min players better then him. Tell me something he does well. He not a great passer, can’t defend for ****, scared to shoot, when open can’t knock down open 3s consistently this year. Can’t break his man down off the dribble. Dude sucks. Only board that likes him is realgm bulls and that’s because of the strong Euro connection on here. Literally every where else Fans would say that Sato sucks ass.


He regressed a lot this season, particularly in shooting. I think you have to hope he rebounds back to form, but he's generally adequate but not great at everything. Good fundamental defender, but not elite athleticism to be a great defender. Good ball handler, passer, and shooter, but not really elite at any of those things. He can also probably fit into three positions on the floor when necessary.

I think he'd fit in pretty well as a rotation player on most teams if his shooting round back into form to where he was going to hit 38-40% from three. If he's going to shoot 32% again and also be gun shy, then he's a lot less valuable.


I am still a sato fan, I like the 3rd year on the deal, and as you said, he does everything well, just not spectacular. He can play and guard 3 positions, then again many of our guards did that, I just think he was better at it. I think he has a good feel for the game, not sure I would say high IQ, hard to tell when the season is fubar.

Imo when you have a flexible guy that doesnt drag you down you keep him.

But that’s the Urban legend around here that Sato can defend 3 positions. Hell cant even defend one position. Stacey King, Kendall Gill, Goff, all called putting Satos defense. He was one of the bulls worst perimeter defenders last season. He got burned guarding point guards, overpowered by most small forwards. Lavine had to take the tough assignments when Dunn went down.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#31 » by beeshma » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:00 am

Loclown wrote:Do you think the new regime will sweep out under performing youngsters before their value decreases more? I've seen talk of moving vets, but I'd be ok w moving Lauri or Carter too. I feel they won't become stars and might be able to bring back proven quality now.


I am absolutely in favor of moving any of our players except Coby White. We should also keep Gafford to give him more evaluation.

- Zach should be moved because he can get us a first round pick back
- Lari is fool's gold. That means we can get a top 5 protected 1st round pick for him because some GM has fallen in love with him.
- WCJ doesn't have an assertive mindset. He is worse than Carlos Boozer on offense and with his limited size he will prove to be just as ineffective in the playoffs as Booze was. His defense can be provided by an $8 million journeyman PF. We can probably get a top 12 protected 1st round pick for him.
- Dunn's horrible offense means he is only capable of being a limited minutes option for defense. We could probably get two 2nd rounders for him. I'll take it.
- Sato provides 3 million in production for 10 million payroll. He is probably unmoveable. Even a playoff team couldn't count on him as he hasn't proven he can deliver in playoffs.
- Otto will be overpaid for a "veteran leader" for a bottom feeding team like the Bulls. Some playoff team will need him as an injury replacement for a playoff run. Move him for a 1st round pick, even if we have to take a little dead salary back in return.

Every other player should be moved. They all suck. Denzel, Arch, Kornet, Shaq, Felciano. Blech!

Our strategy should be to acquire lots of picks, and scout the best development league players. We should also be looking to acquire risky assets with high upside such as these recent examples: Markelle Fultz. Michael Porter Jr. Bol Bol. Josh Jackson. Etc.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#32 » by dougthonus » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:56 am

wonderboy2 wrote:But that’s the Urban legend around here that Sato can defend 3 positions. Hell cant even defend one position. Stacey King, Kendall Gill, Goff, all called putting Satos defense. He was one of the bulls worst perimeter defenders last season. He got burned guarding point guards, overpowered by most small forwards. Lavine had to take the tough assignments when Dunn went down.


Sato had a +.87 DRPM and +.2 defensive Raptor which are the two best defensive statistics that exist. I wouldn't say he's a great defender, but he's average to slightly above average. His weakness defensively is foot speed and his strengths are fundamentals and length.
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Re: Clean House? 

Post#33 » by wickywack » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:56 pm

IMO, it's a safe assumption the Bulls will clean house over the next 1-2 years. These players have varying perceived values across the league. Some - like Lavine - might have perceived values all over the place just as they do on this board. Some GMs probably covet Lavine. Some GMs probably wouldn't touch him.

I'd think GarPax value these guys on the high side. After all, they made the decision to acquire them in the first place and might still feel emotionally invested in them.

I wouldn't assume AK leans one way or the other. He has no reason to think of them particularly highly (or lowly). He has no motivation to justify past moves (e.g., the Butler trade).

For any player on this roster, all it should take is on GM out there that values that player more than AK and has the assets to get a deal done.

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